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The message the market is sending to Bernanke is melting up with each passing day.
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for the sake of all that is sane, why is anybody on this planet giving bernanke the time of day? He has missed every call and his current policy is becoming an obvious failure.
Obvious to you, me and the people holding physical gold (ultimately). The problem is that it's NOT obvious to the rest of the Sheeple. I had a talk with a one of my best friends and his position is that they must know what they are doing since they are well educated and in the position they are (which is a logical fallacy, I know) - hence I'm the retard one for second guessing their behavior. Sufficed to say I try to just love him where he's at and educate him the best I can - that's all we can do for everyone.
SV, There comes a time in a persons life when one finds themselves on the Titanic, you can't save everybody.. Some are going to listen, others will want to go to the bar..Ya win some ya lose some.
Ted Kaczynski went to Harvard
Read his manifesto, it's brilliant
Ted Kaczynski went to the University of Michigan.
Ted Kaczynski went to jail.
Ding! We have a winner. Even luddite bastards can't make a good point without some of that technology that they hate so much.
You're ALL right. Hardvard for undergrad, Michigan for PhD, and then jail (with full tenure)...
Not saying you don't already know this SV, but for those who think like your friend (and most of my family...)
Argumentum ad populum
This fallacy is sometimes committed while trying to convince a person that a widely popular theory is true.
* Nine out of ten of my constituents oppose the financial rescue package, therefore it is a bad idea.
* Nine out of ten of my fellow congressmen favour the financial rescue package, therefore it is a good idea.
* Since most citizens pay their taxes and accept being ruled by the government, the state must be a reasonable and justified institution.
* Since billions of people around the world believe god exists, there must be a god.
It is sometimes committed when trying to convince a person that widely unpopular theories are false.
* It's silly for you to claim that Hitler would not have attacked the United States if they hadn't entered World War II. Everyone knows that he planned to conquer the world.
The fallacy is commonly found in arguments over ethics:
* Most Americans hold that the Vietnam War was morally wrong. Therefore, the Vietnam War was morally wrong.
* Christianity is believed in by the greatest number of people in the world, so it must be true.
The fallacy is also common in marketing:
* Brand X vacuum cleaners are the leading brand in America. You should buy Brand X vacuum cleaners.
* Watch Show X - the #1 watched show on television!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum
People said Columbus was crazy for thinking the world was round.
Sailors knew the world was round for centuries if not millennia before Columbus.
Centuries before even that they knew what sodomy was.
why is it everyone is getting ...... up the ass and no one knows it?
I appreciate everyone's comments. You're picking up what I'm putting down on the logical fallacy - I saw it in motion (I've debated enough). The problem for a lot of people is they USE these mechanisms to insulate themselves from:
People need to "get out of their own way". Unfortunately, calling my friend out in a "jeez ur stupid" way just makes them defensive. This whole situation calls for tremendous people skilz - to pierce the veil covering their mind. We, as a collective people that understand the problem, need to both walk our talk and teach to the best of our ability or we'll never win (winning in terms of saving people, not currency, things, or stuff).
There's almost nothing more frustrating than being a libertarian in a room full of liberals. Or, an atheist in a room full of Jesus freaks. Or...(etc., a litany of outsider stories)
The most challenging thing I have been trying to learn is how to communicate effectively with people who (seemingly) fundamentally disagree with my point of view. It's hard work and I'm not really great at it. I also need to work on walking my talk.
I think the way in, though, is to know that almost everybody has anger and fear about at least some aspect of the current situation. But most don't have a specific object, or if they do, it's not thought out very well. Take their anger at injustice, and fill it out with details on whom is getting screwed, who is doing the screwing, the history of the Fed and banking, moral hazard, how inflation is created, its relationship to government profligacy, the history of gold and the dollar, etc. ...if they're open to it, point them to books aimed at laypeople (like me) such as End the Fed.
Good post fb,,,
I might be exposing my approx age, however many distasteful confessions see light in the course of conversations. I was sitting in the passim coffee house in Harvard Square in 1972 when fellow musician pulled up a chair and we started talking current events, good books to read, he mentioned None Dare call it Conspiracy by Gary Allen. This was not unusual to get book recommendations in this place after all it was a bookstore/coffeehouse. There was a bookstore on mass ave called Bob Slates as the passim no luck, and what do you know, there it was, paperback. That night cover to cover and off I went on my quest to change the world. I think a more contemporary read would be Christopher Hitchens's Letters to a Young contrarian. It blast through the barriers you suggest you encounter daily,,give it a try..
On the age issue I was 25 years old sitting in that coffeehouse..
Cheers
I was at MIT about 16 years after that.
Thanks for the book recommendation.
if they're not ready to exit the matrix, they will defend it. It's very distressing to encounter so many who believe in so much fallacy, and not themselves.
The I-Ching (Chinese: Book of Changes) states:
A true leader knows the best way to lead is by example, yet also knows what it means to follow.
In my experience, asking questions and presenting choice is the best approach. It is pretty simple to make logial, step by step arguments but I have found that in argument, it more often than not leads to two of three outcomes: anger and denial. They either interrupt you and tell you what you are saying is preposterous and ask for solid evidence (if only this level of critisism was applied to their views of government) or they just do not want to hear it. Not often does the third outcome of deep thought and further inquiry (differing from asking for evidence and further argument in that the stance towards has not been taken yet).
On the other hand, it is quite difficult to ask the right questions in order to produce the kind of critial thought necessary. But if done right, this approach is the most effective. The red pill cannot be forced, you can only present you friend/stranger with a choice to take it.
Bernanke isn't really missing every call. He's just flat-out LYING. Otherwise, he would be saying that he is "totally against" a strong dollar policy.
Onwards we go, to 1200 and beyond. Say farewell to a dollar that used to be able to actually buy something.I am not looking forward to 4.00 gas and 7.00 loaves of bread, better raise the debt ceiling before the end of the month or could be orse.
I don't see how they can let inflation get out of hand. It will collapse the entire economy because the poor and middle class and elderly will not be able to buy anything. There will be a revolution in the streets if they allow this to happen. But I have zero faith in the US Gov so anything is possible.
so they are gonna deflate?
the only way to survive deflation is to cut the gov by 75%...tomorrow.
if deflation comes, receipts will fall below where they can pay interest. You can't fudge the numbers, it's the devil or the deep blue sea.
If deflation comes, the USG defaults and the dollar goes ICELAND...to ZERO.
The deflationists need to THINK things through.
denial......migration.......panic.......
I find myself obsessed. Do I need treatment? Is there a "silver belles" or "gold bugs" Anon 12 step program? Is that Ben and Tim's real problem, that they are gold bugs too?
Think this guy has one more spot open in the group sessions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTvBbhE_GRM
Don't worry. You're actually one of the rehabilitated ones...we need a 12 step for the dollar bugs/addicts.
what about prechter? :)
you mean the dollar dudes will soon be "dry drunks?"
what about prechter? :)
Don't give in to the doublespeak-Fed-water-torture.
If Ben and Tim aren't gold bugs then they really are high on their own supply! The question is, is it above their paygrade to know if their stash is spray-painted tungsten?
Lovely!
The bullion banks (Goldman, JPM, HSBC) are massively short gold/silver. ALL shorts are DROWNING, at present. We are very close to a MASSIVE and PANIC short-covering spike in both metals. Next week is Options Expiration and there is MASSIVE Calls at $1200.
December is the main month for gold/silver deliveries. Watch for options to roll over to contracts that stand for PHYSICAL delivery in December. Too bad there is nowhere near the metals required to satisfy physical delivery.
Look for a COMEX default and CLOSURE!
The bullion banks and options writers are desperately attempting to get a selloff in both metals, but to no avail. They have been trying for several days.
Maybe, maybe not. You underestimate the power of a desperate, misguided government that is willing to rape its populace. That said, I hope you are right!
If COMEX defaults, I'm retiring at the age of 28. Good thing I spent my life savings on metals in 2004. I second guessed that decision through the latter half of the Bush years because Bernacke was just "so darn good" at perpetuating the game. Now he's lost all his marbles. I understand the concept of price inflation that would follow such a defalt...but that won't matter because everyone will be super broke....CASH IS KING
Good move - I do wish I had more metals. I spend all my USD$ (cash) on life sustaining commodities: beans, bullets, and band aids. Whilst everything is burning, and everyone is starving, I'll be sitting on a pile of #10 cans. Maybe my plan won't work - but isn't that the point of taking a risk? Stockpiling is a dirty word invented by the unprepared, if not ignorant, to make the wise look dishonest - stockpiling and hoarding are not the same thing. One is generally before a crisis - the latter is generally after.
But like I said I do wish I had more metals - the advantage of metals is the compactness of value. You can hide it in your wooden leg!
"Dehydrated cream of broccoli soup? That'll be ten pieces of silver. Merci beaucoup."
FOOD BITCHES!
Good luck remaining an island of plenty in a sea of want. :(
That's the rub. Anybody, with anything of value (that other people know about!), will be a target of all the rage society can muster. The justifications for theft (and the violent means to appropriate the property of others) won't be creative - just history rhyming.
Tight lips might be your most valuable skill.
Fair point...not looking forward to obliterating invaders.
It doesn't matter how bad it gets. I would share my last pack of ramen, with a hungry kid. things aren't gonna collapse overnight. we'll form groups, and work together. plus theres safety in numbers. sometimes you have to step up, and lead, even if you would rather isolate. It looks to me like the biggest shortage will be discipline, intellectual, fiscal, and behavioral. what if this is as good as it gets?
So glad there are people like you still out there. You made my month with that comment.
what he said.
Kumbabya BITCHES!
"It looks to me like the biggest shortage will be discipline, intellectual, fiscal, and behavioral."
Yo! Isn't this why we are facing total socioeconomic collapse right now?
"plus theres safety in numbers." WTF? Basic criminal psychology demonstrates this is a very, very bad idea. What a gaping hole in a plan for making it through - it's usually the exploiter that steps up. What about mob psychology?
There is a middle ground between pessimism and optimism: realism.
Polyanna, good luck forming your disciplined group.
No noodles for you!
Just like Doc Brown and the suitcase full of cash, we've been preparing for all monetary possibilities.
Dr. Emmett Brown: What on Earth's this thing I'm wearing?
Marty McFly: Ah, this, this is a radiation suit.
Dr. Emmett Brown: Radiation suit? Of course, because of all the fallout from the atomic wars.
Not sure you want USD in your suitcase....
just make sure you have the actual metal, as a lot of 'paper' gold may be just that - paper
with 'mislabeled' bars, and madoff types around also, hold the actual gold
If they try to force the issue, all they'll accomplish is losing their price setting ability as CRIMEX will bust wide open for all to see.
In GLD yesterday, there was a net outflow of 500M $.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html
Today? Up again, sounds like a massive short thats beginning to backfire. (Even their nakid short sales can't bluff a Royal Flush)
What if Fed raised the interest rate even 1/2 percent, unexpected? Jam the AU very nicely I would think. Maybe push some early insiders into add'l shorts and to their lovely Treasuries.
Fear Goldman Sachs? It is but a dark archangel.
Fear the Fed and Treasury. They are the seat of pride and power.
I wonder if a stock market sell off would be the catalyst to make gold go exponential. Dollar sucks, equities overvalued, bonds no upside, cash no return = gold is the only place to go. Am I wrong?
Other commodities?
Better than the dollar (come to think of it, even dog poo is better than the dollar), but PM's (esp. Gold) will outperform other commodities during this leg of the secular commodity bull.
if the shit hits the fan, and agriculture goes down the toilet, dog poo will be worth a lot more than a dollar
agriculture. the same scenario gold is pricing in---weak dollar, inflation, general bunker mentality--will help foodstuffs. people have to eat. prices are still pretty depressed compared to other assets and there is a lot of upside imho
i'm in dba--powershares agriculture fund
Yup. Pretty much.
Yesterday the USD rose but gold did not fall.
The so-called dollar carry trade is overstated versus our current account deficit.
The upshot? USD and gold can both rise together, so don't look for gold to sell off just because the USD might get a counter-trend rally at some point.
Gold said she wanted a divorce from the dollar. She wants to decouple because she is tired of getting screwed by the dollar. She know she is worth more than he has been saying all these years.
Haha nice analogy.
Looks like Mizz Dollar is about to get revenge. That's how a bad romance ends.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACm9yECwSso
More like caught in a bad music video. Zing!
While I know that I am going to get hammered here, may I just propose that gold is just another asset that has been run up by loose money.
Gold hasn't divorced from the dollar insomuch as gold is- at this juncture- is seen as a speculative play and just another place to make short-term money on the long side. When equities and everything else crash back to earth and the safe-haven USD is seen again as a safe store of liquidity, the market will take gold down with it.
So, let's don't get too happy.
you want to put a timeline on that?
gold is being used as a hedge insofar as there
is a direct relationship between the frn
and price of gold. but there is more to it...
i wouldn't waste my strength commenting about
your ignorant statement about gold being just
another asset....it has the same sensibility
as saying that a mercedes e55 amg is just
transportation....
Let me put it this way: How many hours have you spent researching Gold, much less human history?
Sorry hardcore internet geeks, gotta do it... LOL!!! +100
"...the safe-haven USD is seen again as a safe store of liquidity..."
PPPPT-BAWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
+1
You are right that the gold bugs shouldn't get too happy. When you hold gold, there is always another correction right around the corner.
OTOH, when "everything crashes back to earth", why would the dollar be any different?
The only thing backing the dollar is promises on debt. So if bonds crash, the dollar will weaken as well. So far Da Boyz have been able to prop up the bond bubble, but those days are approaching an end. The Muni bond bubble is about to pop (probably late next year). When that happens no bond will be safe, including treasuries.
"I knew it, I'm surrounded by A$$hole$!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymzh7YAlZng
I'm sweet on her little sister.
I don't care whether up or down...but its a little unnerving when gold, the dollar, treasuries and equities all move in the same direction like we've seen a bit of the past couple days.
It's called a "crack-up boom", same thing happens at every hyper-inflationary onset. Do a little reading. All assets, all corrolated and moving in the same direction means ONE THING -> Currency crisis!
Very many examples in history, same basic shape.
Huge deflationary impulse during asset popping stage, huge rise of the value in the currency in question, followed by strong deflation followed by sudden-stop/currency crisis/ currency devalutation = crack-up-boom hyperinflation of all asset classes (with a almost VERTICAL drop in economic activity).
To put it in simple terms it is a "Hyper-Inflationary Depression" - This means currency devalues severly WITH simulataneous collapse in economic activity.
It you don't think you can have high (neigh, HYPER) inflation AND 90% unemployment, just look at the case of Zimbabwe. (It only takes one counter example to disprove a theory, and I've just given you one, therefore IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE HIGH/HYPER INFLATION AND INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT!)
Don't kid yourself when the MSM says it's impossible to have high inflation with the output gap as large as it is. It is a pattent falsehood to claim such an easily disproven idea as vaild. (e.g. A TOTAL BULLSHIT LIE)
This is not new, this has been a characteristic collapse profile since the end of bretton woods system.
Get with the program dude. IT's a new game (Hint, DEFLATION Ain't IT, Unless of course you are talking in gold terms, which IS OF COURSE the DEFLATOR par excelance).
If you don't get the last point just plot the value of anything vs the gold price over the last decade to see what it's true inflation adjusted performance has been. (hint: nothing, and I MEAN NOTHING beats the deflator itself.)
+1000, excellent post. Someone gets it.
Agreed. The Federal Reserve is playing with fire in a room full of gasoline cans.
Seems to be FOFOAs argument. Seems to make sense
I went ROUND and ROUND with Doucheinger and the TF acolytes on this VERY point!
It's as if none of them have EVER been to where people are poor and prices are high (most of the ROW).
JFC, how many times does this have to happen south of the border before people can GET IT?
The examples of wage/price spirals and currency devaluation are few compared to those with high UE which are LEGION. People continually argue monetarist definitions for inflation coupled around nonsensically nonquantifiable figures such as "base money" and "velocity" when we have half a dozen examples of shit economies with high UE undergoing massive PRICE inflation just in the past 20 years! Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, USSR...the list goes on and on.
Those who argue the deflation camp need to have their heads examined...USD safe store of value?!?! ROTFLMAO. The dollar is the note of a BANKRUPT STATE, get it?
We're not in a MONETARY crisis, we are in a SOLVENCY crisis, and against the backdrop of peaking energy supply and EROI decline, a freaking GROWTH MODEL existential crisis that calls into question every single fucking assumption we've been making about LAWKI for 300 years. Our current expectations are what are insolvent...our need of the future to grow us out of the present is insolvent as a fundamental concept.
I have finally given up on a deflationary spiral/collapse. It's clear that TPTB will use every possible agency - or invent multitudes of new ones - to bail out anything and everything that could negatively contribute one iota to a hint of possible deflation.
I had thought that some event spike would cause a flight out of risk and trigger a crash; but too many well-connected smart minds (that run hedgies) are going into both gold and banks at the same time. They are not 'guessing' that the worst of the writedowns have passed, I believe. They have been assured. That sounds like more tinfoil conspiracy, but wouldn't it be exactly in the best interests of Ben & Co to bring in 'private' money to the Banks/REITs with the most toxic, marked-to-fantasy, balances sheets? Don't worry, losses are capped and will be fought tooth and nail with inflationary measures.
Absent a strike on Iran and resulting war, it looks like nothing is going to snap the current spiral up (doesn't look like that is going happen - would require BO to make a decision on something). While there's no way I can go long junk here, I have to stop hedging PM miners with puts/shorts on the multitudes of trash still trading at fantasy values. Just keep accumulating the known assets that will benefit from the dollar going to zero. Don't worry about silly things like loss marking, capital requirements, depression-level non-gov't demand for RE, or refinancing. As Soros/Paulson/Einhorn/PTJ/Faber/Rogers/et al are doing...
Many north-americans just don't seem to notice the movements of EUR. Yesterday EUR/USD falled abruptly, over 1%. That's a lot I'd say, but I guess instability and speculation are rising in currency exchange.
We in Europe could see gold rise as a consequence... But gold was going up everywhere at the same time. Intuition says somebody bought a lot of dollars with euros.
Just remember there is something beyond $$$ and gold. After all, there is life outside the USA!
The USD rose versus what? Other failed fiat currencies?
The DXY is a useless indicator of the dollar's strength, it's like measuring the world's tallest midget.
lol
i love politically incorrect analogies
Comex rule changes coming ala Hunt Brothers.
Eventually they will seize.
As in the 30's? I think if you want to start a civil war, then yeah, confiscate gold, good plan.
I doubt they will confiscate again; I'm more fearfull they will tax it to death as a deterrent..
Agree, the total gold market in relative to all equity markets is a drop in the ocean. There is no logic to confiscate gold. There are more urgent financial issues to be solved.
Yes, there will be heavy tax, which can be interpreted as confiscate, or equivalent to. This would discourage American citizen to own any form of gold. Currently, the GLD is taxed as collectible, not a normal capital gain treatment.
There isn't a heavy secretive tax upon the $$$?
-16% since March. And they're just getting started fighting deflation. Add to that 50+% federal deficits, near bankrupt state budgets, 15%+ unemployment with equivalent ratio of population on food stamps/welfare.
And you're still awaiting the detonation and mushroom cloud?
Already happened. Brace for pulse wave and black rain.
Remember life is the most precious commodity. Everything trades around that. Although soon the quality will be somewhat diminished.
Close. They'll make it illegal to possess - just like in the 30's. It will be driven out of sight. The masses will still own it - but you'll have to take a huge haircut on the black market to get any "value" out of it.
Do you think making drugs illegal has increased or decreased its price? If you said increase, go to the head of the class.
Then the teacher asks: "Relative to what, Timmy?"
Timmy: "Uh, U$D?"
Treach: "Right Timmy! It'll take a Weimar armored truck full of benny money."
Timmy: "Does that mean I'll be able start my own harem of unwed daughters with a stack of maple leafs?"
Treach: "Yes, Timmy. Even I will be for sale." (undoes her top button)
(Entire class cheers. Students begin to stand up on the desks, exclaiming glee.)
+1 And cross-border smuggling into markets in Mexico and Canada.
This is how they will deal with all commodities now: tax the shit out of it to keep it out of the common persons hands. They may as well confiscate it- what's the Goddamn difference?
First PM's, then guns and ammo- then food? This gov't is fuckin' ridiculous. They've clamped down on every angle there is. No degree of free movement left.
Thats if you can even buy ammunition.
re: no gold confiscation this time around
I wouldn't be too sure of a statement like that. I can totally see the US gov't desperados coming up with some kind of scheme to get paper into & metals out of the citizens hands. If the people starting hoarding you know some cry baby in congress would start demonizing them.
If that happens, you have to walk across a border and not come back. The US goes that route, leave, permanently.
Go somewhere far, far away.
I personally think they will seize pensions and 401ks first because there are trillions there. Remember, gold was seized in 1933 because it traded as value in competition with the paper note. In this case, why not seize all retirement accounts and replace w/ govbonds? In effect that is what FDR did in 1933, took stores of value and converted them to fiat paper.
I will wear a 10kg necklace and call myself a pimp'd out muffuggin rapstar ghetto hood thugalicious gangsta so bitch this be JOOLARY, not prohibited gold bullion. All I needs is me a furnace and some molds...GIBS ME DAT
t777, it could well happen about the seize of 401k. Attached is fyi. Thanks.
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=15056&pv=1
What happens to the price of gold if they confiscate? Can they put a fixed px on gold as they did in 1933? What would the impact be to gold held internationally by foreigners? Surely, actions by the US (unless there would be a universal pegging of gold) wouldn't affect the px gold traded at in terms of euros, francs, yen, etc, no? Any insights/opinions would be welcome.
FOFOA had an interesting article on confiscation a few months back:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/08/confiscation-anatomy-different-view.html
That's going to get real expensive. I wonder how much body bags run these days. $50 dollars each. I wonder what that will be in ounces if they decide to seize.
Amazing, isn't it? That the corruption which the money masters have so effectively inundated our institutions with is so pervasive, that a free man seeking to preserve the inherent purchasing power of his past labours will not be allowed any device whereby it is free of the depredations of gov't.
That we must fear such arbitrary decrees from a nation founded upon liberty and constitutional rule of law should give you some sense of our place in the timeline.
Order: Strip them first of their excess wealth, dilute their power and patriotism, then pillage all their liberty.
No freedom for you.
Nah. In the '30's gold was seized because it was money. To seize gold today would just give the asset credibility. That's the last thing the Treasury wants at this point. People (sheeple?) don't hold gold like they did in the '30's. If the Treasury had a directive to seize gold the average person roaming around the malls would just shrug. Those of us who have the asset would just tighten our grip. There would not be lines around the banks to turn in gold as there was in the days of the gold standard.
You can't demonitize gold without a stable monetized alternative. Once the stability of the legal tender is questioned enough gold is instantly monetized. You don't even have to throw a party or write a law about it. It just happens. Like it or not.
I hope the government gets involved in the gold market by making it illegal. My portfolio will zoom.
The Feds have a consistent record on messing up in this regard. Just look at the illegal drug market.
Agree, plus the big holders would have no problem off-loading the, now more valuable, gold gold internationally.
May be it's just me, but aren't there other countries in the world besides USSA?
Yes, and they are heavy buyers.
I get the feeling India and China would have a great chuckle if the US tries to criminalize gold.
Methinks the more pertinent question here is how many gold hedges are left to unwind? This wonderful Indian lady I know has bought and sold gold as a store of wealth for her family for decades. She thinks this is too high and she'll get another chance to buy more even if she has to wait a bit, even thinkin of selling a little up here.
She is a trader, not ordinary Indian ladies as I known. They only buy not sell. Unless they are in emergency, they would
sell.
Many Indians thought the same (i.e. gold is "too high") in February this year...and look what happened.
Am I wrong or or is the dollar weaker today (against Swiss F, Swedish C, Euro, Yen--albeit stronger against Aust D and British P) and the markets is falling (also gold stronger)?
Is this some type of paradigm shift?
This has actually occurred a few times before in the last month or so. The first time it happened (this year anyway) was in early October I believe. I didn't wright down the date but I remember thinking to myself "holy shit", cause I basically came to the same conclusion you did. It is a paradigm shift indeed.
Moin from Germany,
when you read comments like this ( via Baum/ Bloomberg ) you just wanno buy more.. :-)
In the link there is an even better quote on Geithner.. ;-)!!!!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=atm5_OTauwL8
Let’s start with last week’s attention-grabbing headline in the Wall Street Journal: “White House Aims to Cut Deficit with TARP Cash.”
The White House, we are told, won’t be using about $200 billion of the $700 billion authorized under the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, a lifeline for ailing banks. Instead it plans to use money never borrowed, never spent, that nonetheless increased the projected 2010 deficit, to narrow that projection of $1.4 trillion, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate.
This un-borrowed, un-spent money qualifies as deficit reduction?
Of course it does, the same way the jobs created in fictional districts are real. Don't be silly, everything this gov't says and does makes perfect sense.
it's like having a diet coke with your large fries and bacon burger
maybe I'll ask the tax man for another deduction for that kid we decided not to have.
any comments on natural gas??
Late 2012 ramp to the stars.
It will again take its rightful place between 12 and 14.
:D
MGT, FYI, http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/resources.asp
Ya the record inventories combined with even more injections past eh middle of November means we could really see a drop versus other commodities in December. Weather dominates everything short term for gas...evn if commodiites boom...more warm weather int eh northeast will kill gas prices in the next couple weeks...I am looking for gas to come down below coal again this winter and then start buying dips. If you go long here, make sure and keep your eye on the 15-day weather forecast...mild weather here will get your ass run over.
I would love nothing more than to rip off a big one
right in Geitner's face!
Yea....I would like to fart right in Geithner's face!
All Goldbugs, please say "thank you" loudly with all your heart to this administration and Congress.
1178 today or tomorrow or friday. We need a betting pool.
Could anyone please outline to me a worst case panic scenario for any retail holders of GLD, IAU, SGOL, etc.?
I have been reading through the prospectuses of each and think I have a decent understanding for the risks associated with each one.
Essentially, a holder of these trusts is purely at the whim of the authorized participants. If at any given point the majority of authorized participants decide to redeem their gold and the trusts are forced to liquidate, the minority holders of the trust's shares (owners of less than 50,000 shares) who haven't sold yet are theoretically left with nothing correct?
GOLD Bitches!
I am not Chumbawumba...but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night
Chumbawamba, not wumba.
I am Chumbawynonnajudd.
Will the real Chumbawamba please "obey" and defend his good name.
And just who annointed you the director of the Office for Spelling Made Up Words (OSMUW, for those in the know)? Nothing in my post is incorrect, for I am neither Chumbawumba nor Chumbawamba.
This post and comments was just lacking without the requisite "GOLD Bitches!"...
Gold hit the short term target of 1150 this morning off the breakout at 1,000 on the weekly chart.
Now the most probable scenario is a shallow pullback, and then onward to 1250+ before March 2010.
If Turbo Tim and Zimbabwe Ben keep doing things the way they do, that pullback could be very short and shallow and 1250 by year end.
If the market melts down, then all bets are off.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/long-term-gold-chart-updated.html
Keep up the good work Tyler.
If the market melts down, then all bets are off.
In other words, if the deflationists are right, then the gold bugs are wrong.
Ok. Thanks for the tip.
Love your site, Jesse
Jesse the gentleman. Finest eats in town but you must settle every account in gold.
Since I finished moving all metal holdings to physical about a year ago I won't be doing a lot of trading even if it gets to 1200 in short order. I'll just sit and watch the show.
Re: commodities - got back into wheat at 1.90-ish, upon exiting sugar at 22. Wheat has now begun moving again with conviction. Will hang on for the duration, although I don't expect fireworks here but a slow, ponderous crawl upwards.
Are we going to get a pull back? Movement today dollar down,market down, bond rates up, gold/oil up seems to indicate failing confidence in dollar and any dollar based paper of any sort, and poeple selling market to move into paper gold. What will the effect of a COMEX default be on paper gold ETFs? I'm almost tempted to best the farm litteraly on gold ie put the money I have in bank for downpayment on overpriced house since the Insane Clown possie of obama/turbo timmy/bernake are devaluing the dollar at a record pace...
( DJ ) 11/18 10:37AM *DJ Fed's Bullard: Fed Functioned Well For 'Heck Of A Long Time'
( DJ ) 11/18 10:33AM *DJ Fed's Bullard: Asset Bubbles 'Very Hard To Identify'
Well if they wait unti 2012 to raise rates like Bullard suggest, Helen Keller will be able to spot the next asset bubble.
LOL
Silver has almost doubled the performance of gold since their run began.
From what, their lows? If so, you have to state their performance from their peaks.
And I'm on board with silver. But that comment is Cramer-esque selective.
Could anyone please outline to me a worst case panic scenario for any retail holders of GLD, IAU, SGOL, etc.?
I have been reading through the prospectuses of each and think I have a decent understanding for the risks associated with each one.
Essentially, a holder of these trusts is purely at the whim of the authorized participants. If at any given point the majority of authorized participants decide to redeem their gold and the trusts are forced to liquidate, the minority holders of the trust's shares (owners of less than 50,000 shares) who haven't sold yet are theoretically left with nothing correct?
Both gold and silver are in backwardation again:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2009/Nov/17/Got-Gold-Report--COMEX-...
Backwardation used to occur when there were alot of shipping disasters or piracy. Now they can just coat up some tungsten bars with a thing layer of gold. How could it be in backwardation? LOL
Why bother with gold? Just coat the tungsten with yellow paint.
They are going to draw the line here and now and defend it and it's going to go to 1500 anyway. Another banking exercise in futility.
Thanks for sharing with us.
There would no reason for Fed and Treasury to see gold price going down just like equity market in current dollar carry-trade environment. They would prefer to tax gold capital gain at a higher rate. Why? Because only fortunate people can afford to own gold at current price.
Total bullshit. I can afford it and I make $8 an hour. I have 3 ounces of gold, 200 ounces silver and about 30 ounces of silver half dollars which I managed to save in 3 months time.
If I can buy that much in such a short time with my funding anyone making 30k a year can.
So, you are very fortunate and on the way to become rich. Great!
???
I think you missed the point, unless you have some idiosyncratic definition of 'fortunate'.
Your my kind Burnbright. Just watch what you spend and there is plenty. Love it!
We love Fox news! Yea!
Gold setting a record price every day is the new normal. We might as well stop mentioning it. It could go on like this for years.