Last week, pollster Nate Silver was so confident in a Biden win that he suggested the only way Trump is reelected would be through a 'major polling error' or cheating.
Nate Silver is spreading unfounded speculation that the only way Trump can win is to steal the election. This is irresponsible and will ensure a Trump victory isn’t accepted by Democrats.— @amuse (@amuse) October 27, 2020
This weekend, however, Silver shoehorned a giant caveat into weeks of confidently proclaiming a Biden win: Pennsylvania.
"Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It's 5 points," Silver told ABC's "This Week" (sporting a new 'battle beard') adding that if Trump were to win, "it would come down to Pennsylvania."
Silver then sets the expectation for an unfair vote, saying "Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There's lots of stuff going on."
And then, Silver says that if Biden doesn't win PA, he'll become the underdog.
"Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn't quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. ... But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog."
Just days ahead of November 3, the @FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast has Joe Biden with a 90 in 100 chance of winning the Electoral College.@NateSilver538 breaks down the forecast: https://t.co/5MmblAJP8o pic.twitter.com/wrDdKLFdA6— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) November 1, 2020
On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed President Trump - its first GOP endorsement in nearly 50 years.
BOOM! Philadelphia Police and Fire Fighters Union endorses Trump! They have never endorsed a Republican Presidential Candidate.— FloridaDude297 (@FloridaDude297) November 1, 2020
Meanwhile, Trump drew massive crowds across Pennsylvania, including Butler County where tens of thousands of supporters turned out in what the Epoch Times described as "a scene more reminiscent of a rock concert than a political event."
Reacting to the crowds, PA Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) said: "Donald Trump is doing things that have never been done in Pennsylvania politics in terms of the raw barnstorming across small county Pennsylvania," adding "It’s hard to predict with certainty how that’s going to activate not only his base of voters from 2016, but also those that sat it out, too."
Fetterman then sounded the alarm to fellow Democrats who are pinning their hopes on Democratic nominee Joe Biden winning the Keystone State. Pennsylvania and its 20 Electoral College votes would provide a significant boost toward winning the 270 needed to win the White House.
“I’m not saying Donald Trump is going to win Pennsylvania, but what I am saying is he’s doing everything that he can to maximize his chances,” he said. -Epoch Times
She is with Politico. This is not MAGA propaganda.— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) November 1, 2020
Can’t fake a crowd like that. But you *can* make sure you show up and get every vote in.
Every Vote Matters.
Get Them In.
Silver has given Trump a 10% chance of winning, down from the 28.6% chance he gave Trump vs. Clinton in 2016.
And here's Nate's giant hedge: