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Reports now suggest the string of sex assaults allegedly perpetrated by asylum seekers on New Year's Eve wasn't confined to Germany as women in Switzerland, Austria, and Finland say they experienced similar attacks to those which occurred in Cologne. Germany now says it's prepared to deport those responsible, while little by little, Angela Merkel's rheotric is shifting.

In March 2014 Wall Street’s ex-items S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2015 was about $133 per share; it ended up 20% lower at $106. Yet here they go again - the consensus for 2016 started out at $137 per share last spring, and is just now beginning to make its way back toward the high $120s. It is a barometer of the abject complacency and intellectual sloth that has descended on the casino owing to two decades of Fed coddling and seven year of free money for the carry trades. In the case of Chipotle, it was always just a burrito. In the case of the US and world economy and financial markets, it’s not even that.

"I commend the law enforcement for apprehending these two individuals, but their apprehensions raise the immediate question: Who else is there? What are they planning next? We need to see a systematic and careful retroactive assessment of refugees brought in from high-risk countries."

While one can never be entirely certain about these things, as they always play out slightly differently, it could well be that the upturn in the Rand gold price and SA gold shares is once again a leading signal for the entire sector. The canary in the gold mine so to speak, only this canary isn’t dying: instead it is a dead canary that is coming back to life.

In a year in which the smartest money around the world failed to generate any profit, the hedge fund known as the SNB was likewise slammed, and earlier today, it announced in a preliminary report (the full results will be out on March 4) that it had suffered a CHF23 billion ($23.05 billion) loss in the past year, or about 4% of its assets under management. In retrospect, considering some of the double-digit losses recorded by the marquee hedge fund names, a 4% loss looks downright respectable by funds who "hedge" only in name.

"We're here for the people of Harney County. We're here because people were being ignored. Now we're getting ignored again."

"I didn't come here to argue."

The Treasury yield curve has collapsed since Janet and her band of inverse Robin-Hoods hiked rates into the worst earnings and manufacturing recession since the crisis. In fact, the spread between 2Y and 10Y rates has plunged 15bps since December's FOMC meeting to its flattest since 2008... so we ask simply - Dear Janet, please explain?

"Until the market acquires greater confidence on the intended scale of currency depreciation as well as the equilibrium level of capital outflows (and effectiveness of capital controls) concerns around China’s currency policy are unlikely to subside any time soon."

The oil rig count dropped 20 to 516 in the last week - the biggest weekly drop in 4 weeks to new cycle lows. Crude was unimpressed, jumping modestly and then fading...

So, to summarize: in a quarter in which GDP rose by 0.8%, and was likely negative when excluding the benefits - yes, that's right, benefits - of the warm winter, the same way last year's "harsh winter" supposedly subtracted from GDP, the US added on average over 270,000 workers per month. Just when you thought the Chinese Department of Truth couldn't be topped...

"I get nervous because the next move in China is going to be a political move, and political moves are never well anticipated by markets. The Beijing regime is going to take steps to defend itself, or at least insulate itself, from the growing Narrative that they are incompetent. Heads will roll. Literally, in all likelihood. But the incompetence genie is very hard to stuff back into the bottle, and depending on whose head is on the chopping block, regime stability can deteriorate very quickly. Now that's what will make me change my bullish stance on China fundamentals, and that's what will make the US market swoon of last August look like a gentle spring rain."

It's getting worse... faster! These two stunning overnight developments in crude oil prices should shock investors...

Bubbles don’t correct - they burst! Sure, U.S. stocks might have climbed out of the August correction. But too many small- and mid-cap stocks are in the red to say "the coast is clear." And these growing divergences in the market are showing that we are very, very close to bursting.

Small Caps have been red most of the day but the major US equity indices clung valiantly to hopeful "China is fixed... and what about Jobs" gains (despite the recessionary print in wholesale data). But that is all over now... The S&P 500 and Dow have now broken down and turned red for the day...