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As 1.3 Million Americans Are About To Lose Their Jobless Benefits This Week, The Unemployment Rate Will Surge To 10.5%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As we reported on Friday, a critical bill that was unable to pass this past week was the extension of unemployment benefits to millions of Americans currently collecting a $1,200 average monthly stipend from the US government for sitting on their couch and not paying their mortgage. As a result of this huge hit to endless governmental spending of future unearned money, the WSJ reports that "a total of 1.3 million unemployed Americans will have lost their assistance by the end of this week." Furthermore, the cumulative number of people whose extended benefits are set to run out absent this extension, will reach 2 million in two weeks, and continue rising: as a reminder the DOL reported over 5.2 million Americans currently on Extended Benefits and EUC (Tier 1-4). The net result is yet another hit to the US ledger, as soon 2 million Americans will no longer recycle $1,200 per month into the economy. In other words, beginning in July, there will be $2.4 billion less spent each month by America's jobless on such necessities as LCD TVs (that critical 4th one for the shoe closet), iPads and cool looking iPhones that have cool gizmos but refuse to hold a conversation the second the phone is touched the "wrong" way. As the number of jobless whose benefits expire grows, the full impact of lost money will progressively increase, and absent some last minute compromise, the monthly loss will promptly hit $5 billion per month. Annualized this is a hit of $60 billion to "consumption", and represents roughly 120 million iPads not purchased, and about half a percentage point of GDP (ignoring various downstream multiplier effects). Worst of all, as these people surge back into the labor force, the unemployment rate is about to spike by nearly 1%, up to 10.5%.

From the WSJ:

On Thursday, Senate Democrats failed to secure the 60 votes needed to break off a GOP-led filibuster. Sen. Ben Nelson (D., Neb.) voted with Republicans in a 57-41 roll call. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said this third vote on the matter would be the last, allowing the Senate to move on to modest legislation cutting taxes for small businesses.

The collapse of the wide-ranging legislation means that a total of 1.3 million unemployed Americans will have lost their assistance by the end of this week. It will also leave a number of states with large budget holes they had expected to fill with federal cash to help with Medicaid costs.

Up in the air are other provisions that were to be included in the legislation, including some $50 billion in new taxes designed to help offset its cost. They included an increase in levies paid by private investment groups, including hedge-fund firms and real-estate partnerships, a provision long sought by some Democrats that will likely return another day.

Under a program initially enacted last year—which expired June 2—jobless workers could receive up to 99 weeks of aid, including 26 weeks of basic assistance provided by states plus longer-term federal payments. The Labor Department estimates that the long-term unemployed, meaning those out of a job for at least six months, make up 46% of all jobless workers in the U.S.

And like every other stimulus program, there are those who focus on possible cons from the program end...

There are economic risks in ending benefits. Workers receiving them tend to funnel money back into the economy immediately, helping prop up demand and jobs.

In addition, said Harvard economist Lawrence Katz, if workers are unable to find work and no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, some will turn to other government programs, such as disability and Social Security. "If you're really concerned about the long-term deficit, you should be really concerned about the long-term unemployed," Mr. Katz said.

and pros...

Other economists argue that extended benefits have played a part in keeping people out of the labor force. "There's a very large body of research that says that more generous benefits and benefits that last longer…encourage people to stay out of work longer," said Bruce Meyer, an economist and public policy professor at the University of Chicago.

James Sherk, a labor economics analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, said that while it could be argued that the benefits made available last year were too extensive, cutting off workers who expected to receive the full 99 weeks of benefits isn't ideal either. "You don't sort of pull the rug out from someone halfway through," he said.

In our view, what will happen is that the 1.3 million who had gotten used to receiving benefits (and for whom we certainly feel sorry, as once again expectations and reality under the current administration diverge in a dramatic fashion) and had no desire to look for work, will immediately flood back into the labor force to find some job, any job, that pays even remotely as well as what the government did. What this means is that the total labor force (which incidentally dropped by 322,000 From April to May) of 154.393 million, is about to grow by at least 1.3 million, and as much as 2 million, in July. And since census employment peaked, and the number of employed will stay flat (at best) at 139.420 million, the expansion in the total labor force, will increase the unemployment rate by almost 1% in just a month, growing from 9.7% in May to 10.5% in July. That number will be reported in late August. But by then the sequel to the Great Depression v2 movie will be playing in every theater across the land, and this number will be the least of our worries.

Appendix A: average monthly benefits check as per the Daily Treasury Statement and the DOL's weekly claims report.

Appendix B: For an extended discussion of jobless benefits, how they work, and how their expiration will adversely impact the economy, read As Extended And Emergency Unemployment Benefits Finally Begin Expiring, A Much Different Employment Picture Emerges

 


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Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:31 | Link to Comment QuantumCat
QuantumCat's picture

Bring on the pain...

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:43 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

you first, Schroedinger.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 01:03 | Link to Comment teaddy bearish
teaddy bearish's picture

wow we have a quantum lover here

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 01:43 | Link to Comment Testicular Cancer
Testicular Cancer's picture

I am still uncertain.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 02:24 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Maybe you've been reading too many Inflation V Deflation debates.  You should try tuberculosis, BTW.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 04:13 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

It's impossible to know how much pain there is AND exactly who is feeling it.

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:54 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

For an exact figure, one must venture to the Oracle of Delphi's Topless Bar and Burger Joint and inquire of Billy The C.    

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Everyman
Everyman's picture

True and just like Schroedinger's cat if we "put them all in a box" and closed it off, do they exist?  Seems like that is exactly what the goobermint is doing, they just pretend they don't exist and everything is OK.  Even though there is so much pain in the UE ranks.

 

10.5%?  That is a massive increase from 9.7%.  There would be no denying it then.

 

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 12:49 | Link to Comment goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

10.5%?  That is a massive increase from 9.7%.  There would be no denying it then.

My naive brethren.

Just claim that there was a fire in the statistics office and the number, best we can tell is about the same as it ever was.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Don't forget the approx. 500k rolling off of the Census payrolls in the near future.  That would be a bit harder to explain, unless the economy suddenly adds 500k beach/marsh cleanup jobs - the kind where a W2 is issued.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:45 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

That very impossibility to know can help us.   Our economy could quantum tunnel through the mountain of debt just because there is a probability of its existence on the other side.   Quantum uncertainty has a bright side!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

Place your bets!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:15 | Link to Comment PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

We know for sure it is not the banksters, nor the govt.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:02 | Link to Comment pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Quantum uncertainty is a limitation of observation, not an insight to the working of the Universe.  Just another myth I find myself pointing out again and again.  Though it is funny.  Hahaha. ha.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:58 | Link to Comment technovelist
technovelist's picture

Quantum uncertainty is a limitation of observation, not an insight to the working of the Universe.  Just another myth I find myself pointing out again and again.  Though it is funny.  Hahaha. ha.

I don't believe that is correct. My understanding is that a particle really doesn't have both momentum and position at the same time. In fact, it doesn't have either until we decide to measure one of them.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment 7bit
7bit's picture

The particle might not even exist at all, at least not necesarily as a "particle".

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 12:56 | Link to Comment pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

QM is a model to predict some behavior.  As 7bit says, particles might not exist at all... We can be confident that at some point in time QM will be replaced with a better model.

Mon, 06/28/2010 - 10:09 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

QE -> QE2, so QM -> QM2?

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 12:53 | Link to Comment jimijon
jimijon's picture

If you freeze time for an instant ... what is its momentum? You stop moving... you die. Because in essence you stopped time.

Mon, 06/28/2010 - 20:36 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Someone pointed out to me that - In the same way the Enlightenment grew out of a new understanding of existance, the societal transformation resulting from comprehension of the QM meme have barely begun.

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:43 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

I don't know if he's a quantum lover, but I would say that he looks like he's a Quantum Mechanic.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:44 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

I'm quite hestitant to make a determination and as a result limit my possibilities.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:14 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

And I thought I was first

until I observed

that QC arrived over 40 weeks ago.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 02:55 | Link to Comment quintago
quintago's picture

the unemployment rate is derived from the number of people collecting benefits. If they no longer collect benefits, then the unemployment rate goes down, so its all good baby, because the numbers don't lie!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 05:03 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

if this is satire it is weak.  if "fact" imo it is wrong, as is the article above on this point in the opposite direction.  as posters below note, these people receiving benefits are in the labor force from a statistical standpoint.  lots of truth in a de facto statement like after benefits stop they really will be in the labor force seeking work.  but re: govt stats, i don't think so.  the economic/income effects seem important but could we get some editorial clarification on the unemployment statistics end of it?  thanks.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:56 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

Your facts are off...the unemployment rate is derived by the number of those looking for work/in workforce

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Yes.  However, I wouldn't be surprised to see the folks coming off of extended unemployment assistance classified as "discouraged workers", in which case, they won't be included in the headline unemp rate. 

Local store I frequent used to have the typical "youthful", clueless, possibly GED educated, cashiers.  Of late, I'm seeing more middle-aged, well-groomed, seemingly college-educated or better folks behind the registers.  Does not give me the warm fuzzies regarding the economy.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 12:20 | Link to Comment fearsomepirate
fearsomepirate's picture

When teenagers are prohibited from accepting wages below $9 per hour, well, the grocery store is going to hire people who aren't quit the screw-ups that teenagers are.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:12 | Link to Comment quintago
quintago's picture

and how exactly do you measure who is looking for work? perhaps have them write in every other week that they are looking?

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:40 | Link to Comment I need more asshats
I need more asshats's picture

Pain... Oh who gives a shit!

I need a job! I need to be comforted, taken care of, loved, entertained, supported, fulfilled.

I need my mommy, the womb, the warmth, the insulation, the safety.

I need.

What a group of fagots. I mean what a group of Glenn Becks.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:33 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

I believe we entered war the last time the unemployment rate hit 25%. 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Government scheme to get public hawkish since bullish didn't transpire. If this doesn't work, people will go apeshitish with pitchforkishes.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 00:11 | Link to Comment WeeWilly
WeeWilly's picture

Shee-it Ozz, we're in two wars already. How many will it take to get us out of this mess?

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 01:31 | Link to Comment Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

All the wars!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:41 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

One wonders, once this all 'hits the fan' will MSM be pushing those unemployed to join the armed forces? Will there be more commercials showing how 'cool' it is to kill people via their PS2/xBox remote controlling drones? As i recall, that is exactly what happened in the early stages of this war years ago. Brings new meaning to first person shooter 'games'. Then again many Americans are a bit, how shall i say this, not qualified for duty due to their physical fitness.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:53 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I was shocked by the Army ads I saw when I took my son to see Shrek Forever After - The Final Chapter.

I recall 2 years ago, I had "the conversation" with my neighbor about my worries about the coming depression/economic crash and how it will end in War.  She said she wasn't concerned because her son had dyslexia, allergies, asthma and flat feet (he's fat, too).  No worries.  Yesterday she told me she was upset that the "stimulus" didn't pass because it means her library assistant job at the local elementary school will be cut.  It was 8:30 in the morning and she had a can of diet pepsi in her hand.  She's obese, has type 1 diabetes and wears an insulin pump.   Oh, and I've never seen her husband without a can of beer in his hand.  And, she's my best neighbor.  So, unfortunately, all of this get to know your neighbors...bla bla bla isn't the answer...at least for me.  Someone could do a reality tv series about the assholes on my block.  Want to hear about the retired police officer next door whose pension is OVER $100,000?  His single daughter and granddaughter who are collecting welfare and food stamps?  The registered sex offender? 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:49 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

When wallowing with pigs....

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:58 | Link to Comment bernorange
bernorange's picture

Sounds like you haven a lot of material to write a compelling Hollywood sitcom.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sounds like you need to move.  I live next door to a family that is more prepared than I am, and that's saying something.  Between the two of us, we have the resources to supply the rest of the neighborhood if we have to, and that's without my farming contacts.  Some of our other neighbors have significant capabilities as well, even if half of them are on welfare or disability.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment almost_have_a_name
almost_have_a_name's picture

Dude,

Sounds like the making of a Chuck Palahniuk novel. What a rich/diversified culture !

I'm only happy to pay my taxes for their disfunction.

 

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

How many wars? ... as many as it takes. Trade policies won't be touched as the money people try to control things with currency valuation schemes.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 13:13 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The U. S. could do war on consignment -- sorta like those folks who sell stuff on eBay that is consigned.  We could subcontract some hellish weapons to folks like Xe and get some IPOs  going for new war companies.  Oooh, I can't wait.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 04:30 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

oz, shadowstats didn't help me find out when that was.  their data went back only a decade or so.  may be my fault.  last time unemployment was over 20% in u.s. may have been '32, though it jumped up in '38 too.  war started in europe in '39, in u.s. in '41.  doesn't bode well, given the current two plus and counting.  ron paul has the right ideas on these endless wars.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:17 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

I think the idea is that at some point prior to shadowstats, the BLS numbers were reliable. 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:38 | Link to Comment RossInvestor
RossInvestor's picture

The non-farm UE would need to be about 34% today to be equivalent to the UE of the 1930's.  Back then about 27% of the populace still lived on farms as compared to 2% today.

Also, note most of the USG statistical data for the 1930's was developed after the fact in the 1940's.  Record keeping during the GD 1.0 was poor or non-existant.-15

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

In the 1930's, the underemployed were counted as unemployed.  Make that change, and our unemployment is up to around 22%  In addition, back then, the women generally didn't work.  Since we have transitioned to a two-worker per household society, one member of a household losing thier job is likely to impoverish most families.  As such, the impact of our unemployment rate is similar to that of a 30% unemployment rate back in the 30's.  The main difference is that we have had a lot of industrial development in the meantime (not to mention the fact that Chinese policies keep the purchasing power of the dollar up), so food and other necessities are much cheaper.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Is it a Depression yet?

No one seems worried about millions of people without money in the hot summer. It's like a subplot in a Spike Lee film.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:41 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

I believe the rules are:

10% drop in GDP (from peak), 25% unemployment and I think the last indicator has something to do with the length of recession. Anyway, Michigan is already there. 

 

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:52 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I believe the rules are:

-If your neighbor is out of work than it is a recession.

-If you are out of work it is a depression.

-If you are Barney Frank than you are FAABBUULLOOUUUS!!!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Rebel
Rebel's picture

If Barney Frank and Chriss Dodd are out of work, you have a Recovery.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:51 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

if BF and CD are out of work, hide the ten year olds.  With them in work its just 11 and up.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:51 | Link to Comment Ti9ers Wood
Ti9ers Wood's picture

Really? Looks nice from all the commercials I've seen. People walking hand in hand down maple lined streets while children run to pristine lakes to swim and play. This the same Michigan?

Then again, so did the commercial for that property Eric Estrada was pitching years ago...

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:58 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

This the same Michigan?

No, different one.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

ZING !!! WIN

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Your forgetting the millions who will lose their COBRA subsidy and will become uninsured...bring on more bankrupt americans!!! There will be blood.....:-)

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 01:59 | Link to Comment MichiganMilitiaMan
Sun, 06/27/2010 - 02:04 | Link to Comment Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

+1000

 

LOL!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 03:10 | Link to Comment Ragnar D
Ragnar D's picture

Detroit City Council:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqOSNI7l0bQ

 

You not ma daddy!

Don't disrespeck me up in hurr!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 14:36 | Link to Comment Mr Creosote
Mr Creosote's picture

No wonder Detroit is such a mess. The council looks like an episode from Jerry Springer. Who did this woman run against, a convicted pedophile?

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Brindle702
Brindle702's picture

Eric Estrada = Bella Vista, Arkansas ... just north of Bentonville, AR, home of Wal-Mart

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Visiting Michigan in the summer is truly FABULOUS...

As long as you live somewhere else where there's a job.

Headed there myself in couple weeks.

The reason they look happy in those ads is that they know you're coming from out of state and bringing MONEY!

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 21:21 | Link to Comment MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Weird, we've been told that we are happy because we live in a union run utopia.  Ignorance is bliss I guess.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:09 | Link to Comment Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Michigan !! Ha!! People are emptying out of their homes. Jobs are next to impossible to come by . ( oh even the super size grease burger places aren't hiring . They have summer zitface help now) . More and more homes windows are curtainless , like dark eyes staring into the night . Realtors say BUY BUY BUY . Gobernatorial wannabes are clones of D.C. cronies. Looking for more sin taxes , State VAT taxes , and the new luxury tax ,IF YOU ARE WORKING you owe us an extra 10% state tax to supprt the welfare system ( Wall Streets welfare). "All my bags are packed and ready to go ". I won't wake you up to say goodbye.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:01 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Simple solution.  Michigan declares war on Illinois.  They are both so broke they can only field an army of about 11 soldiers carrying a loaf of bread and can of Spam.  Indiana makes money on use of the northern toll roads forcing the combatants to issue more bonds to fund the war and GS makes millions on the CDS packages.  Voila!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:00 | Link to Comment All_Is_Well
All_Is_Well's picture

That is dam funny!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I must remind you that General Custer and most of his 7th Cavalry were from Michigan. So watch out Illinois, if you don't want to suffer the same fate as Sitting Bull.

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

A few points;

As EUC expires, the unemployed in Michigan will be eligible for Extended Benefits (EB) which are also subsidized by DC at a rate 80% of EUC.

Realistically, the vast majority of EUC receipients that need to support a family cannot live on unemployment.

Unemployment paid in 2010 is treated like regular wages for income tax.

The real unemployment rate in the city limits of Detroit is 48%.

At this point in time Detroit is leveling abandoned homes so as to facilitate reduction in the city limits.

For the informed, Detroit is really just a sad side show. The focus is on the State budget process and what will be cut without the additional Medicaid assistance from DC.

Many do not think that Chrysler can pay the $315M VEBA payment in July without loans.

http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/26/83/75.php

The GM IPO is unworkable for paying back the taxpayer at Par. A partial IPO, as talked about in the press, is structured only for political PR. It will not generate any positive cash flow for GM.

Mark Beck

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:36 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Long overdue. I know people who literally sit at home all day playing online computer games instead of looking for work. One told me that is COLAs make sitting at home more profitable than the job he lost.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:50 | Link to Comment Monkey Craig
Monkey Craig's picture

My uncle is following this path. He gets money directly deposited into his Wachovia account. He complains that he is too good for a job at McDonald's and Wal-Mart, and he smokes a pack a day. He follows MSNBC and Facebook all day to see when the government will give him more goodies - mostly unemployment benefits and lower premiums for health care.

 

This country is going down the tubes....and all anybody can talk about is Dancing with the Stars and what dress Obama's wife is wearing.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:54 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

If you keep throwing meat to lions, they'll eventually stop hunting.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 00:23 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

If you keep throwing meat to lions, they'll eventually stop hunting.

 

If they don't starve first.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 00:47 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Why would they starve if you keep throwing them meat, "Dr."?

Unless, you are implying that the bennys are so meager that people will starve on unemployment.

I've had full-time jobs that paid less than what some on unemployment are collecting.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 01:13 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

I was joking with a colleague that when our business finally fails, we can probably make more on unemployment.  I have a friend who has been unemployed for what seems like eternity.  He makes some web sites on the side.  Now with unemployment and the side jobs, he is doing better than he ever has.  Maybe I am just jealous. 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:43 | Link to Comment Rebel
Rebel's picture

Ever try to hire day labor? I am putting in a hydroponic greenhouse, and need day labor to help with various things. Impossible to find anyone to do day labor. Why would anyone work, when they can sit home and collect unemployment. Almost anyone could set up a street corner stand selling tamales or burritos, anyone could start cleaning houses, taking in ironing and laundry, senior sitting, or yard work. Nope, everyone will just line up like fat hogs at the trough of the government "safety net".

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:48 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Yepper!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Brindle702
Brindle702's picture

... check that tamale stand ... the Health Dept has a $2,000 license / fee to overcome before you can start selling tamale goodness

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 18:15 | Link to Comment russki standart
russki standart's picture

Hydroponic Greenhouse...gee I will work for free to smoke the best..

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 18:16 | Link to Comment russki standart
russki standart's picture

Hydroponic Greenhouse...gee I will work for free to smoke the best..

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Rebel
Rebel's picture

Not that kind of hydroponic greenhouse. 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 03:07 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Lions aren't scavengers unless you force them to it. Which is what they've done to productive people who should be creating wealth at a productive job instead of living off the pogey. They're like lions in a zoo.

Also, unemployment benefits max out at half of working salary in most places. So if you were making a good wage on the job, you're going to get way less than half the working salary.

We've all had full-time jobs that pay less than the maximum unemployment benefits. At the time, I wasn't making mortgage payments or engaging in other adult activities.

Most of our unemployed aren't any lazier than the rest of us. They're screwed by the system. It's disgusting to use them as scapegoats for the crimes against humanity perpetrated by people so greedy and useless that I'd happily hollow each of them out with a spoon and plant tomatoes in their hides.

Don't go shitting on our unemployed unless you like the feel of a spoon cleaning out your innards.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 03:42 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

+infinity.

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Most of our unemployed aren't any lazier than the rest of us.

Don't go shitting on our unemployed unless you like the feel of a spoon cleaning out your innards.

What crap. The two people I know on EUC are both not planning on returning to the labor force until pushed. Both have also now been collecting for longer than their stint at the qualifying employment. Neither is a household breadwinner. SINCE the Gummint is structurally unable to distinguish between the deserving and the opportunistic, BLAME the opportunistic for the early derailment of the lumpy gravy train. 

Oh, and expect that spoon up YOUR ass when the time comes, as the utopians and the math deficient get it right alongside the banksters. 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 14:30 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Perhaps the only work they'll find is by force.  Voluntary left the building about a year ago when employers refused these people.

Whether the businesses are forced(lower qualifications per dollar) or the unemployed are forced(even moreso) is the question.

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 04:42 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and, dr., i didn't notice a 99 week time limit on the too big to fail.  i believe they have unlimited rights to the nation's treasury for an infinite amount of time.  not changed one bit in the enormous but largely inconsequential financial "reform" wending its way to an increased consumer cost of banking near you.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:13 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I'm not expecting TBTF guys to even have 99 weeks left. There's something stinky getting sucked into the blades even as we revel on the Internet.

There's nothing left in this balloon but hot air, and the pricks are racing this way.

We're going to either be in reboot or chaos stage within 99 weeks. Count on it.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:44 | Link to Comment Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

reboot or chaos they are gonna be one and the same.  can i sell anyone at 99?

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:31 | Link to Comment macroeconomist
macroeconomist's picture

+ millions Dr Sandi..The biggest success of the system is to make labourers fear and hate each other by directing anger towards the unemployed or pensioners. The unemployed ARE NOT the guilty ones, they are not responsible for the current state of the economy, and THEY ARE NOT LAZIER THAN ANY OF THOSE DICKHEADS who just happen to have a job at the moment and talk bullshit about them. I seriously hope all those with a job now and blame the unemployed get fired as soon as and join the "parasites" to be humiliated in the same way..Only then, you may empathize with those people and understand how it feels like..

p.s. I am not American + I am employed

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:00 | Link to Comment i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

is it possible that there are two sorts of unemployeds???

i've met both kinds, and both are as real as the cheetos they bought with their checks.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Ding ding ding!!! And ONE sort is screwing the OTHER sort. If "Uncle" wasn't too damn bloated, and akin to a mortgage mill himself, "he" would be attempting to differentiate between the two, alleviating some of the anger from the sentient taxpaying populace.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:58 | Link to Comment keepmydollar
keepmydollar's picture

I agree there are two kinds.  Not everyone who is unemployed is lazy, but in my experience when RIF's occur the people let go are largely the least productive and complain the most.

http://www.keepmydollar.com/2009/10/20/high-unemployment-here-to-stay-fo...

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:36 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

I beg to differ.  The unemployed are responsible if they exercised their right-to-select-who-is-pointing-the-gun-at-their-head (voting).  If they ever cast a vote for a Dem or Repub they are responsible.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 08:56 | Link to Comment macroeconomist
macroeconomist's picture

Bendromeda and Knoknot

I totally agree with both of your points, there are some who abuse the current unemployment benefit scheme, I personally have met some in the U.K who proudly state that they are not looking for a job and not planning to do so..On the other hand, some of these people rightly claim that if the government is transferring billions to the banks and financial companies, they themselves have all the right to  claim the unemployment benefits for as long as they can without looking for a job.In a sense, this can be viewed as a class war between bankers and labourers.

I would also say that when evaluating (all sorts of) benefits, one needs to take into account the relative burden of these on the budget compared with the transfers to banks..I would personally prefer my taxes to feed millions of unemployed - even the ones that abuse the system- rather than a bunch of greedy motherf.cker bankers.. If I want to chase where my taxes are spent, there are tens of other items that frustrate me much much more than unemployment benefits...

And cossack, I could not agree more with individual responsibility if they voted for democrats, republicans in the U.S, or tories,labour, libdems in the U.K. Every nation is governed in the way they deserve to be..All we can do is to try to open their eyes to the blatant truth.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:00 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

No dispute, Mac.  The phrase "None so blind as he who will not see" comes to mind.  After years of trying to shake people awake I grow weary.  I will not stop, but man am I TIRED!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:14 | Link to Comment grunion
grunion's picture

The mantle you wear, bringing truth to the unenlightened, must be so heavy. How do you bear the responsibility?

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:07 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Not so much responsibility as an avocation.  I apparently have always had the "crazy uncle in the attic" syndrome.  As one of the former blind, after 1000s of hours on research and edumacation I was brought into the light.  If you don't pass it on whats the point.  It can only be wisdom when used.  Otherwise just knowledge.  Wisdom takes a toll.  Darn near as expensive as liberty. 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 16:23 | Link to Comment i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

indeed

but the slackers will always find a scapegoat for their opportunism. and to some degree, if the treserve is giving away 99 weeks of free money... why the f-- not not take it? especially if there really *are* no jobs (9.7% my ass - shadow-stats.com, etc.)

the responsibility/voting issue is a little bit different. i don't think it would have made an iota of difference if we were cursing McCain right now.

i don't think anyone has had a real voting choice in the 10+ elections, actually. it's a one-party system now, and for a while longer.

groomed, picked, paid for - before we ever know their names.

alternate party candidates not-withstanding, perot was probably the last real candidate to be a threat to the current 'system'.

the unemployment is in the noise compared the the other crap going on.

many argue that it's about time to flush the national ammunition stores. getting dusty, and all.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 18:12 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Hard to believe there is much left after 10 years killin' mediteranian looking types.  Not to mention consumer sales in the billions of rounds of small arms ammo.  I do know for a fact that there are at least 535 dumb bombs stored in DC. 

Mon, 06/28/2010 - 05:35 | Link to Comment i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

c'mon coss,

some of it's got to be over two weeks old - stuck at a truck-stop or somethin'

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 06:33 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Dr. Sandi - welcome to the party.

It's like going off about welfare.  TARP was billions in welfare for the truely unneedy.

Borrowing at ZIRP to buy T-Bills at 3% looks like a direct cash injection from the debt-slaves and the children of the debt slaves to the Banksters.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:03 | Link to Comment Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

Yes and IMF banksters are coming to steal your infrastructure...they are just getting warmed up with Greece.

The fiat currency system died in 2008 but the banksters hit the printing presses for a number of reasons but i guess primarily - 

a) Obama the saviour could have sugar high economy in which to get hit horrific fascist laws passed.

b) Get investors to plough their money into capital control USD assets while the PIIGS etc.. were having their riots.  Building up the $ as a 'safe haven'...like lambs to the slaughter.

This has been articulately planned from the get-go and will end in global government, tax and currency whilst destroying the middle class of the industrialised nations in order to bring our standard of living down to a Chinese labourer.

Obama Head of the UN Security Council "No world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will succeed". 

Too many people think in 4 year terms.  That's not how the world works and it's certainly not how the global planners work.  They work in 25-50 year timespans (depending technological advances).

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:05 | Link to Comment Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

i'd vote for you!

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

Bravo! Bravo! A voice of reason! The goofs who think unemployment is great living are morons. Live on 364$ a week in IL. and tell me your living the high life. Unemployment gets you several months to find a job or go bankrupt. If you think living hiding in your home with gun in hand is great living move to Mexico.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Stevm30
Stevm30's picture

Nope - the unemployed aren't any lazier.  They're no better either.  Greed didn't "screw them".  Everyone's greedy.  Including them.  They take the Government's money and are justly ridiculed/hated.  Bankers took the Government's money (our money) - and are also justly ridiculed/hated.  Common denominator?  Government giving people our money.  It needs to stop.  Populist anger against greedy bankers - which is prevalent on Zerohedge - is unhelpful, and not productive.  "Crimes against humanity"??  How important will TARP be to you when you cast your vote in November?

Educate yourself:

House: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2008-101

Senate: http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm...

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:05 | Link to Comment grunion
grunion's picture

Meat alone is insufficient for the lion's in numerous dietary requirements. Meat alone will kill just as surely as a bullet.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:54 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

"and what dress Obama is wearing" :: there fixed it for you.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:46 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

I think the govt found the perfect way to remove people from the unemployment numbers. One million less people will be instantly removed from official unemployment numbers. I have been watching the debt clock lately and they have a cell reporting actual unemployed it was slowly trickling up last week and now it is screaming down. over 100000 removed in the last few hours. I don't know how this thing is calibrated but I would look for some Knockout(Bogus) unemployment figures with reported unemployed substantially lower come next report. And of course the usual 500 pt market pop.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:58 | Link to Comment Ti9ers Wood
Ti9ers Wood's picture

I had a "dream" that we as a country were 2 years down the road and there was an actual incentive being rolled out as legislation that would take your age ,I.Q. and work potential and come up with a figure that would be paid out to your benificiary if you offed yourself or came to a Govt. clinic to have them do it.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 00:21 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

And then they make red and green squares for your kiddies halloween treats. What a wonderful outlook.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:40 | Link to Comment VampireSquirrel
VampireSquirrel's picture

A friend of mine commented that unemployment is a small price to pay to keep these people out of our offices getting in the way of accomplishing work.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:52 | Link to Comment lawton
lawton's picture

Are you at one of those companies that won't hire anyone that is unemployed when you have an opening ?

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 00:00 | Link to Comment VampireSquirrel
VampireSquirrel's picture

The guy who said that doesn't work at my company, so I don't know if that's the policy there. My firm wouldn't have a problem hiring someone who is unemployed. We have positions open but nobody who has applied for them so far is qualified.

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 01:14 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Which positions ?


Sun, 06/27/2010 - 03:09 | Link to Comment Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Bent over, picking tomatoes in Kissimmie, FL.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 04:50 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and note the no reply.  lots of this stuff is propaganda masquerading as truth a la reagan's welfare queens, etc.  not that there isn't abuse.  but compared to tbtf or the military industrial complex?  true chickenfeed.  and marginally economically benign compared to trying to make good irrevocably bad loans or make war in most cases.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:05 | Link to Comment i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

overton window - at TARP time, if they had said we need 1 billion as welfare/unemployment giveaways.

but if they took 1 trillion... then gave a few billion in welfare/unemployment.

i agreee that the extensions are indeed chicken-feed in the big scheme. but those checks do hinder motivation. it's just human nature.

a reset is coming. when and how are the exciting part.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 14:15 | Link to Comment VampireSquirrel
VampireSquirrel's picture

No reply because I don't hang out here trolling comments, I had other things to do last night.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Only illegals welcome...that's why he does not know about applicant volume..lol

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 14:17 | Link to Comment VampireSquirrel
VampireSquirrel's picture

Financial software sales, night-shift system admin.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Is that like "Chief Administrative Officer for Photocopiers Asia-Pacific".

 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 04:19 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Make use of the US citizens that are there and train them - and don't bother trying to penalize them for it.  Most likely you're just being overkill on qualifications as a lazy HR sort.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:54 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

+1. Saying "we can't find anyone qualified" is almost always an excuse to either avoid training, or to justify bringing in a low-paid guest worker. You can always find qualified people if you increase the salary being offered.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 09:55 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

You forgot to add, "assuming your company can afford to offer that salary and/or offer that training."

There's a whole lot of taxes and regulations piled on them already, and the current lot plans to pile on lots more.  The lameduck Congress is going to get superbusy after the November elections passing more horrors to tie up our productivity into their control freak schemes.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:40 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

They'll be pretty busy getting the budget into place.  They'll only have until 3d week of Jan. - Ned

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

exactly.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 00:22 | Link to Comment WeeWilly
WeeWilly's picture

I love it, Vampire! There is an old quote, "the person who says it can't be done should get out of the way of those who are doing it"...

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:41 | Link to Comment acslater
acslater's picture

Unless I'm mistaken, people who receive unemployment benefits need to at least claim to the government that they've looked for work every week, which means they are counted in the labor force. So I would not expect this to cause as spike. 

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Insiderman
Insiderman's picture

Agreed.  These people are part of the unemployment picture already.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:45 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

acslater

If they drop off the unemployment rolls, the number decreases.
That has been the problem since Johnson, I think, jiggering how the unemployed were counted.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:56 | Link to Comment acslater
acslater's picture


That could happen, certainly, but I imagine if we completely lost track of these people they would get removed from both the labor force and unemployment rolls, i.e. numerator and denominator. Regardless, you're not going to see a 100-200 bp uptick in the unemployment rate because of this.

Now, I expect you might see the unemployment rate test 10.1, 10.2 because of the census winding down in the next few months, but that's another story.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 13:34 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...if we completely lost track of these people...

We can track and count them with a simple accounting of the sale of pitchforks.

No problem.

Mon, 06/28/2010 - 05:37 | Link to Comment i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

ahhh, but i bought mine with cash... :^)

Mon, 06/28/2010 - 12:15 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Where have you been for the last 40 years?!

The gubmint mandates the reporting of all farm implements with handles over 24 inches long and working heads with a honed surface.

The Supreme Court rules that such implements fall within the purview of the Second Amendment for licensing and lethality.

Sheesh.l

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 08:08 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

Different surveys...

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Unless I'm mistaken, people who receive unemployment benefits need to at least claim to the government that they've looked for work every week, which means they are counted in the labor force. So I would not expect this to cause as spike.

Yes - over the phone to an automated system in my state. Efficient, not effective.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:44 | Link to Comment lawton
lawton's picture

It will not surge to 10.5% - the surveyors have been told to really make an effort to get that " I am so frustrated I have quit looking for work" response to keep the total pool of workers down. We can lose jobs overall and get the number down with that strategy and it doesn't matter if shadowstats and them show the real rate at 22% and climbing. They will say look good news we lost a few jobs in June but unemployment is going down.... 

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:46 | Link to Comment Ti9ers Wood
Ti9ers Wood's picture

Is there an App that will show me when my benefits run out?

</sarcasm>

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 02:29 | Link to Comment subqtaneous
subqtaneous's picture

don't be slashin' good sarcasm.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 14:03 | Link to Comment juangrande
juangrande's picture

subq      I just love mid to late 70's bowie. " As they pull you out of the oxygen tent, you ask for the latest party"

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 03:44 | Link to Comment sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Wolfram Alpha. - http://www.wolframalpha.com/

Enter in the date you started receiving benefits + the number of weeks.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 13:01 | Link to Comment stev3e
stev3e's picture

I have one.  It came coupled with my horse racing program.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:49 | Link to Comment trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Combine this with the forthcoming state and local worker implosion as FY2011 state budgets begin in a week.

 

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:51 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

+1

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:55 | Link to Comment lawton
lawton's picture

I know July is going to be a blood bath in many local govts here in Florida. The state has already made their cuts mostly but could have to make more later in the year if sales taxes drop again which it appears they might....

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 07:07 | Link to Comment i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

maybe the states can just skip the whole budget thing this year too...

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

He's right tho' - we need to clear some deadwood from the rolls as the fresh municipal meat assumes the position. I don't know about your town/state, but some of this is necessary.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Kali
Kali's picture

Yes, the problem is they cut the "worker bees" and keep all the bureaucrats, policymakers and administrators.  So, actual services to the public will suffer, but the people who most often cause the greatest harm and get paid the most money, don't get cut. 

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 16:30 | Link to Comment i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

first guy in the rice line gets the biggest scoops. doesn't matter if he doesn't need the rice.

same in any power hierarchy.

skill/contribution is not relevant. seniority...

can't wait 'till i can vote myself a pay-raise/99% pension and retire at 40.

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

This should be good for a 10-handle pop on the /ES futures on Sunday evening...

 

But in all seriousness: If they are already unemployed, why wouldn't they be counted now in the unemployment rate?  Wouldn't an unemployed person receiving unemployment benefits not meet the definition of someone in the unemployment rate?  And assuming those people do find jobs, wouldn't that skew the monthly employment numbers upward?  E.g, "1.3 million jobs were created this month" headline from BLS

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:59 | Link to Comment lawton
lawton's picture

The reported unemployment rate is a survey of 60,000 households I believe and has nothing to do with people receiving unemployment unless they happen to be surveyed. Back in 94 they stopped counting people that have been unemployed more than a year and havent looked in a few weeks. I think Shadowstats gets the extra 4% + over the U6 by counting them still...

Sat, 06/26/2010 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Augustus
Augustus's picture

The question that always come up in discussions of unemployment benefits is this:

Would there be unemployment if there were not unemployment benefits?

There certainly would not be long term unemployment, at least from my assessment.

If your brother or sister became unemployed and needed some money to keep the electriccity on, I suspect you would hand it over.  but after some period of time, wouldn't you expect them to actually be doing something to earn some inccome?  Maybe it is not as great as the last job.  But would you gladly just hand over the cash for the rent, utilities, food, cell phone, etc, while they did nothing?  Hell, if picking grapes is all they can find, they have to pick grapes for a while.

Sun, 06/27/2010 - 00:15 | Link to Comment Brett in Manhattan
Brett in Manhattan's picture

Good post.

I'm interested in these so-called "discourage" workers. How do they survive?

I don't have the option of becoming discouraged unless I wanna end up under a bridge.

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