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10 Year Bond Yield Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Finally, we have a true liquidation flight to safety. We expect the Fed will come to market with an announcement before market opens tomorrow.

 

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Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:49 | 1054203 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Cash is King again.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:49 | 1054211 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

HAARP nigga

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:46 | 1054448 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Not this time. It's our friend the sunspot.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:53 | 1054558 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

Deflation is Here. Was Prechter actually RIGHT? greenback cash? look at those futures baby... YEE HAW tomorrow gonna be FUUN!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:20 | 1054724 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Prechter is i believe going to be proved right on deflation... but his Elliott Wave stock service (clown show) is so fuking wrong like you wouldn't believe, the biggest sham i've ever come across

Here's Prechters 2010 prediction, 100% wrong for the entire year (12 months out of 12 =100% failure rate). Timing is everything, Elliott Waves are bloody useless, Prechter is bloody clueless

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTZigLYsiMM&feature=related

Yep, Prechters Elliott Waves predicts 2010 will be "at least as large a decline as 2008"....not even close, in fact the exact opposite of what happened in 2010. His service is the BIGGEST mis-direction of where the markets go week in week out, month in month out. This village idiot is peddling a cure worse than the disease and he's too arrogant to face up to the statistical reality of the failure rate of his predictions 

Log your failure rate for your predictions Prechter (try your shambolic 2010 record on stocks, commodities, Gold, Silver, US Dollars etc) it's close to 100% wrong right across the board. Elliott Wave predictions are mathematically proven absolute garbage 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:03 | 1054484 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@bob_dabolina

Almighty Dollar, holla!

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=holla%20back

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:23 | 1054593 Michael
Michael's picture

Cursive, are you there? Is your Youtube working?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:21 | 1054383 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

it is Offical; central bankers are the frontline of radiation fire fighters.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:59 | 1054477 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Gosh, so brave of them to be exposed to such toxic assets. Oh wait...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 06:57 | 1054733 nmewn
nmewn's picture

LOL...buy our debt bonds right now dammit!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:18 | 1054901 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Thank Heavens for Benny the Bean eh? ....doing Gods work too no doubt!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:01 | 1054483 strannick
strannick's picture

By cash, do you mean goldmoney, or filthy lucre?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:06 | 1054490 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@strannick

Dirty linens.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 05:30 | 1054683 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I saw this movie in 2008. It sucked then (if you were long) it will suck even more today.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 06:32 | 1054715 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

Cash is King

 

Now who was begging us to get to cash since last week?

Yep, this is all your fault. 

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:16 | 1054889 Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

Other than the fact you would have been wrong for two years..

 

Check

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:48 | 1054206 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Benicopter Bernanke will come to the rescue with US dollar swaps in the amount of 500 billion plus

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:57 | 1054260 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

That sounds about right

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:02 | 1054482 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I have nothing to base this on except the past, but this is bigger than TARP. At least a Tril bay-bee.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 05:33 | 1054685 malikai
malikai's picture

How dare you slander Benocide like that. He would NEVER dilute with such a small number. You need to repent, now.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:50 | 1054213 Misean
Misean's picture

Who could possibly be selling bonds?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:52 | 1054226 Slash
Slash's picture

no one.....yields are plunging...which means someone is buying, big time.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:54 | 1054250 Misean
Misean's picture

Yeah, my bad. World's turning upside down.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:59 | 1054278 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Misean, + 100

Flight to safety...  Until it isn't.

Fly to safety in GOLD before long...  Does not have to be today...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:07 | 1054334 Misean
Misean's picture

Won't be this week either. But most of the price move is paper. This is a FD to buy for delivery.

And, yes, I feel bad for saying it.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:13 | 1054346 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Gold AND Silver...but with Silver inventory near zero, up-up-n-away!

Price isn't important, only delivery.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 07:00 | 1054734 malikai
malikai's picture

Price most definitely is important. Do you hear that beeping sound? That's me and my truck in reverse waiting for $10 silver.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 07:31 | 1054778 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

That is going to be long long wait. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:13 | 1054356 prophet
prophet's picture

and they are buying them from someone ...... who is selling them no?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:54 | 1054246 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Bill Gross

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:57 | 1054264 mnevins2
mnevins2's picture

I was thinking the same thing.  I guess that PIMCO didn't have "insider information" regarding the earthquake, etc?  That's why I personally ALWAYS believe in diversity.  But what do I know, I'm NOT a billionaire!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:49 | 1054460 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

I used to believe in diversity, until I hired one too many albino negroid dwarf hermaphrodites to change my light bulbs on the 12 foot ceiling.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 04:06 | 1054638 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

NEW HQ FOLKS!  (And of course we all feel bad for saying it...but this is the true home for those who live the Razor's Edge.)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:16 | 1054362 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I may be about to make a complete fool of myself... but I am selling bonds.

Most Government debt cannot be repaid as it is. Add this disaster... I cannot believe the CBs will do anything other than monetise like there's no tomorrow.

How can that be good for yields? And how long before the market agrees with me?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:19 | 1054372 infiniti
infiniti's picture

At the open, bond funds will surpass US equity markets in YTD performance.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:23 | 1054390 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Well, so far, the June futures for the 10 and 30 year don't agree with you.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:24 | 1054396 prophet
prophet's picture

So much for the first calendar year in over twenty when the prior year levels were not touched.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:53 | 1054465 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

fck yields, just buy gold, food, wine, and pentagrams for when chairsatan visits your dinner party

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:06 | 1054492 Michael
Michael's picture

Well I for one can guarantee I won't be paying on those US junk bonds.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:08 | 1054498 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@BigJim

Most Government debt cannot be repaid as it is. Add this disaster... I cannot believe the CBs will do anything other than monetise like there's no tomorrow.

Forget bonds and cash, if I were in this camp, I'd be long on "stuff."

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:50 | 1054214 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Isn't this what Chairsatan wants?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:50 | 1054216 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

QE4SQUARE bitches

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:51 | 1054225 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Quick, Congress, borrow something....

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:05 | 1054855 Unlawful Justice
Unlawful Justice's picture

That's what WAR is for.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:51 | 1054231 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Shit. I am dumb because I didn't think that was the primary goal of the whole disaster.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:52 | 1054240 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Ask and you shall recieve..Thanks Tyler, thats what I was looking for..

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:52 | 1054561 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

This bond thing is beyond me. Please help by expanding.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:52 | 1054241 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

muni bonds not looking so bad now

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:16 | 1054259 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Word!

General Obligation bonds from US States that employ fiscal discipline.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:52 | 1054243 element115
element115's picture

Can the DXY catch a mother fuckin' bid, one time?

 

Christ.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:58 | 1054269 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I believe it just did.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:53 | 1054249 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

QE3.....QE4.....

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:54 | 1054252 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I guess this means low interest rates for a while, too.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:56 | 1054253 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Tyler, with the Treasury low on cash because of the debt ceiling, will this limit the Fed?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:57 | 1054272 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

That's an excellent question.

 

And could this be one of the few things that would motivate republicans to vote for an expansion of the debt ceiling?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:07 | 1054325 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Congress will use the 'crisis' to raise the debt ceiling, that is unless the 'conservatives' hold the line. My guess is that it'll be raised because of the 'situation.'

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 04:08 | 1054640 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

or the "conservative variant of never let a crisis go to waste"?  Money is no object now....

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:22 | 1054389 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

and the mob really cares how many sandwiches it sells in the front of the front

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:56 | 1054254 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

this cant be good for silver

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:55 | 1054258 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

On the contrary, it might be excellent. Precious Metals are an historical safe haven.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:58 | 1054273 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Not tonight

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:02 | 1054287 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Your seeing an algo reaction, not a people reaction.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:05 | 1054314 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

they already bounced.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:05 | 1054319 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

But soon.

A great opportunity is coming for buyers of gold, silver and platinum.  Especially gold.  Eyes open!

Get prepared!  Diversify and be agile!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:29 | 1054408 onarga74
onarga74's picture

Forex gold is down silver too.  I wonder if Bondo Bill want back in the T-bill game?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:57 | 1054262 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

If the market opens tomorrow.  They may have to shut them down.  The volatility is insane.  With the amount of leverage they kept in the system even after 2008 it is unclear whether the system can withstand the realignment.  There would not be enough money to cover the margins if it keeps going like this.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:00 | 1054280 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Interesting...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:58 | 1054265 Terminal Frost
Terminal Frost's picture

Time for Timmah to get on the refi train like the rest of his millions of subservient debt slaves

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:58 | 1054276 Slim
Slim's picture

Who was it that wrote the article saying the USD and Treasuries were no longer a flight to safety asset and the proof was in the pudding when some Lybian skirmish coincided with gold being up and equities down, what was it less than 1%?

 

Prayers with the Japanese people on this one though.  Just an unbelievable catastrophe that keeps getting worse. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:26 | 1054528 Orly
Orly's picture

I am with you, Slim.  We should all pray for them and give what we can in these terrible times.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 04:13 | 1054642 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

They have given.  They are called "sailors of the United States Navy."  If and when the US get's "the event" they will be called upon to pay our price.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 04:20 | 1054650 Orly
Orly's picture

I spoke with a 90-year old Marine pilot today who served in the Pacific in WWII.  Fascinating gentleman.

He flew recon-photography over the Japanese-held islands.  Taking pictures of the Japanese, he said.  Kidding, I asked him if they were Geisha girls and he said, no, it was all palm trees, sand and Jap helmets.

I hope they're still making them like him!

;)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 00:59 | 1054277 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Pretty F-up when terrible news for the Japanese means short term good news for America.

Disaster=Good

Fraud=Good

Theft=Good

Greed=Good=Gordon Gecko was the mother f-ing truth.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:03 | 1054292 Misean
Misean's picture

Trillions in fiat sloshing about have to go somewhere. It's a snap back to the origination. Really, not a good thing.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:01 | 1054289 chump666
chump666's picture

on wires now:

- BOJ offers another Y3 trillion in same-day funds to the money market -- This follows an injection of Y5 trillion in the morning, for which it received Y3.6608 trillion demand from financial firms -- The move comes after firms took up Y8.926 trillion of Y15 trillion offered Monday -- Highlights BOJ's efforts to calm markets rattled by the earthquake, nuclear crisis

Oil is bid.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:46 | 1054449 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

What does "oil is bid" mean?

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 13:10 | 1056968 jp
jp's picture

Excellent question.

The short answer. Sell order was the bid price.

then there is the more complex aspect of the oil/metals divergence.

add in margin calls which must be covered with metals if that is all you have, then

add to that the age old theory of DFTF & something strange maybe brewing..

http://wp.me/pwkw8-ux

or people could simply double down & say STF. I say, I am going to bet on America, every time

because they can do stuff like this whenever they want...

http://ransquawk.com/headlines/126122

as in sieze your hard assets, if your a sorry sack of crap and give them to the masses who seek freedom and democracy.

As in God Bless America.

If I had my way we would already be in there helping them as of two weeks ago, but as I understand it they needed to get everyone on board including Russia & China. I say they both can do as they like.

 When you stand for freedom and democracy, you stand with the People. Power to the People. We the People of the United States of America, Will Stand with the People.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:01 | 1054291 BKGuy
BKGuy's picture

and now comes this genius from the ratings agencies:

S&P Eyes Possible Credit Cut On Tokyo Electric

TOKYO (Kyodo)--Standard & Poor's said Tuesday it might downgrade the credit ratings of debt issued by Tokyo Electric Power Co., ...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:04 | 1054303 Misean
Misean's picture

These boys are about as sharp as bowling balls.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:15 | 1054364 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

these guys would walk up to me and tell me i needed to go to the bathroom after i was already taking a piss

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:04 | 1054299 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Gee, whatever happened to those BOA whistle-blowing e-mails?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:08 | 1054337 surferexx
surferexx's picture

+A99

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:11 | 1054348 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1000

Yeah!  Where the Hell are they?

I posted last night that that had better be good..., or else the conspiracy theorists (those anyway) would have ZeroCredibilty.

A false alarm, just when we NEED good info...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:05 | 1054310 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Knee jerk reaction pissing of the pants.  Flight into the USD.  Won't last with the

treasury almost out of cash.  I don't want to hold US dollars for long.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:06 | 1054316 pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

American homeowners--this is your last chance to refi.  The near term low in UST yields will be the final bottom in yields.

With the Japanese now effectively out of the world bond markets as buyers, who will buy the $1.5-$1.6 trillion of new government paper we will need to sell in the next year (let alone make up for the Japanese UST holdings which won't be rolled over since they will need to repatriate their money).

With one of the world's largest net savers now out of the market who is going to pick up this slack?

QE3 and QE4 are now certainties.

But given the market's poor reaction to QE2 and the realization by most investors you can't print money forever, the two minute warning for the US Treasury market just rang and we are still down by multiple touchdowns.

Game over shortly.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:39 | 1054437 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

+

the lifeboats are being lowered...

so many drag queens among them

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:28 | 1054933 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Maybe...  on the off chance, I'll definitely be trying to sell my house during the "warm" upcoming months...  hoping someone nibbles at the rates.  But, I will in no way shape or form own again until price discovery occurs here...  I'll be renting... 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:07 | 1054327 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

the  Crash  is  here  folks...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:12 | 1054352 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

This is it? System failure imminent?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:07 | 1054330 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

a sign there is no viable investment, and bet the only one they think is long?  Long what?  Pig?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:15 | 1054589 Broomer
Broomer's picture

Since TS is HTF I'd be long on toilet paper.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:08 | 1054336 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Gold and Silver were both up today! 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 12:47 | 1056136 DosZap
DosZap's picture

You on the crackpipe I am, when?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:11 | 1054338 dryam
dryam's picture

When the foundation of our markets are built on nothing, then it doesn't take much to get the dominos falling & have the whole thing come crashing down despite what Bernake does or doesn't do.  The *mighty* deflation collapse might be upon us.  Even though the USD & UST's are strengthening right now it could all be very temporary & a currency collapse could be near. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:11 | 1054341 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Matthews:  Good analysis.. QE 3 is definately a certainty.  but what will they

call it, how will they spin it.   Definately gonna be inflationary globally.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:19 | 1054365 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

But I read on here 14trillion times the US is no longer a safe haven. That the metals are where it is at if not them then the Yuan was the new standard bearer.

 

Just like DEC 2008 yields will be lower than transactional costs.

 

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:16 | 1054369 chump666
chump666's picture

UST's will evetually be toast as Japan and Asia flow back is on the cards. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:31 | 1054380 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Eventually we'll all be dead.

 

Nothing more comical on this site the last 18months than the perpetual cries of new world order all the while as recently as two years ago old world order of shit hits fan buy US bonds was still true.

 

Same doomsday crappolla from the early 70's, the early 80's and now the early 2010's.

 

Really how many of you are direct descendants of Joe Granville?

 

There is no replacement, sorry.

 

and everything that went up in price with QE will most likely come down in price when QE ends. Which equals deflation, given no one will have any money to buy anything and Chinese state of the art overcapacity in manufacturing cheap ass crap isn't stopping, it makes perfect sense and rates go nowhere anytime soon as all the money fleeing those wonderful metals et al falling in price goes where it always goes when shit hits the fan-into US bonds.

 

Think it has something to do with deleveraging and the money not actually circulating or something on top of it but  I would have to be a neo marxist ZH self loathing wannabee intellectual to comprehend it completely.

 

But I am enough of an idiotic imbecile to recognize a mania and panic and not react like the herd. Can someone archive those nice little upward geometric charts the tangible assets were creating with QE? So when the mirror appears the neo marxist self loathing ZH folks can see what panic looks like too.

Moo.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:49 | 1054459 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Can I go long in-

 

"But I got out at the top posts"?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:52 | 1054464 reader2010
reader2010's picture

So you're saying Bill Gross knows shit. 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:04 | 1054473 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

There was no POMO in DEC 2008 and yields fell under transaction costs. The world in essence paid the US to hold their money.

 

The day Gross made his announcement there were more buyers than sellers and yields fell. 'nuff said?

 

Is there prosperity in Europe? How about in the US?

How do end up with inflation with no buyers and perpetual oversupply from China of many goods?

 Why shouldn't everything that went up in price which is mostly everything -with QE come down in price when QE finally ends which it will eventually?

There is a nice graph here somewhere of QE and worldwide tangible assets, they are extremely correlated,

why would that correlation suddenly stop?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:09 | 1054501 reader2010
reader2010's picture

But my question is whether or not there are any ways for the power elite to function without perpetual QE? Do they really want to shoot themselves in the foot? I understand this whole fucking derivative fiasco is big deflationary in nature. They will have to fight it to their death. No?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:29 | 1054600 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Coorelation stops when the sheeple realize there is a difference between price and value. You can deflate the whole phucking world, but there will still be items/objects that folks value.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 06:50 | 1054725 css1971
css1971's picture

For some reason it seems to be a difficult concept. With some relatives, I literally had to sit down with somea world globe in one hand and some bits of paper with numbers on them before they got the difference between stuff and money.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:01 | 1054476 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

it's not demand inflation, it's cost input inflation and money printing that boast of its frigidity. We can cunnilingus the deflation argument all day long and pretend that the popping of its CRE/Res cherry is deflation, but its just us practicing yoga and sucking what's closest... that is, the refusal to admit that inflation in an economy is not accompanied by all sectors going up.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:09 | 1054499 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Sucking what is closest is ignoring the mania created by QE and pretending when QE ends it won't.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:20 | 1054592 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

Snappy comeback mein froind, but it seems you just paraphrased what you already said. Nothing is forever...agreed, Xk. However, that assumes we're talking about now, and the near future (as defined/postulated by Austrian theory [which you may not agree on the definition, or be resistant to it's semantic cage if your a Keynesian] def which is money supply increase).

The real question remains; if you can reach it with your mouth, does it mean one must be shelving their heterosexuality?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:43 | 1054608 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

If you give an already drunk person his 16th shot can you tell the difference between the effects of that and his 15th?

How about if only give him water and actually take the real shot and put it into a closet somewhere?

 

Besides all else leaving a period of dramatic expansion,

how many buildings by you would not exist absent near free money?  Isn't modern cost accounting dictated by current and future rates and with the current near zero for years how many things were shelved for the future?

 

Massive over capacity not only with Chinese manufacturing but other stuff as well. Imbalances like the disconnect between the value of a home and the cost of the underlying raw materials will come back into parity at some point,

just don't see it coming from inflation of the value of the home and not deflation of the underlying costs of the raw mats.

 

The only problem I see with this idea is what the other guy posted, fighting the fed to the nth degree that seems hellbent on inflating out come hell or high water.

 

Yes I agree it seems at some point have to pay the piper for all the money but I think it will be protracted and not for a while,

how about 2017 minimum until the period of near free money actually catches up with the demand for what it created. It being a given that even if they haven't raised rates they raised standards which has had a minor tightening  effect.  Then maybe look the f out for higher than avg inflation?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:38 | 1054956 7againstThebes
7againstThebes's picture

Xb., you make a legitimate argument: if QE drives prices up, then the end of QE will result in prices falling.  This may happen.  You could right. But you are not making a distinction that should be made between inflation and hyperinflation.  The two are not the same.  It is not the case that if you keep going down the road of inflation, after a while you reach a place called “hyperinflation.”   Now, to be sure, you can reach hyperinflation via inflation, but it is important to think about what is really happening. Inflation is ever more money coming into the system. Hyperinflation, on the other hand, is something different.  It is a loss of confidence in money.   The two are not the same. Once confidence is lost, people want to get rid of bad money AND people also want to get rid of assets denominated in bad money.     

   Since everybody is throwing around analogies, here is mine.  It is raining.  The water is rising.  Then finally it stops raining.  “We’re safe. We’re safe. The water is going to stop rising.” [A roaring sound off stage.] “Oops, the dam upstream -- it just broke.” 

 When it comes to FRNs, there is a lot of water upstream held behind dams that are as shaky as heck.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:05 | 1054491 Orly
Orly's picture

"...rates go nowhere anytime soon as all the money fleeing those wonderful metals et al falling in price goes where it always goes when shit hits the fan-into US bonds."

 

Here's your Blue Ribbon.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:24 | 1054395 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

May be a good time to look at buying some TBT for the long term

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:27 | 1054400 prophet
prophet's picture

Fed meeting scheduled for tomorrow too.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:51 | 1054463 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Ides of March

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:29 | 1054405 prophet
prophet's picture

Will you Buy The Fukushima Dip? 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:35 | 1054425 prophet
prophet's picture

rare pacific side snow expected for Japan over the next 24 hours

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:51 | 1054455 chump666
chump666's picture

Bernanke won't do shit, yields are falling on the flight to safty.  most he will do is a major dollar swaps to Japan to try and bring their YEN down.  Because he is braindead, just means that the Japanese fuel prices will go ballistic

if anything central bankers should be alarmed at oil going upward ontop of massive position selling

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 01:53 | 1054468 jptejas
jptejas's picture

Oh my....fairvalue for SP is -26.54 as of right now. Not to mention Dow down almost 2% at 1amCST.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

I dont think I can recall seeing it that low....8:20 tomorrow ES is going to drop fast if FV doesnt change between now and then.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:29 | 1054533 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

and so with(by) the attrition of human spirit, the banking syndicate buys the world.

 

precursor to mad max.

 

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:47 | 1054550 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Marc Faber was correct once again, bitchez!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSclHbiBzmc (Treasury, dollar + US temp. saftey)

Gloom, Boom (JAPAN, HOLY SHIT!), DOOM! : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBaWaHsL5xk

You can't make this shit up!

I real economic sorcerer!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:53 | 1054560 Orly
Orly's picture

Cricket?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:55 | 1054565 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

hit your head? What's the problem?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:00 | 1054568 Orly
Orly's picture

You look remarkably like my daughter.  Kinda eerie, I'd say...

:D

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:05 | 1054575 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

WTF???

I am 20 years old. I didn't know you had to be a BABYBOOMER to participate on Zerohege!

I donated to ZH 2wice over the past week, (hope you all consider to throw a few $ Tyler's way for all his hardwork!).

Zerohege, best site on the net!

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:08 | 1054578 Orly
Orly's picture

Okay.  Talk about hit your head...

Remind me to ignore you completely, please.

Get some caffeine or something.  Jeesch.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:15 | 1054590 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I have 2 shots of espresso every morning before class, lol!

Seriously, ZH & Tyler are the best. ZeroHedge[dot]com = my anti-homework (proud to say my grades have not suffered adverse consequence!)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 06:53 | 1054730 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Your grades have not suffered while at the same time your knowledge has increased fourfold.  Win-win

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:36 | 1054965 au_bayitch
au_bayitch's picture

Bi-winning?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:29 | 1054599 jomama
jomama's picture

methinks 'she' is a he.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:44 | 1054624 Orly
Orly's picture

It's still nice to see my daughter from time to time.  Alas, she never calls...

:(

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 04:18 | 1054648 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

she seems very earnest.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 07:01 | 1054738 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

The Nikkei 225 was at 10,500+ when he said "Japanese Equities look attractive". It flashes on the screen. Sorcery?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:46 | 1054551 BT310
BT310's picture

The radioactivity is likely contained. Ben B.

A Japanese depression is highly unlikely. Dudley

Global Growth shall remain strong. Bullard.

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:28 | 1054598 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

"BTFD" Jim Cramer

"Thankfully the human loss is greater than the market losses"  Larry Kudlow.

"Hope and Change"  Obama

"This will not stand" Bush

"I did not have sex with that Woman" Clinton

"I'm not a crook" Nixon

"New Deal" FDR

What more do you need to know?

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:37 | 1054611 Broomer
Broomer's picture

Here in Brazil, there was this time when a child asked to our last nice dictator what he would do if he had to live on a minimum wage.

"I would put a bullet through my skull."

Other quotes from him:

* "I prefer the smell of my horses than that of the people."
* "The people are a beast of burden you pull by the reins."
* "A person who doesn't know how to brush their teeth cannot vote."
* "The solution to the slums is to drop an atom bomb."
* On leaving office: "May Mr. Tancredo make a good administration for them [the people]. And may they forget me."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo%C3%A3o_Figueiredo

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 06:59 | 1054736 cossack55
cossack55's picture

You forgot all of Teddy Roosevelts quotes along the lines of "If you are not a white, Anglo-Saxon=Black Forest Teuton, you ain't shit and need to be killed. The white race rules and we will continue our westering forever." Circa 1880-1910

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 12:56 | 1056172 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Screw the quotes, we had an integrated military when WW Wilso became POTUS.

He put a stop to that.( does you thank he be am racist?)

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 02:49 | 1054554 BT310
BT310's picture

Nothing to see here. There is ample liquidity to cool a nuclear reactor.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:24 | 1054596 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

FED announcement:

"We are buying Japan" (in not so many words).

Time to intiate "keiretsu" part II, we just need to start a conflict with someone...hmmm....

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:32 | 1054602 Orly
Orly's picture

North Korea looks vulnerable and we wouldn't have to travel so far.  Plus, we could put it on the Chinese and demonstrate to the world once and for all what a paper dragon it really is.

Problem is, we'd have to do it with nukes and the Japanese aren't very keen on irony, especially as it relates to radiation.

Let's go get Cuba, instead.  What say?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:43 | 1054626 Broomer
Broomer's picture

Now the crucial question: who would want to buy Japan?

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:43 | 1054619 props2009
Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:43 | 1054622 ivars
ivars's picture

There will be no devaluation of USD for at least 2 years. Hence, Stock market will crash. However, oil prices will move higher- and that is one of the reasons why stock market will eventually crash as second recession will be evident in coming in H2 2011 and in numbers in Q1 2012.

The DJIA graph I made on February 6th has accurately predicted not even market top at February 18th but even todays ( 11800?) DJIA value. That is about 1,5 month correct trend prediction in time and price, not bad. Also Oil graph is corrrect at predicting Oil prices peak in the end of February,  drop in middle March before going up again towards April.

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2608

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2609

May be even silver graph is correct- the up to 50% correction comes in end of March-Early April. May be because all plants using silver in production will be closed, or Japan will start selling gold reserves to pay for nuclear disaster.

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2673

 

 

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 03:47 | 1054630 unspoken
unspoken's picture

markets always have 1000 point swing days. until they don't. something about ides of march and ides of august. check 1999 or 2000ish years.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 04:23 | 1054651 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

nothing changes since "the market hasn't destroyed itself" and "therefore it's not about the market."  just a "down" or "up"..."day"--just in case however, alight the candles and say some prayers for that ancestor who "did that thing" 5000 years ago.  Uncle "something or so" i think is his name.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 04:48 | 1054659 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Flight to quantity.

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 05:02 | 1054668 taraxias
taraxias's picture

post of the day

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 05:25 | 1054680 Lowest Common D...
Lowest Common Denominator's picture

+100 to what Coldfire said.

 

It's all about the quantity...

 

If there aren't enough seats on any other lifeboats...

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 06:06 | 1054701 ivana
ivana's picture

so true

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 05:00 | 1054666 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Posted on blog Nov 2010 and Jan 2011:

The major correction in 2007/2008 was predicted by some market analysts including myself.

It was not a ‘Black Swan’ event that suddenly appeared out of nowhere.

The charts made it very clear back then what was ahead and they are doing so again.

My long term charts warn of another black swan market crash that 'nobody could have predicted‘

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Tue, 03/15/2011 - 08:58 | 1055036 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You aren't even right as often as a broken clock.

Wait a few days and see what comes of your "prediction".

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!