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$178 Billion In Gross Treasuries On Deck, $118 Billion In Coupons

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The wealth transfer continues: another $118 Billion in coupon issuance is coming up, the bulk of which will be bought up by Primary Dealers, repoed back to the Fed, and the resulting cash used to ramp stocks to new all time highs, generating short-term profits for the banks and another year of record bonuses as future US generations will experience the kinds of riots caused by debt mismanagement as Greece does today.  Another $49 billion Bills will see the same fate. Also, with the first auction of 5 year TIPS since 2009, is someone telling us something? The Obama plan: Dow 36,000 by the mid-terms or else. In other news, the most recent unmanageable debt load per the DTS is $12,808,961,000,000. This is money that will not be repaid, and includes Trust Fund balances that are amortizing ever faster as America's entitlement state dream joins that of Greece.

As a reminder, this is what the US curve looks like. Guess what happens when Oil hits $1,000/bbl and Bernanke, seeing the pitchforks outside the Eccles building, finally raises rates.

 

 

 


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Thu, 04/22/2010 - 17:58 | Link to Comment mikla
mikla's picture

Don't forget that Social Security (and Medicare) are negative NOW.  On paper, Social Security is now drawing funds from the non-existent "lock-box", but in the real world, the US Treasury is issuing bonds each week to cover Social Security checks going out this week.

Cashflow, baby.  It's all about the math, and the cashflow.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

To add, S.S. is pay as we go.  This because GHWB jacked the fund and left an IOU.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:23 | Link to Comment AR15AU
Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Could you elaborate?  I do not use wiki to fact check sources, only to fact check dates.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:54 | Link to Comment AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

 

How do you 'jack' promises to pay? The IOUs predate Bush I.

 

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Reagan toyed with the fund during his presidentcy.  He would pull the fund, and leave an IOU, but would return the money each time.  Then once GHWB stepped in, he did the same 1st step, pulled the fund and layed an IOU, but then never returned the money.  An IOU still sits in the Treasury with GHWB's name on it as collateral.  A Dear John note, in my opinion.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

There was never a "lock box" .  As it was treasury debt it was in effect always a ponzi.  It's not like they went out and invested the money, they spent it before it was even collected.  From day 1 it was a ponzi scheme, only one enforced by the gov holding a gun to every one's head.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:01 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

 As a reminder, this is what the US curve looks like. Guess what happens when Oil hits $1,000/bbl and Bernanke, seeing the pitchforks outside the Eccles building, finally raises rates.

 

When oil hits $1000 a barrel those of us who remain alive will be doing all we can do avoid the roving gangs of raging mad max style hillbillies.

Gold at that point will be nothing other than shit attracting flies. Go long fishing poles and antibiotics, you have a better chance.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"Gold at that point will be nothing other than shit attracting flies."

That is a bold comment to make with no reasoning.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:12 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Reasoning: are you some sort of total badass who thinks biker gangs aren't going to be prying it from your cold fingers?

 

Doubtful

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

How are these biker gangs going to know I have gold and silver?  I missed the part that deems bikers clairvoyant.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:18 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

well where ya gonna be spending it, mr smarty pants? Or you just gonna let it set in the ground til things blow over?

I'm just saying, be prepared, have an exit strategy, don't think a pile of gold is going to save your ass. A way to ensure a steady supply of food and live off the land is numero uno.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Name calling makes me think your arguement is weak before I read it.

I will adress your questions, as they are the most frequent.

Gold will buy land.  Silver will buy food, and oil.

I am prepared.  I do have an exit strategy.  I do not think PMs will "save my ass".  I have a steady supply of food.  I have land to live off of.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:49 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Name calling makes me think your arguement is weak before I read it.

I will adress your questions, as they are the most frequent.

Gold will buy land.  Silver will buy food, and oil.

I am prepared.  I do have an exit strategy.  I do not think PMs will "save my ass".  I have a steady supply of food.  I have land to live off of.

If oil is $1000 a barrel, how the fuck do you think food is going to be produced? I hope you realize that it takes oil byproducts to fertilize the ground and plow and plant it also...if you aren't growing it and finding it yourself, you're doomed. Food will be THE asset class of choice and it is extremely undervalued right now while I see a large pullback as imminent in the PM sector. Checked out the HUI lately on the monthly???

You're talking about silver buying you food that won't be for sale. Are you really prepared or are you just trying to sound sophisticated?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 22:07 | Link to Comment Janice
Janice's picture

Not to belittle your rant; however, sophisticated survivalists realize that only in the modern age has food production come via oil.  True sophisticated survivalists understand that when oil cannot be had, shit will suffice as fertilizer.  It is apparent that you have an abundant supply fertilizer as you appear to be full of shit.  I'll sell my excess food products for silver.  I've been planting fruit trees for years.  Buy gold bitches; silver, seeds, & lead.  : )

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 23:27 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

compost bitchez!

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 08:58 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

I lived in farm country, worked on horse  and dairy farms and cattle ranches the first 19 years of my life. My childhood best friends' family owned a 120 acre apple/pear orchard. I'm speaking from experience.

Have you ever seen fields planted by someone driving a tractor? (using no-till technique)

Have you ever seen the Amish plow and plant a field by manual labor? (plowing with single tooth plow pulled by horse)

The former does in a half hour what it will take the latter 2 weeks to accomplish with unmatched precision. 1 farmer can prepare and plant a 100 acre field in the time it would take 100 skilled amish to plant a 1 acre field. $1000/barrel fuel would wreck the world and mass starvation would ensue.

I've been planting fruit trees for years.

 

That's great, you better have tanks full of fuel and the means to protect that fuel in order to spray them for insecticides (you better have years supply of that too) and harvest your fruit. Your best bet is paying people silver/gold to do the manual labor for you but the results will be extremely lacking compared to having oil to burn.

My original post was talking about a mad max style world and it seems you guys got away from that context. If you weren't mobile you would be a sitting target. It's all hypothetical anyways.

I do own a little silver and gold btw, but the "In gold we trust" thing is getting a little overdone.

Edit...Janice I don't see a logical way to harvest the shit fertilizer and transport it to where it needs to be spread. Sounds pretty labor intensive to me with oil at $1000/bbl. Carrying 5 gallon buckets?

 

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

SILVER TRACKS OIL.  Silver, snitches.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 03:27 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

jd rose a loud mouth with nary a pot to pizz in .

so he makes it up with spit

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 08:52 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

jd rose a loud mouth with nary a pot to pizz in .

so he makes it up with spit

Although you don't know me, you're spot on. I don't own much but I have no debt and total freedom. I also have the means to go about anywhere at any time and live my life with no strings attached (besides the wife). I have no stress in life (beside the wife). This has left me feeling wealthier than I'd ever have imagined possible.

Put your faith in riches and they'll sprout wings and fly away, dumpster. (Your name preceeds you)

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

jdrose1985.  do you read others' posts?  or do you just like to hear yourself?  I know all about organic compost.  I have spent months covered in bat guano. 

A pullback in PMs you see?

I am prepared.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Generally I try to refrain from adding static to such an awesome arena of thought and wit here at ZH. Honestly I tend to overlook your posts as they usually all say the same thing but the recent folly of my ways has become evident since I decided to get into a pissing match with you which wasted your time and mine. 

I could ask you the same question (do you read others' posts?)

I have repeatedly stated that I am bullish on PM's. However, they are not my saviour or my god and I put absolutely zero faith in them, I am just biased towards them in the long run and in the short run a great buying opportunity will present itself. I owned HL CDE SLW TCK UEC et al and made handsome profit since Feb 09, washed, now ready to rinse and repeat.

Good luck to you and sorry that I came across as controversial. Just get tired of hearing how gold is some sort of panacea for all the ills which will follow economic collapse.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I have read ZH religiously for over a year now.  I have not only focused my attention on the articles and contributers, but on the posters as well.  Some on this site blow my mind.  The other day, Hulk and company were discussing how to build log cabins.  I am very well aquanted with posts.  I read them all.  I am also well aquinted with your posts.

Your apology is well received.  I understand, or believe that I am on the right road, how complicated this situation is.  It will not merely take holding wealth in the form of bullion; work ethic, knowledge, and skill will be of the upmost importance. 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Gold,Silver,Guns, Ammo, Booze, arable land.  you will need it all.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 23:23 | Link to Comment Double down
Double down's picture

and Cougars?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:47 | Link to Comment futboller04
futboller04's picture

That's what all the pre65 coinage is for. The gold is get me back on my feet again when things settle down. Those bikers probably won't find my stash on my 200 acres in Nebraska

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

If you live out on the plains, there is not forests to provide wood for heat; so what do you heat with? 

Aplogies if this is truly ignorant, I've always lived in eastern woodlands.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:57 | Link to Comment AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

If you can't make ethanol, there's always dung.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:25 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Understood, but am I correct in stating that it would be much more labor instensive and time consuming?

My doomstead will have streams/srpings and plenty of timber.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:47 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Start planting trees, asap.

Lots of em.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Hulkster, I honestly wouldn't live where there aren't trees and water on my property.  North/Central Maine is the place to be, largest uninhabited area in the Lower 48, cheap as hell land and existing farms.  Tons of lumber and 6 hours from any city, and the people are great and are already very independent.  Anyway, I'm gonna stop now, can't be giving up my secret plans too much.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

 dlt

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Dude, you gave em up twice!

I misread your prior post...

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's picture

Because they will have a gold and silver sensor on their bikes as the roam the countryside looking to pillage you and spend it on........oh wait there isn't anything to spend it on.  Come to think of it, where are they going to get gas?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The chance of finding which house has gold is like finding a gold thread in a haystack.  Good luck roaming biker gangs!  I bet their profit margin is so low, that if we do go into a Mad Max scenerio, those hunting people for PMs will only last a week until they give up, and go to work on a farm.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:14 | Link to Comment kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

In Central Illinois, roving biker gangs would be welcomed as target practice, and a crunchy treat for the hogs.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:47 | Link to Comment hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

Anti-pork rinds.  Mmmmmm.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:29 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

In Central Illinois

 

how far is that from Chitown?

Central Illinois would be overrun about 3 days after the supply chain failed, tops

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Hog fed hogs, I like the sound of that!

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 03:31 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

these biker dudes will be prying (if they are in the area) every thing from your fingers and mouth ,

poor excuse not to have gold as a back up.. the only other reason could be a yapper in .  trying to sound mucho  

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:27 | Link to Comment AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

Gold at that point will be a medium of exchange...  if you have antibiotics and fishing poles and want a firearm, you may need an intermediary to barter if the person with all the firearms doesn't want your expired drugs and glorified sticks.  Get a clue. 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:34 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

if you have antibiotics and fishing poles and want a firearm, you may need an intermediary to barter if the person with all the firearms doesn't want your expired drugs and glorified sticks.  Get a clue.

 

So you're going to approach somebody with a firearm with a gold coin in your hand in the hopes they dont point the gun at you and tell you to hand it over?

Get a clue.

 

 

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 01:24 | Link to Comment aaronvelasquez
aaronvelasquez's picture

If I were a roving biker gangmember, I would stake out the marketplace and watch who was paying with gold and silver and follow them home. . .

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 03:23 | Link to Comment dumpster
dumpster's picture

and those paying with cash .. the bikers will get ya.

any dumb cluck who takes coin to the market place .. and showing it around for stuff is a dufus .

i bet he takes it to a secure location . set up...  sells the coin for cash then lazys on down to the market place on his harley,, looking hairy

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:04 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Confused. PDs hand over CASH to buy Treasuries, then repo to Fed for CASH to then invest in stocks. 

Why not skip a step and just buy stocks instead of Treasuries?

Now, I'm with you if the steps that really occur look like this: PDs gather together whatever cash they can find from hapless investors who think Treasuries are safe.  They then PROMISE to pay the rest someday, but 100% of the bonds etc. are issued (so the auction never fails). The bonds etc. that are not paid for are repoed back, plus the ones paid for (as to which hapless investor expects only the coupons to be paid), and all of the resulting CASH is deployed as mentioned. 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

... or unless they can buy low and sell high to the Fed.   Which would be the same as the Fed just giving cash to the PD's...  but you're right... I'm not sure I understand the order of operations either.

 

 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Because PDs are needed for the successful execution of every auction. Without them we may very well have a failed one. This way they keep rates low (steep yield curve especially when buying the short end) and recycle the cash to buy stocks.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:37 | Link to Comment boricuadigm-shift
boricuadigm-shift's picture

It's called Debt Monetization. 

     1) The FED can't buy the Treasuries they are issuing.

     2) They need the free market to determine the right interest rate (ujum). 

     3) The banking laundry cartel buys Ts

     4) Repo them back to the FED and then hide it in their books. 

     5) The sheeple don't notice and keep thinking is the Chineese who just ran their first trade deficit in years.

 

Can someone correct me?

 

Is it that simple?  Or am I wrong?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:56 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The Treasury are the ones issuing the bonds.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Duuude
Duuude's picture

dup

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Duuude
Duuude's picture

The scam is that the Fed "loans" "money" to the PD's cheap and they buy the bonds from the Treasury with that "money".

 

Scam of all scams.

 

Willie Hutton..."I rob Banks 'cause that's where tha money is."

 

We are tha ' "Bank".

 

 

 

 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 22:03 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Now that's more like it. PDs are spending some of those "reserves," which are funny money that has been put up just long enough for everyone to forget it was born to an Epson mother and Bernanke father.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:08 | Link to Comment ratava
ratava's picture

quit deflating us motherfuckers!

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:08 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Being a natural born hillbilly and all ... don't judge us harshly cause’n we ain't got no shoes.  It'll be safer in the hills and hollars than the canyons of any big city

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Unless of course you happen to be hanging out somewhere in the vicinity of Arkansas.

Is that the sound of dueling banjos?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:15 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

You just love making my blood pressure rise. My response is fuck it. Let the fed do as they please. I want them to take 70% out of my paycheck everyweek. As for as my grand kids, Fuckem. I'm not having kids. Please Ben, I want to see massive deficits. I put my faith in you Ben. You are my hero. How's that Tyler. I'm done.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

The only reason I would entertain having children is for farm labor and an extra set of eyes.  Still not sure if that is worth the whining.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Thats what switches and duct tape are for.

No need to suffer whining...

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They will never raise rates.  It will all be said and done by the time they acknowledge maybe they should raise rates.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Thunder44
Thunder44's picture

Yeah, I agree at least nothing too substantial for awhile the deflationary pressure must have been tremendous with this credit purge.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:12 | Link to Comment BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

hmmm...looks like a teenager with 30 credit cards and a small car loan.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

...bought up by Primary Dealers, repoed back to the Fed, and the resulting cash used to ramp stocks to new all time highs, generating short-term profits for the banks and another year of record bonuses...

Gee, one could almost make a case that this is a bigger and more serious problem than the three year old news that Goldman ripped out some German bank's eyeballs.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

+1

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Duuude
Duuude's picture

Bingo. Furthermore, if the PD's pay say .1% to the Fed and get 2% on Treasuries as an example their return is 1900%. Also, someone (TD?) correct me, I believe they can leverage as well.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Yeah that .1% or whatever is what they borrow at, that is leverage.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's picture

You people don't get it, we are SPENDING OUR WAY TO PROSPERITY!!!

I do think the riots are coming.  Seriously, why extend unemployment becaues there isn't any work, I wonder how these fuckers sleep at night I really do.

Courtsey of your government.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:33 | Link to Comment AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

Hey Jim, what do you think of AMZN?  I went all in on Monday given the hot news from AAPL and EBAY but we got a little pull back today. Mortgage the house and back the truck up on this one?

 

 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

"as future US generations will experience the kinds of riots caused by debt mismanagement as Greece does today."

I am pretty sure I'll be seeing the riots in my lifetime.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:30 | Link to Comment TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

wife was in the airport yesterday, actually two of them and in various security lines. while standing there the entire herd was grumbling about "this administration... and these government idiots..., and where does the debt end..., yadda, yadda."

the powers that be may be thinking that higher equity prices are soothing the savage beasts but they are genuinely mistaken.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:58 | Link to Comment ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

TwoJacks, I am witnessing the same thing in my business.  Over the years it has been a faux pas to speak of political topics.  Daily my clients now speak of this administration, the debt and the political idiots.  Though out my career I have never heard so many clients speak of politics and the government.  You are correct those in Washington are mistaken.  Every day I get the feeling that I am going to open my browser, or the phone will blow up with news of the collapse.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

The revolution will not be televised.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 22:22 | Link to Comment Janice
Janice's picture

You know, I already heard that.  It seems that recently, there was a group protesting at the once White House and all reporters were forced away.  That's all I remember though.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:30 | Link to Comment TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

I would've bet dollars to donuts as recently as last week that there was a concerted effort to keep asset prices elevated to keep the herd in check and that the herd was buying it, I mean the story not the rally.  Now, after hearing the wife's report yesterday, I've changed my thinking.  They're not even buying the Goldman news as evidence that justice will be served.  Too many people are aware now of the tentacles of the squid and its reaches into Washington.

 

I think the health care reform was the straw that broke the herd's back. Obama said in a radio interview in 2007 that our constitution was about negative rights, i.e. - do what you want but don't infringe on the rights of others, but that the constitution says nothing about what the federal government should do for its people, and he called them positive rights.  He wanted to see that changed and the health care reform is the change that he spoke about.  I think the herd likes their negative rights and trust that Jefferson and Adams knew what they were doing when they wrote those words.

 

We're coming unglued, and as you say, what used to be off-topic or forbidden conversation in certain situations is now front and center discussion 24/7.  Flipping the switch on the internet is the last line of defense for this administration and I wouldn't put it past them to use it.  Government sanctioned news outlets will be your sole source of news aside from word of mouth.

 

Not to sound paranoid, but how do they know it's coming to a theatre near me?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

I don't know, its funny you say  this b/c I am raging in the other direction.  I feel like people are in a catatonic daze, everything is fine.  Yeah, I hear some bitching about taxes and healthcare, but nothing much.  Seem like the same sheeple as always.

God knows they are sick of my rants. But even after I ask them if they notice the slashed school budget, the laid off police, the closed hospitals and on and on they still don't get it.

I hope you are right, people need to wake the fuck up.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:15 | Link to Comment nedwardkelly
nedwardkelly's picture

Dollars to donuts?

I was at dunkin donuts the other day. One donut cost $0.95.

Not such a confidence inspiring wager anymore.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 07:10 | Link to Comment TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

I guess it's been a long time since I had a donut.  I'll have to change the wager

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Wait until 100,000 + pinkslipped schoolteachers get laid off next month. Schools go to a 4 day week. Latchkey teen kids tear the house to shreds every Friday they are off. And the K-6 kiddies need a sitter. That should ramp up some grumbling......and kick off lots of hugs for incumbents in November.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

300,000 by June.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 22:48 | Link to Comment whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

sorry but the herd does not look like they are not gorging on equities

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:55 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Off Topic: In the meantime the Euro is making a move through support, 1.3267. 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 18:57 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

So while we're waiting for this doomsday scenario, why don't you buy equities? I hear this argument from others and I tell them to buy equities. The response? When the Dow's that much higher, your money is worth less. To which I reply: True, but you'll have a shitload more of it. Isn't that better than having less worthless money?

Remember the days of "As goes GM so goes the USA"? I'm pretty certain now that it should be "As goes Apple, so goes the USA". As long as people keep buying gadgets (AAPL is now the second largest market cap on the S&P) it will continue to soar, bringing these markets right along for the ride.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

You have some play money to mess around with, sure, have some fun.  But putting the majority  of your nest egg into equities is beyond reckless.  Good luck timing the top before the bottom falls out.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:17 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I've done so well this year that a 10% pull back would be a very minute dent. And that's exactly where I will get out. However with AAPL still cheap on a p/e level at its current price, it would take the end of the world to pry that out of my hands.

IF the bottom falls out, as I've heard since the market moved off the lows last year, I will be long gone out of equities. Probably pop over to the short side if my above scenario plays out.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Reminds me of the $5.00 a roll players at the craps tables. Always the loudest screamers when they nail a point. All Casinos love them.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Nothing like taking credit for completely random outcomes.

 

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Yeah I hear ya stud, but once we broke through 11k, I got the F out.

Now I need to ask you a question; your comments, they are performance art, right?  Or are you a dbag trader?  And if you are a dbag trader, were you trading back during the .com boom?  B/c I remember some of my pals getting margin calls after saying over and over, its not topped yet, keep going, blah blah blah.  "Oh, its just a dip, snap em up cheap." and then "Real esate is where its at man, wanna get in on some preconstruction with me?"

Feel free to ride the herd, but don't think you are so much smarter then everyone else in the herd or that you won't get caught in the stampede.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:09 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

TD, where are you? We've got a move in EUR bro! It's the end of the beginning!!!

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:21 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

In sort of a free fall. Is something out of the ordinary going on? Anyone?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 19:55 | Link to Comment Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Whoa, if you think its "sorta" in a freefall, it must have reached parity with the dollar.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:57 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

So basically this this not going to blow up anytime soon. Is that correct?

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 20:58 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yep. You got it.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 04:18 | Link to Comment godfader
godfader's picture

The entire western world will blow up first. Japan, UK etc. Heck even Germany will blow up before the US considering they happily are bailing out all the garbage countries.

The US will goto hell last and this could be a decade or two away.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

Ugh, such dire predictions for the future of our once truly great nation! Let me offer you a rosier outlook if I may.

Within two years, the US government will legalize marijuana and cocaine. They will impose an excise tax of $100/oz for pot and $50/gram for cocaine. This alone will start improving our national balance sheet -- but I am not done yet.

The CFTC will approve trading in marijuana futures (100 32-lb bales per contract), in opium poppy futures (part of the agri complex) and in refined cocaine (1 kilo/contract). These will also be taxed to the hilt.

The government will license distributors as well as authorized retailers and charge a hefty annual fee for the license.

Life is good -- no more hand-rolling your doobies, no worring about cops busting into your bedroom and searching through your nightstand drawer -- and the national debt will be repaid in, say five or six years.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:19 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Ok. Im going to buy me some stock in Porn and Bong companies. I hear Tom Byron Productions make some quality movies. Jolly Joint makes a mean Bong. This financial advice is on the house.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:19 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

Nice sentance

"The wealth transfer continues: another $118 Billion in coupon issuance is coming up, the bulk of which will be bought up by Primary Dealers, repoed back to the Fed, and the resulting cash used to ramp stocks to new all time highs, generating short-term profits for the banks and another year of record bonuses as future US generations will experience the kinds of riots caused by debt mismanagement as Greece does today"

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

After tax income will become more and more precious. Working people will have to spend less, which, will further damage our economy, and the economy of those we import from. Government, union, and non-employed wards of the state will continue to get their free money, thus, "spreading" the wealth around. But they'll be paying the VAT too.

The rich will rise above it all, as they do. The poor will make do with their free money and free services. The middle class will be crushed, and, would be well advised to work less, pay less taxes, buy less stuff, and, if possible, join the underground economy.

Probably best to convert a chunk of any after-tax earnings into silver and gold. Physical.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 21:53 | Link to Comment twotraps
twotraps's picture

Did anyone read Galbraiths article in The Nation about Deficits?  That its either public or private money encouraging the economy?  Public debt does not have to be paid back but private debt to banks does?  Honestly, the govt bal sheet is sick but in reality will it ever get paid...will it matter.  I know I know there could be inflation, yeah there could be a lot of shit....and I think tinkering with Mother Nature (The Market) will lead to bad things but the question is will govt debt every actually get paid or is it some giant distraction.

Thu, 04/22/2010 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I think the next calculation needs to be:

If Obama/Bernanke/Geithner plans on a Dow of 36,000 by year end, exactly how much debt will need to be monetized to achieve this feat of magical levitation.

And, why stop at 36,000?

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