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13 & 26 Week Bill Auction, April Issuance Calendar
Today's 13 and 26 week auction results are out and the trend of lower
indirects/weaker bid to cover at low(er) rates that was noted and
discussed by @japhychron last week continues - at least on the short
end:
26 Week -
Yield 0.11 vs. 0.13 (May 4, previous), Indirect Bidders: 43.66 (27.57
prev - see note), Bid To Cover: 4.45 vs. 4.40 prev, Coupon 0.112 vs.
0.132 prev.
14 Week - Yield 0.05 (unch. vs. May 4), Indirect Bidders: 14.17 vs. 26.28 prev, Bid To Cover: 4.18 vs. 4.34, Coupon: 0.051 (unch)
The 26 week auction saw a noticeable jump in both Indirects and in
the BTC despite lower yield and coupons. For the last 10 auctions, the
indirects mean has been 34.63 while 1 std. deviation moves have been 9.
This jump is particularly interesting today with the noted continued
weakness in shorter term bills (13 week).
Updated Issuance Calendar and Stats
The Auction Stats and April's issuance calendar has been updated on Google Docs and can be found here. It's a relatively "quiet" market as we await the slew of issuance this week in
3/10/30y (10 and 30s are both re-openings). Tomorrow also brings the 4
week bill auction in which I'll be watching the results to see if we
continue to see weakness in the two categories at these low rates.
This article originally appeared on Stone Street Advisors blog (via Bond_Wimp)
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One man's opinion: liquidate stock at best price possible over next 2 weeks; stay in cash until QE or no QE plays out. I feel that initially, no QE and when the market corrects by 20%, Ben and Timmah will say: See what happens when you question our (in)competence? Then it will be full steam ahead on another round of dollar destruction.
What is the translation; that is, what does this represent in the Fed actions? Increasing or decreasing purchases in lieu of 3rd party players - how obvious is it to all concerned that the Fed is increasingly in trouble?