10yr approaching breakout

naufalsanaullah's picture

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Mitchman's picture

Spanish banks are already suspicious of each other's balance sheets 

We had a big debate here recently about STD.  What's your view of how exposed they are?

berated's picture

Dude--trust me--you don't want ANY exposure to STDs....

Mitchman's picture

I will happily take your advice in respect of every interpretation of the symbol...

PBRmeASAP's picture

Yes, the Bond Chart looks bad. Yes, the 50 DMA is threatening to cross the 200 DMA... and SPX1040 is the level that every HFT algo will sell on... But guess what? The Sun will rise in the East tomorrow. Life moves on, and people will still buy food and energy... so the economy will not grind to zero. Every time somebody tells me the World is going to End; It doesn't. ZH is the best site on the planet, but I will only Truly Worry when I see Bullishness on this site!

jeff montanye's picture

there was a touch of bullishness in late april/early may.  some were buying stocks like aapl and bp for known expenses in the next month.

AUD's picture

"10 yr approaching breakout"

So what? a trendline through the 10yr for the last 12 months shows yields increasing.

Credit spreads are still waaaay wider than before the '08 crash, fear still stalks the money market. There is little chance of another bond panic. Will the stockmarket go down? maybe, central banks seem to be happy with the current situation i.e. little credit pumping, but no panic either.

Nihilarian's picture


Call me when yields are breaking out when equities are 50% off of current levels.

Kreditanstalt's picture

"a selloff through the 310bps level could be game over for equities and commodities..."

Er....would someone please remind me why commodities are somehow regarded as a "risk play"?  Wouldn't a logical person want to hold these as a hedge against downside currency risk?

Or...don't those idiots SEE a currency risk? 

Augustus's picture

The problem is that you cannot really hold most commodities.  They are bought to be used, not stored and degraded by spoilage.  A better way to go at the commodities, if you believe the inflation story will eventually come to pass after the banks go bust, would be to own unproduced commodities in the form of miners or timber.

Kreditanstalt's picture

The correlations seem to change from week to week these days...hard to keep up with them.

mcguire's picture

new greenspan editorial in wsj, says among other things that we are the new greece... but an interesting comment on fickle bond yeild action relevant to this discussion. 



mcguire's picture

also, fundamentals in the bond market could reflect deflationary fundamentals... but per greenspan arguments, and pretty much according to most on this site, there seems no possible alternative to QE2 senarios... and if that is the case, the 10 year is not a really good instrument to hold.

just as an alternate explanation, the rally in the bond market, and esp. if a breakout does occur, may be indicating instead an anticipated "flight to quality" rather than just a deflationary event... ie. euro implosion, or worse, another false flag attack.

dcb's picture

tlt just broke out of a flag pattern to the upside.

Kreditanstalt's picture

The flight to bonds reflects desperation only...

ozziindaus's picture

.....and uncertainty just like USD and Gold

VFR's picture

In this tightly knit community I read and understand all I can. At times though I get lost and just wonder how many people can actually follow what is happening.

It reminds me of when a friend of mine had to give a weekly presentation of current and forecasted profits to a group of heavy weight investors. Manned with the usual charts he talked for 10 minutes before one wet behind the ears young guy, amongst the room of 25 (some whispering amongst themsleves , others using blackberries)  piped up. "Hang on a  moment 'is this the world weather forecast or somnething" :-) :-)

"Oh!" replied my mate "indeed it is, I'm glad someone is paying attention, I've been doing this weekly briefing every week for 11 weeks now and was beginning to wonder if anyone ever listened!, shall we start again?. "

I really hope someone really understands what is going on because I just get teh feeling that Grandma's knitting is not all it could be and it could all just fall apart very soon.



ozziindaus's picture

The Bond market is to Equities what the Equities are to the Economy. Therefore look to the bond market to be two steps ahead of the economy.