June Non-Farm Payrolls +80,000, Missing Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.2%

The June Non-farm Payroll number of 80,000 comes below expectations of 100,000. Private payrolls miss even worse, at 84,000 below consensus of 106,000. Unemployment rate prints at 8.2%, inline with expectations. U-6, or broad unemployment rose from 14.8% to 14.9%. According to the household survey, jobs rose by 156,000 S/A and 1,387,000 Not seasonally adjusted. The worst news is that the number is not bad enough for more NEW QE immediately.

Some details from the Establishment survey:

Total nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June (+80,000).  In the second quarter, employment growth averaged 75,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 226,000 for the first quarter of the year. Slower job growth in the second quarter occurred in most major industries. (See table B-1.)


Professional and business services added 47,000 jobs in June, with temporary help services accounting for 25,000 of the increase. Employment also rose in management and technical consulting services (+9,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment in professional and business services has grown by 1.5 million since its most recent lowpoint in September 2009.

 

Employment in manufacturing continued to edge up in June (+11,000).Growth in the second quarter averaged 10,000 per month, compared with an average of 41,000 per month during the first quarter. In June, employment increased in motor vehicles and parts (+7,000) and infabricated metal products (+5,000).

 

Employment continued to trend up in health care (+13,000) and wholesale trade (+9,000) in June.

 

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little or no change.

 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in June. The manufacturing workweek  edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime was 3.3 hours  for the fifth consecutive month. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

Those not in the labor force rose by 34,000 to 87,992, the second highest ever, although good enough to keep the participation rate unchanged at 63.8%, and above the recent April low of 63.6%.

The June Seasonal adjustment was -1,028,000, just as expected. 2012 monthly seasonal adjustments.

The June Birth-Death adjustment added 124,000, modestly less than in June months of the prior two years.