‘Bernanke Put’ Risk for Shareholders?

Via Pension Pulse.

Michael Mackenzie and David Oakley of the FT report, ‘Bernanke put’ risk for shareholders:

Don’t fight the Fed. That is the mantra driving financial markets now.

As
the prospect of another super-sized dose of cheap money from the
world’s most powerful central bank has gained traction, the dollar has
tumbled. Almost everything else, be it Brazilian government debt, the
Thai baht, UK gilts, gold or the price of crude, is rising.

Equities,
though, are among those assets that have felt the biggest impact from
rising expectations that the Federal Reserve, under chairman Ben
Bernanke, will revive emergency efforts to pump money into the US
economy through the process known as quantitative easing – in other words, buying government bonds and other assets to stimulate bank lending.

Since
the Fed’s last policy meeting in September opened the door to another
round of bond purchases, being dubbed QE2 in financial markets, all the
main global stock indices – S&P 500, FTSE 100,
the FTSE Eurofirst 300 and the Nikkei 225 Average – have rallied
strongly. Emerging market equities have surged, too, boosted by the idea
that the money created by the Fed’s buying of bonds will end up in
other assets worldwide.

Some respected investors, including David
Tepper, the billionaire hedge fund investor who runs Appaloosa
Management have publicly extolled the virtue of a “Bernanke put” for the
stock market. Mr Tepper, for his part, has taken to the airwaves
arguing that, .should the economy weaken further, then the Fed’s embrace
of renewed monetary easing should protect equities from the risk of losses. The central bank’s stance, in other words, amounts to an equity put option for investors.

Weaker than expected US jobs data
on Friday only reinforced speculation that the Fed might resume its
asset purchase programme when its interest rate-setting committee meets
in November to prevent sustained disinflation and a feared double-dip
recession.

Some investors believe that
the Fed itself has been encouraging that belief. Speeches by Fed
officials have drawn attention to its unhappiness with America’s
fragile economic recovery and the fact that core measures of inflation
sit below the bank’s targeted level. There is a widespread view the
Bank of England could also act.

“Some market participants believe
that QE is not a good idea from a fundamental view, but Bernanke
believes it and, as a result, we view QE as a certainty,” says Richard
Tang, head of fixed income, forex and equity sales, Americas at RBS
Securities.

As those expectations have hardened, so the
relationship between equities and US Treasuries, which have tended to
move in opposite directions this year as investors’ appetite for risk
has fluctuated, has reversed. Now stocks and bonds are rising together.

One reason for this is the falling
dollar: a cheaper US currency is good for S&P 500 companies, who
derive half their revenues from outside America.

Another
reason is that a heavy dose of quantitative easing, assuming it is
successful, will not only support the bond market, but lower borrowing
costs for households and companies, stimulating growth.

“QE is as
much about falling yields as it is about weakening the dollar,” says
Dominic Konstam, global head of rates research at Deutsche Bank.

Since
the Fed’s policy meeting last month, the dollar has tumbled 4 per cent
on a trade-weighted basis, hitting a succession of 15-year lows
against the yen. It has lost 5 per cent of its value against the euro,
too.

In turn, dollar-denominated commodities such as oil have
soared. Crude is up 10 per cent, while gold has risen nearly 5 per
cent, to a record high this week of $1,364 a troy ounce.

The
S&P is back above 1,160 and is at its highest level since May,
while US Treasury yields have fallen back to below their lows of
August. The 10-year note yields less than 2.4 per cent, its lowest
level since January 2008.

The question
now is how long this rally in stock markets and dollar-denominated
asset classes will continue. For stock markets bulls, much is riding on
the Fed delivering QE2 on a scale that justifies the run-up in share
prices. The problem is nobody knows how big any asset-buying programme
might be.

Too small and the market will be disappointed. Too big
and sharply higher inflation may follow. Beyond questions about the
scale and scope of QE2 – or the “Bernanke put” – a bigger risk for
investors is that quantitative easing fails.

Tony Crescenzi,
portfolio manager at Pimco, says the effectiveness of quantitative
easing is “a major unknown even for the Fed, as few truly know the
effect that a given amount of QE will have on financial conditions, and
few truly know the impact that any loosening of financial conditions
will have on the economy”.

The pessimists point to Japan, where
quantitative easing has failed to stimulate the economy, or the stock
market, over the past decade. Some analysts argue that, if US banks
remain reluctant to extend credit, then the Fed is unlikely to prevent a
prolonged period of anaemic growth, or even another recession.

There
is no guarantee that QE2 will work, says Ken Wattret, chief eurozone
economist at BNP Paribas. In Japan’s case, deflation – falling prices
and economic stagnation – was the outcome. He adds however: “The
difference in the US and the UK is that they have moved much more
quickly than the Japanese did and the financial injections have been
much greater. This means the chances of success are much higher, which
is good news for equities.”

Mr Tepper, and other fund managers betting on a Fed-inspired recovery rally, will be hoping so.

There are no guarantees that QE2 will work, but as Vicki Schmelzer reports in MarketNews.com, as more come on board with QE2, risk appetite is rising:

The
Bank of Japan's announcement earlier in the week, of new quantitative
easing measures designed to help a flailing Japanese economy, further
cemented the notion of the Federal Reserve also embarking on a similar
path in the market's eye, traders said.

For sidelined
investors, who begrudgingly came on board with the notion of what QE2
come November might mean, this led to new monies being allocated into
more risk-friendly and higher yielding instruments.

Emerging
markets, commodities and commodity currencies benefited from renewed
risk appetite, as did the euro and other major currencies.

This week's trading action provided satisfaction for a variety of players even though movements were choppy at times.

Risk
bears took comfort in the fact that U.S. Treasury yields kept moving
lower, with some analysts talking about a move to 2.0% in the 10-year
note before the end of the year.

The 10-year U.S.
Treasury yield was closing at 2.3925% Friday, up from an earlier low of
2.334% and compared to last week's close at 2.526%.

For
risk bulls, commodities and currencies suddenly became the rage, with
gold posting a new life-time high of $1264.60, NYMEX light sweet crude
posting a five-month high of $84.43 and the euro posting a new
eight-month high of $1.4040, all Thursday.

Gold was ending the week at $1346.50/oz, oil at $82.66/barrel and the euro at $1.3930.

While prices in these instruments were down from Thursday's peaks,
traders look for a new wave of buying next week, if fixed income
markets continue to push U.S. Treasury prices higher and yields lower,
traders said.

Barring
some unexpected event that causes U.S. yields to rise, it is hard to
find a reason for a sudden reversal in sentiment, they said.

MNI's Fed watcher Steve Beckner observed Friday that this was "a
week that began with heightened expectations of renewed quantitative
easing ended with an employment report that arguably warrants such
action but by no means guarantees it in the near-term."

He
stressed that Fed officials "remain divided on what needs to be done
and when," adding that "with three weeks left before the Federal Open
Market Committee meets to revise its economic forecast and set monetary
policy, 'QE2' remains in doubt."

Market players would seem to disagree and that is why U.S. yields continue to edge lower, analysts said.

This
persistence about the Fed potentially implementing aggressive QE2 is
dragging the dollar lower, creating problems for emerging market
central banks around the world, they said.

In addition, dollar weakness is acting to push commodity prices
higher, which wreaks further havoc in that at some point inflation will
again become a concern, they said.

However, until the U.S.
employment situation improves and the economy again begins to thrive,
the market will remain wary.

"If the economy continues to
grow at a rate that will not reduce unemployment nor drive inflation up
to 2%, QE2 could be around for years as opposed to quarters," said
David Gilmore, economist and partner at FX Analytics in Essex, CT.

If indeed there is a double-dip recession, "it could get very big and in very short order," he warned.

For
those favoring a risk-off trade, he favors taking the QE side of the
trade over the prospects of new eurozone peripheral debt jitters.

Gilmore
would use any new revelations about eurozone sovereign debt that
propels the dollar higher and the euro lower to add to "risk longs,
(dollar shorts)."

The release of U.S. non-farm payrolls had only a short-lived effect on currencies and commodities, with the data mixed.

The headline of 95,000 job losses was worse than MNI's median of
-8,000, but the unemployment rate was steady at 9.6% instead of rising
to 9.7% as expected, and the private payroll result of +64,000 was about
what analysts expected after the ADP release earlier in the week.

On
the commodity front, the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index posted a new
two-year high of 295.17. The CRB closed up 2.72% at 295.11.

Traders pointed to the jump in soft commodities on the day with the majors (wheat, corn, soy) all limit up at one point.

The USDA Crop report, released earlier, suggested supply concerns, and was the driver of the move, they said. (http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf).

On the U.S. stock front, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the
Nasdaq Composite made headlines by breaking above key psychological
levels of 11000 and 2400 this week.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1165.15, after trading in a 1131.93 to 1167.75 range this week.

The market wants to see the index clear 1173.46, the May 13 peak
seen before eurozone peripheral debt jitters put the kibbosh on risk
appetite.

Only then will there be a shot at revisiting the 2010 high of 1219.61, seen April 26, analysts said.

Looking ahead, U.S. data releases (CPI, PPI, trade, retail sales,
preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment) will be closely eyed as
will Tuesday's release of the FOMC minutes of the September meeting.

Key Chinese data is also set for release next week (new loans, FDI,
trade, and foreign exchange reserves) and will attract attention.

Earlier Friday, Moody's Investors Services put China's A1 rating on review for a possible upgrade.

While China's economy has show "strong resilience during the
crisis," an upgrade may be premature, with BBH's model rating the
country as A+/A1/A+, which is in line with China's actual ratings, said
Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

As such, Moody's upgrade "would be the first to put China into double-A territory," he said.

Nevertheless, "the upward ratings trajectory for China (and really,
for most of EM) is undeniable and so whether an upgrade happens this
year or next year is really just splitting hairs as markets have already
priced it in," Thin said.

Rodrigo Campos of Reuters reports, Fed to run the show despite big earnings:

Not
even earnings from big names like Google and GE next week will be able
to pull Wall Street's focus away from the possibility of more cheap
cash flowing in from the Federal Reserve.

Normally when the
likes of JPMorgan or Intel --also reporting next week -- tell investors
how much they earned in the previous quarter, the stock market hangs
on every word.

But after Friday's
surprisingly anemic payrolls report, the increased likelihood the Fed
will buy more assets like Treasury bonds to stimulate the economy has
investors ignoring the usual benchmarks.

"Markets have been
oscillating between macro and micro data, and the upcoming week will
focus on macro," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at
Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

The
fact that Wall Street closed Friday in the black despite the weak
payrolls data is evidence the Fed's action is top of mind for investors
at this time.

Action from the central bank has already been
baked into the equities rally, with $500 billion as the most
talked-about injection. And the risk of a decline in equities is off
balance as both good and bad economic news could have a bullish effect
on stocks.

"Good news is clearly good and the market goes up,"
said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential
International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey.

"If
earnings or economic news is bad, then we'll get" a second round of
quantitative easing, he noted. "Therefore the market will still go up.
In that sense, risk is asymmetric."

Economic data next week,
including consumer and producer prices, retail sales and consumer
sentiment could shed further light on whether the economy has slowed
enough to require swift action from the Fed.

"If CPI shows core
inflation is going to fall, further odds of aggressive QE --as opposed
to a trickle -- will increase and that will be viewed positively by the
market," said Praveen.

EARNINGS TAKE BACK SEAT

Intel
Corp, JPMorgan Chase & CO, Google Inc and General Electric Co are
among the largest companies that will post earnings next week. Intel
warned in late August that its revenue could fall short and its shares
got punished, so there's little space for a negative surprise.

And
if Alcoa's report on Thursday was any indication, even bellwethers'
numbers may have to vary enormously from expectations to be noted amid
all the QE2 talk.

Alcoa Inc marked the unofficial start to
earnings season, rising 5.7 percent to $12.89 a day after its results
beat estimates. While the stock rose sharply, it was far from the
market's focal point, which hinged on the expectation of the Fed's
action.

And next week's Treasury auctions, especially of longer-term bonds, may also provide a boost to stocks.

Investors
are getting fatigued and bids on the 30-year bond might be a little
bit weaker from past auctions, according to Wells Fargo's Jacobsen.

A decline in interest would suggest "people are more interested in going into equities rather than bonds," he said.

Turning
the balance even further in favor of the bulls, expectations of more
easing from the U.S. central bank should keep the dollar on a
downtrend, which is another signal of gains for Wall Street.

An
inverse correlation between the greenback and U.S. stocks has prevailed
strongly in the last weeks The 30-day correlation between the S&P
500 .SPX and the dollar index .DXY was at -0.88, while the 50-day
correlation was -0.89.

That said, with the International
Monetary Fund meeting discussing the issue of competitive currency
devaluations and shorts on the U.S. dollar piling up, a big move up on
the greenback may become a hurdle for stocks.

OPTIONS CALL FOR CALM MARKET

S&P
500 charts show the previous resistance at 1,150 has turned into
short-term support, with the next resistance level around 1,170-1,175.
The current trend channel doesn't hit that area until late next week.

Options
trading implies low volatility levels, as reflected by the CBOE
Volatility Index and the CBOE Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index, said Scott
Fullman, director of derivative investment strategy at WJB Capital
Group.

"While the rally appears to have stalled," he said, "we continue to see indications of an upward bias toward prices."

Finally,
today I got to speak with one of my favorite senior pension fund
officers who manages a sizable bond and hedge fund portfolio. I leave
you with some of his thoughts, in point form:

• On QE: The multiplier effect is diminishing;
• There
  will be no double dip in the US. The leading indicators they look at
  (economic, not based on QE) are showing tepid growth in 2011;
• Europe lags behind the US by roughly six months. Problems in the periphery persist, with Spain heading into a double-dip;
• Commodities like copper and oil are on fire, but most of the move can be explained by the weak USD;
• Currency wars are raging...race to the bottom continues;
• Employment - or lack of - will be the political issue of the next decade;
• Leading
  indicators are pointing to tepid growth. Not strong enough to take any
  major risk so he is neutral now, hedging to protect against downside
  risk, and sticking close to his benchmarks;
• Risk trade is on.
  Some trades like short USD are getting crowded...need to be careful,
  last time this happened, greenback rallied sharply;
• QE is promoting risk-taking behavior but risks are high. He is surprised to see the VIX so low;
• Asset
  mix call: slightly long stocks (QE, record operating margins, tepid
  growth) but hedge downside risk. Bond yields can fall a further 20 basis
  points on the 10-year but bonds are pricey at these levels.

My
feeling is that going into year-end, asset managers and hedge fund
managers are going to squeeze all the beta juice they can because most
of them are underperfoming their benchmarks. The biggest problem now is
that risks are asymmetric (see Greenspan below), and very few pensions
are prepared for fat tail risk. But the risk of underperformance is the
one that's weighing on most portfolio managers who are nervously betting
on the 'Bernanke put'. 

Comments

[Bose Einstein OracIe]

I think people tend to forget who is really on the other side of the trade here sometimes. I'd call it the Osama Put. He only plays in the market every few years but always seems to win. The complacency trade is NOT that crowded.

[geminiRX]

We shouldn't anticipate a double dip recession because we never left the first. This is why he is a pension fund manager and why we are in a pension fund mess.

[V07768198309]

______________________________________- No monetary or fiscal policy can pull us out of the depression. I am inviting you today to Vote for Your Economy, Now. _______________________________________ When was the last time you were given that opportunity? We don't intend to replace the prevalent system but to offer you an additional option. We will add a significant amount of jobs, income and investment. This is the only election in which the law of the majority is not binding on the minority. If you don't participate you are still be making a choice: the choice of relying exclusively on the prevalent system. _______________________________________ Vote Now for the Credit Free, Free Market Economy Add Jobs, Revenues & Investments. Prosperous, Fair, Stable & Peaceful. http://post-crash.com _______________________________________ On September 10th at 10:10:10 AM EST I will post a video on that site describing the voting process. _______________________________________

At the present moment people are unusually expectant of a more fundamental diagnosis; more particularly ready to receive it; eager to try it out, if it should be even plausible. But apart from this contemporary mood, the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back. I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas. Not, indeed, immediately, but after a certain interval; for in the field of economic and political philosophy there are not many who are influenced by new theories after they are twenty-five or thirty years of age, so that the ideas which civil servants and politicians and even agitators apply to current events are not likely to be the newest. But, soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil.

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[Wyndtunnel]

The Fed is the Empire's Debt Star..they are coming into range and unless the rebel Alliance can stop them (anyone? anyone?) they will unleash their QE2 cannon and blow the dollar to smithereens.  Millions of voices will cry out as their life savings vapourize into thin air...again.

[SheepDog-One]

Only problem with Leos post, Q/E2 is a bluff thats already been priced in and will never be delivered. Its the biggest hoax ever to suck retail blood dry. Talk about Q/E2 for how long, 6 months at least? And kick the can on down the road, lol, Q/E2 is Santa Claus, never happen.

[Leo Kolivakis]

It could very well be a bluff, but all they need to do is convince enough people that they stand ready to come in heavy if needed. Just that alone will scare the shit out of any hedge fund that is short bonds. And here is another thought, what if they come in stronger than expected? This environment is extremely difficult and if you're a senior portfolio manager worried of underperforming, you'd be crazy to bet against the Fed. It could cost you your job, even if you know downside risks are increasing with every QE announcement.

[kaiserhoff]

I wrote on another thread that the Bernanke put is less than worthless, because it increases liquidity without increasing value.  The inevitable result is massive volatility and instability.  Anyone see evidence of that?

Nice post Leo.  I understand the bind fund managers are in.  You are reviewed quarter by quarter, so the pressure to chase yield is enormous.  Often overlooked is the lack of liquidity.  It's fun to bitch about the big boys, but small accounts have a range of options and instant liquidity that make fund managers drool.

That said, this is just the last stage of a game of musical chairs.  Lots of well intentioned people will be stuck with billions in bonds, yielding almost nothing, in a world filled with devaluation and inflation.  How does that end well?

[doggings]

Leo this is the best, most balanced post I've seen from you in a long while.

as I generally dont waste any time telling you when I think its nonsense, I thought I should say that.

[Paul E. Math]

My thought is that this is one of those 'buy the rumour, sell the news' situations. 

Markets rise in anticipation of QE2 but when QE2 actually begins analysts will look at the actual earnings and realize equities are way overpriced. 

I'm considering going short consumer services with the thought that the gap between expectation and reality is the largest there, to be revealed when the christmas shopping season lays an egg.

Just thinkin'.

[Fat Ass]

The bottom line with all this insanity is buy as many gold bars, small or large, as you can, immediately.

It's admirable and skillful to be able to play the current markets, profiting from short term trades, but is it really something you even want to have anything to do with?

The stock markets no longer have anything whatsoever to do with productive value and the economy.

The stock markets now are nothing more than toys of the "banking-government complex" .. is it worth having anything to do with the markets?

Close all positions and get back to whatever it is you Actually Do in life .. make bridges, chemicals, toys or whatever the case may be.

Decent people should just get out. Even if you're clever enough to trade the moment to your advantage .. is it something you should be doing? Life is short, get back to real life.

"What if they gave a war and nobody came?" Right now the "banking-government complex"is giving a sham, a con, a scam .. it would be much better if Nobody Came.

Screw the markets - exit them. Use current currency, government-banking-fiat-paper-money begrudgingly while you have to. Focus on the "real" world - build a better mousetrap, baugette, shoelace or whatever it is you do.

Get out of the insanity!

[El Hosel]

 Nice one Fat Ass,

       "Get back" to life and where you once belonged.

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqiAl84ipIk

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nIQfqRwTAo&feature=related

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJPmB6HqcTY&feature=related

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVqoG0zSBa4&feature=related

& the 5th Beatle  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhap_K8X3yM&feature=related

[rocker]

Thanks for the tubes.  Never saw before. So funny watching the bobbies trying to stop a cultural revolution. Yup.

Just Great Stuff.  

[Gromit]

Well put

[LOL123]

The joke is on us...why are listening to Greenspan when we need to be listening to William White and /or Claudio Borlo at least they got it right the first time around. Greenspan the "Maestro"'s gold finger is tarnished with his idea of "cheap money". We would all be better equiped if we just read the BIS report for 2010..at least we would know which direction the Governments are suppose to go in and the rest will follow like good little sheep.

[gwar5]

Since nobody in the article knows what QE II will do, or if it will work, and didn't work in japan for a decade, this is really nothing more than a hail Mary Pass, isn't it?

My guess is a drop of 50% in the USD will stimulate GDP growth to 10% which is great -- Yeah!

But doubling of the price of oil and food without real increase in wages will decrease real GDP 20% -- Argggh!

Net 10% drop -- And now all those hungry people can't get gas to get to the store ...Ouch!

[twittering as s...]

"trying to deduct the truth by reading the tea leaves."

roger that.

[Hansel]

"... most of them are underperfoming their benchmarks... the risk of underperformance is the one that's weighing on most portfolio managers..."

Considering most pension funds are underfunded, portfolio managers can relax.  There is no risk of underperformance.  They are already successfully underperforming.  ATTN MANAGERS, you can skip the short term thinking now.

[CustomersMan]

  If there is a rushed Jewish departure from America, from inside the White House, the question is WHY? and for what good reason are they giving up the power, prestige, money, and connections? 

I would expect to see others consider the move. 

If this is true, what about Bernake?  Is he about to make an exit?...and if so why? And what about others from the same mold, or tribe?

Is there something bad coming our way,...soon?

Just being cautious, trying to deduct the truth by reading the tea leaves.

[frankTHE COIN]

I'm trying to be balanced in my response to what you just wrote.

" a rushed Jewish departure from america, etc, etc. "

Hopefully you will reconsider and change this * accidental inflammatory post * Its friday, its late and wine flows.

The point is, that your point is lost, because of , hopefully miswording.

it happens, change the tone. # Maybe you should see it as human beings are leaving their posts, and/or america #

[Cookie]

Why so long winded Leo. This point can and should be made in 3 paragraphs

[frankTHE COIN]

Cookies are sweet and can not lie.

[doolittlegeorge]

You need a picture of General David Petraeus.  "Napoleon is in da House."  We'll see if Ben lasts the week.  There is an alternative and "he's from Kansas."  I hear they know something about feeding people in that state and even a thing or two about railroads.

[frankTHE COIN]

And i want to add that LEO, by providing this info, its confirmation that you are not biased but level headed and let the facts get to everyone and then they can all draw their own conclusions.

Thanks Leo

[caramel55]

Thanks Leo.

[frankTHE COIN]

It's inherently risky. Short term its a good trade to buy, medium to long term its a disaster and favors the shorts.

Personally i'm long term bear and i'm short, but i scalp around my main position while taking obvious buy trades that offset losses.

I've seen many cracks that turned into crashes, and this will be the biggest one of them that i, and the world, has witnessed.

[doolittlegeorge]

i agree--"it ain't Greek to the Greeks."  Beware "the geeks" however.

[rocker]

The Real Risk and Reward.  Who Decides what goes up and or goes down.  

The deciders make all the money and you can only hope you pick the right ones.

This is the ultimate manipulation for personal gain by the criminals who do this. 

[ZackAttack]

Wonderful, except that it's impossible to show a time that monetizing debt has ever worked in all of recorded human history.

[doolittlegeorge]

World War II you moron.

[Burnbright]

Do you mean how Germany had experienced hyper inflation, cause the US did not monetize debt during WWII, they issued war bonds to the public.

[StateofFraud]

And implemented tax withholding ("Victory Tax").

And increased taxes:

http://carriedaway.blogs.com/carried_away/images/economics/u.S.%20Spendi...

[Lonewar]

Hey everyone,

Anytime you are having a conversation with someone and the conversation turns to money or finance, please ask them this question,

"Why does a private bank control the printing of the U.S. Dollar?"

That is all that I would request of you.

[cbxer55]

I junked ya. Your putting this same exact message, word-for-word, on every thread on the board.

The essence of JUNK.