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16 Year Low In Housing Inventory On Record 1,939,197 Foreclosures
CNBC eagerly quotes the Census bureau today in claiming that housing inventories have reached a 16 year low:
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end
of July was 271,000. This represents a supply of 7.5months at the
current sales rate.
That is certainly one way of looking at the data. Another way is to demonstrate that there is an absolute flood of record, excess inventory waiting to be unleashed on the market:
Maybe CNBC and the Census bureaus are trying just a little too hard to recreate the truth?
h/t fish gone bad
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tick tick tick tick tick
BOOOOM!!!!
1. This is new home inventory, not existing homes.
2. The homebuilders were a bit smarter this time and stopped building.
3. Uncompleted condo buildings are often not listed as new home inventory.
And yes, foreclosures are reaching records. You should post this as a story, check out the graph. You might have to register, but it is free.
http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/174_164/postponing_the_day_of_recko...
http://www.americanbanker.com/media/newspics/082609Defer.jpg
I presume the 'Home repossessed' line has plateaued as a result of banks not wishing to become more deeply involved in the business of property management.
One must wonder what will happen to the mortgage scene once the MBS purchasing portion of QE winds down early next year.
Bullet the blue sky. One trillion! Two trillion!
Also the deterioration of homes sitting unoccupied needs to be taken into account. Surely there are many (I have seen some) properties that have become uninhabitable and more expensive to repair than tear down and rebuild. This needs to be subtracted from inventory.
pd are buying
massive amounts of citi and other zombie banks...
but they in fact
GE: Bringing good things to life.......
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/How-GE-puts-the-government-to-work-for-GE-8154266-54820577.html
Our politicians are nothing more than cheap prostitutes.
I don't know what country your from, but my politicos in US are the highest paid Ho''s...lol
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_GzrzcElky8w/SjM2H1QIN1I/AAAAAAAAC9M/sMPFvJ5xpH...
"MARK IT ZERO,DUDE"
Dude that got me thinkin' you could totally make him look like one of those Greys (space aliens with the big saucer eyes, tiny neck).
spooky.
I used to think deals like this were a layup. An easy flip or rent out with instant positive cash flow. I'm so glad the pesimist in me said it's going lower..... You gotta feel bad (with a smirk on face) for the sap who bought at 1mm
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Cheap?
I meant cheap not in nominal terms but in terms of the ROI.
The banks get billions on the penny.
I had a better term in mind but Tyler censored an earlier comment of mine related to vaseline so i have to be careful.
That is because vaseline suggests men on men. Use K-Y next time. It suggests everyone on everyone.
Hehehe
Holly crap I dident know that! I gave my brother a jar of vaseline and some surgical gloves as a gag gift last christmas!!! Now I feel bad for giving that to him.
Tyler, our guiding spirit, should let us have some fun. The "vaseline" post was one of the best I have seen for a long time. I am serious. Those "two lines" summed up a chapter in world economy. You see Stiglitch said that capitalism has failed in US of A. He took many lines to explian it.Economists would take pages to give numbers and historical data to convey the message.
Lizzy did the same job in two sentences. Brilliant,it was.Thank you. I am planning to rob a bank and retire. That is the only way left it seems.
Our politicians are goddamed expensive prostitutes!
We mustn't insult prostitutes like that...
Sorry! Hat tip to the old pro's!
at least there are SOME honest prostitutes, can't say the same for politicians.
GE: imagination at work on the balance sheet.
Best post today!!! lol + million.
GE, we bring evil to life....
LOL
I'm so sick of hearing people on CNBC pump everything to sound good. When is this economy gonna blow up so these people stop lying? WHENNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
In all fairness, I wouldn't make a blanket statement equating CNBC with 'lying'. The lens of perception is fully in your hands. Your psychology is your responsibility.
Besides, one must be wise enough to acknowledge the difference between 'the truth' and 'the whole truth'.
C'mon. Seriously? It's not like we don't have a pattern of behavior to fall back on. Your attempt at sounding intellectual is laughable.
Good point. The CNBCtards are definitely dumb enough to believe what they're saying.
So help you God.
So help you BOB.
BOB!
...And you call yourself a Sub-Genius! Turn in your frop! (smacks Bob)
CNBC has a conflict of interest. They gain viewers and sponsors when the market goes up not down. It's that simple.
Geee lizzy, timmy told me it was necessary to keep politics out of monetary policy. Yikeeees!!!!
Why is it that people ony buy new houses in the north east?
Isn't that where the Hamptons are?
i'm as bearish as the next guy, but the fact that the people that frequent this site are hoping for an implosion so they can feel vindicated is sickening.
hope is for pussies...we deduce.
+1
+100
I thing what happens to the people that frequent this site is that we are sickened by the cleptocracy and would like it to lose power and REAL solutions to the structural and immediate problems to be implemented.
I'm not hoping for an implosion so I can feel vindicated.
I'm hoping for an implosion so I can cash in on my UUP and VNQ puts.
It's the economics of cognitive blurring, something which occurs when there is a desire for social justice, but it devolves into schadenfreude.
It's becoming a real public health issue, and Dr. Bunsen Honeydew and I are feverishly seeking an increase in budgetary funding to nip it in the bud.
Ha!
Who's hoping for "vindication"? I'm one of the non-suckers that called b.s. on the housing market in 2006 and refused to buy.
I'm waiting to buy a house at a fair price, and I'm waiting to see the idiots who bought at inflated values get wiped out.
If you think that's sickening, then may I suggest the kiddie pool for you?
It's got nothing to do with vindication, I for one would really hope my bearish view is proven wrong. It's just that the way things are going now, it's like taking a drunk up to the penthouse balcony in order to save him from falling from the first floor. The sooner he's off the elevator, the greater his chances of survival once he inevitably does fall.
I guess another hope would be to go slow enough for him to get sober in time, but that requires an enormous skill at balancing everything across the board, instead of some pure deflation vs. pure inflation view of economics. Right now this elevator's moving up awfully fast...
Why do you give a flying fuck what we think? Worry about yourself, Anonymous and we'll worry about ourselves, okay?
There is nothing wrong with that. What is wrong is the bailout for wall street.
And that is how the games is played. Limit supply by suppressing foreclosures to keep prices as high as possible. Trickle out the foreclosures until inflation takes hold and you end up with as little book loss as possible.
To #48968:
"When is the economy gonna blow up...?"
The economy wont blow up. At this point moral hazard is the "New normal." The Govt wont allow firms that should fail, to fail. You can count AIG, C, GE, BAC, definitely GS, MS, etc. as firms that should've gone under last October. For the market to go free fall, something unexpected would have to catch the policy makers by surprise. Since the US Govt is shareholders and now has inside information to all the above, there shouldn't be any surprises.
Therefore, if you are waiting for a sequel to 9-10/08, you will be waiting in vain. I am not a permabull nor am I myopic to the challenges we face. Our elites have taken a page from the Bank of Japan and prolonged the inevitable. Unless we get an unexpected political shock, it will take years, maybe decades to get out this. I'm not predicting uber-deflation, more like consistently weak growth with bouts of cyclical downturns.
In a contrarian play to shock you all: U$ is King.
I agree with your last statement, so long as QE actually is put to a stop. If they do, as a Goldman Sachs chief economist suggested yesterday, add another $2 Trillion of QE at the next sign of distress, then I might have to give up that ghost. I have a feeling the bond market will make itself known.
"Constant change is here to stay."
Nah, they can't keep peddling like this for years like Japan. Karl Denninger explains this in detail, so I would google it.
You'll never understand why Japan had it's downturn until you watch "The Money Masters".
I'm telling you. It's like looking into magic cheat book and then looking at what the bullshit answers liars give.
And that is how the games is played. Limit supply by suppressing foreclosures to keep prices as high as possible. Trickle out the foreclosures until inflation takes hold and you end up with as little book loss as possible. Dump it all at once, cause a landslide, more foreclosures, and lose a bundle.
Them bankers ain't as dumb as they look.
Ah, but there are problems there... big ones:
For one, housing prices are not determined by scarcity -- they are determined by interest rates.
And the other problem of course would be betting on inflation in the midst of the greatest credit conflagration in history.
The bankers *do* have a plan. But bankers, at least most of the ones I know, really suck at macroeconomics.
I concur 100%. That so-called current inventory is just the visible tip of the iceberg. Of course, this can only occur if insolvent banks are "allowed" to remain under capitalized.
That game plan has worked for years for DeBeers. They are sitting on mountains of diamonds that if sold tomorrow would be worthless. So, there they sit. Of course you don't have to pay property tax and repair the roof on diamonds!
True, plus diamonds aren't made of organic material. I'm hearing many stories about recently purchased foreclosures that were full of toxic mold. You can't turn the power off to houses for very long.
Some of them are.
Not to mention you can't collect property tax from diamonds!
THAT is going to really F things up...
Just wait till Fall, Winter, and Spring reports. There will be no one to buys home. The Summer months is where the majority of home sell comes from because kids are out of school. This make it a less stressful event for the entire family.
There will be tons of foreclosures in the coming months. Unemployment checks is running out and more people will be homeless.
I dunno if its so much "hoping for an implosion" as the knowledge that the longer this goes on, the worse the implosion is going to be.
That's it.
The common man can take a hit and get back up with some dignity and rebuild but it looks like even a dignified response will be ruled out by the priviliged few who are pillaging without restraint. The road back to a healthy economy gets longer everyday.
If the psycho-banks had been allowed to fail, the local, sane banks would have filled the gap for Main Street, instead the psycho-banks and their partners in government are literally destroying Main Street.
A fast collapse is much preferable to an extended, corrupt decline, I would call it a green shoot.
Oh come on they DID EXACTLY the same thing they did in the 20's. I mean come on. EXACTLY. You don't think it wasn't intentional do you?
As of 1528 the gang seems not to have figured out that the bid orders have to be directed at the DJT.
CNBS is paid to lie
Hey good call on today's 1 pt move, what's your crystal ball say for tomorrow?
it sure is
The normal ratio of home price to household income is between 2 and 3. If wages remain flat, housing needs to fall at least another 25%. Bernanke only has one way out - inflation.
GE is a bunch of fascist pricks. DIE MOFOs!!!
Off topic...Cash for Clunkers generates 700K new car sales total 30M...70% for Japan..WTF is wrong with this investment??? Can't wait to see what H1N1 shots will cost us!!
It might cost your life. Don't vaccinate on the first round. Self quarantine.
Yes indeed. Besides I would rather be at home that at a short staffed hospital. Avoid hospitals during flu season... like the plague.
monthly down trend line in XHB comes in near 16...21-month moving average is at 15.93
Thursday should be more volatile than usual. This is eighter a bull trap or a melt up. how's that for a prediction.....straddles?
I sampled Multi unit homes sold in 2007 in the LA area today. I found that 31 out of 100 are in some form of default,trustee sale or bank owned. I was looking for a way to identify multi unit homes headed to trustee sale. I am a little surprised to see this so high. All of these had to have 20% down. Better get used to ugly.
New RobotTrader story posted
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/daytrading-darlings
The CNBC link only looks at new home sales. It doesn't consider existing homes, for which inventory is at RECORD HIGHS. I don't know if they're really this stupid, or if they are merely pumping. Either way, I'm glad they're out there spreading misinformation, and I'm glad that some of the people I trade against are acting on it.
Does anyone think Obama will actually end the $8000 tax credit for new home buyers this year?
Doubtful. Isn't there speculation that they're going to double it to $16k next year?
And extend it to second homes in Aspen, The Hamptons & Palm Beach/Island
Once Bernanke buys up all the toxic MBS junk there won't be any more foreclosures. Problem solved!
Lenny Dykstra Is Living In His Car...I wonder if his former homes are on the list??? He also spends time living in hotel lobbies, im sure those are in forclosure!
CNBC - Can Never Be Correct
New home inventory is down because the builders are either bankrupt or can't get financing to start any projects.
Based on this news today the markets should have taken a dump. If new home inventory was up it would actually mean that there's a construction and lending activity recovery.
Never in my adult life have I heard so much bullshit and fantasy stories.
CNBC is a bad version of the scifi channel.
Inventory means nothing.
What are the sales yoy?
Posted chart of new home sales over 50 year time span shows the "recovery" of July would place us in the lowers 98th percentile.
But enough about looking under the hood - pop the champagne corks. Green shoots
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/08/july-new-home-sales-up-96-break-...
economy going down tubes
I suppose we will just end up slowly being squeezed to support this scheme and inflation (in the US) is going to become a problem since the dollar can only take so much punishment.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
If the banks refuse to foreclose, think about all the free-loaders who are living in a house rent free. No rent or mortgage payment, equals a lot of cash for other crap.
Banks are also offering waivers and loan amendments for businesses in lieu of foreclosure..
Face it, the government is backstopping everything related to the banking industry, and the market has figured this out. The government can continue this program till inflation finally kicks and reinflates the asset values, or so the thought goes.
Actually. some of us really are hoping for a complete collapse. There are many reasons for this. Some know that the longer we wait before the inevitable collapse comes, the worse it will be. Some want the guilty to get their comeuppance. Some want to get some REAL bargains in property and other assets. Some desperately want to believe that there is some fairness in the Universe and that good people win and bad people lose. Some are bored and are looking for the excitement of a society in shambles with death, destruction, mayhem and anarchy on every corner. Some see the coming pain and suffering for the likes of Goldman Sachs and the "banksters" as a substitute for peeing on a "merciful and loving god with a mysterious Master Plan" that involves putting five year old children through horribly painful cancer. And some are just a-holes.
Bring it on.
Collapse it make room for something better.
49492: a (wo?)man after my own heart. If we're destined to march through hell (oh, and we are, baby), let's get the caissons rolling. I want to be here to fight through it with my children and grandchildren. It's the very least my generation owes to them.