• CalibratedConfidence
    08/30/2015 - 08:34
    Luckily we didn't hear anything more about Vomiting Camel formations but there was certainly an ample amount of "it's priced in" blaring in the background.

Archive

August 30th, 2015

Tyler Durden's picture

The End Of "The Permanent Lie" Looms Large





For the moment, to paraphrase Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the “permanent lie [has become] the only safe form of existence”.

But the world cannot postpone, indefinitely, dealing decisively with the economic, resource management, social and political challenges we face.

 

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Crisis in Which Central Banks Lose Control Has Already Begun





We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work.  They haven’t. 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Austrian Economics Is Now Equivalent To Terrorism Thanks To Latest Islamic State "Gold Standard" Propaganda Clip





What better way to mute demands for a return to sound money and the gold standard, than by making them equivalent to jihadist terrorism? Why, there are none, which may explain the hilarious appearance of the "Islamic State's" latest 55-minutes pro gold standard YouTube clip, which is nothing but a crash course in Austrian economics.

 

Marc To Market's picture

Three Drivers of the Capital Markets in the Week Ahead





The stability of global capital markets, theECB meeitng and US employment data.  Risk seems to be greater than discounted that Sept rate hike is still a distinct possibility.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

The Value-At-Risk Fiasco





VAR (invented at J.P. Morgan well before both the global financial crisis and their entertaining London Whale drubbing) is an expression of the largest possible loss, contained within a specified confidence interval.  We can for example explore the history of worst weekly losses in the S&P, for each month starting more than 5 years ago in January 2010 (and through May 2015).  A total of 65 months.  We can set a probability tolerance of just over 6%, and state that the probability of seeing a loss greater than this VAR should be less than or equal to ~6% (or 1 in 16 months). 

 

CalibratedConfidence's picture

No CNBC, It's Not Priced In





Luckily we didn't hear anything more about Vomiting Camel formations but there was certainly an ample amount of "it's priced in" blaring in the background.

 

August 29th

Tyler Durden's picture

Citigroup Chief Economist Thinks Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now





Having recently explained (in great detail) why QE4 (and 5, 6 & 7) were inevitable (despite the protestations of all central planners, except for perhaps Kocharlakota - who never met an economy he didn't want to throw free money at), we found it fascinating that no lessor purveyor of the status quo's view of the world - Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter - that a global recession is imminent and nothing but a major blast of fiscal spending financed by outright "helicopter" money from the central banks will avert the deepening crisis. Faced with China's 'Quantitative Tightening', the economist who proclaimed "gold is a 6000-year old bubble" and cash should be banned, concludes ominously, "everybody will be adversely affected."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks





The virtuous circle that has sustained the dollar and buoyed USD assets for decades has definitively been broken. Now, with China's Treasury liquidation serving to exacerbate the pressure from the demise of the petrodollar, it's critical to take stock of accumulated petrodollar reserves in order to understand how large the unwind could ultimately be in a worst case scenario. As it turns out, narrowly focusing on official FX reserves could understate the size of petrodollar accumulation by some $2.5 trillion.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Dis-Integrating America





To many Americans, even many who did not vote for him, the election of Barack Obama seemed to hold out the promise that our racial divide could be healed by a black president. Even Obama’s supporters must concede it did not happen, though we would, again, argue angrily over why.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Did Tim Cook Lie To Save Apple Stock: The "Channel Checks" Paint A Very Gloomy Picture





Is AAPL the next AOL, and is Tim Cook the next Thorsten Heins? It all depends on China: if the world's most populous nation can get its stock market, its economy and its currency under control, then this too shall pass. The problem is that if, as many increasingly suggest, China has lost control of all three. At that point anyone who thought they got a great deal when buying AAPL at $92 will have far better opportunities to dollar-cost average far, far lower.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Stagnant US Economic Growth Explained (In 1 Cartoon)





Presented with no comment...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite Being A 'Pet Rock', The Premium For Physical Bullion Is Exploding





While status quo-huggers are all too happy to point out gold and silver's lack of utter exuberance amid this week's carnage, perhaps they need to re-comprehend the difference between a heavily manipulated 'paper' market and the surging demand for physical precious metals that is evident in the 20-plus percent premium - and rising - being paid for silver bullion currently...

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Ayn Rand & Murray Rothbard: Diverse Champions Of Liberty





No one should attempt to treat Ayn Rand and Murray N. Rothbard as uncomplicated and rather similar defenders of the free society although they have more in common than many believe.

 
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