Of The 11 Million Mortgage Holders Underwater Backed By $2.9 Trillion In Mortgage Debt.

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Dr. Housing Bubble

Owning with no equity is just renting with no mobility. 11 million mortgage holders underwater backed by $2.9 trillion in mortgage debt. In California, close to 20 percent of mortgage holders underwater by 25 percent or more.

I think the concept of owning a home is undergoing a radical paradigm
shift.  Owning conveys a sense that you actually have tangible equity
in a property.  This has always been the connotation of ownership in our
society.  In the past it did mean something because of decent down
payment requirements that built in an equity buffer when people bought. 
Even when I attend conferences and events when someone tells me that
they purchased a home in the last few years, most of the group
automatically assumes that the person somehow has an automatic buffer of
equity in the home.  Unless you live under a rock, we all know that
over the past decade most of the popular loans required very little to nothing down
This is a radical shift to the home buying structure.  Yet psychology
is a very powerful thing when it comes to home buying and the mythology
of the American Dream which is inextricably linked up to owning a home
(for better or worse).  Yet is it factual to call it ownership if you
have no equity?  What about millions that now face having a mortgage
that is underwater?  Today I’m going to examine new housing data
provided by the Census and look at the current status of underwater
mortgage holders.

Owning with no equity is renting with no mobility

First we should take a look at the entire housing situation in America:

us housing market data

Source:  Census, CoreLogic

The
number of mortgage holders in the U.S. fell on a year over year basis. 
This isn’t good news because we also see the number of those with no
mortgage and owning a home falling (this number fell by 195,000).  The
number of homes with a mortgage fell by 867,000.  What happened?  What
occurred is the massive number of foreclosures.  A large number of the questionable mortgages
are falling into distress and people are still losing their homes.  The
trend is still moving along like a bullet train.  It does take years
for the mentality of people to change their entrenched views on a
strongly held belief.  After all, how can you claim to be a homeowner
and actually have no equity in your property?  The recent numbers are
startling for many reasons.

If we combine underwater homeowners
with renters, we will find that in the U.S. we have virtually the same
number of homeowners with equity as we do with renters combined with
negative equity mortgage holders.  This is a giant shift in thinking
here since the generally accepted idea is that in the U.S. we are a
large home owning nation when in fact, we are largely a debt owning
nation.  If we look at the actual nominal value of mortgage debt, the
amount of mortgage debt underwater is $2.9 trillion:

percent of underwater mortgage debt vs total mortgage debt

Source:  Federal Reserve

29
percent of all mortgage debt ($2.9 trillion) is underwater.  This is
incredible given that the number of underwater mortgages amounts to 22
percent of all mortgages which tells us that there are some big loans
skewing the figure here.  In fact, we can see this when the numbers are
broken down further:

negative equity mortgages

Source:  CoreLogic

Of
the 11 million mortgages underwater, 10 percent (1.1 million) are
underwater by 25 percent or more!  These loans are setup for
foreclosures.  No market is going to recover 25 percent in the near
future.  So what will happen to these 1.1 million active underwater
mortgages?  As you can see from the chart above, you also have many in
the -5, -10, and -20 percent equity ranges as well.  In other words,
these people basically rent their home with no mobility.  If they want
to move, they would actually have to bring money to the table.  And
given the massive number of toxic mortgages
in the market, the worst of the worst underwater mortgages are in
states that Wall Street lovingly dubs “sand states” or Nevada, Arizona,
California, and Florida:

negative equity amount in top states

The
above chart should give you a good understanding of why some states
will have much tougher housing markets moving forward.  It is incredible
that 50 percent of all underwater mortgages in Nevada are underwater by
at least 25 percent.  In California that number is closer to 25
percent.  But run the numbers:

California housing data

California underwater mortgages:                                                            1,724,774

California underwater mortgages -25% equity or more:                               344,954

We
can almost guarantee that those 344,000 mortgages will default in the
next year or two.  The 1.7 million mortgages are also in this risky
pool.  So in many respects this large group here has it worse off than a
renter.  What if a new job opportunity came up in a different
location?  Or out of state?  Their mobility is completely constrained. 
Being underwater by 25 percent or more in California will likely mean
they are underwater by tens of thousands (or even hundreds of thousands)
of dollars.  Since many bought with no or low money down mortgages, it is likely that they do not have the funds to make this deal happen even if they wanted to.

The sand states also have the biggest problems moving forward:

negative equity mobility

Nevada
is so bad it is literally by itself far to the right.  But California
by sheer size has the largest nominal amount of these mortgages.  In
California just by statistics you can say that every one out of three
people that tell you they are a homeowner is likely underwater.  And
every one out of five of those people is underwater by at least 25
percent.  We look at certain examples even in more select cities and we realize that this is happening all over the place
And what if home prices fall as we expect in the next year?  Then more
people will find that they are now in the position of renting their home
from the bank and not having any equity.  Isn’t that renting in a
nutshell?  Plus, what metrics are they using to claim homes being
underwater?  They are being too generous in many areas that still are
largely in bubbles.

And keep in mind in many of these higher
priced areas renting is much cheaper than buying even with multi-decade
low interest rates.  You also have to ask why do we as a nation so
heavily subsidize home buying.  For many Americans, the tax breaks from
owning a home are minimal because of already built in standard
dedications (plus the fact that they live in more moderately priced
areas – the median home price in the U.S. is roughly $179,000).  Yet
someone in California who purchases gets an overwhelmingly high subsidy
to buy (forget about the extremely wealthy that have giant advantages in
terms writing off interest and other deductions).

I am happy to
say that many more people are becoming more comfortable with the notion
of renting and will only buy if it makes sense.  You will always have
people especially here in California that will view a broke homeowner in
a better status than a wealthy renter.  Just like I’m sure many of you
know folks who lease BMWs and live in tiny apartments.  That you can’t
change.  But you also can’t change the fact that owning with no equity
is basically renting with no freedom to move without forking money over
to the bank.  Hard to think of something more American than freedom.