Chicago PMI Plunges To Lowest Since November 2009, Biggest Miss To Expectations Since September 2009

... the only question is whether the number,which printed at 56.2, down from 62.2, and missing expectations of 60.0, is horrible enough to send stocks soaring. Based on some of the core numbers it may be: the headline nuimber was the worst since November 2009, the miss was the biggest since September 2009, Production of 57.1 was the lowest since September 2009, New Orders slide to 57.4 from 63.3, Supplier deliveries lowest since September 2011, and so on. The only good print was employment which mysteriously rose from 56.3 to 58.7, just in time for the NFP print to come really, really ugly. On, and Joe LaVorgna was at 61.0: way to earn that bonus Joe. ISM downward revisions to come. But not from Joe- look for upward revisions there. Finally, comment #6 from the PMI respondents says it all: "Despite all of the rhetoric to the contrary, it looks like the air got let out of the balloon."


The most interesting part from the release, the survey respondents. #4 FTMFW. #6 and #9 are pretty good too.

  1. Seems there is a calm out there.
  2. Extensive off-shoring of manufacturing not without unseen cost. Apron strings are much harder to
    cut than originally anticipated. Improvements are often slow and painful. Yields far lower as a
    result. Tight inventories at suppliers continue to constrain inventory turn improvements by
    increasing risk of spike induced outages.
  3. High oil cost is creating a cost burden for inbound freight & higher material conversion costs. A
    sustained increase in the cost of oil (or staying high at the current cost) will have a negative
    impact on our business and the economy in general because goods and services will cost more and
    the population will have less to spend on those goods and services. Much of the oil rise seems to
    be speculation and is rooted in the fear of lack of supply rather than true supply and demand.
  4. Same, same.
  5. Generally seeing a positive trend in orders.
    Some supplier lead times are decreasing. Their backlog is decreasing as is ours.
    Automotive related orders have greatly increased from one year ago, but other areas of business
    appear to be softening.
  6. Despite all of the rhetoric to the contrary, it looks like the air got let out of the balloon.
  7. New orders down a little this month but testing & quoting is up. We are expecting a lot of orders
    in the near future.
  8. China inflation to hit in second Qtr.
  9. Lending is picking up but only to borrowers with stellar credit.


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