Another poll, another blow (for Obama). While it is no surprise that the president's rating has tumbled to record lows over the past few weeks, courtesy of his inability to fix the unemployment problem, and to fix the bank loan situation (whether that is a function of lack of supply or demand is unclear, but it is broken dammit, the punchliners will say), according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll, "a majority of Americans now oppose giving President Obama a second term." And while this means that our chart which calculates how many jobs Obama will have to create by the end of his second mandate to get back to December 2007 unemployment will have to be scrapped, it still leaves the question open of which Republican is more qualified than Obama to preside over the Wall Street bribes collection agency. Oh and running the country every now and then.
By 51%-41%, respondents in October picked "someone new deserves a chance" over Obama "deserves to be re-elected." Among independents, it was 54%-36%. Back in September, the readings were 50%-44% and 53%-38%, respectively.
Americans are frustrated over the continued sluggish economy, says Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducted the poll. As Vice President Joe Biden recently admitted, after nearly three years in power, the Obama administration owns the economy.
Half of Americans give Obama poor or unacceptable marks in creating jobs and economic growth vs. 24% who say he's doing well.
Among independents, it's 51%-18%. 33% of swing voters give him an "F" vs. just 2% who give an "A".
That underscores Obama's intensity problem. In addition to his deteriorating support among independents, just 77% of Democrats say Obama deserves re-election while 88% of Republicans say he doesn't.
The Occupy Wall Street movement, while directed at fat cat bankers, also reflects broad dissatisfaction among Obama's political base.
Who does IBD foresee on the other side:
Still, while Obama may be losing by double digits to "somebody else" ultimately he will face off against a real rival. The GOP nomination race is fluid, with Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain the current top contenders.
If the election is a referendum on Obama and the economy, he faces an uphill fight. So he will try to convince voters that his eventual opponent is unacceptable.
Gee, no mention of Ron Paul. How original.
As for the poll itself...
The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index fell 0.2 point in October to 46.3. That's the eighth straight month below the neutral 50 level, signaling disapproval. Obama hit a personal low of 45.1 in August, near the peak of the debt ceiling standoff. The IBD/TIPP poll of 909 adults was conducted from Oct. 1-5, with an error of +/- 3.3 percentage points
Whether Obama stays or goes, one thing is certain: America will, as it always has, elect precisely the president it so richly deserves.