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As 1.3 Million Americans Are About To Lose Their Jobless Benefits This Week, The Unemployment Rate Will Surge To 10.5%
As we reported on Friday, a critical bill that was unable to pass this past week was the extension of unemployment benefits to millions of Americans currently collecting a $1,200 average monthly stipend from the US government for sitting on their couch and not paying their mortgage. As a result of this huge hit to endless governmental spending of future unearned money, the WSJ reports that "a total of 1.3 million unemployed Americans will have lost their assistance by the end of this week." Furthermore, the cumulative number of people whose extended benefits are set to run out absent this extension, will reach 2 million in two weeks, and continue rising: as a reminder the DOL reported over 5.2 million Americans currently on Extended Benefits and EUC (Tier 1-4). The net result is yet another hit to the US ledger, as soon 2 million Americans will no longer recycle $1,200 per month into the economy. In other words, beginning in July, there will be $2.4 billion less spent each month by America's jobless on such necessities as LCD TVs (that critical 4th one for the shoe closet), iPads and cool looking iPhones that have cool gizmos but refuse to hold a conversation the second the phone is touched the "wrong" way. As the number of jobless whose benefits expire grows, the full impact of lost money will progressively increase, and absent some last minute compromise, the monthly loss will promptly hit $5 billion per month. Annualized this is a hit of $60 billion to "consumption", and represents roughly 120 million iPads not purchased, and about half a percentage point of GDP (ignoring various downstream multiplier effects). Worst of all, as these people surge back into the labor force, the unemployment rate is about to spike by nearly 1%, up to 10.5%.
From the WSJ:
On Thursday, Senate Democrats failed to secure the 60 votes needed to break off a GOP-led filibuster. Sen. Ben Nelson (D., Neb.) voted with Republicans in a 57-41 roll call. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said this third vote on the matter would be the last, allowing the Senate to move on to modest legislation cutting taxes for small businesses.
The collapse of the wide-ranging legislation means that a total of 1.3 million unemployed Americans will have lost their assistance by the end of this week. It will also leave a number of states with large budget holes they had expected to fill with federal cash to help with Medicaid costs.
Up in the air are other provisions that were to be included in the legislation, including some $50 billion in new taxes designed to help offset its cost. They included an increase in levies paid by private investment groups, including hedge-fund firms and real-estate partnerships, a provision long sought by some Democrats that will likely return another day.
Under a program initially enacted last year—which expired June 2—jobless workers could receive up to 99 weeks of aid, including 26 weeks of basic assistance provided by states plus longer-term federal payments. The Labor Department estimates that the long-term unemployed, meaning those out of a job for at least six months, make up 46% of all jobless workers in the U.S.
And like every other stimulus program, there are those who focus on possible cons from the program end...
There are economic risks in ending benefits. Workers receiving them tend to funnel money back into the economy immediately, helping prop up demand and jobs.
In addition, said Harvard economist Lawrence Katz, if workers are unable to find work and no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, some will turn to other government programs, such as disability and Social Security. "If you're really concerned about the long-term deficit, you should be really concerned about the long-term unemployed," Mr. Katz said.
and pros...
Other economists argue that extended benefits have played a part in keeping people out of the labor force. "There's a very large body of research that says that more generous benefits and benefits that last longer…encourage people to stay out of work longer," said Bruce Meyer, an economist and public policy professor at the University of Chicago.
James Sherk, a labor economics analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, said that while it could be argued that the benefits made available last year were too extensive, cutting off workers who expected to receive the full 99 weeks of benefits isn't ideal either. "You don't sort of pull the rug out from someone halfway through," he said.
In our view, what will happen is that the 1.3 million who had gotten used to receiving benefits (and for whom we certainly feel sorry, as once again expectations and reality under the current administration diverge in a dramatic fashion) and had no desire to look for work, will immediately flood back into the labor force to find some job, any job, that pays even remotely as well as what the government did. What this means is that the total labor force (which incidentally dropped by 322,000 From April to May) of 154.393 million, is about to grow by at least 1.3 million, and as much as 2 million, in July. And since census employment peaked, and the number of employed will stay flat (at best) at 139.420 million, the expansion in the total labor force, will increase the unemployment rate by almost 1% in just a month, growing from 9.7% in May to 10.5% in July. That number will be reported in late August. But by then the sequel to the Great Depression v2 movie will be playing in every theater across the land, and this number will be the least of our worries.
Appendix A: average monthly benefits check as per the Daily Treasury Statement and the DOL's weekly claims report.
Appendix B: For an extended discussion of jobless benefits, how they work, and how their expiration will adversely impact the economy, read As Extended And Emergency Unemployment Benefits Finally Begin Expiring, A Much Different Employment Picture Emerges
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usually UI insurance, in most states, is on a scale depending how much salary you earned when you were employed...if you made the max, which is usually around $50k to 60k annual salary (anything past that gets you no additional benes) in the most generous states is about $550/week...usually these are the most expensive states...however, if you live in western PA where cost of living/housing is very reasonable, you can do pretty well on their max $547/month but if you live in NYC $400/month does go very far. Anybody in any state that was a educated professional with 20 years of experience would likely find the max monthly UI much much less than their former job even if they get the more generous monthly level of $500/week...that's a salary of $70k to $100k down to $26k, and UI is taxed like regular income. States usually paid this for 26 weeks max, Fed stim money helped extend to 52 weeks-ish, much of the extended UI gradually decreases in amount.
full state by state list of MAX UI http://blogging4jobs.com/job-search/maximum-unemployment-benefits-by-state
also keep in mind big difference between US and UK - cost of health insurance. If you are insuring a family via an employer sponsored health insurance plan, between you and your employer (depending on how much the employer pays, some pay all, most pay about 2/3) the family plan can cost about $13k a year. If you are laid-off, we have a federal law/program called "COBRA" that says you don't instantly lose that health insurance, you are allowed, for 18 months, to stay in the same insurance pool if you pay for the whole cost of the insurance (what your employer and you were paying). When the mass lay-offs started in 2008, what happen is people found their COBRA bill alone was often nearly as much UI as they got, if not even more. Remember, not everyone gets the max UI, and people working min wage jobs with health insurance (often if main bread winnner in family is doing a job/small business that makes getting health insurance difficult or hellish expensive a second family member takes any job they can get, that offer benes for whole family, people often take jobs for much lower wages if the job includes health insurance, just to be in a insurance pool if they or a family member has health issues, you here people say all the time, I took the job for health care benes). So when massive lay-offs happened somewhere worried everyone was losing healthcare, and hospitals and doctors and insurance companies were worried they were losing a bunch of patients/customers. So in the Fed stimulus in spring 2009, they put a bunch of money to subsidize 65 percent of COBRA costs. So for most, they had to keep paying the same amount for health insurance as they had when they had a job, and govt basically is paying the part their employer used to pay. At least for 18 months, after that you have to buy insurance on private market, and unless everyone in your family is 22, thin, non-smoker with no previous visits to hospital, you likely won't be able to find any or afford it, it will be a lot more than the employer pooled cost of $13k per family.
There are those that would likely take UI as long as they could, someone whose spouse or parent makes real good money and they just had a job for "fun" money, someone who made very little money and UI is closer to there working wage (but these people likely need every dime they can get) or somone who is doing cash work under the table while looking for a job...
So our UI and Cobra subsidies certainly helps many greatly to keep afloat while finding another job, but I fail to see how anymore than a minority of people would prefer long-time UI to a real job, especially a middle class person interested in Ipads, even if new job paid half of what your professional salary used to be...you could still make much more money working and you would get health care insurance.
Doom and Bloom is right. In a jobless recovery jobs dont matter. this time its different and people wont need jobs, its the recovery that is important and with retail sales, housing, GDP all going down the tiolet the recovery just seems to be going great guns at the moment.
I see some economists are forecasting +100K drop in non farm payrolls for June. Cant wait to see the MSM and perpetrators of the ponzi put a positive spin on this one!
I can see it now on CNBC, FOX news "the jobless recovery has gathered more steam recently as the rate of joblessness has increased, there fore strengthening the jobless recovery"
There are two groups of unemployed; those who do and those who do not know how to game the system. The ones who do, will when the unemployment benefits stop (for whatever reason). The question is, are the ones who do not know how to game the system willing to pick up pitchforks and torches when the benefits stop and there are no jobs to be had? That will determine whether systemic change will result from this. Unfortunately, the pitchforks may be directed at the wrong parties. When Ronnie the redneck realizes he can't get a job picking tomatoes because some illegal beat him to it, I doubt Ronnie will realize that he needs to pick up his pitchfork and head for DC. That may cause systemic change to take far longer and be far more painful than required.
It won't be Ronnie the redneck out there fighting to pick tomatoes. It will be Frank the financial planner, Clark the car salesman and Roberta the real estate agent chasing Jose out of the country.
Then there will be no tomatoes.
Frank, Clark and Roberta have no idea how to do real work and they will promptly perish in the hot sunny fields-their faces turning redder than the tomatoes they were supposed to pick.
Ok, Jj. Then where the hell will I get the ingredients for my BLT? Huh. Answer me that, if you can. And what about the beans?
Roberta had a real fat ass and would probably make a good bacon-like food product.
+389.7 Jj, you are an honest-to-goodness hoot. Best laugh today.
Don't encourage me.
The beans are a complicated story.
Since Jose left, there was no market for beans anymore. We Americans don't like pedestrian proteins and in an effort to keep prices high here, most of the beans were being shipped to South America. Lightning struck the ship in the Gulf of Mexico and the entire Gulf turned into a boiling inferno of greasy methane soaked chilli.
Connie Condo dweller was responsible for ruining the last of the beans in North America.
In a tragic attempt to finally grow her own food, Connie traded sexual favors for the last six Topsy Turvy planters at the garden center--not realizing that they were genetically altered Monsanto seeds that would never germinate.
Jj +++
Fact is, we already had the "no tomatoes" scenario this winter. Remember when Floridians cracked down on all the illegals who were unionizing and otherwise acting in a hooligan manner?
I don't know about your neighborhood, but here on the exact opposite end of the country, our fast food joints were rationing the tomatoes because their Florida supply wasn't picked by the Frank, Clark and Roberta. Apparently when Miguel, Jesus and Roberto left town with the ICE man, they took their special tomato picking recipe with them.
Same here on the East coast. Wendy was hiding the tomatoes behind the counter and only available by special request.
"tomato picking recipe" = funny
The quiet blue collar revolution being fought with white collar weapons of choice is happening now.
More and more people will stop paying their credit cards (cc) for round two of cc defaults, and stop paying their mortgages for a continuation of a long 1 rounder in mortgage defaults.
People need to survive. Even if you back a mouse up into a corner with no way out, it will fight.
Payback is a bitch for the banks and finacial industry. The revenge of the desperate.
"People need to survive. Even if you back a mouse up into a corner with no way out, it will fight."
True !
Unemployment ? Nothin. Wait till they steal your meager pensions, pre paid social security , pre paid medicare , 401's , and bank savings at current 1/4% , all in the name of the NEW AUSTERITY . Lots o baby boomers have guns , and are veterans !! Ya think ?
They don't have to steal it (tho they will). They can just inflate it away (after the massive deflation).
slight correction. Inflating it away is stealing and they have and are doing so.
there is a far bigger argument going on here than is reflected in the focus on the unemployment number. that is what are the people being employed actually doing and does it foster a growing economy or not.
my take is that those people in a job at wally world or mickey d's or at a filling station are not in a career that contributes to the growth of the economy and represent the failure of past political decisions at the federal and corporate level to fashion a positive economic strategy.
you can also factor in the level of federal, state and muni employment that isn't required to produce the results along the lines of "how many census workers does it require to design a questionnaire that is completed electronically. i would say 3, not 250,000.
hence I follow u-6, then add an estimate of those people who aren't properly surveyed for propaganda reasons.
it would not surprise me that unemployment in the western world on this basis is around 40-50%.
to me, politicians and the various government agencies are the blue sperm whales eating the giant vampire squids and the plankton.
right size government spending and get back to good government whilst at the same time, raise tax rates for companies that sponsor dead end jobs.
The unions and the gubmint workers are the only ones with pensions left. Who they got a beef with?
i thought as people's EUC expired they became NILF? The numbers almost matched perfectly last time. since they cannot collect benefits and they don't have jobs they cannot be counted. The UE number is based on the number collecting benefits correct? Those with uninsured jobs aren't counted, nor are the ones (ex. new HS and college grads) who have never held an insured job.
Perhaps I have this wrong....but I think we will see the workforce shrink and NILF grow again, keeping the UE number in the 9.8% zone.
not the main thrust of my argument of "employment that fosters growth, compared to employment that doesn't" but..from here
http://www.bls.gov/osmr/pdf/ec090020.pdf
there is this on page 5 of 13
U-6 Total full-time jobseekers plus 1/2 part-time jobseekers plus 9.3
1/2 total on part-time for economic reasons as a percent of the civilian labor
force less 1/2 of the part-time labor force
and on page 6
Shiskin’s U-6 excluded some of those who were included as unemployed in the
official measure but added in a larger group of persons who some might consider
underemployed
. U-6 encompassed all persons looking for full-time work, plus half of
those seeking part-time jobs, plus half of those persons
employed part time involuntarily
(in essence counting some of the underemployed as unemployed.)
Finally, U-7 added discouraged workers to the U-6 total--persons neither working
nor currently looking for work who nevertheless indicate that they want work, but have
given up searching because they feel no jobs are available for them.
course u-7 was discontinued as it was far too ugly. U-6 should be uglier than it is! aint it funny how inflation discussions inevitably focus on employment levels?
These lay-abouts could get jobs if they would only get off their asses. People need to learn there is no free ride in life anymore. People need to be responsible... and pay their goddamn bills!
...and in other news
Kay Phaneuf, a woman from Salem who depended on an oxygen machine and whose death may be connected to a decision by National Grid to terminate her power for non-payment,"
When I look around the world, or read articles like this, the first thought that comes to mind is: don't make babies. The world sure as hell does not need my gene pool, nor anybody else's for that matter, so better many of us shut down the apparatus or at least just use it for practice, which is more fun than the game anyway. Plus, there is already a substantial inventory of pre-fab little humans out there. I often think it is self-centered to think one's gene pool is more necessary than what's already out there looking for a home. Maybe it's time we escaped our biological imperative and evolved, at least until we get things sorted out better.
pre-fab babies....nice one...I think its funny, one of the more selfish acts, having a kid because you wnat kids, want family like you (rather than adopting) ends being the one thing in most peoples lives that makes them have to act unselfishly...
good point to think on
in a way, this facet of unselfishness is protecting the giver's gene-pool. not so altruistic as it might seem.
Unfortunately, those who understand entitlements best think otherwise.
This got junked? Somebody must have a dose of post natal depression or thinks they are raising the next Mozart.
Or that people who think these thoughts should take a hint from rockstar eugenicist Adolf Hitler and commit suicide. It's all the rage as the hippest carbon sequestration technique (unless you opt for cremation).
Was not I who junked, though.
Read the post again, minus your bias. It's as far from eugenics as can be.
.
I thought I was having some fun. The death cults are good for the unemployment numbers, if you can hit the right demographics.
In response to the comments of those who think the long-term poor are lazy: not true. Travel around the world, and you will discover that Americans are, on average, some of the hardest-working people around.
The problem is that since 1973, union-busting and market fundamentalism have ripped apart the US middle class.This system is fundamentally broken.
For 37 years, real hourly wages have declined or stagnated. Productivity keeps going up, but the money floats to the top, to be skimmed off by tiny, algo-wielding rentier elites -- kind of like the economic version of a four decade oil spill, actually.
Instead of being paid real money, the middle class has been bamboozled into indebting itself -- cars, cards, mortgages, and college degrees. Instead of helping the middle class, the US government -- captured by billions of dollars in annual campaign donations and corporate lobbyists -- have made things worse, by throwing away $1 trillion per annum on failed colonial wars and a parasitic and unnecessary military-industrial machine.
We had one chance to trigger the emergency brake. But instead of spending trillions on renewable energy and green jobs, US politicians spent trillions on bankster bailouts and shady Fed Reserve swaps.
The entire US economy is one gigantic Deepwater Horizon, and we middle-class people are the endangered species in the oil muck.
Victim mentallity - the one true hallmark of Marxism. There was no bamboozling. There was only immature people buying things they couldn't afford with money they didn't have.
Yep - in a con game, the only person to blame is the person conned. The person who does the conning has nothing to answer for.
Not victim mentality. I think people were trying to defend their standard of living in an increasingly competitive world and rather than knuckling down and actually working harder against the competition it became easier to just borrow and buy the toys. No one put a gun to their heads and made them buy the incremental television set.
"There was only immature people buying things they couldn't afford with money they didn't have."
Sounds like our goverment;>z
I know the types you listen to and believe what they say.
great comments, but if Americans are some of the hardest working people in the world, what are Mexicans, Guatemalans illegal aliens in the US...off the charts?
I have my own small construction company (these days, really small! heh). The super hard working immigrant is largely a myth; some are, some aren't... just like native born workers. From watching the workers other contractors bring to the jobsites I can tell you this -- if the boss stops watching, the work slows down. A lot.
I think bosses that say they hire them because they work harder only say that 'cause it sounds better than the real reason -- a lot less paperwork and a few dollars an hour cheaper. No 6.2% SS, no worker's comp., no unemployment ins., etc... Plus if you never have to admit you have all those workers, you can hide more cash income from the IRS.
interesting...when I think about it I find what you say to be largely true to my experience, its really about incentives and culture (and of course culture pressures are about incentives too). I know some small crews of landscape contractors that are white American guys that can can some pretty good change in the summer, and man, do they hustle and they work smart, hate to wast time as the small crew all benefit if they build fast. They get their work from other folks that do the sales and marketing/project management so they are all about physical work. They can get an amazing amount of work down in a few days, pavers, walls grow like weeds. No crew with illegal immigrants work any harder and certainly no quicker...while the illegal crews likely make way less. My brother started a horrible job at a plastics manufacturer, and being a white guy, the manager said, when you quit, you will need to do this and this, as he assumed the white guys would not last, and he was annoyed HR had sent him another white guy. The employer violated almost every work rule in the book, the work was hot, toxic, physical, tough with nay a bathroom break. The reason the white guys left and immigrants didn't, it was because the white guys had options. They had friends or family that could support them some if they weren't working, they figured they could find a better job and walked when the conditions were bad etc...my brother stuck it out for a couple of years for various reasons, but I mainly think immigrants work as hard as they do in as tough of conditions as they do, because they have less options. Not because of inherently better work culture.
Having said that, if you grow up working hard in a field, in construction, doing work aroun the house, you will be a better worker as an adult...I love to hire kids that grew up on dairy farms...work ethic! and know how to do lots of things well...so I think there are some workers that are just plain soft as a group.
I worked 80 hour weeks (40 hr paycheck) while training my indian replacements, saved the customer from a major lawsuit from breaches of contract and cleaned up the less talented workers work...yet the jobs and the work went elsewhere and no one was spared.
The CEO walked off with $36 million in 3 years time, I walked away with an ulcer.
There's that pesky "race to the bottom" again. Now that it's really hitting white-collar workers and not just the blue perhaps we'll do something about it... I hope it's not too late.
damn, that is really low dog...sorry about that...they talk about meritocracy, but reality is good work is often ignored, not rewarded, and cast aside even when it is relevant, timely and helpful to employers bottom line
Tyler - the snarky comments are often fun and witty, but this one unemployeds buying over-priced Apple stuff is a bordering on mean-spirited and seems to be in bubble-land. I know a site about financial stuff will be cultishly fixated on the uber-media-spotlight on Apple and its stock and thus somehow have to weave that narrative into any post...but really, people getting $1200/month UI, as a class, being lazy people buying over-priced toys, really, that's the hacky, pathetic lines I expect from my old dad or some dorky conservative nerd on his blog with 15 followers.
If you are getting $1200/month in UI that is equivalent to $14k year salary, or less than min. wage. Now maybe the 24 year old with no obligations living with mom will happily take that over working , most people who have kids, want to stay in their apt or house etc, can make much more money working than not working, and even if working gets them only 10-20-30 percent more than UI, if you absolutely need that extra few hundred a month to get by, stay solvent, whether its diminishing returns or not, you want a job, you desperately need a job.
I know unemployed professionals like engineers, accountants, marketing people, etc who have applied for jobs, any job that does not remotely require the education or experience they have and who apply for jobs that make less than half of what they made before, make hardly more than they are drawing in UI for any or of all these reasons: just to be not depressed at home any more, reset the clock on having medical benefits as they burn through 6, 9, 12 months on their 18 month COBRA deadline, to get the few extra hundred dollars a month that working 40+ more hours a week because they desperately need that money to put food on table, get car fixed, pay utilities, rent, mortgage on a house they actually have some equity in.
And what happens when they apply for a job that pays way less than they made before and no much more than UI...no one will hire them because they are overqualified. They try sanitizing their resumes, but lack of previous Wal-Mart, Target experience exposes them. Also, if they have done professional Facebook sites or Linked-In in their attempt to find a job in their industry that their experience would apply to, the low level employers bust them as over-qualified by doing a quick google search.
Marketplace on NPR recently ran a story about long-term unemployed and they interviewed a women in mid 50s that had always had good administrative jobs (not jobs that you need a degree for, just solid admin jobs) and she said WalMart and McDonalds would not hire her because she was too experienced, imagine a degreed professionals situation.
I have a mid-40s engineer friend that was unemployed for one year, it ended when he took a job for less than half of what he made before and was not really an engineering job, but they appreciated having a technical person in the position, and he could have a job that sort of was a career, continuation of experience in a related industry to previous job (the jobs was available because last guy got fired, not because business was doing so well). His wife made good money and they have no kids, and despite the fact the could have afforded much more house, previous to him losing his job they were still in the first house they bought for 100k and had remodeled some, so his obligations and situation was much better than must. But he desperately wanted a job, networked like mad, cold-called on businesses, created a online presence, did anything I could have ever thought to do to find a job plus a bunch more. He also did side cash work as he is fairly handy and has tools. And still, this guy, while on UI, he didn't buy one new piece of clothing, not one gadget, not one appliance etc...and sold a bunch of used stuff he had around house,went into debt. And what of people that have children, don't have a wife making good money, are already in debt?
Yes, there are some people getting over on UI for over a year that will change their behavior once money is cut off, yes there are people without kids, without permanent homes that would rather collect half a salary for not working than make much more working....but really, TD, if you ever have a chance to leave your computer, go to the next job fair in your town, and talk to the people standing in line there, it would give you more insight into our economy than all the articles written by employed people...I think you might not feel quite so snarky after having talked to these people.
And yes, stopping UI will reduce money in private economy, but not so much for Apple, but for places like WalMart, where most people on UI shop, shoot, Goodwill might even start taking a hit, as the people that traded down to them may now not even be able to buy used clothes. Yes I realize that cheap places like this might lose customer but also gain the people that move down to them from high end places like Macy's...but my point is people doing well will still buy luxury items like Apple products, but there is a whole another group that has been spit out into permanent jobless hell that not being able to buy the latest gadget is the least of their worries.
For such an intelligent commentator, for such a well-informed soap salesman, for a guy that can usually see past the partisan obfuscation, sometimes your comments are 12-year-old boy hack conservative
+1. I have a number of friends who have tried to "downsize" in their jobs with no success because they were overqualified often being interviewed by peopled 20 and 25 years younger than they were. Those unemployment benefits that they collected did not go to iPads, etc. The simple fact is that there are no jobs out there. You cannot post about how the economy is rolling over, how consumer spending is declining, how literally every industry is contracting and how the overall economy is deleveraging and not connect to the last dot which is the dot labeled "no jobs". We can agree that there are people who game the system, push out babies, etc. But there are honest people caught in a horrible vice who are genuinely suffering who would gladly take ANY job but can't find a job to take.
I don't know if you have ever been to "see the elephant", (such a cute colloqialism) but you will soon find the preferred sense of humor is of the gallows sort. Another defense mechanism to insulate from horror. It is always about your particular environment. Stay nimble and always smile. Ain't nothin' but a thing.
+1
"...but really, people getting $1200/month UI, as a class, being lazy people buying over-priced toys, really, that's the hacky, pathetic lines I expect from my old dad or some dorky conservative nerd on his blog with 15 followers."
"..For such an intelligent commentator, for such a well-informed soap salesman, for a guy that can usually see past the partisan obfuscation, sometimes your comments are 12-year-old boy hack conservative.."
+Infinity...I enjoy the satire on this blog most of the times, but this sort of generalizations and conservative individualist stuff seriously put me off sometimes.. I was thinking maybe some of the TDs (there are many of them using the same alias) writing here are teenager republicans..I hope you take these criticisms seriously Tyler(s)..
Any reaction to the situation that isn't some version of ambivalence, great sympathy for some of the unemployed and exasperated anger at others, kind of amazes me.
Sorry, double post.
Little do you know about the "truth" in government assistance. The industry that I am in does property condition assessments and Lead Paint Surveys on low income housing, government assisted housing, and public housing.
In almost EVERY APARTMENT, where these people are supposedly "below the poverty line" and needing government assistance, there is a Playstation and Big Screen flat panel in EVERY BEDROOM, and every one of them has an Iphone, and now Ipads.
THAT is the ugly truth, these people for the most part of what I and my colleagues have seen do nothing, but live and spend at the taxpayers expense and "expect it to continue".
Tyler is again right on.
Little you know about the truth I bet, could you please tell how many households under the poverty line you have observed to arrive at your conclusions@? What is your sample? Your neighbours again? I am seriously fed up with pseudo social scientists here that arrive at the most stupid generalizations in the world by observing their "neighbours" or friends. What you see around yourself is NOT entire U.S and by any statistical means, it is far far away from being a statistically meaningful sample, unless you really have a proper study to refer to. Just because some idiots spend half of the benefits they receive on LCDs, Iphones DOES NOT mean you can generalize it the way some here are so eager to do. Which phone do you yourself use? Which TV? Which car? (I have a Nokia 3310, a 17" Phillips TV, and no car here in the U.K and I am on 45K (£) annually)
Further, the consumerism that has gripped the world is the by-product of the system itself, and you should not be surprised that some of your neighbours are poisoned by it. What have you done to stop such mad consumption in the last 10 years? Who have you warned about it? Or are you one of those Ayn Rand followers who don't give a f.ck about it at all? Then, you will not complain my friend..Those people are just maximizing their own well-being and don't care about you or anyone else at all, just like Rand recommends..
The Rand types know the world operates on incentives. Once you start sharing the wealth of those who worked hard to create wealth, that disincentivizes said wealth creation. The people on the receiving end of the shared wealth are likewise disincentivized to create wealth. The best outcome for almost all occurs when incentives to create more wealth are maximised, i.e. forced wealth redistribution is almost entirely shitcanned, in favor of letting each individual and/or family take care of its own. Opportunity explodes under these conditions, because of increased incentives all around. In this world, charity and family and church take care of the few truly incapable or destitute. Forced wealth redistribution crushes effective charity. Note that the current bunch of statists want to remove tax deductions for such private charitable action. It competes with government you see.
That's right YOUR perspective is in the UK, NOT THE MIDDLE USA!!! The "sample size" is also corroborated by the City Officials that I talk with, stating they see the very same thing, and they "administer" this program assistance. So your entire tirade is from a perspective to total ignorance. These PCA's and LBP inspections HAVE to be done ON EVERY HOUSE sold, and on all rental and project apartments that are pre 1978. The observations are in "every apartment and house" we do these investigations in. It is consistent, whether you accept it or not. Not my problem, but just because you are a socialist does not mean your opinion trumps the evidence and facts we see on the ground. Pull your head out of academia.
So the "sample size" is pretty much everything and in your face. Your opinion is as you aptly put: "far, far away from being a statistically meaningful sample" because it is an unsubstantiated opinion as well. DO NOT call me out on YOU OPINION as defense for your pathetic position that is completely and entirely incorrect.
Your pathetic postion attacking Ayn Rand illustrates your bias and intellectual dishonesty.
"What you see around yourself is NOT entire U.S and by any statistical means,.."
Goes double for you pal and your loose assed opinion based on idealogy.
I have tried to keep my respect for your opinions but I can see you do not show the same level of respect, so I will not either.
As I said, I want a proper study with accurate sample size, mean and standard deviation if you are expecting me to take your arguments even slightly seriously. Below are many other posts from actual experiences of people -just like yours- that refute your arbitrary analysis obtained from talking to some random officials..Believe me I will find as many people as you can find to falsify your groundless arguments.
I have every right to attack Ayn Rand and his philosophy, if I find it wrong. And like most on this website, you have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA about what socialism is. Everyone who uses some basic arguments from SOCIAL DEMOCRACY, and I say it again for the dumb like you to understand, SOCIAL DEMOCRACY, is labelled to be a socialist here, as if you have read even a few introductory books about socialism. Typical ignorance and labelling from the cold war days..Any idea that does not support wild, unregulated capitalism = socialism. now THAT'S PATHETIC. You first get an idea about what socialism is, what social democracy is , what Nordic type mixed economy is and then label me a socilaist. Not that I feel even slightly insulted by being called a socialist, you can use that to insult dumb Americans who have been bombarded by stupid propaganda such as "socialists even share their wives with each other".
And finally, you should learn that capitalism IS an ideology, the supremacy of free markets IS an ideology (just like socialism is), and when it comes to economics, THERE IS NO ABSOLUTE TRUTH BECAUSE IT IS NOT PHYSICS. IT IS A NORMATIVE SCIENCE, IT IS A SOCIAL SCIENCE,(I AM NOT SAYING SOCIALIST SCIENCE IN CASE YOU DON'T KNOW THAT DIFFERENCE EITHER). So you can take an infinite amount of positions with regards to economic policy, and none is necessarily superior to other, unless one can consistently argue for the pros of one perspective over the others. Once again this is NOT physics, so there is no grand formula that will give you the secret of life!
But of course if your only education is in mathematical finance or economics where formulas claim to arrive in definite conclusions about anything and everything, you might be tempted to think you have found the eternal truth..What a pity!
"But of course if your only education is in mathematical finance or economics where formulas claim to arrive in definite conclusions about anything and everything, you might be tempted to think you have found the eternal truth..What a pity!"
Wrong again! It is a MS in Environmental Sciences, multi-disiplinary.
Your aregument is nothing more than "neener, neener", or "I am right and you are an idiot".
You want a study, go find one, but you don't hjave a "study" to back you your opinion; other than that you are a totally misinformed miscreant, with your biased slant, and I don't give on whit to whether "you" respect me or not. My world view is not shaken by your opinion. I am simply pointing out you are 1.) wrong, and 2.) biased.
You don't like it, tough, then don't post nonsense.
You are either a troll, or don't understand English. Either way, you're not worth discussing with any more. I hate repeating myself but CAN YOU REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT THIS MEANS? (I have not called you an idiot but obviously I should have, your psot shows that wouldnt be wrong at all)
"And finally, you should learn that capitalism IS an ideology, the supremacy of free markets IS an ideology (just like socialism is), and when it comes to economics, THERE IS NO ABSOLUTE TRUTH BECAUSE IT IS NOT PHYSICS. IT IS A NORMATIVE SCIENCE, IT IS A SOCIAL SCIENCE,(I AM NOT SAYING SOCIALIST SCIENCE IN CASE YOU DON'T KNOW THAT DIFFERENCE EITHER). So you can take an infinite amount of positions with regards to economic policy, and none is necessarily superior to other, unless one can consistently argue for the pros of one perspective over the others. Once again this is NOT physics, so there is no grand formula that will give you the secret of life!"
So you can take an infinite amount of positions with regards to economic policy, and none is necessarily superior to other, unless one can consistently argue for the pros of one perspective over the others.
This is almost correct. Austrian economics is a science, although not a physical science of course. Keynesian, monetarist, and all the other "schools" of economics other than Austrian, on the other hand, are no better than astrology.
I can concur with your observations of LBP program recipients, I experienced the same thing. However, these are not "the unemployed" who are unemployed because they were employed and are not now. What I found of the LBP program recipients is that they fell into two camps. The long term "poor", who have mastered gaming the system and "white creatives" who game the system because they have unreportable incomes and can meet the low income requirements, even though they may be quite wealthy.
Unemployed people who were employed, I think, paid their own mortgages, bills, etc. until they became unemployed. Not to say they spent/saved their money wisely when they were employed only to find themselves in a bigger jam once the earned income stops flowing.
I know, but the problem iw that "macroeconomist" throwns these all in the same pot. In my first or second post, I made that clarification.
MY POINT was that we need to trim those Welfare entitlements and give those to the UE masses. At least it goes to one that is or once was productive for our society, other than taking gov't.oney to buy "big screens" and other crapola, ala consumers that are government funded.
everyman, I have no doubt that goes on but I don't think it refutes may comments about ong-term UI. My unemployed friends are in world of hurt, if others game the system, it does not mean that is not so.
I had a carpenter friend who did govt assisted insulation installation for subsidized housing and he mainly saw people making money from petty drug sales or other cash under table and then also govt housing assistance. He saw in both black inner city neighborhoods, and in rural white meth-head land enclaves, it seemed to be an equal opportunity, hide the income, get govt help thing.
But if all poor are so rich and getting over on the govt, then anecdotally, how do you explain the poor working class neighborhood near me. I see no ipads in the hands of the people waiting for the bus, shoot they are ecstatic about those little disposal hand-warmers I give to the old folks in the winter, I hate seeing old people freezing their arse off in the winter. I see the computers at two newly built, very well-equipped libraries packed with people waiting in line for their chance to get on internet. Lots of them tell me that only way to apply for ANY job, short of very small mom-and-pop place, is on internet and they can't afford smart phone, computer at home or interest service. Only Ipad in sight is the one I'm using that I borrowed from gadget-geek spouse.
Yes, I agree there are horrible abuses of govt assistance and from what I hear, the worst of it is in govt housing subsidies...but this does not negate the how rough many honest folks have it, poor and previously middle class and does not negate my points about UI and difficulty of finding a job.
I don't buy that for a minute. A big flat screen TV in every bedroom and everyone has an Iphone or an Ipad...My brother has property that allows section 8. Over the years, I have met many of those people who rented there, and none of them fits the stereotype you're painting. Bro's biggest complaint was the mothers being slovenly in their housekeeping and child rearing, but then they were never taught any better. Sure, there were little indulgences they allowed themselves, but putting forth their abodes as being akin to a yuppie is really stretching the truth.
You forgot to inject the Reaganesque line about chromed out Cadillacs.
good pts, my Dad rented some Section 8 housing for awhile and I saw similar things...sometimes they had some over-priced gadget or some such that most people with more money would not spend money on but as whole their circumstances were very low compared to the middle class people I knew and most young people I knew working a good job and renting a full priced apt would never want never trade their housing/personnel possesion situation for these folks...
Oh, "your brother's" property. And THAT is YOUR "sample size". Are your fuc..ing kidding me! Dude, we have done tens of thousands of these surveys, and not just at "your brother's property", and we talk with and interact with the City personnel that adminsiter these programs. You are just refusing to accept the truth of an observation You know NOTHING ABOUT!
"you are a socialist idealoge as well with that "Reaganesque line" referral. Why don't you just say you are a liberal socialists and be done with it. Be real, show us who you really are. Obviously not a capitalists or a free marketer with a line of BS like that.
As for the truley hurting UE, let's help them, but get rid of all the dead weight.
"The Garden needs weeding".
It appears that annecdotal evidence depends largely on region. I would imagine blue states are more inclined to game as they have had more experience. Red states and rural still may attach more of a stigma on the whole welfare/UE thing. Imagine thats changing now but still may exist. BTW, I hate the whole red/blue state thing. The symbolism is sad...red=commies, blood blue=truth, loyalty. Bunch of crap.
Don't agree with that. The rural areas I have worked in (all over the country) had a LARGER amount of people on the dole. One of the counties I am working in now (with same demographics as other small rural counties I work in), which are 99% white, BTW, have 75% food stamp and welfare recipients. They get free med care, car seats, breast pumps, food stamps, housing subsidies, etc. A lot of which, is not funded by local monies, but State and Federal monies. What I find in the rural areas, is that you have a small percentage of very wealthy rancher/farmer families and a much, much larger percentage of poverty level families working minimum wage jobs, if they are lucky. Reminds me of the old South after the slaves.
One other point about the wealthy rancher/farmer families, they are on the dole too, albeit, a little more indirectly. Many of them make the $$ that they do from government agriculture subsidies. One wheat farmer I know, gets paid hundreds of thousands of dollars a year from gov subsidies. In addition to huge tax breaks, price supports, outright grants, irrigation subsidies, energy breaks. etc, and, in the case of ranchers, absurdly cheap "forage fees" on government land where they graze their cattle. They also like to brag about how they have been on their properties for 5 generations, on land that was outright stolen from the Native pops by their relatives or "given" to them from homesteading on lands the Feds stole from the Natives.
PS- I hate the Red/Blue thing too, but I hate categorizing people anyway.
Always love your take, Kali. Kinda deep Eastern somehow. You are probably right. I am usually a day late and always a dollar short. I do take your point on the local JPMs and the whole land theft thing. Know a few of them myself. Thanks for the comeuppance. Need it from time to time. Much easier just being my old cynical self.
No comeuppance intended, just relating life experience. I join you in being old and cynical! ; )
BTW, "deep Eastern" , a coincidence, I am neither Eastern (altho part of me of Slavic descent) or Hindu. I just like the allegory of Kali! I always enjoy your takes too.
not at all, rural areas have plenty of this crap...my carpenter friend saw it in both cities and rural areas, all races...predominantly white as his state is predominantly white, but all races seem equally willing to live off govt.
I agree, there are the "culturally" poor people that are raised poor, on govt assistance and do not shake dependency and there are those hiding their income, doing cash work, just to live off govt programs as they can...I have seen many white middle class families in WI and MN rural areas get their young adult kids that I would condsider lazy, poorly-raised, undisciplined considered "disabled" for Soc Security benes for life. These are people who can easily afford to carry child as dependent their whole life if they wanted, and kids who could work a job, just don't want to...but I think you hear less about Soc Sec fraud because it is larger smart middle class people with access to good lawyers that game this system.
There is much waste and fraud in these programs...but does not change UI issues...these are people that had jobs...many very good workers, with relevant skills...and they will be cut-off while freeloaders still rip-off taxpayers...
I've done punchlist work for a friend who manages a 100 unit garden apartment complex that is entirely Section 8. My personal experience matches yours; nice furniture, multiple big screen tvs, etc....
Back in the mid-nineties I was taking some college courses, and I can clearly remember reading in social science academic journals some rather large studies about welfare/disability fraud. The usual findings were roughly 50% fraud -- healthy people getting disability, welfare recipients working under-the-table while collecting, etc..., but I'll be damned if I can find a single one of those studies on-line. Perhaps they are buried behind pay walls at those $300/year journals, or only in non-searchable PDF form...
How about this one?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/nyregion/21lirr.html?_r=1
A Disability Epidemic Among a Railroad’s Retirees
"Virtually every career employee — as many as 97 percent in one recent year — applies for and gets disability payments soon after retirement, a computer analysis of federal records by The New York Times has found. Since 2000, those records show, about a quarter of a billion dollars in federal disability money has gone to former L.I.R.R. employees, including about 2,000 who retired during that time.
The L.I.R.R.’s disability rate suggests it is one of the nation’s most dangerous places to work. Yet in four of the last five years, the railroad has won national awards for improving worker safety.
“Short of the gulag, I can’t imagine any work force that would have a so-to-speak 90 percent disability attrition rate,” said Glenn Scammel, long one of Capitol Hill’s top experts on railroads. “That defies both logic and experience.”"
Thanks! That's a big step in the right direction.
I will confess what you want: I am a libertarian socialist, and I am proud of it
See, told ya. And here we have a Keynesian with a handle of "macroeconomist" bashing Reagan and Ayn Rand, and you claim no bias?????
What a lot of BS.
You post crapola and get called on it, and you whine when exposed for the low life you are????
My alias is macroeconomist because I am one, and I teach it. What the fuck in life do you do? You are whining and swearing, which shows you have no brains to argue..So thats it for me, go live in your misery..
I get the socialist part, but where's the libertarian part?
I am not hormonally driven to answer the whose sample size is bigger question. Over a period of 30 years with those properties, I would think it's a good enough sample. Thank you capitalist and free marketers for the most fucked up economy and markets we have ever seen. Now there are no jobs either, real estate is imploding, countries on the brink of disaster, states that are broke, the stock market a surreal HFT fueled hallucination, and you're still mesmerized by a set of beliefs that have feet of clay.
The problem with rigid ideologies is that the answer probably lies in the middle. A ideology that will allow a Ghengis Khan like looting and burning of peoples lives cannot survive. The parasite that kills its host has no future. Is this not what we have been discussing here on a daily basis? Deflecting the blame to the unemployed, ninja loan recipients, immigrants and the poor, does not absolve the capitalist of their sins. I do not wear the mark of Cain. I am my brother's keeper. A Liberal Socialist if you must pigeon hole everything, run along and let McCarthy know you found another one.
There are the unemployed former $300k a year types buying iphones and there are the career welfare recipients that have playstations in every room while receiving unemployment. Then there are the rest of us, too many people who read or contribute to websites such as this have not had the wonderful experience of long term unemployment without gainful employment opportunity available anywhere near where they live or can find. Top it off with lack of well-heeled relatives who love them and take them in in their time of need. This disadvantaged experience level is the root source of much of the mean -spiritedness and craven generalizations. Their luxury of not having 'been there' is something they take for granted ... so it is our responsibility, no matter how much it may pain us, to try to educate and root out the ignorance so compassion may take its place and the wisdom of discernment of mind takes root.
+1.
I don't know what else to say, other than that I agree.
Ah the good old days.
Johnny 'Guitar' Watson - Ain't That A Bitch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R-9m7UpEYA
Eew, Lord have mercy, I can't get ahead, no way I try
Everything is out of pocket, somebody do somethin'
The brother's situation is abstract, listen, mm
Listen
I'm workin' 40 hours, six long days
And I'm highly embarrassed ev'rytime I get my pay
And they're workin' everybody
Lord, they're workin' poor folks to death
And when you pay your rent and your car
Note, you ain't got a damn thing left
Ain't that a bitch - yes it is
Somebody doin' somethin' slick -
It's got me wonderin', which is which
Might as well go uptown and dig a ditch
Ain't that a bitch - yes it is - now ain't that a bitch
But let me tell you about my qualifications
I program computers
I know accounting and psychology
I took a coarse in business
And I can speak a little Japanese -
Got to work two years to get one week off with pay
And when I'm on my job, I better watch every word I say
Ain't that a bitch - ha ha, boy
Somebody doin' somethin' slick - downtown
It's got me wonderin', which is which
Might as well go uptown and dig a ditch
Ain't that a bitch - it's way too cold - ain't that a bitch
Make me wanna holler
Ah Lord, Lord, Lord, have mercy to see
Won't somebody please help me to see now, Lord
I wanna play the guitar, come here guitar
Aw, somebody doin' somethin' slick
Now listen at this
Stopped at the supermarket to get myself somethin' to eat
And when I looked at the prices, it knocked me off of my feet
I was in the baloney section, and I had to take myself a close look
Now Abdul Jabar couldn't have made these prices with a sky hook
Ain't that a bitch - he he, yes it is
Somebody doin' somethin' slick -
It's got me wonderin', which is which
Might as well go uptown and dig a ditch
Ain't that a bitch - hm - so ain't that a bitch
Oh, ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, somebody sure is slick
Ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, sure is somethin' slick
Ain't that a -------- bitch
Sure is somethin' slick goin' on, somebody sure is slick ....
And the new US theme song is
Gil Scott-Heron
Winter In America
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGlRsjHTkbs
From the Indians who welcomed the pilgrims
And to the buffalo who once ruled the plains
Like the vultures circling beneath the dark clouds
Looking for the rain
Looking for the rain
Just like the cities staggered on the coastline
Living in a nation that just can't stand much more
Like the forest buried beneath the highway
Never had a chance to grow
Never had a chance to grow
And now it's winter
Winter in America
Yes and all of the healers have been killed
Or sent away, yeah
But the people know, the people know
It's winter
Winter in America
And ain't nobody fighting
'Cause nobody knows what to say
Save your soul, Lord knows
From Winter in America
The Constitution
A noble piece of paper
With free society
Struggled but it died in vain
And now Democracy is ragtime on the corner
Hoping for some rain
Looks like it's hoping
Hoping for some rain
And I see the robins
Perched in barren treetops
Watching last-ditch racists marching across the floor
But just like the peace sign that vanished in our dreams
Never had a chance to grow
Never had a chance to grow
And now it's winter
It's winter in America
And all of the healers have been killed
Or been betrayed
Yeah, but the people know, people know
It's winter, Lord knows
It's winter in America
And ain't nobody fighting
Cause nobody knows what to save
Save your souls
From Winter in America
And now it's winter
Winter in America
And all of the healers done been killed or sent away
Yeah, and the people know, people know
It's winter
Winter in America
And ain't nobody fighting
Cause nobody knows what to save
And ain't nobody fighting
Cause nobody knows, nobody knows
And ain't nobody fighting
Cause nobody knows what to save
Turning from Michigan, let's go to my state, Pennsylvania, another post-industrial ward of the Federal Government, and our useless Guv "Fast Eddie" Rendell:
"State and local officials are sweating the potential loss of $850 million in federal Medicaid aid, and the resulting hole in the state budget, if Congress doesn't extend a federal stimulus program. The potential loss of the aid could push the state budget deficit from an estimated $1.2 billion to at least $2.4 billion."
"Gov. Ed Rendell is one of the most strident of the nation's governors in outlining the negative consequences if the money isn't forthcoming through a six-month extension of federal assistance to the states for health care costs. The governor warned [about 2 weeks ago] that state and local governments would have to lay off thousands of public employees because of cuts in other programs to compensate for the missing $850 million in the fiscal 2010-11 state budget. [emphasis supplied - Ed.]"
"This will put us back in a recession," Rendell said. "There will be dire consequences if Congress turns its back."
Fast Eddie is best known for bringing gambling to PA in order to balance the budget and provide property tax relief. He rode to the governorship on the basis of the supposed renaissance of Philadelphia, where he served as Mayor during the late 90s-2000s bubble during which Greenspan-funny-money-fueled era even a tree slug looked competent to run things. He served his masters well, as the gambling is here, but the aforementioned benefits have failed to materialize. Just another crook on the take. He says he can't wait to leave office. Don't let the door hit you in the ass, Ed.
Point is it looks like the turning point has been reached, the $$$ will not magically appear, and the state will have to take an axe to its budget, and The Consequences will begin to show their hard, unwelcome, little faces.
This is what compels me to believe Bernanke is not as clever as some think. Since we all know he is a Keynesian madman and has long ago managed to convince the administration to injest the Kali-Ma juice ala Temple of Doom if youbare going to go parabolic with adding Money to the system and accruing debt there was a much simpler way to achieve this w/o adding to our debt.
He should have just printed a 2 trillion in secret in physical bills with only a few peoples knowledge and disperesed them stealthily throughout the 50 states. Since nobody truly keeps track of our faith based currency if I were as sick as he this would have been my move.
Not that I condone this action but I am just thinking like a mad mad. Nobody would ever know the difference.
Double post
Here is the big difference....IF he had paid off everyone's mortgage for 3 months, (or whatever timeframe) the crisis would have been averted. By giving it to the banks, he guaranteed that this would break the average American.
Here's another likely upward tick in the unemployment rate. July 1 starts the new fiscal year. Many states, counties and municipalities will be disgorging many thousands of prisoners from their prisons and jails in order to save money. While this will be 'stimulative' to some degree as people will have to fix or replace property lost or damaged in burglaries or seek medical care after a rape, robbery or bar room brawl it is also the case that parole and probation officers will likely require such released criminals to register with their state unemployment offices.
For the luv of Ray J are you guys retarded?
This is same sad old sob story that gets spun about the welfare moms sucking up all the benefits. "If only they didn't get those benefits we wouldn't be in this mess"
"If only those idiots who borrowed all the money from the banks hadn't refied we would all be OK"
Are any of you guys working min wage? Do you think that would make ends meet? I am only adressing those who who are not subsidized by Mom and living in a basement.
As for the guy who was trying to find day laborers try craigslist. I did and found plenty of out of work carpenters willing to work for $75 a day.
The system is broken and you guys are bitching about the symptoms of a failed economic experiment. So point your vitriol in the right direction. Point it at the politicians and their masters. Until then you are just their lapdogs.
Precisely what I was getting at earlier. Those with the most reason will not be directing their angst at the right parties.
And the elitists chuckle and order another round, as misguided anger steers well clear of them thanks to years, decades even, of misinformation and mass education.
encourage Black vs. white vs. brown vs. yellow
encourage foreign vs. domestic
encourage jew v. catholic v. protestant
anything but everyone vs. superrich and their politician vassals.
....
They are not retarded. You simply misread the causes they bitch.
They dont disagree with the system. They disagree with being on the wrong side of it.
This changes all. They worship the system and are simply angry at not being part of it.
Move on, there is nothing more to see.
Tent cities! Finally!
Welcome to favela!
Off the UE rolls and into the BLS "alternative measure" that differs from the headline number. If you give up trying, if you once managed a hedge fund and are currently flipping burgers then you wind up as an alternative number. You don't truly matter. There are international standardized economic numbers but unemployment is not included in those.
The problem with the 30 somethings who write these articles is that they have never seen tough times and still believe the bootstraps hogwash. Hate to mention this guys but there are large pockets of geography in the country where there simply are no jobs. Clinton county Ohio for example. So what are the people there supposed to do? Also the real travesty is if you look at the expense compared to what we spend for the real theft the priorities are appauling.
it is a sad day in the USA..jobs are gone and our VP said they ain't comin back.
What are people to do?? anything just do it.
Perhaps a claw back on Tarp and use the money for jobs on main st..The TBTF should have F.
they got bailed out and Main st USA is kicked to the curb..live with it or change it.
Perhaps some are waking up to the giant scam that is the Fed and high finance.
.no offense to Those who work on wall st, I understand it was us or them, kill or be killed,
take no prisoners.
I appreciate a good rant, and of course I am grateful for all the useful info on this blog, but TD man you have to get the facts right. By definition, people receiving unemp. ins. benefits are counted as unemployed.
Tyler, lately you've been losing it.
Not all of them are. There is a big number not looking for work and therefore not in the unemployed category. I read the post to infer alot of these people will now be looking for work and therefore increasing the unemployed category.
Let me make it simple for you .... All
A Union Carpenter in Chicago commands >
Hourly wage $40.77 per hour
Union fringe $20.32 per hour
FICA $ 3.12 per hour
Sut/Fut $ 3.28 per hour
Workers Comp $ 6.24 per hour
General liability $ .63 per hour
Total Burden $ 74.36 per hour
My overhead has went from 8% last year to over 22 % this year because of the drop in revenues.
So $74.36 x 22% OH = $16.36 per hour
Total Burden $74.36
Overhead $16.36
Total cost $90.72 per hour
$90.72 x 8 hpd x 5 dpw x 52 wpy =
$188,697.60 per year to employ (1) union carpenter and remember this does not include any profit
Try selling a Union Carpenter for a 10% margin at over $207,594.00
People look at me like I am "NUTS"
I'm fuc%ing done folks
Done !
In business for 18 years and had 42 employees at the peak of the construction season last year 2009
No More - Thanks to the Unions................!
Closing up shop.
Bye !
feel for you man...hard lines brother.
The Windy City is Union only? Really?
What was it during Bush's reign? and what exactly has Obama done any different than Bush? EXACTLY?!
NOTHING!!!
So, collateral arbitrage... the banks squeezing the amount of skin in the game and changing the LTV's... is killing you more so than Obama doing exactly what Bush did or served up too him to continue...
I know.. you don’t like reality... you don’t like facts... you wanna blame darky.. I get it... good luck leading your family out of the darkness... lmfao!
Here is those Union boys making a killing... WallMart made to pay and extra.. Extra! that's Right! EXTRA $0.20 per hour... whats the World coming too?
Unions secure additional concessions to allow Pullman Walmart to move forward
CHICAGO – A coalition of labor leaders, community leaders and Chicago aldermen today announced they have received additional concessions from Walmart that would allow the proposed Pullman Park development to clear the City Council Zoning Committee and vote on the full council floor without opposition.
Negotiations yesterday secured an additional $.40 to $.60 per hour to all employees after the first year of employment as well as funding for job training and other economic programs to benefit struggling areas in the city.
“After years of demanding more from the world’s most profitable retailer, we have reached a point where we have received more guarantees over wages, community benefits and construction than any other place in the world,” said Dennis Gannon, President of the Chicago Federation of Labor. “The time is right to bring retail and construction jobs to the people of Chicago. We will be vigilant about holding Walmart accountable for the promises it has made to us and to the community.”
http://www.chicagolabor.org/
This is killing the free market... as for ONLY! Union! in Chicago? well see Vinney or whoever that runs the Unions... I thought the Mob in Chicago was all in Insurance nowadays?!
Run a cash only small business with one or two cash emplyees, kinda like a Greek pizza shop except for small construction. You'll be a lot happier.
Good riddance if you're just going to empty out on the unions.
If not, do try to explain how you can avoid/minimize collateral damage by doing so.
Did you misread my post ?
$188,697.60 per year to employ (1) union carpenter and remember this does not include any profit
Good riddance ?
In business for 18 years and had 42 employees at the peak of the construction season last year 2009
?
??
???
Evidently, there are some believe you have some sort of obligation to continue to provide employment for other people - whether you wish to or not, whether or not you can make it work economically - in perpetuity. And that should you, for any reason or no reason, decide to not continue providing that employment for others, regardles of whether you have the means to so do, then you must be held to account for the "collateral damage" that happens as a result of your personal business decision.
"by then the sequel to the Great Depression v2 movie will be playing in every theater across the land" ...atleast we have a date?
most of these posts show alot of closed-mindedness
the insured unemployed is slightly more than 3 percent of the workforce. that's only 1 in 5 unemployed persons. if you argue that by taking people off insurance means they'll find jobs, that's just not reality.
tyler says that 60 billion less unemployment paid means 60 billion less spent on ipads. i understand the satire .. but really? why even make that point, it shows the bigotry towards people's plight. like everyone uses their unemployment money to buy useless items.
if we're going to waste trillions on war and rich people .. can't the desperate/destitute be given minuscule consideration?
we've bailed out those who can afford a new car
we've bailed out those who can afford a new house
we spend billions bribing insurgents in Afghanistan so we can get supplies to the troops
we payed tbtf banks 100 cents on the dollar for toxic assets
the list goes on and on but when it comes to people truly in need this is simply an example where they don't matter
it's obvious many readers of this blog feel the same
tyler argues 60 billion less to spend on ipads but the reality is i'd expect some multiple of 60 billion to be the increase in crime as desperate people resort to desperate measures.
having read that last line i would assume many readers of ZH would then argue .. see, unemployment beneficiaries are just all criminals.
i was really saddened to read many comments .. i didn't realize so much hate and bigotry still existed ... so much stereotypical views
there are a lot of desperate people out there and when society turns their back on them, to me that will be our greatest downfall .. what next? the elderly?
rats keep winning the rat race
Hope and Change
Change you can bereave in.
"As Yoon’s poetry expresses hope for the future from times of great peril, which he tried to achieve through self-restraint and self-reflection, our hope is that this Earth House would be a house where we can reflect on ‘ourselves’ while living in the present era."
stolen without permission from Dezeen site
I was in Church recently. Everyone had a Ipad, apple phone or blackberry. They spent time comparing costs, plans, etc. One told me it cost about 400 dollars and something like 100 per month contract for two years to feed these devices. They are really no more than Personal computers shrunk to fit in hand with voice, GPS and internet plus video added on.
So I sit here on my old fashioned desk writing out a budget each month after watering the growing collection of food bearing plants out back. The budget says I can afford the fancy phones everyone is buying.
Guess what. I aint buying into it. Sorry.
So I guess I will be the only one in the entire Church without a electronic doo dad that cost money to buy, maintain and upgrade. If that makes me a social outcast so be it.
I have a Sony Walkman cassette tape player I bought at a garage sale for $2 and listen to books on tape to my hearts content. Any book where the late Frank Muller narates is worth a listen. Hope I made you feel better.
Cassette player?
You're not a Cossack, you're a Philistine.
China will send a representative to your door to straighten you out.
Fed's ZIRP is stimulating developing countries only. My 0% MM is paying for jobs in Malaysia.
Originally published: March 31, 2004
Bush Supports New Tax Breaks for Companies that Ship Jobs Overseas
March 31—President George W. Bush continues to support billions in new tax breaks for U.S. corporations’ overseas operations. Last year, Bush proposed new tax breaks to export jobs in his budget. Now he’s supporting foreign tax breaks in legislation before Congress. As Bush lobbies for the new tax breaks, a new survey of 182 companies shows nearly 86 percent of U.S. firms that are exporting U.S. jobs plan to outsource more jobs in the near future, according to a March 26 report by Reuters on a poll by the management consulting firm Diamondcluster International.
Bush is supporting the $37 billion in tax breaks for U.S. firms’ offshore operations as part of Senate legislation S. 1637 that would also replace a domestic tax break for exporters found to be illegal by the World Trade Organization with a new domestic tax benefit for manufacturing. While the manufacturing tax benefit standing alone would create an incentive to keep and create jobs in the United States, the new foreign tax breaks in S. 1637 will encourage companies to export more jobs. Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-S.C.) will offer an amendment to strip out the $37 billion in new foreign tax breaks.
Faulty Tax Policies Backed by Bush Encourage Corporations to Export U.S. Jobs
The Diamondcluster survey also found that more than 80 percent of the respondents were concerned that political pressure or legislation could slow their outsourcing efforts. The same day the survey was released, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry unveiled a jobs and economy proposal that calls for the elimination of U.S. tax breaks that encourage companies to move jobs offshore.
Faulty trade and tax policies supported by the Bush administration make it profitable to send U.S. jobs abroad and have encouraged many employers to ship jobs overseas. Nearly 3 million jobs have disappeared since Bush took office, including some 2.8 million manufacturing jobs.
14 Million White-Collar Jobs Could Be Exported Overseas in the Years Ahead
In addition, as many as 14 million white-collar jobs could be lost to offshore outsourcing in the years ahead, according to a 2003 study by the University of California at Berkeley. In mid-March, Secretary of State Colin Powell traveled to India, where many U.S. white-collar jobs have migrated, to reassure Indian leaders the Bush administration will not try to halt outsourcing of high-technology jobs to that country, according to The New York Times.
http://www.aflcio.org/issues/jobseconomy/jobs/ns03312004a.cfm
In a recent interview with the The Cincinnati Enquirer, Bush Treasury Secretary John Snow praised the exporting of U.S. jobs as beneficial for the U.S. economy and gave a slap in the face to U.S. workers: “You can outsource a lot of activities and get them done just as well at a lower cost,” he said.THANK YOU. Given the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, Bush and his dimwit US Labor Secretary Elaine Chao missed their monthly jobs creation target every month for 8 years. Alan Greenspan and Chao both chirped "health sciences" as the only jobs left in the US, and forcing eveyrone into health care jobs is absolutely counter to Adam Smith's ideas.
Given 10 years of job loss, there will be 10 years of unemployment benefits. Otherwise, people will be eligible for welfare and food stamps (the chart at my local unemployment office steers people in that direction), and welfare and food stamp use will be long, long term. My thought on a entrepreneurship is to teach people how to talk back to bill collectors. Make certain they are wasting more money than they every collect from you, including credit card debt. It would be much easier to keep bankers on foodstamps.
Let’s call it $2 Billion a month in benefits paid out... just for conversational proposes...
$750 Billion (TARP) =’s 375 Months… or 31 plus years of benefits?
I think we all can agree that the stimulus Packages… or monies being poured into the AAA Rated Corporations coffers exceeds the trillion dollar mark in multiples…
So, is the burden of debt really a bunch of couch potatoes milking the system? Or is the real problem or the real burden the amount of monies being poured into Wall Street?
The real problems are belittled daily by a bunch of wanna be Republican Conservatives… who pontificate about people pulling themselves up by their own boot straps or abortion... while the Country is Robbed Blind!
Drill Baby! Drill!!
Austerity Measures! For / or Against the un-employed / fellow American Country Men and / or Women… while we (as a Country) offer Tax Breaks to Companies who move Jobs Offshore / out of the United States.
The Democrats continue on the same path as laid by Bush… The Lobby controls our Government in Total! The Lobby owns US! ALL!! No exceptions!
The un-employed benefits being paid is NOT! the drag that is holding US! As a Country! Back…
There was a time in America when social programs didn't exist or labor laws or environmental laws. I wonder whats really being advocated here by the article and the agreeable posters?
As the saying goes "history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme." Mark twain.
There was a time in America when I could own you... Oops, still do never mind... Happy shopping!
I am for environmental laws, since I am neither under 25 or a Christian fundamentalist and I remember acid rains, rivers on fire (non-Biblical) a multitude of endangered species (which made a comeback) etc.
I am for Labor laws, since I, unlike many, do have at least a general sense of History and finally I do not Social programs are evil.
What's your point?
Just how bad are things: 3 food stores within several miles of where I live closed or went out of business. One is Albertson's that opened up in 1970s, the other two were supermarkets that catered to Mexicans. I believe that the super expansive Albertson closed because it could not compete with Wal-Mart half a mile away, however, the two small supermarkets that catered to lower income Mexican immigrants closed down because people were only buying super cheap fruits, vegetables, Mexican made can goods and dry bulk items; they could not make it up in volume and none was buying expansive American processed foods.
It's a tale of two cities. Eventually this is going to permeate to national food chains: All food is going have to be imported from Mexico or China because US made items are prohibitively expansive for large percentage of population. Think less than $200 to feed an adult per month.
10.5% ????? (say 18%)
Let’s call it $2 Billion a month in benefits paid out... (instead of the $1.1 billion number provided) just for conversational proposes... that should cover your increase from 10.5% too... 18% easily!
$750 Billion (TARP) =’s 375 Months… or 31 plus years of benefits?
I think we all can agree that the stimulus Packages… or monies being poured into the AAA Rated Corporations coffers exceeds the trillion dollar mark in multiples…
So, is the burden of debt really a bunch of couch potatoes milking the system? Or is the real problem or the real burden the amount of monies being poured into Wall Street?
The real problems are belittled daily by a bunch of wanna be Republican Conservatives… who pontificate about people pulling themselves up by their own boot straps or abortion... while the Country is Robbed Blind!
Drill Baby! Drill!!
Austerity Measures! For / or Against the un-employed / fellow American Country Men and / or Women… while we (as a Country) offer Tax Breaks to Companies who move Jobs Offshore / out of the United States.
The Democrats continue on the same path as laid by Bush… The Lobby controls our Government in Total! The Lobby owns US! ALL!! No exceptions!
The un-employed benefits being paid is NOT! the drag that is holding US! As a Country! Back…
Bread and Circus was not a food and entertainment program. It pacified the masses. The colossal stupidity of gving trillions to bankers, who caused these job losses, while telling the victims to starve to death and go without medical coverage is amazing to me. Really? Do we want a bunch of starving people with nothing to lose running amuck in the streets? You know what is going to happen when the Warcraft subscriptions AND the food run out? What the hell are these people supposed to do? We shipped all our jobs to China and India.
It'll be sad that more Americans will be done for, but maybe they will go have some peaceful protests now that they can not afford to spend their idle time watching 'Mercan Idle. Woah, didn't even mean for that one! Damn, I hate Hollywood archetypes.
In the same way you should try to keep with a bomb squad tech who is running faster than he's ever run before, I think an index on NYC handgun and shotgun permits should lead one to go get armed quickly. Those of us in NYC, the wait is about a month and a half. I look forward to investing in Pb very soon.
Someone look at TC on the charts and tell me if you notice volume spike of over 7 fold!?!?! Is that an HFT burp or??
I welcome the new roving bands of those unemployed. Let them rejoice in their freedom from the economic control of uncle sugar.
Any further extension will only postpone recognition of increasing unemployment. At some point benefit extension will be fiscally impossible to stomach and the extension will fail to pass. Shortly after when those newly non-benefitted patrons make their way out of the dark basement of mamas house to hunt for work, blinded by the light they've avoided for some 99+ weeks while playing vid games and bulking up on chips and beer the unemployment rate will climb.
If the rate indeed moves to 10.5 it will be a rude awakening for many.
I don't know if you're old enough to remember the media coverage circa 1982 when unemployment was at its worst under Reagan, but the media wasn't desperately trying to find "green shoots" then. They weren't desperately talking about a "V" shaped recovery.
If you remember those days, can you imagine how that same media would react to the unemployment situation at present? Imagine if, instead of adoring Obama, they hated him like they hated Reagan.
When Bush was in there just prior to the 04 election the media was still non stop telling us how bad the employment situation was even when it was improving due to a housing bubble and crazy debt levels...
You didn't free them from control, you only increased it.
Let me know when the long-term unemployed are sought actively for work that demands more than a pulse and a lack of other options.
No credit given for any answers that increase their disposability.
"Someone could do a reality tv series about the assholes on my block."
you live in California too?
we’ll be at war in 3 weeks or less
all 3 things are conected
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/parsing-recent-carrier-strike-group-movements
GEN. VALLELY: We’re reaching that point, absolutely; we’re almost to the point of no return here. There has been so much destruction to the country already that we cannot wait around until the election of 2012, in my opinion. The other important point that I mentioned was impeachment, which is another peaceful transfer of power. In my opinion, this situation involves the creation of that demand-resignation option which will then force an impeachment.
http://www.thepostemail.com/2010/06/16/maj-gen-paul-e-vallely-we-need-to-demand-resignations-of-obama-his-cabinet-and-members-of-congress/
http://redcounty.com/general-and-community-organizer/41307
I wish I could hang out playing video games all day. I have a backlog that would keep me going for years if the power and food were covered. (I used to do very well at finding the blowout sales where popular titles that launched at $50 were down to $10.) My Xbox 360 probably seen less than 24 hours of use since I got it last November. I liquidated most of my older stuff from the 16-bit era because it was taking up expensive storage locker space and it can all fit on a single DVD with emulators to run it on any halfway decent PC. But that still leaves hundreds of largely unplayed games from the mid-90s to recently.
But I just cannot bring myself to game while I have unpaid bills. Until my debts are paid off and I have steady employment, my games will just collect dust. I wish I could say I was making use of my copious free time by studying for new skills but I've always been awful at self-motivation. Otherwise, I'd have so many certs and other qualifications by now I'd have to be in a coma to be unemployed.
How about thinking about this unemployment business a different way.
Pretend for a moment that everyone received $1200/mo, whether they were employed or not.
Would you quit working?
Isn't this logic backwards? Isn't the whole scam of government unemployment statistics that they do not count folks after they're unemployed so long that they no longer get benefits? Isn't the REPORTED unemployment rate only how many are collecting payments? If so, the REPORTED rate may fall even as the real rate constantly increases. Or am I backwards, somehow?
This is also my understanding.
So the end of the extended benefits should show a massive reduction in unemployment.
Hooray, a victory against entropy!
Let’s call it $2 Billion a month in benefits paid out... just for conversational proposes...
$750 Billion (TARP) =’s 375 Months… or 31 plus years of benefits?
I think we all can agree that the stimulus Packages… or monies being poured into the AAA Rated Corporations coffers exceeds the trillion dollar mark in multiples…
So, is the burden of debt really a bunch of couch potatoes milking the system? Or is the real problem or the real burden the amount of monies being poured into Wall Street?
The real problems are belittled daily by a bunch of wanna be Republican Conservatives… who pontificate about people pulling themselves up by their own boot straps or abortion... while the Country is Robbed Blind!
Drill Baby! Drill!!
Austerity Measures! For / or Against the un-employed / fellow American Country Men and / or Women… while we (as a Country) offer Tax Breaks to Companies who move Jobs Offshore / out of the United States.
The Democrats continue on the same path as laid by Bush… The Lobby controls our Government in Total! The Lobby owns US! ALL!! No exceptions!
The un-employed benefits being paid is NOT! the drag that is holding US! As a Country! Back…