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10.2% Unemployment; 190,000 Jobs Lost
From Bloomberg:
Payrolls fell by 190,000 workers last month, compared with
a 175,000 drop anticipated by the median forecast of economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department
showed today in Washington. The jobless rate gained from 9.8
percent in September and exceeded 10 percent for the first time
since 1983.
Revisions added 91,000 from payroll figures previously
reported for September and August.
Payrolls were forecast to drop 175,000 after an initially
reported 263,000 decline for September, according to the median
estimate of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates
ranged from decreases of 250,000 to 105,000.
The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.9 percent.
Forecasts ranged from 9.8 percent to 10.1 percent.
Monthly losses accelerated after the collapse of Lehman
Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008 and peaked at 741,000
in January.
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17.5% U6
I'm sort of surprised that U-6 isn't higher. Perhaps the new census that is being done will inflate the population thus pushing the % of jobless lower; we can't create jobs but we can create new statistics!
0.5% jump in a month from an already big number.
Bingo...
surprise surprise. and we're supposed to expect these numbers to improve after the holidays? all the commentators calling a 10% bottom are (and now were) off their rocker.
No surprise. Expect employment to remain flat through Q1 with a likely drop in Q2 and not even begin to recover until 2011. No one except MSM and Team Obama are buying this recovery. CEO's remain cautious and will continue to do so until purchasing improves.
Unless, of course, the Q1 numbers severely disappoint. Then it could be a REAL bloodbath.
Oh, don't worry. The day is young. I'm sure we'll see the usual ramp up on no volume, media calling this green shoots and stocks like AIG, Fannie, Freddie and BAC up double digits.
true dat. FNM is available at a 12.5% discount pre-open. Whattya figure, up 30% from there?
It took all of 15 minutes for the markets to turn positive.
I agree. I just saw a newswire comment from Associated Press saying that the situation is good because it is all about the dollar. If the unemployment is high, this means that FED will not be in a hurry to raise interest rates, which can translate into further stock market gains as well as incresed profits for the companies that do business overseas. Even though the situation looks bleak from the consumer standpoint (a major component of the US economy), the situation is not bad because it's all about the dollar.
The market will go up later today. They just laid off the the guy who turns them for the pre-market action
Also from John William's site "Quarterly GDP Growth Is Not Sustainable, with 92% of Growth in Nonrecurring Factors / Annual GDP Down 2.3% -5.7% SGS measure"
Here's a spin for CNBS: "More encouraged workers head back to seek jobs, thus increasing unemployment rate figures."
LOL
Merrills sales people reckon its "only 15k more people lost their jobs out of a population of 300m - get some perspective here" - never mind that its complete b/s and the birth death model added some 86k jobs - how come GE didnt buy ML? perfect fit the thundering herd and the perma bulls(hit).
HA! D, you have the wit!
Bloomie TV is finding "silver lining" mouthpieces to sell this shit.
Is anybody really surprised by this?
Nobody is working, yet retailers expect solid earnings this holiday season. Can somebody please explain this?
Not paying your mortgage frees up $1500/mo to spend on Crimmas presents.
Christmas is getting a government bailout.
I am shocked. Nobody fudged the number to 9.9% & adjusted it later. Shocked.
+100
Hi T-Bone. Its all part of the consumer's bear market (or reverse) "rinse & repeat" process. In other words on the way down, when losing everything (house, car, credit, cash reserves, 201K, etc) one goes out with a "bang". Every go bankrupt?
When one is $80,000 in credit card debt, bankruptcy is inevitable and there is only $3,000 left in "juice" the mentality is to "bang it out".
Retailers will benefit with that very last bit of credit left but there is no production to back it up.
These credit dollars will get charged off and the deleveraging process with continue as credit continues to evaporate into what Becky Quick calls "money heaven".
BOGUS Birth/Death Model added EIGHTY-SIX THOUSAND PHANTOM JOBS!!!!!
The Bank "stress test "may need to be re-looked at !
I am shocked the Gov't let the #'s go above 10%!!
Hey, at least we can count on more "improvement" in productivity numbers now, right? This is nothing but good for companies, guys. Rally on.
It's so bad that's the best it can do,
They need to grease a few more palms. This is the only way they can get Stimulus II(tm). I have a threory! Maybe its the nobel prize committee that sets the world's agenda! Look, paul krugman says we need stimulus II, so everyone listens to that guy cause he got a nobel prize. Now obama has one, so, soup to nuts. (yes I'm joking, but it is a little suspicious!)
That is no more shocking than the FDIC was allowed to announce nine bank closures last week. I was kind of expecting those #s to be fudged forever more as well.
HA HA. Captcha says cannot use three characters for answer to BLANK plus -29 = -57.
Can't make this stuff up folks.
OOPS! Double post.
Silly me. 8>)
Nice. Another capitalist on the way up and socialist on the way down. Do you work for GS?
Nope, I work for B. HO!.
Its called unemployment benefits. Not much longer though, start a new job 11/16. Its about darn time too, 11 months and I was starting to get quite used to being home all day. :-)
*applauds* good work then, and good luck.
I finally got a hold of someone on base who could help me cut through the "red-tape" regarding my hearing problem. Once that was done, it has been a piece-of-pie, easy-as-cake.
Now I got to sit through seven days of government orientation. Guess a lot of coffee and some toothpicks to hold my eyelids up will be mandatory! 8-)
Average duration of unemployment 29.6 weeks-all time high.
Hours worked 33- another low
adjusted last month's #- + 30K - Did GS know that ?
They said 33 weekly working-hour is productivity improvement.
You knew this was going to be bad when Obama wasn't out there yesterday touting his job on the economy like he has done in previous months.
He is not insider trader.
WHEN IS THIS MADNESS GOING TO STOP GEITNER SHOULD BE FIRED
Given that Timmy cheated on his taxes and got found out and still got the job, I suspect that Timmy is gonna have to be caught running dog fights to lose his job over at the Tsy.
"Market not shooting up for some reason." Tyler, I just love you man.
PS. I am a 6'4" 250 lb Moldavian boy, so don't take that literally.
Me thinks some more stimulus is in order.
update on the debt ceiling:
http://www.charter.net/news/read.php?id=16007886&ps=1014&srce=morenews_c...
Treasury expects debt limit will be hit in Dec.just in time for xmas.
Actually, the market shot up, yesterday, in anticipation of this, worse than expected, report.
As an aside, I turned on Kudlow, for a few minutes, last night. The first words I heard come out of his mouth were, "I've been bullish all year." Does this guy have any self-awareness? He's been bullish all year EVERY YEAR.
The reason why they let it go pass 10% is obviously to pave the way for more stimulus, and engineer a U-turn on all those talk about an exit from QE by March 2010. Stim 2 and QE 2 would be passed before Christmas, and we would have the Jan effect on all risky assets once again. Long Live Brobama
"Market not shooting up for some reason."
Euro is shooting up after initial shock. Can the Euro drag SPY up .. again?
Moldavian boy? lol Does Moldova still exist? Or is it now Romania or something? Boy, how they distroyed everything in that area...
The rumors should start flying around 2:00 about meetings in Washington concerning an immediate STIMULUS 2.0. Why not go them one step further and just declare a "Day of Jubilee". That would double the stock market in about a week.
Seems you and others have the right idea here:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_YGLQQZTHoU0/SpFGSbi2lFI/AAAAAAAAJpE/0yx7m79I5v...
Maybe if xmas doesn't work out the feds can create a new holiday called festivus (brought to you by BAC, WFC, JPM) for january and we can try again.
Haha, what cracks me up is how ZH and most of the regulars have exactly the same behaviour of jumping to conclusions on the latest datapoint du jour - only with the inverse spin to it. Nobody talking about the fact previous claims were revised down huh? Strange, when they are revised up everyone jumps on the bandwagon about the lying government! Well I guess confirmation bias applies not only to the MSM...
Tyler , could you please post an updated chart of the president's projection of the stimulus aided unemployment rate vs reality.
Nobody was wearing their 10% hats today why not?
Short squeezes continue.
09:45 am : Weighed down by a disappointing jobs report, stocks started the session in negative territory, but they have since made a strong, upward move to positive territory.
Amid the upturn, shares of retailers are garnering particular support. As a group, retailers are up 1.5%. That's giving a lift to the consumer discretionary sector, which is up a solid 0.6%.
Nothing says "Go Shopping" like 25-year high unemployment.
Anyone see the inventory number as released on BBerg. Initial print showed a growth of 0.9% - market put on a small bounce. Seconds later they added the negative sign - mkt held the gain. I wish I was the data input idiot at BBerg - it would happen far more frequently!
Tyler-you spoke too soon.
10.2 is fantastic news! That means the stock market has to go up 25 points on the DOW! And that means all those unemployed people are buying crude oil too. And that means they have cash to buy gold. And that means they want to drink $4 lattes at starbucks surfing monster.com on their Kindles. This is BULLISH people, bullish. Unemployed people have nothing to do but buy stuff
AS an aside, employment weakness means cheap labor, and that means lower costs for these companies. Labor being the number 1 cost of any company, the corps has to smash labor and the US citizen into submission
I just looked at the data (U1) from the BLS website. Granted I'm only looking at 25 and older data, and probably going a horrible job of it, but it appears the overall civilian labor force grew slightly, with gains in those with "some college/AA" and "Bachelor's and higher" offset by shrinking (assuming discouragement) in those w/ a HS diploma or less. Unemployment grew across all groups without at least a Bachelor's degree, from 10.4% to 10.8% (seasonally adjusted). Interestingly enough, even though the labor force increased for those w/ degrees, unemployment dropped from 4.9% to 4.7%, more or less in the 4%-5% range its been in since February. What I don't have are the number of hours worked or wages/salaries, which should give an indication at utilization, or where it is they are working (is this a residual influence from the *sticks finger in the air* "Jobs saved or created" report, bunch of college grads got hired to flip burgers and dig ditches...?). No less, though, this should give you a general indication of direction, especially when you take into consideration levels of disposable income and home ownership rates.
***In no way to I present myself an expert on this subject, and I fully expect someone with vastly superior abilities to blast the shit out of everything I've said.***
Interesting enough, men are first to go over comparable women. If there was a salary gap, women are now benefiting from being cheaper labor. In fact most of my unemployed friends are men and pulling the Mr. Mom routine.
The Market is shooting up now
here's cnbc's reaction to today's jobless numbers, check out leesman getting owned around the 10 min. mark.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1321166174&play=1
!!!
As much as seeing Leisman get owned was funny, who is that absolute RETARD at the 11min mark saying this is a totally 'unambiguous improvement' with the job report?? Santelli proceeds to own him good.
I couldn't believe that moron, "We should tip our hat to the Fed," "Remember where we were six months ago."
great clip of leesman getting ripped for his take on today's numbers around 10 min into the clip
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1321166174&play=1
Dammit Anon122135... Don't you know that Festivus will be paid for by the rest of us..... Tiny Tim "Dead and Loving it Renfield" won't have it any other way!
remember that BLS are going to add another 800k jobs lost to the figure in februrary, as part of their standard revision(which was 4x higher than the standard revision) which adds an extra .6 percent. I think this is recalculated in February.
33 hour weeks and 10% unemployed, you guys are turning into France. better than us Brits, we are heading down the Iceland path...