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10 Year Plunges To 2.86%, Stocks In Denial And 10 Points Rich To Intraday Fair Value
Once again stocks refuse to deal with reality, as the 10 Year has plunged to a shocking 2.88%. The treasury-bond convergence trade beckons again as stocks are about 10 points rich, with an ES fair value of about 1,055. Sell stocks, and sell the 10 Year.
Update: he divergence getting silly now: 10 Year all the way down to 2.86%, as even the DXY implies stocks should be about 10 lower.
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Well, looks like Ben is back at his terminal, fuckin' with stocks again. I can't wait until this shit comes unglued....
Ben just did the full split.....
http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/4761/splitch.jpg
It's getting pretty obvious that the herd is a little bit gun shy, wouldn't you say? I wonder what would happen if Ben picked his nose AND then ate it.
Flash Crash II courtesy of Ben's boogers.
Good heavens! I just saw a photo online of Ben and he looks like shit, future indicator?
I thought he looked terrible during his news conference at the WH. You should see the video on youtube. Looked like a man staring into the abyss.
The new paradigm: Buy on bad news, sell the good.
I just bought a box o' Ben's buggers.
They're great!
what's the best proxy by which to short the 10 year?
are u serious?
other than IEF
go buy SEP 10yr note (price not yield) futures... TYU0
or
TLT if you dont have access to futures
not quite yet wagefreedom...you still have to clear out the big money shorts...can you say 10y yields @ 2%
I say 2.5% on the quick burst when QE2 announced, but it might be a brief reaction before the long bear market in bond prices begins - as people realize that default is inevitable.
Trouble is, you'll get profits back in toilet paper money - you might win the battle but lose the war.
I don't think QE2 is coming anytime soon. The bond market will let the Fed know what to do, when it is ready. The natural process of deflation will take its toll, only interupted intermitently by policy decisions, until its over. I plan to be long gone before that moment and properly allocated in some shiny metal.
You wanna short the 10 year down here?
I'm only asking in reference to the treasury-bond convergence trade that TD is advocating here guys...
you lever up with PST...its pretty liquid
thanks Vince
This trade is for pros. If you don't have a futures account and don't want to sit up all night watching it, don't even think about it.
+100
Stick with your bond-tracking ETFs. Youll deal with gaps up and down, but just hedge it with a 1/2 long in spyders or Qs
How about shorting the 10-year? Low margin requirement, very liquid.
You can also short the futures.
"Sell stocks, and sell the 10 Year."
...sell you house, your car, your immobile possessions and get out of Dodge.
(or at least my reaction to the whole thing.)
I still have the car and a few possessions. House closed 5/12.
Head to the BUNKERS....u dont invest in an collapse thats coming...u head to the BUNKERS
Ben looks like one of those of those leather fag boys / bondage / S&M San Fransico types these days. Couldn't you see his ass in a pair of leather chaps gettin' it up the pipe. MAtter of fact he looks just like Freddy Mecury.
Bet we close green today... 33 Liberty is getting ready now to push us higher. Why not? America is buying iPhones at a record rate....
I want you for my financial advisor!
I like the word "bet" being used to make money.
2.88% compensation for 10 years of risk exposure? Deflation wins.
of course deflation wins. It's the natural outcome of a long credit contraction.
Advise our clients interested in bellies to buy at 64. Mr Valentine has set the price.
I need to buy my kid the G.I. Joe with the kung fu grip!!
CNBC is chopping up the testimony with commentary to reduce the impact on the retail buyers
And now for the obligatory rally into the close.
Market will rally into the close....Ben says BUY BUY BUY
Cramer agrees.
OT, anyone out there know why all the AT&T cell towers are down in North and South Carolina since this morning? Did Verizon take out some towers? Did Bin Laden strike in hillbilly land? lol
North Carolina hillbilly land?? Phuck off. Home of research triangle park and some of the best colleges and hospitals in the nation.
...and men in organge jump suits as well, I presume.
Who love AAPL.
I only defend apple when people post shit that makes no sense. I've been right so far. I've never initiated a comment about apple.
Whatever bro. Hope you're hedged.
Why don't you lay your case out, and then we will look at the numbers.
LOL.
I guess if youre talking about community colleges
Yay, good ole' Wake County, when are you going to give the other counties their money back you borrowed for all those Interstate 40 repairs and expansions? Ahh I see, you are waiting for Obama to pay it.
You would think as big and great as RTP is, they wouldn't be indebted to counties with far less. Guess that is the system these days, borrow from the little guys and default paying them back. Sounds like government to me.
I'm not defending Wake County. You are off on a tangent.
I-40 construction is NCDOT funds. What you're really complaining about is inherent redistribution of road use and gasoline taxes, which is not unique to Wake County or NC.
Technological center of the state, lots of people driving there, lots of road use. It "makes sense" the major interstate feeding the area would need a lot of work a lot more often than other areas. 85 and 77 into Charlotte is the same story. I put "makes sense" in quotes because it only makes sense under the idiotic system of road use taxes. Most interstate highways could be toll roads within a year and these problems would be moot.
But yeah, calling NC hillbilly land is silly. It ain't Hee-Haw out here unless you get way, way into the woods. Even then, every state with a few exceptions has some pretty interesting folks living way, way in the woods. Don't let the drawl fool ya.
you're making fun of my avatar? seriously??
bernanke would fit right in at a Politburo meeting
http://www.douchebagreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Vladimir_Lenin_by_Adrian87.jpg
Sometimes the PPT has to be content with small victories. SPY stopped falling around 3:00 while TLT continued to rocket upwards. And this was after TYX had already closed at 3.901.
Hmmmm, last time TLT was this high was April, 2009.
And the other time was 1967...
Where's the goldbugs when I need them?
Dollars bitchez, not the "precious."
Where is the gold bugs? I is here. May I help you?
Take note: one of your precious is about to fall out.
Long on that PMS.
Interesting 2-day charts there.
ES is positive while 10yr yields are down 8bps.
So much for the short equity + short bonds trade.
Markets can diverge longer than you can stay solvent.
Interesting question. For those who soreadbet how do you work out the ratio on this?
ES = 1067, TY = 123.56
So, in theory you should place 8.6 units of the ten year to 1 unit of the ES.
But in spread betting, you are placing a trade per pip move or per point move not per the dollar value of the instrument so...
?
.....and I was led to believe treasuries were in a bubble. please.
So why is this happening? Who would trust the US government/treasury to risk so much for such measly yields?
Answer:
but more importantly is that the USTs are not purchased for yield or security but are speculated on for their price rise. Similar to stocks with their dividend yield or RE for their appreciation and NOT for their rental income (at least during the good times).
Seems like you're contradicting yourself:
.....and I was led to believe treasuries were in a bubble. please.
followed by:
the USTs are not purchased for yield or security but are speculated on for their price rise.
Is not the mass purchase of an asset based on speculation of price rises the very definition of a bubble?
(Lacking - as yet - the benefit of the hindsight of the backside of the bubble)
Or perhaps was the first comment tongue-in-cheek?
(noting and agreeing with Bam_Man's comment below - that the bursting of this Ponzi scheme's bubble will mostly likely turn out to be much more... violent... than the bursting of the housing bubble.)
OK let me rephrase that.
UST's are not [just] purchased for yield or security but [also] for [anticipated] price rise. One mans speculation is another mans prudent investment. In an economy where security trumps yield, backed by a strong, liquid currency and issued by histories largest and richest empire, then I guess it makes good sense to remain in good company. Gordon Gekko would either spew or cry reading that.
Same can be said about gold no it's not tongue in cheek.
Get your mind around a global debt deflation spiral, in which drops in confidence cause a rush to safety. Gold and Treasuries are both at elevated levels. These are not conflicting signals about inflation vs. deflation. They are both symptoms of global fears of widespread insolvency and a loss of principal due to the inability to service debts. They are both indicating global deflation, which is driving capital into the safe havens of gold, USD, and USTs.
You can geniunely say "Gold/Treasuries, bitches!" right now.
QE2 by the Fed, should it be announced, is more likely to be targeted towards non US sovereign debt. That is politically challenging, so it may take the form of qualitative easing, e.g. selling Treasuries/Agencies and taking on foreign currencies through swap lines. If such a scenario were to happen, you would see spreads come in across the board, while gold and treasuries fell.
P-u-u-lease. The "stock market" has already been de facto nationalized. Ditto the bond market.
Anyone expecting to see any semblance of reality in either one (until total collapse of the entire Ponzi) is going to be repeatedly disappointed.
I agree with Bam_Man. Right now the 'markets' are a fiction. Big banks have big computers playing hot potato with shit (shares) and hoping a sucker or two steps in to be the bagholder for the steaming pile.
Anyone see BLK get smacked up today? ouch!
Who is in charge of that firm?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOXa-PGG7xo
"I'm one of the baddest mofo's of all time, one of the best singers AND one of the best lookin' mofo's you ever seen....Hold my drink bitch."
DOW chart update :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
The 2 year is the most mind blowing chart I've seen in all of
since way back
like way way back
to 2008.
AUDJPY movie again tonight. Time to buy a cat.
286 bp's until you can line up to buy tsy's and PAY the Treasury for the privilege.