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131 = The Number of Years to Replace Oil
By Dian L. Chu, Economic Forecasts & Opinions
It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.
According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that.
The research was published on Nov. 8 at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory that market expectations are good predictors reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.
By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.
The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be “overly optimistic".
As I pointed out before, despite the excitement and hype surrounding a future of clean energy, a majority of the current technology simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers and lack the infrastructure for a mass deployment….even with government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates.
In addition, the supply chain of renewable technologies is not as green as people might think. Most alternative technologies rely on rare earths for efficiency. However, the radioactive waste produced by rare earths mining process makes oil sands look like a green energy. This overlooked (or ignored) fact just now received some attention due to the sudden shortage caused by China’s embargo and export quotas on rare earths.
Another case in point – In China, the city of Jiuquan in Gansu province needs to build 9.2 gigawatts of new coal-fired generating capacity as backup power of the 12.7 gigawatts wind turbines due to be installed by 2015. More wind farms would need more coal-fired power plants, with little or possiblyly no carbon reduction.
Capitalism means investment naturally flows to the more profitable proposition....and vice versa. With more data and information becoming available, not much could go unnoticed by the markets, particularly in a relatively new sector such as renewable energy. And this harsh reality is clearly reflected in this new study.
Now, in its latest long term outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil demand, prices and dependence on OPEC all set to continue rising through 2035, and that global oil supplies would be near their peak in 2035 as China, India and other emerging economies keep on trucking.
So the world needs to come to a common understanding that
- The alternative energy is not mature enough to completely repalce fossil sources any time soon.
- Energy security means a diversified and balanced portfolio inclusive of every bit of resource, fossil as well as renewables, just to meet the projected demand.
- Real "green" energy is easier said than done.
Furthermore, the increased rare earths dependency, and the latest food vs. fuel debate when the food industry slapped a law suit against the EPA over E15 ehtanol, underline some of the unintended (we hope), yet nasty consequences that often come with ill-informed and poorly-planned policies. (In the case of E15, the EAP is an easy mark considering one in eight Americans is on food stamps.)
All this requires a balanced and unbiased government policy to guide exploration and development of technologies to unlock the new fossil fuel reserves, expanding the R&Ds of emerging technologies, while effectively practicing and promoting energy efficiency and conservation.
Otherwise, we may literally witness $300 a barrel oil before the electric vehicle could even make one percent market penetration. Unfortunately, there's no easy fix, and the clock is seriously ticking.
Related Reading: The Alternative Fuel Vehicle and $300 Oil
Dian L. Chu, Nov. 13, 2010
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That's right. What's the old saying about the cure for $100/barrel oil? Answer - it cures itself., and it did. Where would be be today if we had left all the incentives to develop solar and to insulate that were put in place in the 70's?
So many simple things we could do, and will do when the price forces us to. On my first trip to the Orient in the early 90's, I was struck by the simple little electronic key system in all the hotels I stayed in. You room key was used to turn on all the electric power in the room. When you left, the room powered down. No running A/C or heat. No blaring TV or galling lights. If that technology was prevalent in Taipei 20 years ago, why isn't it prevalent here? The waste is staggering...and let's not even start on SUV's, mini-vans, and muscle pick-up trucks. Conservation is coming, like it or not.
>>And it will take 301 years, two months, and five days to improve on the push-up bra.<<
Wow - you only missed it by four days!
your point is well taken. the u.s. would be different even now if it had the oil prices of europe, not to mention the multi hundred dollar a barrel oil that may be just around the corner.
market capitalism as presently conceived is based on exponential growth. there is but one earth. something has got to give and i'm betting on the former (but it could be the latter as species disappear all the time)?
i do like that it was 131 years and not 130 or 132. what did the seers in 1879 have to say (verne called a few)? this does ignore that rate of change seems to increase with the passage of time.
"this does ignore that rate of change seems to increase with the passage of time."
The interesting thing here is that the investment [in terms of manpower and $$$] required to keep up with this rate of advancement is also increasing exponentially. Many industries are struggling with this phenomena as we speak. Look at the state of the pharmaceutical industry today. It costs billions to bring a new drug to market now. All the low hanging fruit has been picked...
billions to bring a new drug to market
Don't confuse a political, bureaucratic, monopoly problem with technological limitations. Alternative med is doing just fine, thank you, and will stomp the crap out of the corporate pill pushers.
Ignorance is bliss!
Hundred years ago the leading cause of mortality (65%) was infections. A superficial wound could have killed you, not to mention epidemics. Average lifespan was less than 50 years in the "developed" world, noone cared to measure it elsewhere. Alternatives are duds here.
Today less than 5% dies from infections. However, if antiinfective research stopped or just slowed down and didn't deliver the new agent to fight resistence the backlash would be devastating as we have stronger bugs and dumbed down population.
This is an evolutionary number game. Our only chance is to use reason, our superiority against there numbers.
Demagoguery is detrimental! It is too late to think after the damage is done.
My, my, hit a nerve. Where to start?
Infections and early death are mostly a function of ignorance. Simple peroxide will handle most infections and good plumbing and safe water are the most important health measures by far. See Haiti, China, India, Africa, Bumfuck Egypt, etc. ad nauseum.
Medical mistakes kill at least 98,000 Americans each year. That was the lowest possible result of the Harvard study. No follow-up, because the saw bones don't want you to know. Many of the worst infections ONLY EXIST IN HOSPITALS!
If I have a broken bone, I will go to the emergency room. If my legs are not broken, I will run for my life from modern medicine, the least professional of the professions, croney protecting, affirmative action ridden bad joke of our age.
Your comment just verifies me: Ignorance is bliss.
Does peroxide grow on trees? Do you think modern hygene and plumbing has nothing to do with healthcare?
Learn to distinguish if you want to diagnose the problem!
This is an interesting topic.
The mortality rate of infections was in decline before the advent of 'modern' anti-biotics:
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=G6k0tpPMRsIC&pg=PA136&lpg=PA136&dq=mo...
(and the discovery of the first anti-biotic (penicillin) was not the product of advanced medicine - it was a fungus, and Fleming would not have discovered it if it hadn't been for a serendipitous cock-up: http://www.jsur.org/history/Fleming )
It should also be noted that the resistance of microbes to ABs is a result of modern conventional medicine: they been prescribing them too exuberantly.
I love modern medicine, and for cancer or trauma or acute infections it's hard to beat. But I don't think the statement: "the least professional of the professions, croney protecting, affirmative action ridden bad joke of our age" is entirely unsupportable.
Funny. I thought about Verne as well. Sci Fi has an incredible record of translating imagination into fact. If you want to know how ignorant we still are about science look at The Trouble With Physics by Lee Smolin. The contradictions within existing theory are staggering.
1879 - no cars, no airplanes, no Lady Gagging. OMFG no cell phones. How did they survive?
Fossil oil permitted the developing of our industrial civilization.
Nothing else. Its the main driver behind everything.
Not many people know or accept how much energy and ressource depletion really happens in our civilization.
Did you know it takes more oil to build a new car than the same car is going to use up for driving in its whole life?
To build a car from scratch it takes like 10'000s of different steps all of them consuming very much oil and even more clean water.
I believe even with alien technologies we can not keep this level of depletion up... We would need more planets... then soon the whole galaxy would have the same problem when humanity occupies 2 million planets and has a population of 10^20 people... lol
What I want to say is: too many people being too wasteful.
Humans have to stop behaving like a virus... then we can maybe find good solutions.