Swiss Franc Surges To New Record Against Dollar, Peripheral Spreads Blow Out As Schizophrenic Market Is In Risk Off Mode

The perfect storm in risk off continues, as not only have European peripheral spreads once again commenced their trek wider, but FX flight to Swiss safety has resumed with a vengeance, with the USDCHF tumbling to a new all time low just above the 79 handle. The EURCHF is just above lows set a week earlier, following Moody's cutting Greece to Ca from Caa1, with a developing outlook, and the resulting final outcome of which will be a default of some nature. Also weaker are various peripheral spreads with Spanish, Portuguese and Italian Bund spreads and CDS pushing wider this morning. Another notable development is that Austria has decided to skip its August auction supposedly as "funding has been advanced already" although we all know what the real reason is. In Asia, markets closed broadly lower and the USDJPY continues to trade near all time lows, save for the flash crash plunge from March 17. According to Lee Hardman of BOTM-UFJ, "verbal jawboning by Japanese authorities of concerns over  yen strength unlikely to be backed up by actions to weaken  yen." Any attempt likely to be unsuccessful at present, he adds. The bottom line, which incidentally is always cash, and in this case the amount of it held in Greek banks can be seen by the chart below. We fully expect Greek bank deposit to decline by another €5 billion in the most recent period when the data is released.



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