Archive

March 27th, 2014

Home Sales Plunge Most In 3 Years, Drop 8th Months In A Row

Must be the weather... (though if you want to believe that, do not look at the regional breakdowns)... Pending home sales fell 10.2% YoY - the worst in 3 years (notably worse than the 9% drop expected by the meteorologists in the economics departments of the big banks). This is the 8th month in a row of home sales drops (pre-weather).

Stocks Tumble To Red For 2014, Biotech Hammering Continues

For the first time in over 6 weeks, all major US equity indices are in the red for 2014. Early-year leaders Nasdaq and Russell are being crushed by the battering of Biotechs and monkey-hammering of Momo names. Since FOMC, Momos are down 14% and Biotech down 12%. The high-growth hope is fading and nowhere is that more evident than the tumble in 30Y yields - now at 10 month lows. The hopes that financials would lead have nw left as they are also in the red post-FOMC (post-CCAR hope).

Half Of Uninsured Say They Plan To Remain Uninsured

With the hours counting down to the latest deadline for open enrollment for Obamacare coverage, it appears the administration needs more keg-standing bro's, easy women, and twerking Richard Simmons to get the message out. A new survey by Kaiser finds 6 out of 10 unaware of the deadline. When reminded of the mandate and the deadline, half of those without coverage as of mid-March say they think they will remain uninsured.

Stocks Fade Early Pump As Good News Is Bad News

For the 5th day in a row, US equities have levitated in the pre-open and faded away quickly soon after. Today is different though in 2 ways: the pump was de minimus and the dump is early. It seems the initial claims good news is indeed bad news for stock investors. Treasuries continue to bear flatten once again as 30Y is rallying and 5Y selling off further; gold is steady at around $1300 and the USD is rallying modestly. Copper and oil prices are rising. European stocks are also faltering with DAX giving up all its early gains.

Final Q4 2013 GDP Misses Expectations, Rises 2.6% Annualized - Full Breakdown

And so the various estimates of Q4 GDP have made an almost full circle: starting at 3.22% in the first forecast, plunging to 2.38% in the second, and finally settling at 2.63%, a miss from the expected 2.7%. This is down from 4.1% recorded in Q3 which however as everyone knows by now was purely due to a unprecedented, record inventory build up.

Initial Jobless Claims Drop To 4-Month Lows

Initial jobless claims dropped 10k this week to 311k - the lowest in 4 months - offering little bad-news-is-good-news hope for renewed un-tapering to pump stocks back up. Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania (all weather-related) saw the biggest drops in claims in the prior week. Continuing claims also fell 53k to 2.82 million, its lowest in 3 months.

 

And Now The Real Economic Pain Begins As IMF Unleashes $27BN Bailout In "Near Bankrupt" Ukraine

Gazprom must really be demanding payment on overdue Ukraine invoices which is the only way we can explain the unprecedented speed with which the IMF has managed to cobble together a makeshift bailout package of up to $27 billion - the bulk of which will naturally go to Russia - which has just made Ukraine its latest vassal state. There are of course, conditions: "Approval is “expected in April, following the authorities’ adoption of a strong and comprehensive package of prior actions aiming to stabilize the economy and create conditions for sustained growth,” IMF mission chief Nikolay Gueorguiev said in the statement. Disbursement may start next month, he said at a news conference in Kiev." And then comes the hyperinflation: "Monetary policy will target domestic price stability while maintaining a flexible exchange rate. This will help eliminate external imbalances, improve competitiveness, support exports and growth, and facilitate the gradual rebuilding of international reserves. The NBU plans to introduce an inflation targeting framework over the next twelve months to firmly anchor inflation expectations"...  Very high inflation targeting.

Frontrunning: March 27

  • BOE to Sign Agreement With China on Yuan Clearing Next Week (BBG)
  • U.S. law firm plans to bring suit against Boeing, Malaysia Airlines (Reuters)
  • Citigroup Fraud Stings Mexico Star as Medina-Mora Chased (BBG)
  • Fraternity Chief Feared for Son as Hazings Spurred JPMorgan Snub (BBG)
  • UBS suspends six more forex traders (FT)
  • Goodbye CSCO Q1 EPS: China to strengthen Internet security after U.S. spying report (Reuters)
  • Good luck: Spain Banks With $55 Billion of Property Seek Deals (BBG)
  • Citic Pacific Said to Plan About $4 Billion Public Offering (BBG)
  • Yahoo Japan to buy eAccess from SoftBank for $3.2 billion (Reuters)
  • "Whatever it takes" to talk down the Euro: Euro, peripheral bond yields fall on ECB easing debate (Reuters)

Another Morning Futures Pump - Will There Be A Fifth Consecutive Dump?

After tumbling overnight to just around 101.80, the USDJPY managed to stage a remarkable levitating comeback, rising all the way to 102.3, which in turn succeeded in closing the Nikkei 225 at the highs, up 1% after tumbling in early trade. The Shanghai Composite was not quite as lucky and as fear continue to weigh about a collapse in China's credit pipeline, the SHCOMP was down more than 0.8% while the PBOC withdreww even more net liquidity via repos than it did last week, at CNY 98 billion vs CNY 48 billion. That said, this morning will be the fifth consecutive overnight levitation in futures, which likely will once more surge right into the US market open to intraday highs, at which point slowy at first, then rapidly, fade again as the pattern has seemingly been set into algo random access memory. Which in a market devoid of human traders is all that matters.

March 26th

A First Look At New Report On Crony Capitalism – Trillions In Corporate Welfare

Cronyism for the super wealthy starts at the very top with the Federal Reserve System, which consists of topdown economic central planners who manipulate the money supply and hence interest rates for the benefit of the financial oligarch class. It then trickles down through lobbyist money into the halls of Washington D.C., and ultimately filters down to local governments and then the average person on the street gaming welfare or disability. As such, we now live in a culture of corruption and theft that is pervasive throughout society. As a new report finds, "You can’t reform welfare programs for the poor until you’ve gotten Daddy Warbucks off the dole. Voters will insist on that - as well they should."

Diamonds Are A Chinese Smuggler's Best Friend

With copper, iron-ore, soybeans, and nickel all tough to carry when you need liquidity from your commodity-financing deals; it appears the Chinese people have turned to more spectaculr methods of moving 'wealth'. As The South China Morning Post reports, just week after a man was stopped at the China-Hong-Kong border with 4 kilograms of gold in his shoes, customs officers caught a man smuggling more than 7000 diamonds in plastic bags in his underwear. The tell, officers noticed he was walking in a pculair manner.