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1999 Party Girls Gone Wild
Smells like 1999 all over again, especially with the sectors which have the worst prospects rocketing the hardest. WSJ today reported record trading volumes by retail daytraders in August, proof positive that Gambling Fever has once again gripped the unemployed and the elderly.
You must wonder who is more motivated: Hordes of unemployed mortgage brokers and real estate agents who have resorted to daytrading or "smart money" on Wall Street trading on "fundamentals"??
Looks like Wall Street professionals are no match for the giant herd of daytraders camping out in thousands of Starbucks locations across the country.
Fundamentals really don't matter anymore, its all about motion, short squeezing, and what sectors are ramping the hardest.
No different than drunk Navy sailors hitting the bar, they go to the skankiest ones first:
Even the oil sector has been rocketing, despite crude oil doing pretty much nothing the last few days:
And let's not leave out the "Widow and Orphan" sectors. Somehow Grandma is not content to leave her money in 3-mo. T-Bills for a paltry 9 basis points, when she can get 5% on this:
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You go Granny!
Robo,
An after the close "must read!"
I stumbled upon this interesting set of "charts" you may find of good use . . .
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32840738
Yep, nothing changed for the market although fundamentals have gotten worse. For many ETFs I've noticed that we are at March 08 lows (Q's). How does someone with a brain and independent thought trade this market? Can't hold longs beyond intra-day - even that scares me.
maybe Grandma can cash in some of these junkers for a new TV!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7w34nNux4Xw
The "Worst of the Worst" banks in Europe rallied huge today.
Two Irish banks, 80% owned by the UK government, because they swallowed whole billions of dollars worth of MBS/CDO/squared/cubed garbage..
This particular news/price action seemed to have sparked the rally today. More socialism for the new and improved capital markets. Markets the world over are like nestlings with their beaks wide open waiting for the next morsel. Soon they will learn to fly all by themselves right?
More likely they get so fat they break the nest.
Not owned by the UK government - Ireland has been independent for a while - but otherwise the point stands
So how come volume across the broader market has been continuously declining, if daytraders had "record volume" in August? Something isn't right here.
Little institutional transactions, except between the Fed and Goldman/JPM/etc...
That would disprove the claim of "the institutional players slowly buying into the market" in August, hehe :-)
Latest from Rasputin:
"Heh, just as Bernanke was cooing that the
"recession" (translation: "Great Disintegration I") is very likely
over, the New York Fed released this announcement:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/talf_operations.html
...whereby they announced yet another TALF program of taking toxic trash in exchange for freshly-flung fiat.
And here is a list of the horrid ABS and other debt the Fed will accept:
Auto Prime retail lease
Auto Prime retail loan
Auto Subprime retail loan
Auto
Motorcycle/other recreational vehicles
Auto Commercial and government fleets
Auto Rental fleets
Credit Card Prime
Credit Card Subprime
Equipment Loans and Leases
Floorplan Auto
Floorplan Non-Auto
Premium Finance Property and casualty
Servicing Advances Residential mortgages
Small Business SBA Loans
Student Loan Private
Student Loan Gov’t guaranteed
...so, now in addition to credit card bills for nightcrawlers and
loans for Harley Hogs "backing" the U.S. fiatsco, we can also include
such quality "assets" as iPods, meals charged at McDonalds and other
"collateral" as the underlying base of our monetary system.
..to sheeple (just come in and sign, drive the
car for two months, return it for a full refund and we will pretend
that whole time like it was a "sale"), and the "Cash for Appliances"
program kicks in soon, and the "Cash for McMansions" program is already
being debated for an extension.
Not to mention that the FHA is piling in every dirtbag, deadbeat,
low-FICO idiot (that not even Wall Street would have underwritten in
the heydey of subprime) into rotting McBoxes and the Fed is snapping up
similar MBS being generated by Fannie/Freddie/FHLBs.
The Fed and Uncle Sugar have a literal "vested interest" in skying the stock markets for several reasons:
a. To keep the 100 million 401(k)/IRA/mutual fund loving sheeple complacent
b. To make sure that the Uncle's and Fed's investments in Fannie,
Freddie, AIG, Citi, BofA, all the other "TARP Babies", GM and Chrysler
show a "profit"
Second, please allow me to share an anecdote from an investor
conference I attended back in late February--at the absolute low of the
stock markets and the height of the banking collapse, with Citi and
BofA both on the ropes.
In the exhibition area, I witnessed first-hand the sheeple
crowding around all the scam stock and options trading software
platforms, eager to continue their day-trading.
Then, while standing in the booth of a major "investment advisor"
(which shall remain nameless), I also witnessed with my own two
Rasputin eyes lamb-after-lamb come up to check on their stock positions
on the monitors, each and every one of them cheering for higher prices.
It was then that I mumbled to myself "Well, so much for having the 'Animal Spirits' crushed out of the populace".
Of course, it was shortly thereafter that the Fed and Uncle Sugar
"put the pedal to the metal" and really started cranking up the "Great
Monetization Money Machine" and began with the full-tilt "Weimar Meets
Zimbabwe" campaign that carries through to this very day.
So, this re-skying of the stock markets is no great surprise. And of course the lambs are loving it.
However, they may not love it so much if the world really IS
abandoning the U.S. nightcrawler (due to our continued monetary
insanity) if a loaf of bread costs fifty fiatscos and a gallon of milk
seventy-five.
Helicopter drops of nightcrawlers from the sky?
LOL.
"
You forgot auto theft and grand theft auto.
Does anyone besides me get the feeling that the perceived time horizon for successful can-kicking is getting shorter again? We seemed to have a period where the crisis was being managed in real time, or at least on an hourly basis (fall '07, summer / fall '08), new alphabet credit facilities, etc. Then there was a period where the longer-term programs were all in effect; some of these are now expiring, like the MM guarantees and QE. I am getting an old familiar tingle on the back of my neck.
Edit:
Then, while standing in the booth of a major "investment advisor" (which shall remain nameless), I also witnessed with my own two Rasputin eyes lamb-after-lamb come up to check on their stock positions on the monitors, each and every one of them cheering for higher prices.
It was then that I mumbled to myself "Well, so much for having the 'Animal Spirits' crushed out of the populace".
We never had our capitulation. I think we will still have it. What the hell do I know.
What the hell do I know.
A lot more than you accept SWR. I agree all that has been accomplished by policy makers is to reengage the time horizon shortening mechanism in a vain attempt to pretend this is still a liquidity/confidence game while policy makers dream that capitulation has become passe. Capitulation is an essential element of business & investing cycles and will happen regardless of what the sheeple that populate policy making attempt.
very nicely done rasputin.
pretty sad too. I'm so sick of the lying and the irresponsibility of the Fed and the US gov't. we are still only one slip up away from the edge as far as I am concerned.
if there was ever any doubt that the USA does not learn from its lessons, let the recent action of the past several months be proof that we have not learned. amazing.
granny is about to get it a lot worse than she has ever got it before and that my friends is about as civil as I can be about it. time and time again, we see talking heads, on CNBC coming on there counseling caution. oh the CNBC hosts try to brow beat them in line, but nevertheless they say what is on their minds anyway. anyone who jumps on this bandwagon is going to get a very rude awakening and that is putting it mildly, imho of course...
granny is about to get it a lot worse than she has ever got it before and that my friends is about as civil as I can be about it. time and time again, we see talking heads, on CNBC coming on there counseling caution. oh the CNBC hosts try to brow beat them in line, but nevertheless they say what is on their minds anyway. anyone who jumps on this bandwagon is going to get a very rude awakening and that is putting it mildly, imho of course...
drunk sailor bait:
http://graydonsheppard.com/blog/uploaded_images/real-ugly-face-765430.jpg
She'd be considered hottie in Naples at 3 a.m. Just don't make her laugh.
heckfire robo, you's making daytrading seem all greasy and stuff. even us unemployed types need a reason to get up in the AM.
...and, when all you have to do is plug in three random letters into the "Symbol" box for a stock trade to make money...you have to love the country that affords you that opportunity.
yep....Gawd Blest America and Long Live Uncle Sam Goldman
So how do we properly gauge the peak of the euphoria?
hahahaha. even I know that's a silly question.
Yeah Baby !! Its more like the Summer of 1999 and less like the Winter of 1929 !! Yeah Baby !!
I'd say we are about at November 1999. Four months to go.
Once the Fed stops printing $25B a month to buy agency MBS, the excess money will burn off. Sure they will continue to lend to any old crap, like Best Buy credit cards, but the MBS money is overwhelming it all. If that stops, better run for a chair.
If, on the other hand, the Fed finds it can't stop and continues buying at the current pace through next year, we could see S&P 2000.
Watch the MBS purchases for clues.
Starbucks needs to cut a colo deal with Duncan Niederauer to give the daytraders more value for their caffeine.
"Can I have a front-running connection with my latte?"
Don't forget car rental companies. These are apparently the new "darlings" of the computers and day-traders.
Apparently, people will be renting cars by the millions with how much air travel has increased this year...oh wait.
Well, at least the value of their car inventories are obviously skyrocketing right now...hmm no.
Yeah, I'm bitter, I bought my CAR/DTG Jan puts last week.
So I learned my lesson this week. I found the worst company possible, with the worst management possible, in the absolute worst industry possible and bought a ton of $7.5 call options on them on Monday. ITM in only two days!
Thank you, DRYS. Green shoots!!!
You absolutely picked the right metrics...you forget about the debt level? Next time, factor that in too and you could be in the money in one day.
After hours more than a million shares trade in SRS. Maybe someone can help me since it is trading 45-70 cents above market. Is this a trade that occurred earlier and thrown out in packets after the close? Underlying price has not changed at all despite monster after hours volume for this little beast. And it continues to go on....for over 2 hours now.
More Viagra! Gotta ... stop ... thinking.
lol
What_Me_Worry you might also want to look at BK companies hahaha
It's funny you should say that. BK companies have been the only companies that I have held since January. Everything else I trade.
I was a huge buyer of Wamu trust preferred and regular preferred back in January. I also hold a nice position in Lehman trust preferred post-BK before people realized just how important having trust preferred was.
They are my biggest gainers for 09.
In fact, besides this quick trade I am doing in DRYS, BK stocks are the only longs in my entire portfolio right now (Most of it has gone short at this point).
lmao @ the seniors daytrading.... I can totally see an E-trade commerical for seniors mimicing the 'Pull the trigger Mr Yang!'
I thought the big news today was the sacrifice of the Public Option out of Health Care, making the current score Divine Corporate Oligarchs 19,000,000,000,000, Stupid Peasants 0. Another slam dunk by Master Insurance, another stunning reminder of the Power of the Lobbying Side, and another reassurance of the continued rule of the Deservingly and Anointedly Divine Corporate Oligarchs. Why NOT a victory rally?
I have a vision of a future America, where the wind blows pieces of paper, mixed with dust and other trash, through nearly-deserted streets. Some of those pieces of paper are U.S. currency, some are MBS's, some are stock certificates.
A homeless derelict sees some toilet paper among the trash. "I'll take some of that," he says.
"Rollover" - 1980, Kris Kristofferson & Jane Fonda. Premised on the oil states pulling their still valuable fiats instead of manufacturing states sending them home marked zero. You haven't seen the meltdown scene on YouTube?
Equity l/S managers have been increasing net and gross exposure. The trend is your friend until it isn't. "Smart money" that missed a good part of this rally is getting longer. Managers like horseman are getting smoked. E L/S managers are increasing leverage and will take this crazy party well past the midnight hour. Breakout mania. Until Q3 growth is debunked, and the gov controls that info, this rally will continue. Not to mention obama's spy button in the oval office
The bottom line, though, is that “we’re in great shape,” Cramer said. Ignore the naysayers, and prepare for a recovery.
“Let’s laugh at the doom-and-gloomers,” he said, “all the way to the bank.”
It'll be funny when the daytrading morphs to daytrading for life. One more morsel, one more drop of agua, one more night's rest....
Driven there by the architects of disaster. Central bankers and their inbred cabal. Can't root them out. It's been tried. Jackson and others.
US currency is just a trophy wall really.
The bottom line, though, is that “we’re in great shape,” Cramer said. Ignore the naysayers, and prepare for a recovery.
“Let’s laugh at the doom-and-gloomers,” he said, “all the way to the bank.”
Equity l/S managers have been increasing net and gross exposure. The trend is your friend until it isn't. "Smart money" that missed a good part of this rally is getting longer. Managers like horseman are getting smoked. E L/S managers are increasing leverage and will take this crazy party well past the midnight hour. Breakout mania. Until Q3 growth is debunked, and the gov controls that info, this rally will continue.
DOW / SP500 / FTSE weekly trend continues to show strength.
Daily chart still overbought.
The weekly trend will always have more influence than smaller time frames such as the daily chart.
But are copper and bonds giving us a warning ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook
Miranda Kerr
WOW
howard beale,
there was a solid 1.5 hours of etf's prints outside the b/a bands yesterday from around 2. i have seen no explanation for it, but it was seen over various terminals from various providers.
Hey Robo,
I just wanted to say thank you for your posts. I really like them. You have made me a much sharper chart reader Robo. I mean it. I think you should put together a synopsis of this whole clusterfuck story begins in 1776, 1913, or the early 80's. Using succinct charts, and the usual "format", I think you could reach a lot of males who's attention span is about one paragraph or one picture long. Maxim/Playboy = learn about finance and economics? Maybe sex teaches as well as sells? Hmmm.....
Rock Out With Your Stock Out!!