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…To The Shores Of Tripoli
The
Empire is stirring. You may not notice it initially and you may not
care yet: in time you will. The US is the only military in the world
that can invade a prepared and defensive nation – not only expecting to
win; but to dominate the event. Pax Americana is coming to an end.
Outside of an attack on Hawaii like Japan used in 1941; the US picks
its wars. The only functioning Empire in the known universe, America
has the capacity to unilaterally act with overwhelming force.
It normally takes years for a situation to reach a critical boiling
point where the US will intervene. The GW I & II era took 6-9
months of obvious preparation time before occurring. Kosovo was an
aerial war with no real ‘boots on the ground’ until the outcome was in
the waning stages.
Afghanistan started out as a special ops cowboy war; it has now
slowly grown into the largest armed conflict on the planet currently.
The Iraqi war is winding down with combat troop levels dropping to
historic low levels since 2003.
Normally,
the U.S. is slow to act; however when the Empire does act, under most
circumstances it is prepared to handle two individual wars at the same
time. The Iraqi war is winding down currently, giving the US the
capacity to act unilaterally again. The US has a military budget that
is larger than the rest of the world combined. This gives it the
capacity to act in its own best interest on demand.
World War I & World War II are both prime examples of the US
arriving into an ongoing conflict with overwhelming muscle. The above
will provide you with the context of what is next to come.
When an Empire decides to attack another nation, there are a set of
dances that both sides normally undertake: it’s akin to a ritual
courting, in reverse. The outcome of this public ritual dance is war,
not a peaceful diplomatic outcome. With the benefit of hindsight,
these signs are unmistakable. The US and England have always had a
unique international relationship and is one prime example.
While the US is the current Empire, the US was originally part of the
last Great Empire. Those old relationship bonds run deep and true.
While the media loves to try to highlight the gap between nations,
politicians come and go on both sides. Some politicians are friendlier
to the unique relationship than others.
The
relationship is most obvious when it comes down to the art of making
war. The US and England combined present a war making capacity that the
rest of the world combined lacks hands down. When they speak as one
the rest of the world listens.
“We have seen Colonel Gaddafi’s security forces open fire on peaceful
protesters. They have used heavy weapons on unarmed civilians.
Mercenaries and thugs have been turned loose to attack demonstrators,”
“Through their actions, they have lost the legitimacy to govern. And
the people of Libya have made themselves clear: It is time for Gaddafi
to go — now, without further violence or delay”
-Secretary Of State Hillary R. Clinton, U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva.
“We do not in any way rule out the use of military assets” to deal with Gaddafi’s regime.”
- British Prime Minister David Cameron
The bottom line is: the US is going to resort to military action in
Libya. The size and scope of the operations is yet to be determined.
You only have to look at the building up of assets in the region to
realize that the Hammer is being loaded right now.
If Gaddafi isn’t careful, the Hammer is going to fall on his head.
The US Marines have been to Tripoli before and they will most likely be
returning again soon. May Allah have mercy on Gaddafi soul; because the
US Marines won’t.
The Marines are coming…
From the Halls of Montezuma
To the shores of Tripoli
We fight our country’s battles
In the air, on land, and sea;
First to fight for right and freedom
And to keep our honor clean;
We are proud to claim the title
Of United States Marine.
Our flag’s unfurled to every breeze
From dawn to setting sun;
We have fought in every clime and place
Where we could take a gun.
In the snow of far-off Northern lands
And in sunny tropic scenes;
You will find us always on the job –
The United States Marines.
Here’s health to you and to our Corps
Which we are proud to serve;
In many a strife we’ve fought for life
And never lost our nerve.
If the Army and the Navy
Ever look on Heaven’s scenes,
They will find the streets are guarded
By United States Marines.
Confessions of a Macro Contrarian www.JackHBarnes.com
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As folks whine about the deficits and the fact that half the US population is destitute and living on govt handouts etc etc - they should read this article to feel their backs stiffen, buttocks tighten and just feel that overwhelming sense of well being that such absolute domination should provide the citizens of the empire. so - all that domestic deprivation to spend more than the rest of the world combined - is all worth it .... right?
QE3,4,5,6,7,8,9-------100,000,000 here we come. There should be a conflict of interest here when the people who make the descisions to go to war also profit by it. Lets see who's buying call and put options and in what companies. That would be an interesting article. I need a double crown royal.
I suppose this could be called a macro contrarian-contrarian observation from off South Main Street. Here goes...
First things first. The whole concept of fighting two regional conflicts simultaneously went out the window with the "peace dividend". Since the waning days of GHWB after GW1 the focus changed to fighting two nearly simultaneous regional conflicts. What many folks fail to appreciate is that our years in Iraq & A-Gan have left our prepositioned warehouses in Diego Garcia empty. I strongly suspect this is the case with the same warehouses of prepositioned equipment in Europe and perhaps elsewhere as well. Folks forget that the environment in the Middle East is not kind to military hardware. There have been massive losses of equipment with expected return to service times now pushed to a decade in some cases simply as a result of wanting to hide the true cost of these operations.
The equipment problem is so severe with some kinds of essential equipment that the National Guard formations are bare, or nearly so and unable to deploy with their own equipment, or effectively respond to natural disasters here at home. I'm talking stuff like trucks, tents, rifles to tanks. This same condition is also pervasive in active formations as well. So, even if our units were manned at full strength, which they're not due to extended up-tempo operations (and a massive hollowing effect in the middle NCO & commissioned ranks), the US military simply doesn't have the equipment & personnel to meet this two nearly simulations regional conflict standard even if we wanted to. The simple fact of the matter is that we would be hard pressed to commit to one region right now as we are witnessing with naval decision cycles involving deployment of our carrier task forces that will either leave the Med, Persian Gulf or South China Sea/Indian Ocean without a significant naval presence, let alone the capacity to sustain operations. Folks forget that we had to eliminate most of our "rapid deployment" capability to meet operational requirements as well as deploy brigades from Korea to support our on going ops in the ME region.
Next we have the issues surrounding the "indigenous populations" and their view of US military intervention. Many folks fail to appreciate that much of the fuel for opposition to our actions is premised simply on our being there in force and this feeds the grief our nation has been facing in that part of the world. So not only is it nearly impossible for us to sustain operations, but it would be HUGELY counterproductive if we were to. I suspect this is one reason we heard today that Italy has suspended its non aggression pact with Libya and the British Prime Minister is preparing his nation for intervention. In this I suspect that due to operative conditions the US will be in a service & support posture on this one, limited air ops excepted.
There are several considerations that apply in the case of Libya specifically (and later Algeria in the case of Nos 1&2). First is securing the energy infrastructure. The second is rapid resolution. The third (in the case of the US) is to ensure that QuackDaffy never makes it to the home of the only person in the world who would take him in, Hugo Chavez since this would import these issues to the western hemisphere.
Directing our attention to the first two of these imperatives there is one overriding concern. RAPID resolution with a minimum of disruption since any prolonged disruption (three - eight weeks worth) would cause ripple effects that would almost guarantee instability in the national economies of southern Europe rendering any attempt to salvage the sovereign debt and shadow systems moot. That's the biggie right there Jack since to lose Italy's sovereign & banking debt dynamics (and quite possibly Frances) along with their counterparties could well be the catalyst for the great financial ripple that many here have been calling for. Amazing that it may turn out to be Libya & Algeria rather than the PIGGS that do Europe's financial order in. The third item is self explanatory. I would suspect the embracing of QuackDaffy by Chavez may well be rejected by Venezuelan society and would have serious implications for the US economy hitting energy supply, CL spreads & metals hard which would also spell, if not doom for the Ber__Nank than certainly Excedrin headache #14,450,000,000,001.
Lets see here .. there were riots in Croatia today with the potential for more in this region as Hungary's household sector is going to go nuts over its CHF denominated debt and these events just may be the catalyst there. In Asia we've seen cracks in both Korea's, Vietnam, Japan with their budget impasse and most importantly Jasmine herself, China. Call me crazy Jack, but even with the Army of 1990 we wouldn't have half as many assets as would be required to play arsonist, fireman & cop. Kinda reminds me of Great Brittan in the spring of 1941. The dynamic this time is that events are unfolding so rapidly the political & bureaucratic apparatuses in public & private spheres are simply unsuited to keep up, let alone engage effectively. Hence the disjointed and hollow responsing we have witnessed thus far. Besides burning bunker fuel & huffing about our commitment to human rights (laughable in a region that has been both tortured and torturer for hire for decades) we are reduced to a flailing tweaker that is running out of dope. Problem is that most others are as well. I disagree with El-Eran in that the constant of placating populations with WIC cheese previously has largely inoculated these societies to this standard response in what are considered relatively stable nations/regions adding dynamic potentialities that many would consider out of the money at present.
For the moment the US is compelled by circumstance to employ all of its national technical means to assist the spear chuckers from Europe to decapitate the Libyan government. The amazing thing is that policy makers have that glazed look since when crap like this goes down it has been at our direction and the replacement was all ready to go. This is not the case this time and the lack of a prepackaged replacement directly goes to the perception of loss of control which equates to loss of stability... Classic case of what happens when the forces of order and stability have so compromised themselves that they are unable to act effectively. So, we wil continue to see haphazard.
A final note. I am sure most, if not all of this is not lost on the player than has remained hugely silent. Vlad. I suspect at first he and his were wondering how we & Europe would play this. Now that China is talking hyperinflation and the ability to feed its people while Japan is talking government stoppage due to budgetary/debt considerations I bet he & his aren't chillin' so much now as they play their own game of catch up.
My apologies for this hit & run, but I'm smokein' tired. I'll try to revisit this later tomorrow perhaps.
Cheers!
Miles, great analysis. Especially the draw-down after first Gulf War and the draw down from two MRC to fight-hold-fight, to today's hodge podge. Another indicator that you are on the right track is the centralized control exhibited by NCA on the Combatant Commanders. Strategically, NCA can not afford to be wrongly entangled in two regions. So phasing is all and as we saw "Mission Accomplished" was statement of "end of decisive combat operations phase". Then was perverted.
- Ned
Thank you Ned-
Puts a whole new spin on F-H-F, especially the need to do the surge four years later after prolonged "low intensity" warfare/insurgency. Holding land is easy compared with holding a people. Reducing oneself to nailing the windows shut while applying the collar and chain to secure the wifey property at home is how our actions are perceived there. Heck, the only thing the Arab street hates more than their leaders is us since we are both viewed as torturers of the whole of society while brutalizing their wives & kids. So these folks rebel and then we rebel. Vicious cycle that only feeds the profiteers. No wonder Mubarak was able to amass billions ... and his bankers even more
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeGlJ7OouR0
Miles, another reason that "they hate us." We've successfully exported rap :-(
- Ned
And I am still waiting for us to export the rest of it!
Remember, you can't spell "crap" without "rap".
Ahhhh ..
Just because it's not your cuppa tea doesn't make it an unworthy cuppa tea for someone else. What harm does someone else's music enjoyment impinge upon your freedom to pursue your vocation? (yes, as long as it isn't going at a 120 db outside your car or home) Besides, one need not haveta listen to view the lyrics and get the message.
Cheers
Can't spell lost without the LT from lieutenant
Good to see ya akak
Let's see if this smokes any smoother for ya Ned. cheers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Im8jSBddfE
Good post, sir.
I take your point about supply and equipment depletion, but does the US need a lot of land-based hardware to get the job done here? I imagine them imposing a no-fly zone, then deploying some special forces to secure the oilfields, depose Gaddafy, and impose another satrap.
How much hardware would someone need to take, hold & pacify Texas? We found out in Iraq how doing it on the easy really works, eh? How rapidly has Iraq's energy production resumed the level of potential known delivery rates from 1989?
You're right about not needing much to decapitate and secure. The fact is this would be as welcomed throughout the whole of the MENA region as Adolf Hitler would be at an AIPAC convention.
Great note thanks, you said "the only person in the world who would take him in, Hugo Chavez" I'm told he is very close with Mugabe who is supplying him with troops.
Chuckie is simply using those that could cause him the most grief at home as cannon fodder abroad. Do you really think that anyone in authority, sociopathic or otherwise wishes to introduce QuackDaffy to the region? DeBeers et al would go nuts as would the nations in the region that are already reeling under the weight of Chuckie's insanity.
That Sir, was worth the price of admission.
Thank You.
Jack
more to follow tomorrow, on topic, in more depth, with out the topographical verbage...
Looking forward to it Jack.
Great post. Your hit and run has the smell of a Geronimo raid, of the Golden Horde's 'Razzia-furia'. Your insight about the US imperial military asset-maintenance squeeze and the MENA whammy on Southern Europe's financial ripple very revealing. If Quacky-duck gets the 'youfuckoffee too' sign from the West, after they have resolved the oil/political stability enigma in tribal Libya (big if), there is the spill over into the Saudi realm as well into Algeria/Morocco spheres, which are the continual headaches for US empire sustainers and their friends in EU. It's unstable dynamic equilibrium to say the least. Putin and China back in this regional game...who holds the royal flush in this high stake poker 5 carder is still anybody's guess.
..who holds the royal flush in this high stake poker 5 carder is still anybody's guess.
The answer to that question I believe can be found among us. Time to break the barriers of false segregation ....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcBduw4vCxY
Meanwhile there will be those that will attempt to divide & conquer and this is the real battle of the moment since destruction of everything, the resources excepted only serves the destroyers. Hence my equation of control with stability. The false paradigm of disrespect and my drive to introduce genuine respect. The people of the US, China, Russia, Egypt, or of the several faiths are not the enemy. The enemy are the sociopaths that make their living off of our collective carnage for their personal edification. This is a crux of it. QuackDaffy no more represents the whole of Libian society than does Chavez his or any other. The cultural differences that have been used & abused so badly that we have trouble seeing past our desire for revenge against a false enemy of these weak, sick, dope addicted bastards construction.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd4VSkj0Wks
+1
V.Nice Miles. (Rings true about the logistics, but didn't know equipment levels were so dire).
Thank you. Geronimo, Grierson and the socially demented Nathan Bedford Forrest well appreciated the dynamics of the deep strike and extending the multi-dimensional battlefield.
And personnel. The US military, its doctrine & equipment require significant amounts of training & experience. Rent a spearchucker from Chad or Zimbabwe just won't do it
Miles:
Yep, and that is operating experience from especially TET, where the Marines were losing like 200 casualties/week. And Cronkite, and Powell's (generically Powell's assessment, and attempt to hamstring U.S. Policy with the fricken' "Powell Doctrine") that we gotta' involve everyone in the fight.
We've failed (as force-on-force must) to be able to counter the micro-infiltrator with a) 5 M CEP and b) international television/video/internet broadcast of each pinprick.
But doggies are reforming the operator community to lower experience req'ts and specialize. We'll see.
- Ned
Indeed Ned
The empire can thrash about all it wants, but the clock is ticking. All empires collapse. The historical record for empire failure currently stands at 100%. Will American exceptionalism beat this record? I doubt it. If lucky, the American nation will survive the collapse.
finally, over the hurdle
While the concept of Empire is a bit beyond the average Americans' awareness (that I have seen), and that it's good to highlight it, it's also incomplete to leave out link to the Petrodollar.
While Hillary is trumping up the "humanitarian" propaganda, there are a lot of countries around the world in more serious need of humanitarian intervention.
The big difference is that they don't have oil.
The only reason why we're in the Middle East is to protect the oil pipelines.
And the big question is how long can we keep the military presence when (not if) our economy, and dollar, implodes? That will be the question for the decades ahead. I don't see any answers here, though the Pentagon is supposedly looking at it.
Hold it. I need a translation.
The outcome of this public ritual dance is war, not a peaceful diplomatic outcome. With the benefit of hindsight, these signs are unmistakable. The US and England have always had a unique international relationship and is one prime example.
Are these random thoughts?
"Imperial Overstretch" is a recognized phenomenon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_Overstretch
Fits well as a postscript to the article.
sounds like an artificial 'dick' job...
Great term. China and Russia must be laughing at these idiots.
I don't think so. As long as China keeps buying our treasuries, the West's MICs will keep spending their money through the replacement of expensive things that go bang.
Last I heard, they weren't buying.
I just heard the USA Sargent tell his troops in Iraq,'I have goo dnews fo ryou and some bad news."
"The good news is you'r eleaving Iraq....
...the bad news is you're going to Libya."
wow, are you really posting that song? The mindfuck of healthy young men who could build a better world, diverting them with dreams of glory that turns them into killers. C'mon, Jack, walk through that door, move toward the light. Don't you think enough young men (and women) have died so you could be comfortable. There's a better way. Hey, how about letting those people figure out their own lives...
Imperialist pigs
Hey!
There will be fabulous reasons for invading: women and orphans to protect, mouths to feed, women's rights to defend, enlightening the unenlightened, lighting the lamp of libery, and protecting the nation's interests. There will be no exit strategy.
It's all for the kids.
It's all about the kids.
That's why we have to do it.
It's not about oil or money, it's all for the kids.
<sarc off>
"The US and England combined present a war making capacity that the rest of the world combined lacks hands down."
Yeah, that's why they're getting their asses kicked by a bunch of illiterate, introspective Pashutun tribesmen armed w/ AKs, a few RPGs and some home-made bombs.
Semper this.
USA and Britain are both near bankrupt, they will invade any country to rob them of their resources with the slightest excuse they can come up with!
You're both missing the point.
The US and Britain could wipe the floor with the rest of the world in conventional warfare. ie - they could destroy the rest of the world's military in a conventional war (of course, none of the other nuclear powers would keep things conventional if that were to happen so it's a moot point) That's not the same thing as invading and holding large swathes of hostile territory. No, the US and Britain cannot take over the world like that. They don't need to.
The whole point of modern imperial military action is to secure strategic objectives, and to rob resources... not of the victims, but of the imperial nations' own taxpayers and bondholders. That's where the real money is; our MIC love perpetual war, not because they get to steal the vanquished nations' resources (Afghanistan has little worth stealing) but because modern military hardware is so expensive. Every Hellfire missile that incinerates some poor shepherd makes a small fortune for its manufacturer, and the bankers who lend the government the money to buy it.
Obama will not be sending the Marines into Libya. No way. There are some things he's being forced to deal with in Iraq and Afghanistan but this guy hates the U.S. military and everything it represents and everything he thinks it represents.
The Marines have a better chance of being deployed to Wisconsin.
Obama may not love the military, but he loves using military force as much as the next fascist.
Gross military spending + enflaming hatred of U.S. = one step closer to collapse.
Obama will be a good little boy and do as he's told - just like every president before him (aside from one whose reign was cut short in Dallas).
I LOVE that Tune! Keep up the good work!
With Facebook and Twitter we don't need no stinkin' empire!
I understand that a lot of people make this mistake but i think the evidence is overwhelming that FDR tried his hardest to engineer the japanese into attacking pearl harbor.
Please read Robert Stinnets book and judge the evidence for yourself....much of it documents obtained from the government itself through the Freedom Of Information Act.....such as this.....this is not tin foil had stuff
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCollum_memo
Spot on, wars are for profit/slaughter of non joos.
http://www.archive.org/download/PearlHarborstoryOfTheSecretWar/Microsoft...
http://www.iamthewitness.com/
You know you can lead a dying donkey to a poisoned watering hole. But he doesn't have to drink it. You can wave a red flag in front of a bull but he doesn't have to charge off the cliff. If the fish bites...he's toast...So goes the animal world. We humans are not fish, we do have free will to avoid going off the precipice...At least, that's the general idea...
unjunk (1)
Agree, I urge all in doubt to study the events of the years prior to WW2.
Combine the depression along with FDR's boxing the Japanese in by cutting off their access to resources, figure too that FDR was itching to help the brits in the europe theater...why of course Roosevelt was baiting the Japanese to attack.
Remember the Lusitania (the british ocean liner sunk in WW1)?
As a kid studying history in school, the text books made it out as an innocence victim. Alas, not so. Time has shown the Lusitania was in fact carrying arms in addition to passengers.
And the Vietnam war...anyone read the Daniel Elsberg revelations about the lead up to the Gulf of Tonkin incident?
The common denomitor here is that the western governments (the US and UK) have a history of manipulating the public.
That's one reason why I believe 9/11 was more of the same; a necessary 'pearl harbor' to set the stage for Afghanistan/Iraq.
Look at the way our government now shields, even promotes ... corrupt wall st and the banks, the way it's gearing up its own gestapo that now have expanded to searching people getting OFF trains.
Does that seem like an organization of virtue, one that you can trust?