"The 18 Year Cycle" - S&P Adjusted For Business Revenues Means The 666 Lows Are Just The First Stop

Tyler Durden's picture

Sean Corrigan's weekly "Material Evidence" is always a must read. In his latest edition, the uber-eloquent Brit puts simplistically worded Fed bashing to shame with an anti-Fed manifesto masterpiece that is off the charts on the Flesch-Kincaid reading level.  While we will post the full piece shortly, we wanted to bring attention to one particular chart which has not received any prominence in the past, namely the S&P adjusted for business revenues, which appears to have an 18 year periodicity, and whose mean reversion implies that we are only half way through the correction phase. In other words when all is said and done, when the Fed's POMO gun is finally out of bullets, Albert Edwards' and Nic Lenoir's S&P targets of ~400 will be spot on.

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Cheesy Bastard's picture

Would that be the effin dip to buy, or what?

Sudden Debt's picture

Nop, that would be followed by a 10 to 15 years sideways movement of the stock market.

And with the goverment debt levels, it might even be a 10 to 15 years downward movement.

Cheesy Bastard's picture

Can't we just print a new stock market?

66Sexy's picture

555 is the next bottom. y'know how these pricks like numerology

Quixotic_Not's picture

Can't we just print a new stock market?

Ben da Bernank and lil' Timmy think so, cause if the currency is devalued by 1/2 the number doubles.

Unfortunately, that means wages for J6P will remain exactly the same, while cost of living doubles....

Cheesy Bastard's picture

If I cut my pizza into 16 pieces instead of 8, I have twice as much pizza, right?

Hollow_Point's picture

Yogi Berra would prefer 4 since he could never eat 8 pieces.

steveo's picture

so well said, are you from Wisconsin or sumpin'

The Count's picture

...at which time the Amero will be given birth. Because at some point the Greenspans, Pausons, Bernanks of the world will finally be given the boot and the US will not have to pay somebody to print our own money.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Cheesy, CNBS has a futures service that shows the future of the Dow at -169 (same number as Friday's Dow loss). 

EDIT: 1:40 PM ET


Anyone, I have been trying to find live gold prices today, but with no luck.  I do know it is too early for gold to be trading in Tokyo and Australia.  Is there any live gold pricing that is available during the weekend?  Maybe in the Middle East???  Not just the Friday close like kitco.com, 24hgold.com, etc.


ZEITGEIST's picture


Cheesy Bastard's picture

Cheesy, CNBS has a futures service that shows the future of the Dow at -169 (same number as Friday's Dow loss).

Thanks, Do, at a glance I thought that was getting Friday's number.  If there is a large correction it will be interesting to see if PM's follow it down as people percieve this as a deflationary signal or if they skyrocket up right away.

HarryWanger's picture

Futures don't open for a few more hours. That's the close on Friday's futures. 

velobabe's picture

glad your right on top of this one, harry.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I stand corrected, thank you.


onarga74's picture

Here's the Forex hours by time zone.  It's set to Pacific time.  Sydney opens at one and the bigger volumes start at 3p with Asia joining in.  You can watch the crash with these simple live chart (1st link).  The permabulls think this is just a correction and will be the last ones to say "this won't stop going down".  That's when it will stop going down.  Egypt is the only Arab quasi-ally/trading partner with Israel so yes this mess in Egypt is of massive importance to investors. There's a ton of boiled frogs in this market and the fire just got set to high.  Sell at market tomorrow as these are usually 3 day knife down affairs if resolution is in sight.  If more countries join in it will be worse and quite ugly...just as the individual investor was beginning to tiptoe back into equities.





DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Thank you as well onarga!  Your picture sure is familiar looking...

Stoploss's picture

The Benner cycle is relevant as well. Maybe Tyler could post the graph, as i have lost mine along with the drive it was on. :(

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Best be time to go to the dollar!  You can eat 'em!  Yuck yuck!

Clycntct's picture

Quote from Jack Lalanne

"if it tastes good, spit it out."

Bill Lumbergh's picture

I just read that in the weekend version of the Financial Times today...

Blindweb's picture

Also from Jack Lalanne "if man made it, don't eat it"...

If man made it, don't use it as money

Oppressed In California's picture

"I can't die," LaLanne would say. "It would ruin my image."

equity_momo's picture

Mr Hendrix , i share your ultimate belief in precious metals and disdain of the dollar , but the short to medium term future will see the dollar reign supreme as King of the Fiats and cash will outperform risk.   I personally dont think gold will sell off much priced in dollars before it continues towards 2k , but do not write the dollar off yet. 

Racer's picture

All to do with generational time scales.. people, their families and memories of poverty and money

snowball777's picture

Gotta love the vertical dot-bomb...revenues? we don' need no steenkin' revenues!

Rainman's picture

...but..but.. does this charting track assume the financials will someday mark to market ??

gwar5's picture

Another piece of evidence confirming the Mayan doomsday is right on schedule.

Look forward to seeing the rest of the piece by Sean Corrigan.

Bill Lumbergh's picture

Interesting and quite possible...the masses seem to think the worst is over and inflation is a foregone conclusion...when everyone is piled in one way many times there is money to be made going the other way.

topcallingtroll's picture

Yep....i see you notice sentiment too. It is erie how something always comes out of the blue and is unpredictable but it results in an unanticipated change at sentiment extremes. It is such a regular occurence you would think people might start predicting it, even if the specific catalyst for reversal cant be seen in advance.

Captain Benny's picture

Anyone stop and think about how this lines up with "The Fourth Turning" ?  Nearly perfectly.

sunny's picture

Yep.  I've been watching.  Fascinating and sorta scary all at the same time. Didn't the French face a situation very similar to ours in 1789?  Didn't the French invent the guillotine?


Goldtoothchimp09's picture

not to mention Yellowstone supervolcano just became more active 2 days ago!!

doggings's picture

lol. the ultimate black swan.. they didn't see that coming..

doggings's picture

Anyone stop and think about how this lines up with "The Fourth Turning" ?  Nearly perfectly.

some people do, in great detail - http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=9728

lots of these get posted here too

Misean's picture

Ben's gonna buy that F'ing dip. Should work out well.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ben loved spending time in Davos almost as much as he enjoyed his treehouse.  The only difference was he did not have his printer in Switzerland.  He hoped that would be fixed next year with his new iprinter app.  He wanted to be able to print money wherever he went. 

He was talking a stroll through the town square when his telephone rang.  It was Timmah. 

"Timmah!"  Said Timmah. 

"Yes I am quite well aware of the situation in Africa.  Let Barry deal with it.  In the meantime, I want you to buy Ford double fisted, and keep Netflix and Apple up.  Lord knows how pissed Llyod will be if Hedge Funds liquidate their positions." 

"Timmah?"  Asked Timmah. 

"Strong dollar, weak dollar, it is all the same.  We are in this race until the end, and we want corporations to inherit the world.  We may sacrifice the Dollar at the alter of the Temple soon." 

This excited Timmah.  "Timmah!" 

"That's right, it is almost time.  We sold off enough gold in January to flush the weak hands out.  And in case you are wondering, I will step down 15 minutes after the dollar collapses." 


Bernanke didn't answer him.  He knew he had promised Timmah Fed Chair, but he had also promised Krugman Fed Chair.  As Jamie wanted Treasury Sec, it looked like Timmah would be working for Citi with Orzog.

"We will discuss your future later.  In the meantime, get my printer warmed up.  Daddy is going to be home soon, and I want to cuddle." 

"Heh heh...Timmah."  Timmah chuckled.

Bernanke hung up the phone and Timmah got busy on his 1987 8 bit Nintendo setting up his Futures Market.  He sucked on hos beer helmet, full of Jolt, and wondered, 'Maybe this was the week he would beat the last level of his PPT video game, called "Own the World's Paper".  Boy was he excited!

equity_momo's picture

BTFD parrots , and Team Wanger ,  will do well to heed this chart. We will break down through those March 09 lows again.  Many have stuck by this forecast regardless of Bernanks printer - he is a speed bump.   I dont care how much paper he can conjure - theres an inevitability about where asset prices are heading. Market forces are wonderful things.  


-for those that like cycles , google Kondratiev Wave

dick cheneys ghost's picture

god help us. kill the banks Now!!!.....

RobotTrader's picture

38.2% retrace of the move from 666 to 1300 is 1058.

That's the first stop.

HarryWanger's picture

It's going to take something major to pull this market back to 1050 level again. I can't see it happening, at least in the next couple of years. We may see 1400 yet this year.

TooBearish's picture

Maybe a war in Mideast?  But agree in general major trend is still up - preserve status quo above all else....