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114 Times More Insider Selling Than Buying In First Week Of 2011
After insiders closed off 2010 with just 19x more selling than buying, they have greeted 2011 with a ratio of selling to buying of 114x, a decent pick up in dumping. Specifically there were 4 purchases in the first week of 2011 in S&P 500 names, for a total of $2.5 million in notional. This was offset by $290 million in sales, in 86 transactions. The only notable purchase in the last week was in ATI, which has continued to see insider buying for the past month. The selling side is far more interesting, and here we can see ongoing dumping of Google, MCK, Qualcomm, Ford, HP, Carnival, CSX, and so forth. Luckily for the PDs and the Fed, the retail hot grenade lemmings are finally stepping in, because it was unclear how much longer the HFTs could keep the market from crashing again.
Source: Bloomberg
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Where are the insiders putting this money? PM?
Alberta ranchland
They're building their cash positions because they know the banks are f'ed and won't be lending anytime soon.
Thank heavens the Fed is buying via POMO though, otherwise my longs in Netflix, Amazon and Bed, Bath, and Beyond would be screwed.
Tie is a shell game. 4 linked companies
Buying/Selling ratios like this are only significant in a stock 'market'.
We do not have a market and it should not be called as such, so this information is irrelevant.
What we have is simply a numerical gauge which bears no resemblance to the underlying principles that we are told it is suppose to gauge. This gauge and it's current position is completely controlled by a handful of criminal entities, mainly the FED.
By playing this gauge, you are effectively guessing where the FED has pre-determined the ball is going to land for the day. Guessing = gambling, not investing.
End of lesson.
I am not well versed in the stock market ponzi but serious question: who is buying if there is this much selling? Also I need some ZH advice. Is there any ETF analogous to PSLV for gold? I have an IRA that I would like to invest into physical gold. any advice is appreciated.
PHYS
Also GTU, which is a bit less liquid than PHYS, trades at a bit lower premium to NAV, and lacks the disadvantage that if someone redeems physical gold from PHYS at a profit, I believe that the remaining PHYS stockholders take a tax hit. Since you are investing through an IRA, I doubt you are planning to be one of the redeemers/converters (it takes mucho $$ to do so).
Well, the stats, like the one in the above article indicate there are many more sellers than buyers and has been for some time, even as the market goes higher and higher.
Does there actually need to be any buyers for the market to go higher like it has done? Only if the market actually had oversight, it does not. Has anyone actually checked that the DOW value actually mathematically adds up to the sum of it's components? Same for S&P? Same for FTSE, etc? The FTSE is at highs, yet, a major component of it, BP., is way off it's highs of last year, is this really possible, have other components really managed to make up for the shortfall of a huge company like BP?
Does it all add up is the question. Does anyone actually audit these things?
It's all a scam. Like i said it's just a gauge, i don't think anything needs to add up, accounting wise, anymore.
Indeed, someone is buying and someone is selling. It's not very difficult to walk up prices of stocks as long as there aren't any big sellers. For example, the prop desks at JPM could buy GOOG from the prop desk at GS at an elevated (and unjustified price). GS, in turn, agrees to buy NFLX from JPM at an equally outlandish price. This would lead to higher prices in both securities and a wash (as far as Profit/Loss) for the conspiritors.
BTW,great avatar. I miss Bill. His "meaning of life" was perhaps the most prescient soliloquy by a comedian, ever.
Here it is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B413NljCwI
CEF
whos buying......OUTSIDERS
The irony being that, despite this more insider selling than buying ratio has been high for some time, the stock market keeps rising and not falling.. (and suckers are shorting).
Denominator effect FTW.
But yeah...
How is there anything left to sell?
In general, everyone is an optimist at the end of everything. However big a contrarian one may be, it was difficult to imagine the amount of carnage possible in 2008 -- and one kept on only in pieces, following the trend lower and lower. So with that shortcoming of human nature that everyone, including yours truly, is a long-term bull because it's built universally in our DNA, the enclosed chart is a difficult-to-digest reality staring straight in my eyes.
This shows a ratio of the MXASJ index divided by the SP1 index. The uptrend line of the last two years of this so-called liquidity-crazed bull market is broken.
The recent rebound in this ratio chart is struggling at the trendline, which is now acting as a resistance. If this week's trading doesn't bring the return of out-performance to Asia, I see it as a serious danger sign for every bull everywhere in this world.
Logic is simple. The higher operating leverage of Asian economies makes them fundamentally higher-beta and not just higher-growth economies. So if SP1 is mentally visualized as the benchmark index for the whole world -- given that 60% of the total world market capitalization of equities is still American -- a higher-beta stock in traditional CAPM would run up faster or decline faster in respective expansionary and declining phases. The higher-beta stocks make their tops and bottoms ahead of the "average," which keeps rising further with the laggards getting sought into. Once the laggards also stop finding enough buyers, then markets, as a rule, make their tops due to absence of more fools to buy in. (Similarly, at bottoms the fools have stopped selling, which is why bottoms get made not because of smart buyers stepping in).
So, if Asian out-performance as plotted on this chart is not working anymore with the massive divergence in RSI of the ratio, the traditional TD indicators being in place for now, and yes, the Elliott wave analysis also pointing to a high-probability top formation, the quarter ahead could bring about a confirmation of the end of this liquidity-induced bull market.
Why isn't it true that at the top there's a perception of the largest amount of money, and at the bottom graveyards burst open and stock certificates, not ghosts, start pouring out? I know this is a strongly worded note, driven more out of the fear I'm feeling for the coming year than by a rational analysis.
I wish it was possible for a human being to not be an optimist. The level of destruction that's possible with the sort of declines that may come world over are clearly measuring in similarity to the 2008 decline, but could also be much worse.
Please treat this as a strong early warning sign which must be confirmed by market action of at least the next one week and better still next two weeks. If this trendline is not broken upwards again and a further decline in Asia comes this week that is bigger than the decline in the USA or if a rise in Asiain in the next two weeks is smaller than the rise in the USA, then consider me having stretched out my neck calling for a top in the outperformance of Asia. Yes, I know only fools and liars have been known to catch the tops and bottoms.
Outperformance or under-performance is a rate of change, similar in nature to the acceleration or deceleration. As a car turns direction, velocity goes to zero before becoming negative. Acceleration peaks out ahead of velocity becoming zero. So as the top in this relative performance is confirmed in the next two weeks, one will have to keep minds open for one more final high coming in late February or early March in the actual prices themselves.
Annus mirabilis could be managed for just two years. If the problems of this universe could be solved by just churning the mints all over the globe through the day and night, then there would be no need for anyone to work hard, for anyone to work smart, or for any other action required by mankind to seek prosperity, peace, and progress. QE2 is a slogan that's still beating around the street. To me it seems the smart money is off the table. It's another thing if there's really any smart money in these times at all. Logically the biggest flight of capital in recorded history happened during the strong winds of 2008, the greenback soared against all logic and the value of technical analysis was more than clearly visible then. Why would it not happen again? Both the dollar and the stronger discovery of the universality of technical analysis again, in 2011?
Hate to break it to you but did you see the following positive reports just today?
Diesel Index up nicely
Rail Traffic increased again
More job openings month over month
This all points to economic growth no matter how you slice it. 2011 will be a banner year for equities and the economy. After that, I get a little worried. But until at least Q4 2011, the party in equities and the growth in the US economy will continue fairly unabated based upon all the current economic indicators and reports.
HarryWanger,
I wanted you to know I am going to junk you but not read what you wrote. If you respond, then I may respond. I will read your response. So is that check, check, minus, plus plus or what?!?!
Tell that to the BDI which may be destined to break all time lows.
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm#bdi
BDI is falling because so many new ships came on line. It has nothing to do with demand. Many more ships out there right now, that's why the BDI is falling. Been explained over and over and over again.
1) Rising diesel prices are not beneficial as that squeezes company margins or if they decide to pass on the cost that means less discretionary income for consumers.
2) Data I look at shows total rail traffic in decline since about October 2010 so even if there is a recent increase that does not negate the previous trend.
3) Have no clue where you are obtaining the jobs data but if openings at Panera count then that may be possible.
I needed to make certain this was the true HarryWanger...there is also HarnyWanger, HamyWanger, and HornyWanker.
I wish the bears would get on with their raid! Been waiting for them at the door. Getting cold out here.
In 2008, when cash for performance was frowned on, especially in financials, many corporations switched to stock options and this selling activity is just the exercising of those options. Hooray for Pay for Performance! Hooray Uncle Ben!
So, then these are the options being sold by financial corp employees?
Being bought by their employers? (banks)
With the money Uncle Ben is giving their employers (banks)?
All this after the banks' HFT algos pushed the market up over the past year?
ensuring a nice payout for those options?
brilliant.
Action today is different from usual
How do we back out the value of stocks bought by the companies to give to insiders? If the buy-backs match the insider selling, then this might this be treatable as just income to the insider?
Or, is there a way to see how many shares or options are held by the insiders? If that is staying steady or going up, are we seeing the rats flee, or just normal rotation of options profits into other more diversified investments?
Tyler, More and more you are proving the point that George Carlin made years ago.. "Its a big club, and were not in it". Insider selling is for Club members only.
Once again, AAPL is not on the list.
Does anyone know a/the whisper number?
Shorts will hold their fire until they can get even the most obscure hunch the Fed is about to tap out on ammo.
If it wasn't for the insider selling, this market would shoot to the moon?
OTH where do insiders put the cash?
Surely with the amount of insider selling we've noticed over the past, the cash had to show up somewhere on some account or another.
Fed is buying the government paper, real estate values still deteriorating means that the cash is going to PMs and nowhere else. Which is why PMs have outperformed every other asset class.
Sure thing. If I was a GOOG slave with GOOG options, I'd be selling at any price as quickly as possible. The whole thing, everything GOOG stands for is a sham. Like Facebook on steroids and Facebook isn't even public yet.
Google sells a massive amount of worth and the founder purchases a $45 million dollar yacht. Coincedence? I think not.
O/T JPM raising dividends a dollar like strippers iz going out of style!
[Photo of Elizebeth Berkeley here]
Seriously though [ahem] they are paying themselves more monie than they were before the crisis and the crisis happened because of their lunacy. Bernanke shrugs off the problems. 'Unemployment for years!'. They, the bankers. Cnbc's first photo of Dimon was bad. The second, from further away.
Here's a clue:
There will almost *always* be more insider selling than insider buying.
It will only vary in intensity due to two factors:
1.) Black-out periods (or lack thereof) when insiders cannot sell per corporate and SEC policies & regulations;
2.) Extreme low market valuations, when Mr. Market is sometimes literally giving away companies for free (net cash)
Bottom line:
These types of blog entries are useless. They are only posted to further ZH's philosophy and perhaps trade positions.
I understand most of you don't want to hear this, or refuse to believe it... but, there you have it.
Carry on....
...and # 3......rumor is this baby's gonna' blow.
...
I agree that is normally the case but the intensity of the selling to buying is the key:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39850796/Insider_Selling_Volume_at_Highest_Level_...
Of course prices can continue to rise regardless if we have the Fed as the backstop but knowing if insiders are bailing at some of the highest ratios since data was tracked is something to note.
Great stuff. Used to read cross-currents, but I still got caught in the crash. Yes, I was a bit greedy and I was hoping the market would come back, but I was unaware of the all the trash MBSs and leveraged trading. Good archives there for reference.
http://cross-currents.net/
The Establishment and Mainstream Media is losing control of the PEOPLE and as a result vehemently ATTACKING ALTERNATIVE NEWS. Suddenly, anyone that does not agree with the Socialist policies of the Obama Administration is an ENEMY OF THE STATE!
Watch the video “The Establishment is Losing Control” at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JIDs7Luwxg).
Anonymous-
“We do not have much time left before the FREEDOM of Americans is robbed by our leaders, the Internet Censored, Guns confiscated and the PEOPLE jailed for speaking truth!”
Decaf is always an option.