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30 Year results out:
Yields are up from last month, k and that is.... good? Ohhh right, bizzaro world, everything that isn't a nuclear bomb is good... got it..
Hmm, I thought that was a bad thing if they have to pay more interest, they are going to need more paper to pay for the paper to pay for the paper to pay for the paper to pay for the paper..........
I found the rest of the green shoots! As it turns out, Nuclear Bombs are good too... I love bizarro world...
i was about to call you out on that point in your
first post but i see that you came to your senses....
for those who don't understand the benefit of
nuclear bombs their production creates jobs and
when they are used they are huge boon to
environmental managment firms, construction, and
undertakers....justifies a 1500 p/e ratio on
the entire market.
so you would have no problem if someone drops a couple of 8MT ones where you live ..
why limit it to 2? the more the merrier...the
sky's the limit....
indeed after the radiation propagates the green shoots
would produce genetically transmuted stalks
which would take us to the land of giants...
you have never heard of jack and the green shoots?
A nuclear bomb would make the market shoot to 15,000 in half a second
hahaha... led by ITT, GD, XOM and FCX.
D.O.D... common sense is.... well not so common.
yeah, trader in a chat room just told me to leave common sense out, and trade the tape... I wonder if he will say the same thing on the way down...
a nuke would give those green shoots a healthy, pulsating glow
i'm glad it went well; i was worried they wouldn't have the money to buy Tuesdays bonds back.
I guess we have to wait till next week to see who dumps them to the fed?
surprise surprise another rally...what's new
Well the stock market liked it for 3 minutes, and really, isn't that what really counts?
doesn't the market adore everything these days?
All algo news scores have been set to 100. Content of the news is no longer a factor. Any news = 100.
Big jump in indirect bids. Wonder who that could be for?
return to sender
I'm going to go out on a limb and assume you know the answer to that, and jump to this...
If there is indeed, say only $30-40 billion left in capacity under the Fed's $300mm purchase program, wouldn't the money (and I mean that loosely) be gone well before the end of October?
I mean... why would the Fed need the extra month, when they'll likely be out of capacity anyway?
When does the fed have a capacity problem? Is there really any limit to their balance sheet? They don't need to go to Congress and raise their debt limit.
I must be missing somethng somewhere.
What I have seen is that with rollovers in UST debt, the debt is essentially money. All that remains for the Fed to play with is how short the curve is. The short end is the dollar. The long end is the 30.
To keep the cost of UST debt from ballooning to the sky, the debt keeps getting shorter and shorter. Frankly I am surprised that there is a 30 auction. It must be there as a showpiece to demonstrate to everyone: "See no inflation, look at the 30 yield".
If UST went to all 30 debt, it would have a debt service that would be of the order of twice the current deficit. Hmmm.
"Capacity"? Oh...you mean the self imposed imaginary limit on MONEY PRINTING OUT OF THIN AIR...just like the self imposed imaginary limit on US Govt. debt (which has been raised, what, about 10,000 times now?).
on my mark,,, release teh hounds.
i'm glad it went well; i was worried they wouldn't have the money to buy Tuesdays bonds back.my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www.. hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
you are one seriously persistent spammer.
so how's that working out for you?
inflation trade rages on
while there is clamoring for 30 yr bonds yielding less than 5%
the S&P 500 continues to do whatever nets Government Sachs maximum profit
and currencies are in perpetual intraday chaos, frequently more volatile than the equity index! How wrong is that? That is just wrong. The G7 is a sick joke. I can't believe we're looking to the same assholes that delivered the collapse to deliver us from it, especially when it is clear that they are looting the Treasury with wild abandon.
Who wants to buy any shares in the S&P now? With this low volume isn't it just churning all day long?
Checkout BZQ, the Brazil short fund. No shares have changed hands today.
i would like to trade it but i'm afraid my 1 share would move the entire market.
"Different prognosticating groups" explains the apparent contradiction in simultaneous inflation trading & TNote demand.
One group are the inflation traders and pumpers (e.g. like Gordy G. here who keeps calling in-demand TNotes "toilet paper") ... and then there are the debt deflationists who believe King Dollar will rule (I'm in that camp).
One is right, and the other is wrong. We'll see who.
I'm still waiting for the next round of bank writedowns so the US dollar can shoot up - deflation continues... I don't see the US dollar as getting that weak just yet.
You guys hate it - but bernanke is actually skirting inflation/deflation quite well right now. Sure the underlying problem isn't being solved... but maybe in 5-10 years...
Not only is he doing the deflation/inflation thing pretty well, Uncle Ben is doing a nice balancing act with keeping interest rates low without the USD doing a total unravel.
The Treasury desperately needs market rates to remain down to fund the deficit surge-- while at the same time-- the equity markets needed to find footing. With all the smoke an mirrors, Uncle Ben has been able to pull off both so far.
I'm sure he realizes he can't possibly keep the juggling act going that much longer, though...
Uh guys, like Humpty Dumpty, all it takes is one little "bump" and we all fall down.
Gird your loins people!
Just wondering if you think Ben is juggling all alone?
Those balls in the air seem to be going to many jugglers, all palying a game of keep it in the air.
Sounds like the street bought it again and will be fulling willing to sell it back to the Fed before the end of October.
Help: Is there a way to search the forums on ZH for past subjects? i.e. entering "quant" in a search box to see articles containing that word?
you mean like the search this site in the mid to upper right?
Did anyone think this was gonna be a bad auction after all the hanky panky that has been going on?
At some point when the herd of stampeding horses takes its blinders off and realizes that deflation has set in.... people aren't buying, companies aren't investing, banks aren't lending, employers aren't hiring.... everyone is mortgaged to the hilt and trying desperately to make payments unless they've already given up and defaulted...... govvies are going to be in style like no one can imagine now. Get in while the getting's good. I'm buying OTM Dec-March call options on 30-yr USTs- obviously not a crowded trade.
Sorry, ain't gonna happen...not because the economy is recovering or anything (cuz there is no "economy" left to recover), but because people will start avoiding paper currencies like the plague - which means that both the dollar (in terms of Gold, not the misleading and meaningless DXY) and Treasuries will be headed down the shitter.
don't forget....if the market end up, flat or down --it will be a victory for the Bulls.
35541 is right. low to negative deflation means real yield >= nom yield and especially after current market run is much better risk adjusted trade. i'm reasonably happy just getting in etf, but the futures would work good too. it is impossible that US is different from japan here. use your brains - if fed is going to keep short rates at 0 forever, why should the yield curve get much steeper than now? collect your interest, stay rational, and buy equity or credit at better levels.
What is the etf?
I'm purchasing call options on TLT. It's not leveraged. iShares Lehman 20+US Treasuries.
yeah don't worry about leverage, thats a different game... TLT or IEF are fine. TLT is a little wilder given the higher duration, and the yield isnt massively greater than IEF... Just buy when you see mortgage rates getting "too high" cause you know that is unsustatinable and "the hand" will push rates back down. nimble is good here though, take some profits if you get a good pop over a couple days cause the vigilantes will come back in and try to make you think the USD is going to disappear overnight.
thrown in the dirt could get by the catcher and roll how far (without a backstop)? There is no risk when Bernanke is the umpire behind the plate.my newest bookmarked finance site ..http://www.. hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
TLT is much more liquid. It trades several million shares daily, if that matters to you.
I believe there is an huge organic demand for 30s. I believe in the Tooth Fairy, and Santy Clause too. I believe in spooks, I do, I do, I do...
keep an eye on the offer size of the sellers when FED conducts buyback.
when that infamous 7yr note was purchased by the FED, there were around $48B of debt on the offer. the FED bought only $7B of them.
it's Offer-to-cover 6.85. comparing to today's 2.54 Bid-to-cover, there are more than twice sellers than buyers for the US debt.
I just created an ETF,..where your are allowed to short Santa!
Is there a way to short Obama?
Sure. Obama's initials backward are OHB. Turns out that is Orleans Home Builders. Is there a better short on Obama?
Now if only the Fed would tell us what amount of the toilet paper sold today it plans to stealthily monetize (with even worse toilet paper). BTW, not to beat my own drum, but I faced some ridicule/flak when I postulated a couple of months ago that the dollar was headed into the shitter. I guess nobody is laughing now.
I for one never questioned that the dollar was going lower....when it happens is anyones guess but it will come...it's only a matter of time.
Another very nice way to be short the stock market is to be long Gold. The govt./Fed won't allow the nominal prices to fall down too far because it is too painful for everyone involved and because they have an easier way out - debase the currency. This will maintain the illusion of "normalcy" and thus their power, but the stock market WILL decline in real terms which means a rising Gold price. Just take a look at what happened from 2000-08.
Yeah, that seems like an inevitable outcome of QE to me. Worst part is probably the effect on average Joe since all the freshly printed $$$ end up re-inflating the deleveraged indexes and none trickle down to prop up true driver of the economy, consumer demand.
Actually a nuclear bomb would be good news. Excuse to start a war that ramps GDP for real.
Yup, only thing that could save dollar would be a world war three. There is a whole lot of people who are long weapons, booze and hookers for that possibility.
We've been fighting wars for the past 8 years which are by now more expensive than our involvement in WWII, I believe. It ramped up borrowing from the Chinese.
Gordon, I'm not sure I follow your reasoning. The USD is no longer backed by gold so, in a very basic sense, why does the govt. care about the price of gold? Gold and silver are inflation hedges. They're assets, like stocks. We're living in deflationary times. There are many fewer buyers of assets relative to sellers. Everyone is selling everything they own to pay down historical, astronomical debt levels. The only things that will ride out the impending wave of decline in the stock market are cash and government bonds. Debasing the currency is no "out" for the govt. Think about it, debasing the currency is the same as raising interest rates. The govt has a lot of borrowing to do to keep things propped up. Why would they want to increase interest rates while they're in the process of borrowing historic sums of money? Why would they increase interest rates when that will only increase the already astronomical number of defaults, leading to further contraction in the economy - that the govt. is trying to stimulate? If the govt defaults on the debt by debasing the currency, that will be down the road - certainly not within the next 12 months. When the 10-year yield is half what it is now, that will be the time to fill your boots with gold.
gold is always a good buy because it is money...
there is no other money (yes silver is money too -
in the small)
federal reserve notes are media of exchange....nothing
more...and hardly money....
thus the government has a very powerful interest
in keeping the price of gold suppressed since
gold is a competitor to its paper....
in fact the federal reserve, including greedscam
have spoken openly though not honestly about the
need to suppress gold prices....larry summers
a paper in the late 1980s on the very subject....
central bankers are smarter than most people -
evil but certainly much smarter....which is why
have been so successful at brainwashing and
talking people out of their money (gold).....it's
that old brer rabbit trick...a whole body of
quack knowledge of economics has been constructed
to sustain the strong delusion.
thus 3-4 banks control 70-90% of all comex gold
shorts - banks which do the government's
gold is not, never will be, never has been merely
Sure uncle Ben is doing great job juggling. that is because they went back to the drawing board back in Jun when an auction failed and there was a selloff in the market(TD mentioned there is gonna be a selloff by pointing to the IWM,and hence I became fixated on ZH cause the guy knows what he is talking about). So who is to say that dealers are not buying at whatever price implented on them?after all they have access to the coffers since they are also banks in the same time.
Forecasts are meaningless without a timeline. Are those of you who are goldbugs buying gold right now, or are you waiting until after it declines along with the market this fall?
We are buying all we can right the f--k now.
Chinese wanted 30's at good rates, Chinese have 30's at good rates.
Damn, I was really looking for something to sink my teeth into, being large long EDV. ZH comments getting as cluttered as Yahoo Finance....
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