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18.8 Million Vacant Homes In Q3, Seasonally Adjusted Homeownership Rate At Decade Low

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The US Census Bureau has released its Third Quarter report on Residential Vacancies and Homeownership. As can be seen from the attached chart, the number of vacant homes in Q3 has started increasing once again after posting moderate improvements over the prior two quarters, and is now at 18.8 million units, rising from 18.4 million in the prior year. With new home sales surprising to the downside, look for this number to continue increasing into the fourth quarter. Notable is that the rental vacancy rate stood at an all time high of 11.1%. As James Lockhart, former director of the FHFA which he singlehandedly managed to destroy said: "We are bumping along the bottom of the housing market. There
is the potential for another swing down.
" Don't tell that to the GDP numbers.

Also notable in the release is that the seasonally adjusted homeownership rate of 67.4% is at an almost decade low and at a level last seen in the year 2000.

With even PIMCO going actively negative on MBS, the US housing picture deterioration is sure to accelerate. What the Fed managed to salvage so far after purchasing nearly $1 trillion in MBS is done. From this point on the long, shallow glide lower into increased vacancies and decreased homeownership rate will only become an ever more acute reality once 30 year mortgage rates start their inevitable creep up.

Full census report below:

 

Census Housing

 

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Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:12 | 114045 koaj
koaj's picture

they expected 19m vacancies so this is in fact "better than expected"

rally on wayne...

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:16 | 114047 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

The equivalent of putting platform shoes on a gorilla so it won't scrape its knuckles!

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:56 | 114148 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yeah, that's the ticket. Black leather boots with those spiky high heels and a whip and..................never mind, wrong blog.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:17 | 114048 bonddude
bonddude's picture

Don't worry the President says today that the "recession is abating."

Now runalong and get about your business...like re-upping your unemployment bennys.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:33 | 114068 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Now if you will excuse me, there are some other Presidential golf records that need breaking now that I have blown by Bush"

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:20 | 114051 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Kudlow is on CNBS cheerleading the GDP number as a sign of a full recovery. One of the guest commentators had to remind him that 1.7 % of the GDP number was due to the "Cash for Clunkers" program. This reality of course did nothing to deter him from showing wood for the rest of the segment. I don't know what they serve in the employee break room but I want some!

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:01 | 114153 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now now, Kudlow and coke is all in the past. What he's currently experiencing is a "natural" high. No Viagra or coke for my man, he's as natural as MCC's ........never mind, wrong blog again.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:29 | 114059 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

(Alice falls down the rabbit hole and her dress poofs up like a parachute)

 Alice: Well, after this I should think nothing of falling down stairs.

White Rabbit: [singing] I'm late / I'm late / For a very important date. / No time to say "Hello." / Goodbye. / I'm late, I'm late, I'm late.

Alice: If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is because everything would be what it isn't. And contrary-wise; what it is it wouldn't be, and what it wouldn't be, it would. You see? 

Cheshire Cat: Of course, he's mad, too.

Alice: But I don't want to go among mad people.

Cheshire Cat: Oh, you can't help that. Most everyone's mad here. [laughs maniacally; starts to disappear]

Cheshire Cat: You may have noticed that I'm not all there myself.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:31 | 114063 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Regarding shadow inventory buildup. Is it possible that banks are not following up on forclosures because they can't find the paperwork?

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2009/10/09/title_troubles...

I know it's old news, but I haven't heard a peep out of MSM on it.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:35 | 114072 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

This is incredible, subprime issuance back to 2006 levels.

“After plummeting in early 2008, the share of borrowers with FICO credit scores lower than 660 has returned to just higher than 20%, the same share as when subprime securitization peaked in 2006,” Krainer said.

http://www.housingwire.com/2009/10/28/san-francisco-fed-sees-fha-revive-...

 

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:45 | 114084 reading
reading's picture

If anyone has any doubt that we are just about to repeat the same disaster that got us here (except this time we won't have to transfer the risk to the taxpayer because it already sits squarely on them thanks to the FHA) look no further than today's mortgage market.  Recently, a change in some underwriting standards for those using wholesale lines meant requiring a 630 or higher credit score...business immediately started evaporating and it was quickly changed back to 620.  Subprime is the new it...

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:47 | 114086 reading
reading's picture

oh and don't forget they only need to put 3.5% down the majority of which could and did come from the tax credit....

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:46 | 114212 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

All part of the plan. There's no way out so might as well get more involved to thin out the blame.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:38 | 114078 AR
AR's picture

TYLER / Off-hand, quickly, do you, or anyone on ZH have the actual # of homes (not percentage %)??? 18.8 million homes vacant out of how many total physical units? Thanks.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:14 | 114116 nhsadika
nhsadika's picture

They do such a great job of creating and posting content, please read it before asking.

130302 is the total number of units (page #3 of the report).

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:20 | 114119 AR
AR's picture

Thanks nhsadika, completely overlooked it when glanced through the report.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:50 | 114093 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

blobama can send fema, tsa, dhs, and his other gestapo agents to burn down the homes just like fdr did with agriculture during the 1930s......et voila - higher prices....

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:00 | 114152 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Sounds like a good plan - they can start with California maybe then sell the land to China...

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 14:19 | 114259 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Right smack in the middle of the Dust Bowl years.

...and it still failed. Not a good sign.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 11:54 | 114099 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It's fine. It's all good. CNBC is reporting on their website on "The Best All Time Selling @dult DVDS." Classy, as always.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 12:50 | 114144 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

The streetwalking analysts of CNBC 

Hey baby what you got? Depends on what you need. Good Q3s and a quick fed injection. I can do that. For fifty bucks I'll let our assets make an appearance but for $250, I'll stay up all night and help with the paperwork. Ever had two analysts at once? Sounds good, get in.    

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:10 | 114166 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

said with or without cue cards?

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 13:24 | 114187 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I live in a neighborhood of $700K homes (today's values maybe), and was out for a walk last night. Took notice of one street of about 20 homes where there's three homes that have been vacant for quite some time...at least a year. So I was curious who owns the homes/mortgages and searched the tax records this morning. All have been forclosed on, two of the three lenders were taken over by other banks, the latest one in July of 2009, the other in 2008. There hasn't been for sale signs on these properties as of yet, the yards are overgrown, and the houses are in disrepair. The mortagages are way underwater as you might expect. The highest one was for $1.4M on a house they'd be lucky to get $500K today because of the disrepair and conditions, the others were $780K & $810K with who knows where values will be for them. My point is...three different lenders here, all undeerwater, not spending $'s for upkeep, and not marketing the properties...if you extend this out to the rest of the country,it should indicate what's coming.

Thu, 10/29/2009 - 15:02 | 114310 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I remember seeing on zh that the banks have foreclosed on a large number of homes (in the millions) that they're currently sitting on and not putting up for sale. If I remember correctly, it worked out to 15 months of volume at current levels. Can anyone point me to a reference with details?

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