The odds of a policy mistake are rising and the safety valve of easy money for the equity market is limited as well. And if history proves to be a reliable guide the equity market peak will occur in Q1 2020.
"It will be very difficult if not impossible to repeat such impressive gains in 2020 if our non-consensus view on the US falling into a recession proves to be correct and if a trade truce does not last as we anticipate." - Rabobank
What was the price tag for this market "calm"? Just about $414 billion, consisting of $256 billion in repo injections ($211.4 term and $44.3 in overnight) and $157.5 bn in bill purchases.