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I think we'll get one last gasp up in Treasury yields on a QEII - perhaps to 2.5% on the 10-year. And then it will dawn on buyers that the US will politely default (see the posting the other day) or we have a nice hyper-inflationary collapse of the currency. Either way, not many buyers today are going to get paid back as they expect.
They'll probably get paid in US Treasury Dollars, which will be equivalent to $1,000 old Federal Reserve Dollars. Once QE2 stuffs every piece of toxic crap in the universe inside the Fed, it will be put out of its misery...
The fact that GS issues the same chart analysis means the guys at shadowcap made a mistake.
The Australia-China-USA "love triangle", for the last few months its been the Australia China - love in.
Most Aussies have no idea whats coming they are too busy buying houses that never go down, coz its different here cobber.
Yeah we got lots of sheep down here..
That's alright there's lots of Cobbers to go around as
the Canadian market has seen double digit increases
in the housing costs based on nothing more than greed
and speculation. Oh gee look April's growth came in flat
in Canada.Oh look home sales in Toronto in May were down 20%
from the previous month with a 21% increase in listings.
It's a bitch when everyone try's to leave a burning building at
the same time.
Out of curiosity, where do you get the numbers?
Ohh come on, where's your Aussie spirit? Only pricks burst bubbles.
But i have to agree and so does SteveNYC. Too bad those brickies, taxidrivers and sparkies with their 3 investment properties don't see beyond their next job.
How true mate...how sadly true.
Talk about moving your goal posts... these are on wheels.
The USD 10 yr is entering bubble territory based on fear trades and market manipulation. The short of the century will occur if the yield drops below 2.5% Disclosure, I am flat on the 10yr.
I think the flight to safety may, in the end, closely resemble the rush to the showers to get cleaned at Auschwitz.
I don't have any alternatives to this trade but I think that there are no "risk free" investments and we are just waiting to see which countries blow up first.
The US is a few years away from being at risk of all tax revenues being required to service the debt (can't remember the article saying that on ZH, but it was in last few days).
I have been doing the math for a couple of years but basically by 2018 or so, we will probably hit 20 Trillion in (on the books) debt. If the average coupon rises to 10% (could happen, it has in Greece) that requires 2 Trillion/year in debt service. That's basically everything the US govt takes in. Game Over.
Can we prevent this? Sure. Will we? No sign of any changes yet. The question is can QE erode the value of debt faster than market raises interest rates.
Some good stuff. Thanks for sharing.
The first page of the report states "...is not the product of the Global Investment Research Department or Fixed Income Research. It is not a research report and is not intended as such." The takeaway here on my end is to pay attention to GS's "non-research" documents, and ignore the formal research reports.
I'll take EOQ window-dressing for $1 billion, Alex.
Got coupons? Got duration? If not, you got some 'splainin' to do . . .
Paging Mr. Taleb, paging Mr. Nassim Taleb: your ass-whuppin' is waiting. LOL.
Boy, look at SP500 Nas100 and R2000 charts. Just haning there, baby. Hanging there like overripe fruit, below their resistance.
Dow 9700 area has alwasy been a big resistance up or down, going back a decade. The PPT must defend. If it goes, so too we all will go.
Except shorts, who will be loving it. Just watch out for counterparty risk.
Please step forward, all those who rode eur/chf all the way down.
Is there anyone?
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