• Jim Rogers on Chinese Currency and Trade War: My Thoughts
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    My take on views expressed by Jim Rogers at a BBN interview on Mar. 18 about the recent currency and trade confrontation between the US and China, the Canadian loonie and the U.S. bond market.
  • Armstrong Economics: Entering Phase II of The Debt Crisis
    Chopshop
    03/20/2010 - 04:48
    Phinance's phavorite political prisoner, Martin Armstrong, cautions that "the EU is in dire position", on the precipice of shattering. Since "debts will never be paid and interest expenditures are the greatest transfer of wealth in history ... Western society is falling apart ... If we do not act, civil unrest will explode. The current choice is DEFAULT or HIGHER TAXES & CIVIL UNREST ... Someone has to step forward to save us or we may be doomed. It's time to wake up for this is the future of our children and their children at stake. "
  • China's Fragile Economy, Its Housing Bubble, and What It Means To Us: Download
    Econophile
    03/20/2010 - 00:41
    As promised, here is the complete article, "China's Fragile Economy, Its Housing Bubble, and What It Means To Us," in a downloadable PDF. You can download it, print it out, and read the entire piece at your leisure. The conclusions aren't encouraging, for them or us.

$16 Billion 30 Year Auction Closes At 4.469%

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/12/2009 13:14 -0500



More rotation out of long end paper into near maturities. Soon 100% of US Debt will be maturing every few months. Ugly tail and equities are reacting correspondingly.

  • Yields 4.469% vs. Exp. 4.424%
  • Bid-To-Cover 2.26 vs. Avg. 2.23 (Prev. 2.54)
  • Indirects 44% vs. Avg. 38.3% (Prev. 48.1%)
  • Indirect Bid-To-Cover: 1.24
  • Directs a staggering 12% of Accepted
  • Allotted high 18.01%

 

2s10s is steeper again: next stop: vertical?

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by anynonmous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 13:28
#128703

WTF

White House Aims to Cut Deficit With TARP Cash

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125799009185344567.html?mod=rss_Today%27...

by chet
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 13:37
#128716

Hmmm.  Borrow $700b, give $200b back, and POOF! you've got deficit reduction!

I'm going to try that with my home finances!  Get me Capital One on the phone!

by anynonmous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:03
#128763

now it makes sense

The move could buy the Treasury Department time before it hits the so-called debt ceiling, which limits the amount of money the U.S. can borrow. Already, some members of Congress have said they won't approve an increase in the $12.1 trillion debt cap unless efforts to reduce the deficit are included.

by hack3434
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:50
#128835

LOL didn't they learn from us that shuffling debt around doesn't solve anything. Hmmmm maybe they should get some equity from the White House to pay down some of the debt

by Cognitive Dissonance
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 19:42
#129190

"Already, some members of Congress have said they won't approve an increase in the $12.1 trillion debt cap unless efforts to reduce the deficit are included."

Let's see, when was the last time Congress tried to grow some short hairs? Oh yes, back last year when they said "No" the first time the bailout bill came up for a vote.

Suddenly the market starts taking a dive thanks to some disappearing liquidity thanks to the Fed and presto chango, they passed the bill.

Let's see what happens when the powers that be really want the debt ceiling raised and the boys say no. Hell, it's time for a correction anyway, right?

by Oso
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 13:40
#128722

not a good auction.  yields are increasing - this is where i await the phantom QE. 

 

I contend the only way yields stay down is to transfer from risk assets.  There is far too much global issuance.  See nyt (or wsj?) article on Japanese long rates inching up and administration concern.

by jm
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:03
#128764

You're looking pretty smart today.  Post-auction feels weird, no? 

IG had a meltdown, and then bounced right back in the space of 20 minutes.  10s and up not so much.

People scared of that long end...

 

by Oso
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:35
#128813

ya, post-auction feels really weird.  someone just mentioned this to me, actually: "feels like when you get to the top of a roller-coaster, those few seconds of weightlessness, just before the plunge back down..."

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:48
#128831

A smooth ride at the long end:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jtkg6lr746M

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 19:15
#129168

That's what i want to know, who bought the break of 118?

by Grainium
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 13:52
#128744

Shit must taste good, millions of flies can't all be wrong...

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:26
#128800

Big money pull a million strings
Big money hold the prize
Big money weave a mighty web
Big money draw the flies

-N. Peart

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:04
#128766

riddle me this

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:13
#128786

interesting.. post-auction complete rebound.

by Trading Nymph
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:29
#128805

Verticle 2/10....and heavy heavy short interest in usd...but Bob Pasanti on CNBC said it was so easy to short the usd..lol.

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 14:31
#128808

Help with the definitions / differences.

indirects (44%) + directs (12%) = 56%???

Is the indirect a bid number?

by A Man without Q...
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 15:05
#128868

The Primary dealers have ended up with a bucketful of bonds!  Expect there to be some fun as they move to clear this off their books.

 

I question how meaningful the bid to cover ratio is - given that 67% of the bids are from PDs, but they "only" got one third of their bid filled, isn't it possible that they put in an offer for $15bn at some stupid level, like 10% yield that they knew would not get filled.  Everyone knows the old game of price to miss....

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 16:22
#128980

Bingo. They were still standing when the music stopped and all the chairs were filled. If you look at recent auctions, this is what the PDs have been doing - shilling. Except here, to avoid a failed auction, their silly high bids (maybe not 10%, but more like 4.75%) had to be accepted, dragging the yield up. Rare recently that the indirects and directs walk away with the same stash. This could be ominous in terms of debt service on the mounting Everest of debt.

by poydras
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 15:12
#128878

Who is buying this paper?  Is the next AIG selling some interest rate derivative?

by Rollerball
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 17:42
#129094

Dollar sellers.

by Anonymous
on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 18:13
#129131

I'm curious and perhaps one of you who no way more about the bond market than I can answer this: What happens next year when the first of the 30-year T's issued during the last 'Great Recesssion' mature? Weren't those issued during '80,'81,'82,'83 at yeilds close to 15%? Won't that have any bearing on the bond market in 2010? Will the holders of those bonds be eager to roll them over at a paltry 4.5% yield? Just askin'.

by Anonymous
on Fri, 11/13/2009 - 01:40
#129442

No it wont make a difference because the yield would have changed with the comparable benchmark based on its residual maturity. So people who bought it originally would have made a nice capital gain in it.
In my country it makes a slight difference due to taxation laws but dont know about US so wont comment

by TumblingDice
on Fri, 11/13/2009 - 00:43
#129420

Just about the worst thing one can buy right now...16b of it sold like hot cakes.

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