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$13 Billion 30 Year Reopening Closes At 4.679%, Directs Take Down Whopping 29.7%: A New Record, Indirects Settle For Mere 23.9%
- Yield 4.679% vs. Exp. 4.702%, Allotted at high 82.8%
- Bid To Cover a massive 2.89 vs. Avg. 2.56 (Prev. 2.68)
- Indirects at miserable 23.9% vs. Avg. 42.32% (Prev. 40.77%)
- Direct take down an absolutely stunning 29.7%
- Direct hit ratio 44.4%
Full results:
Breakdown of direct take down showing unprecedented surge in direct participation over past two auctions:
Indirect take down drops to levels last seen in November 2008:
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What happens when the direct bidder goes on vacation?
Bank Holiday
Ben doesn't go on vacation.
+1000!
And neither does The Devil and his minions.
Coincidence? I think not.
We all go on vacation!
so, bernanke only bought 29.7% of 13 billion....he probably did that while taking a leak.
Running games.
GOLD BITCHES!!
I am Chumbawamba.
Life was so much better when we were sharing a cell with Big Montagu.
no
cat food bitches!
None of this is a big deal. Not until UE falls.
It's happening.
not an expert on Treasury auctions.. is this bearish for rates?
+1... Virgil and I need this spelled out please... All I know how to do is burry gold and hide in a bomb shelter (both skills which should pay off very soon). Thx
I am MagicHandPuppet... I will eat Chumbawamba.
The media is saying it recieved a solid recepetion. hahaha!
This website goes down more often than Barney Frank
I disagree. This site doesn't go down that often.
I think that we all like to forget the visual of mr. frank going down thankyou!
Twis twastes tweally gwood, slurwurp, slurwurp.
ewwwww!
Oh yes it does. Hurts most when you're posting, harr harr!! Still the best site to engage.
Not true at all..
I'm akamai enough to solve the math problem, but please interpret these numbers for us
non-bond traders...
This was a very powerful auction as people all around the world recognize that there Is No Other Place To Hide the quantities of money that need to hide.
No, not gold, because there simply, unequivocally, is not enough of it. That might make the enthusiasts leap to say that if it's rare it must be made more expensive, but that's not how the real world works. The real world is TODAY. TODAY there are billions and billions of dollars or other currencies that is terrified and there is simply no other financial instrument that exists of a size sufficient to absorb it other than US T's.
And you all know it.
Be consistent. You all believe growth is going to collapse. If there is no growth, there's no reason to look for inflation. You can't raise prices on things no one wants and no one wants anything but oil and food (in that order) when there is no growth. That means the only place to hide is US Ts.
The trade that every single human being must have got slaughtered today. Again.
so because there isnt enough gold it isnt a good place to hide? great logic...and inflation cant occur without growth? are you serious?...when the fiat system fails the only place to hide will be hard assets mainly ag, energy, and metals...they are the main players of the very the few that have intrinsic value...and if you knew anything at all about grocery store prices over the last few years and the through this so called called "deflationary" period you would not make those comments..grocery inflation was, still is, and will continue to be rampant. it will continue to exist in the items that people need to survive..just because people wont by an iphone every 6 months doesnt mean inflation cannot happen...ahh talking on deaf ears. inlfat
+3 (one for each salient point I found in your comment)
There is no real demand for much of anything out there--certainly not non-essentials, certainly not housing, and certainly not high risk currencies. And whether or not the EUR got oversold on 'greek panic' really doesn't matter. The perception is that the EUR is more a risk than the USD (a perception I think is wrong, but oh well), along with several others, and so where's the money going to flow? UST. There is no other currency those minds can see to hide in other than the USD.
And I think you are right about gold quantity, but perhaps not in the way your words exactly mean: I think that the individual players, the big fish out there, are buying gold if they know what they are doing. But if I'm managing millions and/or billions for someone else, I don't know that I'd put it all in gold right now, Gekko histrionics notwithstanding. (Disclaimer: I'm fatally long gold; I think it's ONE of the crisis monies, but that doesn't mean I can't see dollar strength for what it is--I understand why the long end is looking attractive to some, even if not to me.)
And growth is going to continue to get pounded across the board. Supply overhangs might be being depleted, but with anemic demand to replace them. Energy? You betcha, that will always be in some demand, but even China's bubblenomics look to be slowing the projections of the looming use. Food? Sure, we'll see rising prices in certain foods, but not all. But HOW MUCH can oil and food demand really mean in the total metric when the rest is diminishing? Look at transport: An ugly floating constellation of rusting cargo ships and tankers.
The consumer who fuels this whole Peter/Paul shell game is flat on his back, and those that are still standing are mostly against the ropes trying to catch their breath. Everything I've seen government do in the last ~2 years has served mostly to pull demand forward, be it cash-for-clunkers, unemployment extension, payroll-tax-holiday hiring incentives, or home buyer incentives (and ALL of it 'funded' by tossing it onto the debt where it happily bears interest) and all of it doing not much of anything BUT pulling anemic demand forward. The only other things I've seen government do are punishing demand in the form of tax hikes and mandating moral hazard such that more and more who CAN pay their debts are choosing not to service them (a trend that I believe will accelerate).
I buy gold and silver, BUT NOT ONLY gold and silver. And I buy them knowing that the price is just as likely to decrease in the near-to-mid term of my time horizon, even if I know that the long term trend is a hockey stick. Like it or not, the USD will continue its strength--against a lot of reasoned logic and hand-waving hyperbole--but it will continue its strength for some time. Plan and invest accordingly.
Don't worry the USD will crater sooner than you think. One day, they'll be a key reversal right when everyone thinks it's best to be long USD because everything's being handed "Hell in a HandBasket". Mark my words, this will happen that same day because reality will be that it's wrong to be long USD's too!
You better already have a majority position in the Precious Stuff because it'll be too late.
"You better already have a majority position in the Precious Stuff because it'll be too late."
I never said I didn't. And I never said it wouldn't crater.
Cool :)
"Trader": Mr. Chairman, there is no one else than us at the "mall". Should we melt it up or let things go down a bit to see if someone "buys the dip"? Please advise.
83% alloted at high. Sounds like collusion. Benron picked a number slightly under teh expected take down interest rate and almost everybody met right there.
Pssst!
Party at 4.679%, pass it on.
Thats funny.
How about more Toyota bashing, maybe waterboarding for Mr Toyoda next time he is again so silly to face the audience ?
Comeon guys, get these suckers to buy your UST..... or throw a bomb.....
Yeah, the US are DONE !
You lost it !
GAME OVER.
PS: America sucks.
when is this fucking "rigged" market going to fall?? where's that illusive Mr efficient market?
We've been dead wrong for a year, and we still are, the market is proving us. we are idiots. at least I am.
Yeah it is easy to think of yourself as insane when the world is nuts
What I'm more curious to see is if the Fed can get away with the direct bidding crap after March 31st. I'm guessing there will be an attempt to offset what is leaving the Fed balance sheet (loan facilities, MBS prepayments, etc.) and replacing it with new-fangled Treasuries.
In any case, the Zero Hour is quickly approaching. Once we get to the end of March, the Fed either actually does what it says and quit purchasing, announces another QE program-- or-- hides behind the shadows and quietly becomes a market maker for every auction for this year... and lying about it every step of the way.
I find it interesting that some companies (i.e., Citigoup) are scrambling for capital now. If I'm listening what people are doing rather than what they are saying, I'm beginning to come to the conclusion that the training wheels are going to come off-- and come off soon.
well said assetman.
i am most confident that the Fed will continue to purchase but it will be in a stealth manner. they should already be embarrassed enough by their genuinely silliness as far as the equity markets are. did Bernanke (who never worked private sector for all intents and jpurposes) never teach that class about echo bubbles? wow, he inflated the equity and commodity markets but kinda failed when it comes to lending, housing, and unemployment.
so, this guy is the savior of the world and all he has done is declare zirp and keep his finger on the greenback print button. real tough to do that.
"all he has done is declare zirp and keep his finger on the greenback print button."
Thank you.
This is exactly what I think every time I hear about how much of a genius he is and how he "saved us".
I'm pretty sure my 5 year-old could have done just as well with infinite money.
Is there any problem that can't be solved with infinite money?
Is there any market that can't be either gunned (or crushed) with infinite money?
Fed has to do what it said it will do: end "overt" QE and agency MBS purchases.
Agree they then have 2 paths: double down on the covert activity which has been masked by the overt policy, or come clean and announce QE 2, which has the problem of providing an answer to the question of "when will QE ever end?" The answer, of course, being "who knows," an answer that will be groundshaking no matter what the CNBC propagandists say. It seems the market has a willingness for some reason to look the other way at covert easing, but think for whatever reason that a public announcement of QE 2 will have bad consequences all around. It may precipitate an avalanche.
Those who think we can magically print our way out of a giant pile of bad debt are mistaken. But you can run on fumes and credit cards for quite a while, which looks like recovery. And you can't blame the real economy for trying to get back up. If only the boot were off its throat . . .
Ned, I do think there is a viable 3rd choice here-- I think it would be dangerous to dismiss that the Fed will actually stop QE. At least for a period of time.
Take a look at what banks are actually DOING. They aren't doing what banks usually do (make loans); are essentially preparing for another deflationary wave by bolstering their balance sheets with any form of capital they can get their grubby little hands on. And I don't think they are operating in a vacuum independent of the Fed, either.
My chips are split on continued QE-- whether stated or covert-- by owning gold, because the doelarr will be trashed again if monetization is assumed in perpetuity. And I'm buying long-dated options in volatility, in the event that the Fed allows more deleveraging to take place.
The second bet is really risky-- not because of the potential loss from lower volatility (it certainly hasn't worked out do far). I'm sweating that bet out due to counterparty risk. A total collapse means I don't collect.
a few things:
CUSPID 912810QE1 - the buying continues? hehe
only $21m of noncompetitive bids? seems that even the CBs need a little yield to swollow this load?
55% of indirect bids required a higher yield than Benron's 4.679%? 42% of direct bids?
stocks floating up to recent highs on low volume, 30yr tsy's selling like hotcakes - I'm sure this'll all make sense one day.
Heard that Ben put in a huge order for ink :) Here come more "I owe you nothing" notes.
Sooner or later the rest of the world ain't going to believe we can make the interest payments on all this paper being sold and they will be right.
BTW - No more mental images of Barney biting a sausage in his Victoria Secret ass hugger panties. Please.....
Amazing. What I would love to see, which we will not get to, is the actually to the minute TIC report and just what the Wall Street bankster hedge funds in the Caribbean, er, Caribbean Banking Centers, actually hold at this time. If they show what I suspect they do, a spike in holdings, then odds are the laundering process works like this:
1. Banks borrow at the window before the auction.
2. Direct buys executed.
3. Sold to their own hedge funds across "Caribbean Banking Centers" in distributive action at 5% profit.
4. Window repaid.
5. Hedge funds redistribute in exchange for MBS from China & Middle East.
6. Sell back to bank at 3% profit above original purchase price from bank in step 3.
7. Sell back to Treasury or FNM/FRE at 7% gross profit, 4% net. Move reserves into Tier 1 cash holdings or short term Treasuries as needed to maintain reserve requirements.
8. Rinse, lather repeat.
yah, you are right, now imagine they get to leverage that money they just made 30:1
I'll jump on the bullish bandwagon when the employment prints positive 250K.. wait Obam has that covered via census workers.. were home free.
How can you guys not see this. You're RIGHT!! There is no growth! It's smoke and mirrors. EVERYONE KNOWS IT.
But what you're not . . . somehow . . .figuring out is that YOU'RE RIGHT. People are terrified. They are looking for a place to put money.
There is only one place they can put it that is simply big enough to absorb it all. Why is this hard to see? It's Not The Fed Buying. It's not. It's terrified money going into US Ts. They know there's risk there, but they know that it is lower risk than ANYWHERE ELSE THAT CAN ABSORB IT.
The US bond market dwarfs everything else. That money has nowhere else to go.
You have a valid point. Between your post and that of johngaltfla above, trying to decide which end of the full range of possibilities comes closest to what the hell is really going on just caused my head to explode.
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