Export Miracle Over!

We have discussed the 'field-of-dreams'-like dreamscape that manufacturers have been living in for the last year at length as 'if-we-build-it' inventories are stacked to the ceiling relative to sales. Today's Global PMI data from Markit Economics provides confirming evidence that the miracle of self-fulfilling exporting is rapidly coming to an end.

From their report: "Conditions in the global manufacturing sector remained broadly stagnant in October. Levels of production and new orders fell slightly over the month, while new export orders declined at the quickest pace for almost two-and-a-half years."


And drilling down into individual country export orders, it seems clear that supply-siders the world over will be scrambling to adjust forecasts:

It seems that the rolling over of forward EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies is starting to get fundamental backing from macro-based forecasts also - hardly the setting for multiple-expansion in an equity market facing so many unknown unknowns.

Source: Markit Economics