$13 Billion 30 Year Auction Results: Primary Dealer Stick Save Prevents Rout
Is this the gray swan? The 30 Year auction just came in at 3.852%, which in itself is not remarkable, although as the highlight on the chart below shows this was an inflection point in the high yield which for the first time came in higher than the previous auction (3.82%), and could be the critical rate rise everyone is expecting. And with the 10s30s at record highs (how is that flattener MS/BofA?) this pretty much shelves any hope for America to follow in Mexico's footsteps and issue 100 Year notes. What is most troubling is that even as all other auctions keep coming at tighter and tighter spreads, the 30 Year has decidely broken away from the pattern. And the Auction itself was ghastly: the Bid To Cover was 2.49, the lowest it has been since February, and would have been far worse had Primary Dealers not singlehandedly carried it on their shoulders. PDs took down 58.6% of the auction, the highest since May of 2009! And, as we feared, Indirects are no longer chasing for yield, but are demonstrating to the US what happens if and when America decides to go into trade and currency war mode unilaterally. At 32.4%, Indirects took down the least amount since March. If the yield on the 30 Year continues to rise, this, much more so than a failed auction, will be colored swan that Zero Hedge has long been looking for. Keep an eye on the 10s30s. If it goes parabolic here, it could get very ugly, very fast.