Bloomberg's odds of winning the nomination, then presidency, are high and rising. Let's investigate why.
Spotlight Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders, the radical left-wing Socialist darling is widely thought to be way in the lead.
Nate Silver at 538 says Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely.
Model takeaway No. 1: Sen. Bernie Sanders is the most likely person to win the Democratic nomination.
Model takeaway No. 2: The chance of there being no pledged delegate majority — which could potentially lead to a contested convention — is high and increasing.
"The model needs post-New Hampshire polling to make sense of a chaotic race."
Indeed, the polls on Real Clear Politics are so stale as to be seem useless.
Nevada Caucus Feb 22: Latest Poll January 11
South Carolina Primary: Latest Poll February 2
Super Tuesday March 3 State Polls
California Latest: January 27
Texas Latest: January 30
North Carolina Latest: February 5
Massachusetts Latest: September 5
Maine Latest: October 21
Virginia Latest: September 15
Utah Latest: January 22
Colorado Latest: August 19
Oklahoma Latest: July 27
Problem With Models
The problem with models is they cannot think.
The polls are very stale, but if you dig, you can see some trends that are very easy to overlook. Let's hone in on Texas and North Carolina.
North Carolina Polls
While all the other candidates were spending money on ads and campaigning in Iowa, then New Hampshire, and now Nevada and South Carolina, Bloomberg has been running uncontested ads in places like Texas and North Carolina.
That is how you jump from 0% to 5% to 9% to 16% in Texas.
That is how you jump from 0% to 8% to 15% (average of overlapping polls) in North Carolina.
What's Not Reflected?
Neither Iowa or New Hampshire is reflected in those polls. Nor is the rise of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar.
I expect contributions for both to rise and contributions for Warren and Biden to dive.
But Buttigieg and Klobuchar are both going to have to spend a considerable amount of money just to compete in Nevada and South Carolina, two very unimportant states delegate-wise.
Meanwhile, and unseen, Bloomberg is running ads in numerous places in an attempt to win blacks, Biden's strong point.
Consider the February 10 Quinnipiac University Poll.
- Biden went from 21% to 17%, topping long ago at 30%, a very poor trend.
- Sanders went from 15% to 25%, his peak. This is a good trend.
- Warren went from 28% to 14%, her low, a very poor trend.
- Buttigieg went from 10% to 10%, topping at 16%, consistent mediocrity.
- Bloomberg went from 0% to 15%, his peak and an amazingly good trend.
It's hardly a surprise that radicals supporting Warren would gravitate to the next most radical candidate, Sanders.
The big surprise is that those backing Buttigieg want next to nothing to do with Sanders.
What About Race and Education?
Bloomberg tops Sanders in appealing to blacks and to moderates.
Sanders appeals to the liberals and the uneducated (an overlapping group for sure).
Bloomberg Becoming More Popular With Black Voters
Please consider Why Bloomberg is Becoming More Popular With Black Voters
As former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s past comments endorsing stop-and-frisk are reposted online by critics, new polling shows his presidential campaign is increasingly finding support among black voters. Bloomberg is currently the second-most popular Democratic candidate among black voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Monday, with his support jumping to 22% from 7% late last month. This corresponds with a significant decrease in black voters backing former Vice President Joe Biden, who is currently beating out Bloomberg in black support by five percentage points.
This trend may seem odd, given that Bloomberg is a former Republican who won only one-quarter of black voters in his last mayoral campaign. And, while his record of aggressive policing in black and Latino communities may not be widely known outside of New York, recent controversy surrounding a video of a speech Bloomberg gave at the Aspen Institute in 2015 defending that record could lead to the issue having more of an impact. "Ninety-five percent of your murders and murderers and murder victims fit one M.O.,” he said in the video. “You can just take the description and Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops. They are male minorities (ages) 15 to 25."
On Thursday, Bloomberg apologized for those comments, saying “It’s just not the way that I think, and it doesn’t reflect what I do every day.” He initially apologized for his support of stop-and-frisk right before the launch of his campaign in November of last year, though he had been defending the practice just 10 months earlier.
Soon after the video began circulating, Rep. Gregory Meeks, who is chairman of the Queens County Democratic Party, joined two other members of the Congressional Black Caucus to officially endorse Bloomberg. Another black elected official from New York came out in support on Thursday as well: Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren. Outside of his home state, Bloomberg has racked up endorsements from black elected officials, including Mayors Michael Nutter of Philadelphia, London Breed of San Francisco and Michael Tubbs of Stockton, California, and Rep. Bobby Rush of Illinois, who is a former Black Panther.
“For the African American community, it’s two things: one, beating Trump, and, two, progress and success – that we do admire people who are successful,” Meeks – who is now the co-chair of the campaign’s Mike for Black America National Leadership Council – told City & State. Meeks noted that Bloomberg could contrast his self-made wealth with Trump’s.
Former Rep. Charlie Rangel, from Harlem, also praised Bloomberg’s work on gun violence as a plus for candidacy. He is still enthusiastically backing Biden but named Bloomberg as the best second choice. “Nobody that I can think of individually has done more to try to ban illegal guns and that is a big one for most of us,” he told City & State.
Overthinking the Moderate Split
Bernie has very consistent, loyal, and enthusiastic support. Once people are in his camp, they tend to stay there.
But the polls show he is not good at bringing new people into his clan.
One factor I keep reading about is the 4-way moderate split between Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg.
But what good has it actually done Sanders?
For all the "Bernie! Bernie!" brouhaha, Sanders actually trails Buttigieg in delegates.
Looking ahead, will Buttigieg be able to raise enough funds to compete with Bloomberg?
If and when Buttigieg drops out, it does not look likely Sanders would be the beneficiary.
I am a big fan of Nate Silver, but models don't think and can't think.
I see this all the time in economic analysis in which the model cannot adjust for extreme weather.
In this case, there is no history in which a Billionaire sat out the first 4 primaries and caucuses while pursuing this kind of ad campaign strategy.
Humans can think but their models depend on history that has never been modeled because it has never happened before.
Silver was was off in 2016 and I repeatedly said so.
I believe it's happening again.
So I placed my modest bet today: I Just Made the Max Predictit Bet on Bloomberg
[ZH: And looking at the betting lines, it's clear the trend is Bloomberg's friend]
[ZH: However, overall, the money line still signals strongly for a Trump victory in November and has shown no signs of shifting despite the surge in Bloomberg's betting and polls]
Place your bets.