Philly Fed Survey Soars To 12-Month Highs, Jumps Most In A Decade

Regional Fed surveys were almost uniformly weak in June, and given The Fed's seeming desperation to cut rates, one would expect that weakness to be continuing.  But, oh no! The 'soft' survey from The Philly Fed smashed expectations (+5.0), rising to 12-month highs at 21.8 from 0.3 in June.

This is the biggest MoM jump since June 2009!

Under the hood, everything exploded higher...

  • July prices paid rose to 16.1 vs 12.9

  • New orders rose to 18.9 vs 8.3

  • Employment rose to 30.0 vs 15.4

  • Shipments rose to 24.9 vs 16.6

  • Delivery time fell to 15.0 vs 15.6

  • Inventories rose to 8.1 vs 2.4

  • Prices received rose to 9.5 vs 0.6

  • Unfilled orders fell to 3.7 vs 10.2

  • Average workweek rose to 23.0 vs 7.3

  • Six-month outlook rose to 38.0 vs 21.4

  • Six-month outlook for capex rose to 36.9 vs 28.0

In fact, employment is at a record high for the survey!!

Do these 'soft' surveys have any value whatsoever when they can swing from 3 year lows to 1 year highs over the space of one month?

Finally, there's the "special question" which suggests everyone is optimistic about the future...

So why are we cutting rates again?