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18.8 Million Vacant Homes In Q3, Seasonally Adjusted Homeownership Rate At Decade Low

Tyler Durden's picture


The US Census Bureau has released its Third Quarter report on Residential Vacancies and Homeownership. As can be seen from the attached chart, the number of vacant homes in Q3 has started increasing once again after posting moderate improvements over the prior two quarters, and is now at 18.8 million units, rising from 18.4 million in the prior year. With new home sales surprising to the downside, look for this number to continue increasing into the fourth quarter. Notable is that the rental vacancy rate stood at an all time high of 11.1%. As James Lockhart, former director of the FHFA which he singlehandedly managed to destroy said: "We are bumping along the bottom of the housing market. There
is the potential for another swing down.
" Don't tell that to the GDP numbers.

Also notable in the release is that the seasonally adjusted homeownership rate of 67.4% is at an almost decade low and at a level last seen in the year 2000.

With even PIMCO going actively negative on MBS, the US housing picture deterioration is sure to accelerate. What the Fed managed to salvage so far after purchasing nearly $1 trillion in MBS is done. From this point on the long, shallow glide lower into increased vacancies and decreased homeownership rate will only become an ever more acute reality once 30 year mortgage rates start their inevitable creep up.

Full census report below:


Census Housing


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Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:12 | Link to Comment koaj
koaj's picture

they expected 19m vacancies so this is in fact "better than expected"

rally on wayne...

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

The equivalent of putting platform shoes on a gorilla so it won't scrape its knuckles!

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yeah, that's the ticket. Black leather boots with those spiky high heels and a whip and..................never mind, wrong blog.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:17 | Link to Comment bonddude
bonddude's picture

Don't worry the President says today that the "recession is abating."

Now runalong and get about your re-upping your unemployment bennys.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture

Kudlow is on CNBS cheerleading the GDP number as a sign of a full recovery. One of the guest commentators had to remind him that 1.7 % of the GDP number was due to the "Cash for Clunkers" program. This reality of course did nothing to deter him from showing wood for the rest of the segment. I don't know what they serve in the employee break room but I want some!

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:01 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now now, Kudlow and coke is all in the past. What he's currently experiencing is a "natural" high. No Viagra or coke for my man, he's as natural as MCC's ........never mind, wrong blog again.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:29 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

(Alice falls down the rabbit hole and her dress poofs up like a parachute)

 Alice: Well, after this I should think nothing of falling down stairs.

White Rabbit: [singing] I'm late / I'm late / For a very important date. / No time to say "Hello." / Goodbye. / I'm late, I'm late, I'm late.

Alice: If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is because everything would be what it isn't. And contrary-wise; what it is it wouldn't be, and what it wouldn't be, it would. You see? 

Cheshire Cat: Of course, he's mad, too.

Alice: But I don't want to go among mad people.

Cheshire Cat: Oh, you can't help that. Most everyone's mad here. [laughs maniacally; starts to disappear]

Cheshire Cat: You may have noticed that I'm not all there myself.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:35 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

This is incredible, subprime issuance back to 2006 levels.

“After plummeting in early 2008, the share of borrowers with FICO credit scores lower than 660 has returned to just higher than 20%, the same share as when subprime securitization peaked in 2006,” Krainer said.


Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:45 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

If anyone has any doubt that we are just about to repeat the same disaster that got us here (except this time we won't have to transfer the risk to the taxpayer because it already sits squarely on them thanks to the FHA) look no further than today's mortgage market.  Recently, a change in some underwriting standards for those using wholesale lines meant requiring a 630 or higher credit immediately started evaporating and it was quickly changed back to 620.  Subprime is the new it...

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:47 | Link to Comment reading
reading's picture

oh and don't forget they only need to put 3.5% down the majority of which could and did come from the tax credit....

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:38 | Link to Comment AR
AR's picture

TYLER / Off-hand, quickly, do you, or anyone on ZH have the actual # of homes (not percentage %)??? 18.8 million homes vacant out of how many total physical units? Thanks.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:14 | Link to Comment nhsadika
nhsadika's picture

They do such a great job of creating and posting content, please read it before asking.

130302 is the total number of units (page #3 of the report).

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:20 | Link to Comment AR
AR's picture

Thanks nhsadika, completely overlooked it when glanced through the report.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:00 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Sounds like a good plan - they can start with California maybe then sell the land to China...

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:50 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

The streetwalking analysts of CNBC 

Hey baby what you got? Depends on what you need. Good Q3s and a quick fed injection. I can do that. For fifty bucks I'll let our assets make an appearance but for $250, I'll stay up all night and help with the paperwork. Ever had two analysts at once? Sounds good, get in.    

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 10/29/2009 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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