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"The 18 Year Cycle" - S&P Adjusted For Business Revenues Means The 666 Lows Are Just The First Stop
Sean Corrigan's weekly "Material Evidence" is always a must read. In his latest edition, the uber-eloquent Brit puts simplistically worded Fed bashing to shame with an anti-Fed manifesto masterpiece that is off the charts on the Flesch-Kincaid reading level. While we will post the full piece shortly, we wanted to bring attention to one particular chart which has not received any prominence in the past, namely the S&P adjusted for business revenues, which appears to have an 18 year periodicity, and whose mean reversion implies that we are only half way through the correction phase. In other words when all is said and done, when the Fed's POMO gun is finally out of bullets, Albert Edwards' and Nic Lenoir's S&P targets of ~400 will be spot on.
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Would that be the effin dip to buy, or what?
Nop, that would be followed by a 10 to 15 years sideways movement of the stock market.
And with the goverment debt levels, it might even be a 10 to 15 years downward movement.
Can't we just print a new stock market?
555 is the next bottom. y'know how these pricks like numerology
Ben da Bernank and lil' Timmy think so, cause if the currency is devalued by 1/2 the number doubles.
Unfortunately, that means wages for J6P will remain exactly the same, while cost of living doubles....
If I cut my pizza into 16 pieces instead of 8, I have twice as much pizza, right?
now yer talkin'.........
Yogi Berra would prefer 4 since he could never eat 8 pieces.
so well said, are you from Wisconsin or sumpin'
...at which time the Amero will be given birth. Because at some point the Greenspans, Pausons, Bernanks of the world will finally be given the boot and the US will not have to pay somebody to print our own money.
Cheesy, CNBS has a futures service that shows the future of the Dow at -169 (same number as Friday's Dow loss).
EDIT: 1:40 PM ET
...
Anyone, I have been trying to find live gold prices today, but with no luck. I do know it is too early for gold to be trading in Tokyo and Australia. Is there any live gold pricing that is available during the weekend? Maybe in the Middle East??? Not just the Friday close like kitco.com, 24hgold.com, etc.
Thanks!
GOLD MARKET WILL OPEN 6 PM EST..
Thanks ZEITGEIST!
Cheesy, CNBS has a futures service that shows the future of the Dow at -169 (same number as Friday's Dow loss).
Thanks, Do, at a glance I thought that was getting Friday's number. If there is a large correction it will be interesting to see if PM's follow it down as people percieve this as a deflationary signal or if they skyrocket up right away.
Futures don't open for a few more hours. That's the close on Friday's futures.
glad your right on top of this one, harry.
I stand corrected, thank you.
CNBS...
Here's the Forex hours by time zone. It's set to Pacific time. Sydney opens at one and the bigger volumes start at 3p with Asia joining in. You can watch the crash with these simple live chart (1st link). The permabulls think this is just a correction and will be the last ones to say "this won't stop going down". That's when it will stop going down. Egypt is the only Arab quasi-ally/trading partner with Israel so yes this mess in Egypt is of massive importance to investors. There's a ton of boiled frogs in this market and the fire just got set to high. Sell at market tomorrow as these are usually 3 day knife down affairs if resolution is in sight. If more countries join in it will be worse and quite ugly...just as the individual investor was beginning to tiptoe back into equities.
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/detach.aspx?idparell=5255
http://forex.timezoneconverter.com/index.cgi?timezone=America/Los_Angele...
Thank you as well onarga! Your picture sure is familiar looking...
Australia is at 1341.70
The Benner cycle is relevant as well. Maybe Tyler could post the graph, as i have lost mine along with the drive it was on. :(
Best be time to go to the dollar! You can eat 'em! Yuck yuck!
Quote from Jack Lalanne
"if it tastes good, spit it out."
I just read that in the weekend version of the Financial Times today...
Also from Jack Lalanne "if man made it, don't eat it"...
If man made it, don't use it as money
"I can't die," LaLanne would say. "It would ruin my image."
Mr Hendrix , i share your ultimate belief in precious metals and disdain of the dollar , but the short to medium term future will see the dollar reign supreme as King of the Fiats and cash will outperform risk. I personally dont think gold will sell off much priced in dollars before it continues towards 2k , but do not write the dollar off yet.
All to do with generational time scales.. people, their families and memories of poverty and money
Gotta love the vertical dot-bomb...revenues? we don' need no steenkin' revenues!
...but..but.. does this charting track assume the financials will someday mark to market ??
.
Another piece of evidence confirming the Mayan doomsday is right on schedule.
Look forward to seeing the rest of the piece by Sean Corrigan.
Interesting and quite possible...the masses seem to think the worst is over and inflation is a foregone conclusion...when everyone is piled in one way many times there is money to be made going the other way.
Yep....i see you notice sentiment too. It is erie how something always comes out of the blue and is unpredictable but it results in an unanticipated change at sentiment extremes. It is such a regular occurence you would think people might start predicting it, even if the specific catalyst for reversal cant be seen in advance.
Anyone stop and think about how this lines up with "The Fourth Turning" ? Nearly perfectly.
Yep. I've been watching. Fascinating and sorta scary all at the same time. Didn't the French face a situation very similar to ours in 1789? Didn't the French invent the guillotine?
sunny
Tru Dat Captain!
not to mention Yellowstone supervolcano just became more active 2 days ago!!
lol. the ultimate black swan.. they didn't see that coming..
some people do, in great detail - http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=9728
lots of these get posted here too
Ben's gonna buy that F'ing dip. Should work out well.
Ben loved spending time in Davos almost as much as he enjoyed his treehouse. The only difference was he did not have his printer in Switzerland. He hoped that would be fixed next year with his new iprinter app. He wanted to be able to print money wherever he went.
He was talking a stroll through the town square when his telephone rang. It was Timmah.
"Timmah!" Said Timmah.
"Yes I am quite well aware of the situation in Africa. Let Barry deal with it. In the meantime, I want you to buy Ford double fisted, and keep Netflix and Apple up. Lord knows how pissed Llyod will be if Hedge Funds liquidate their positions."
"Timmah?" Asked Timmah.
"Strong dollar, weak dollar, it is all the same. We are in this race until the end, and we want corporations to inherit the world. We may sacrifice the Dollar at the alter of the Temple soon."
This excited Timmah. "Timmah!"
"That's right, it is almost time. We sold off enough gold in January to flush the weak hands out. And in case you are wondering, I will step down 15 minutes after the dollar collapses."
"Timmah?"
Bernanke didn't answer him. He knew he had promised Timmah Fed Chair, but he had also promised Krugman Fed Chair. As Jamie wanted Treasury Sec, it looked like Timmah would be working for Citi with Orzog.
"We will discuss your future later. In the meantime, get my printer warmed up. Daddy is going to be home soon, and I want to cuddle."
"Heh heh...Timmah." Timmah chuckled.
Bernanke hung up the phone and Timmah got busy on his 1987 8 bit Nintendo setting up his Futures Market. He sucked on hos beer helmet, full of Jolt, and wondered, 'Maybe this was the week he would beat the last level of his PPT video game, called "Own the World's Paper". Boy was he excited!
rofl
Funny as shit!
BTFD parrots , and Team Wanger , will do well to heed this chart. We will break down through those March 09 lows again. Many have stuck by this forecast regardless of Bernanks printer - he is a speed bump. I dont care how much paper he can conjure - theres an inevitability about where asset prices are heading. Market forces are wonderful things.
-for those that like cycles , google Kondratiev Wave
god help us. kill the banks Now!!!.....
38.2% retrace of the move from 666 to 1300 is 1058.
That's the first stop.
a 180?
It's going to take something major to pull this market back to 1050 level again. I can't see it happening, at least in the next couple of years. We may see 1400 yet this year.
Maybe a war in Mideast? But agree in general major trend is still up - preserve status quo above all else....
You are the energizer bunny of willful ignorance.
Ya it needs something really big. Like if someone were to invent a wall of denial destruction hammer. That would probably do it.
LOL good one
There is likely to be a.pullback but i cant see 1050 if gdp keeps chugging along above 3 percent. There are only two numbers that count now, gdp and core inflation. It is a race.
If the urinal cake market crashes, be afraid, Harry. Be very afraid.
1040 was providing support through the latter part of 2010,
DavidC
1218 on the /es is going to be major leage resistance. i'm keeping my short on for the now.
1221 on the /es is a 61.8% retrace from the November low. Seems very possible.
1200 on the /es is a 38.2% retrace from the September low, and lines up exactly with a 78.6% retrace from the November low. Also seems very possible.
one look at the walmart, goog, msft, et al personal insider billionaire assets tells me all I need to know. Those maggots suck out 1/3 to 1/2 of the value of any public company.
The first dip will come in the end of 2011-Q1 2012 and will be around 700-800. Second- September-dec 2012, about . Third and last- sept-dec 2013. However, none of these will be below 600. This crisis is unfolding slower and with less amplitude then previous one in 1929.
The picture gives a feeling that there will be one dip and in the late 2014. That is too late. By end of 2014, there will be already certain recovery in S&P , may be up back to 700-800, or even 900.
Labdien and paldies!
Nav par ko, j?s?k ?sin?t visa 2011. gada garum? ar mazu kupr?ti uz augšu maij?-j?nij?.
Hi, Ivars, sorry, I don't speak the language, but I have a nice, fat vardnica on the shelf behind me...was in Riga four times...babe central.
Cycle to me means a full cycle. 18 years is a half cycle, 36 year full cycle. Looked at that way the chart is astounding. Even if the first cycle top was picked at random because it was a top the chance of hitting the following bottom and top to the week it seems is beyond belief. So good I wonder if some fat fingers didn't do the calc on the BRM/SP ratio.
Just on an eyeball basis, that chart looks an awful lot like the Dow/Gold Ratio Chart, which will likely go to 1 or 2 on pretty much the same cycle.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Gold-vs-SPX.png
Compare with Dax In Gold:
http://www.realterm.de/DAXinGold.php
Translation:
http://tinyurl.com/daxingoldenglish
The commodity bulls cited the same 18 year cycle in May 2008. Then the GSCI took a quick 75% dive. Cycles are completely workless for trading IMO. You never know if "this time is different".
Those who follow price and buy breakouts and short breakdowns will more often than not be on the right side of the markets. Without cycle voodoo.
If you've followed that strategy you're either very lucky or very poor as the majority of chart "breakouts" and "breakdowns" fail.
Like some sort of cosmic joke,666 - sign of the beast,how appropriate.
devil is in the details.
The fed woke up when it's number was triggered.
Oh please, oh please... Test 666...Test 666.
I suspect we'll be testing Cthulu soon...
According to Strauss and Howe there are four phases in a human life that each generation experiences at different times. Boomers experience the cycle in phase with their life... born in a "High" (Spring), young adults in an "Awakening" (Summer), midlife adults in the "unraveling" (Fall), and elderly in the "crisis" (Winter). Within each of these, I propose there are similar (fractal), but perhaps less intense phases... which could be reflective of the 18 year cycle low periodicity, occurring 4 times in an average human life. This would be indicative of mini-seasons of sorts within the larger Strauss and Howe pattern. With the children of the great depression rapidly dwindling in numbers (purging our collective living memory of the “Crisis” period) and baby boomers flooding into retirement, the next great crisis is upon us in phase with the larger Saecular cycle . Further, if you extrapolate this fractal orientation to the next larger degree of 4 Saeculums, we are in our fourth Saecular cycle from the 1st wave of Colonial settlers. Bottom line, if cycles and phases of human life are like other waves of nature where amplitude (severity, or displacement) increases with phase alignment, then this period presents the possibility of a serious challenge to our nation and perhaps the world. This also aligns with other predicative theories such as Elliott wave, Kondratieff, etc. Something to consider.
My state funded education ingrained into me along with the masses that the stock market crashed in 1929, however there was a big bounce back up and it did not bottom out until 1932. I going to ride the commodity bub little longer until we some real fireworks again think like sept 2008.
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USDJIND1920.gif
crappy historical chart but you get the picture.
Just a chart, with a lot of random lines. I wouldn't give it any credence at all.
Reasons why..
...in the first cycle, the resistance downtrend line isn't drawn from the top, but from a random point.
..Also, there is no decending channel line drawn on the 1st cycle but there is on the 2nd, as it didn't follow a descending channel on the 1st cycle.
All stuff and nonsense, like Elliott Wave etc.
another fellow Elliott fan, welcome... want some spare charts, my 2010 were absolutely useless!
Cut yer worms in half and catch twice as many fish too.
How do you reconcile for all of the manipulation and liquidity pumping? I just don't think we are comparing apples to apples, here.
High levels of inflation are happening all around us. That will naturally raise the values of equities. Even if the actual purchasing power isn't keeping up.
The gold/S&P ratio seems like the only rational way to even start to determine where equities may be heading. I am much more interested in seeing gold parity with the Dow to see when reality may be taking hold.
Is there anyone who thinks QE2 is the final bullet left in the Fed's chamber? I think they aren't even at half-time. Bernanke is on record claiming he is comfortable with a Fed balance sheet of $9T.
Although, I am being bias here. I bought a lot of VXX calls early last week and closed them all out on Friday, just before the close. I have grown too paranoid and will sit back for just a little while to see if the Fed(and its cronies) goes in for the kick save on Monday.
For some reason this feels like Dubai II, to me. Something bigger may be on the horizon, though.
OT: I bought 200 30 VXX Jan28 calls for 8 cent avg on the open Friday. Within 20 minutes, I sold them for 21 cents. Live and learn(they closed out at almost $3 each).
Brothers, I know some of you are not believers. It may be time for you to find the Lord or face an eternity burning in the fires of hell.
Palin 2012!
I am a believer. I believe man invented the Big Angry Guy in the Sky.
So coffee breaks over- back on your heads.
PS. Palin certainly would make a good puppet for the cabal.
Can't wait to hear the first SOTU in tongues!
Is this guy serious? TD I know i need to be nicer to.the angry doomster unhappy about his position in life, but asking me to tolerate a fundie is almost more than I can bear. I will try though. Hey dude nice to meet you welcome to zero hedge.
Totally Ridiculous Obviously Lying Loser
Yeah that's where I get confused - so god loves all men and forgives them for their sins but if they don't give a bunch of cash to the church and repent they go to hell right?
so judging by the chart it's 'short' for 5 years and 8 months.... easy play, set the cash machine on 'collect', globe-trotting Golf anyone? ...ezy game this investing lark innit?
PS. thanks for the chart ZH, like the 18 Yr Cycle, mucho informo ;)
Remember that in the hold of every sunken ship, one will ALWAYS find a chart. The bears got their serious crash 4 years ago just like 1987.
it took 11 years to repeat with the LTCM fiasco and then later in 2001 to create crash-like conditions. The most important reason for the global elite to trash equities now is to scupper food inflation. To do that, they need to torpedo the global economy. Paul Volcker did it to the oil market (Arabs) in 1980 by tightening reserve requirements and now the Barnanke will do it in order to stave off civil disorder in the hearltland.
The headlines mean nothing - it is the policy behind the headlines that counts.
Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!
Well, not yet... but doesn't hurt to practice.
Equities are being magically levitated. It will make a thud.
Are you doing that math thing again? 666 is now a thing of the past. With the Feds new and improved software, All math is extinct. Math and charts are so 80s
Harry...dude...you really need to learn some market history. All you need to do is look at the Depression and post-1990 Japan. Big crashes, big flashy rebounds, and then longer drawn out declines with new lows.
"S&P adjusted for business revenues"
Huh? I hope you'll provide more detail on this.
S&P at 400 sure has me intrigued.
The power elite will never let the S&P go below 900 max. They will print and buy every single stock on the market if they have too.
Ponzi, ponzi, ponzi, oink, oink, oink.
? They already did that
Off Topic. What is a derogatory slang term for "Retail Investor"? Thanks,
Isnt retail investor bad enough?
Good point...LOL!!! But I was hoping to find something a little more colorful.
"Momo" is the moniker of choice.
Richard russel the dean of newsletter writers said about ten years ago that it was going to be an epic battle of inflation versus deflation. It is inflate or die, he said. We must have the s and p at least at 1200 in five years, even if bread is 6 bucks a loaf. We must avoid japans fate because we have no savings and we are not quite as harmonious. I ve got some nice goldflex body armor. You cant even see it under my.shirt unless you look really hard, but it gets hot as hell in the summer and i dont want to have to wear it every day.
Richard russel the dean of newsletter writers said about ten years ago that it was going to be an epic battle of inflation versus deflation. It is inflate or die, he said. We must have the s and p at least at 1200 in five years. even if bread is 6 bucks a loaf.
Okay, I'll bite on that delicious bait you're trolling:
So you're saying that Richard Russell said we needed to go lower on the S&P?
10 years ago, the S&P was @ 1300. It was 1500 in 2000 (a year prior).
Head, shoulder, knees & toes...knees & toes.
Just hanging about for the 6666 day simple moving average....
Japan and 1929 is how it'll be, 2016 is the bottom.
Hyper-Deflation Bitchez
I can't buy the F-n dip if they wont let it dip.
By cutting the Pizza in an infinite number of pieces you never run out