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On That $2 Million Bet Of $1,800 Gold By October

Tyler Durden's picture


Some days ago, the broader media made a big deal out of an option trade worth $1 million that bet on a 37% drop ($25) in silver by July. We discussed it here. Yet the same media has been oddly silent on what over the past two days has been a trade that is double in capital at risk and involves gold futures. As can be seen on the charts below, between April 12 and 13, someone has made a bet that gold would jump to $1,800 by October, having purchased about 3,000 October $1,800 calls in GC. We are eager to hear how this particular trade that goes against the MSM's perpetual bias against precious metals is spun (if at all).

April 12:

April 13:

h/t David



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Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:09 | 1173009 Cheyenne
Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:23 | 1173087 Thomas
Thomas's picture

They are just BFTDs.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:44 | 1173197 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

And on top of it CAN eat gold and silver!!!!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:39 | 1174006 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


"All your Dips are belong to us."


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:54 | 1173501 optimator
optimator's picture

Perhaps Boob Blinker changed his mind on gold?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:05 | 1173854 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

can you believe that guy. i remember i was listening late one sunday night and he got frosted when someone called into his show and was talking about the FED conspiracy, ha ha ha ha . this asshole is sooooooooooo yesterday's news........

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:33 | 1173977 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Gold and Silver close week on highs for second week running. That's all anyone needs to know. Buy it if they smack it down early next week.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:12 | 1173013 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What happens to these bets when the COMEX goes bust?  

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:12 | 1173021 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

To the fucking moon with the eventual forced buyout in clown cash.  Timing is everything.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:15 | 1173041 SDRII
Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:16 | 1173049 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Let's hope so, for the sake of this poor, brave, dumb bastard.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:09 | 1173340 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Clown cash, LOL!

I'm guessing they keep an infinite amount of it in the trunk of their clown car.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:13 | 1173019 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

gold has no real value, fed can just print more of it. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:16 | 1173036 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

You cant eat gold but you can eat paper money.

I wonder if my shit would turn green???

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:23 | 1173084 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

i ate ipad it was yummy.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:41 | 1174018 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


I don't know if you can eat an iPad, but you can blend it:


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:29 | 1174251 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

bernank rule of keynesian thumb: if you can blend it, it is deflating.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:29 | 1173112 Thomas
Thomas's picture

And then there's the Oprah Winfrey/bowling ball joke.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:35 | 1173157 Spastica Rex
Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:32 | 1173138 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Looks like Ayn Rand was right about this;

"Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men's protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold was an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it becomes, marked: 'Account overdrawn"

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:27 | 1173411 Dexter Morgan
Dexter Morgan's picture

Very nice.  There is a good video of Ayn Rand and and Mike Wallace on youtube from 1959.  Atlas Shrugged comes out today, BTW.  I will see it on Sunday.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:51 | 1173500 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

+1 for ayn

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:54 | 1174081 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture


Agree or disagree with her philosophy; she accurately predicted the ultimate end of democracy... which we are currently witnessing...


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:11 | 1173020 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

too conservative

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:13 | 1173022 cxl9
cxl9's picture

But didn't the guys who sold those calls take the other side of the bet, that gold won't hit $1800? Or should I not ask that question?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:19 | 1173054 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Sure you can.  In fact, if the MSM addresses this trade at all, I'm quite certain that they will "present" it by asking the very same question.

Congrats.  You're first to the party.  A regular Joe LaVorgna.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:20 | 1173071 Mises
Mises's picture

The person on the other side of the bet is a market maker, who immediately hedged his position a minute after the trade

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:25 | 1173086 d00daa
d00daa's picture


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:24 | 1173093 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That's the point.  Lots of people think it won't go that high that fast.  But SOMEONE does, and he's betting a pretty penny on it.

I personally think its stupid.  He should be long physical, or standing for delivery.  But it takes all kinds.  I salute this guy.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:30 | 1173115 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I agree, hell with puts and calls, you want to bet PM's go up then BUY them and put them in a safe!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:50 | 1173252 Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

I disagree.  The guys playing the futures/options are making money off of the ridiculous public policy AND the people buying the physical.  And when the PMs crash (please don't tell me this time is is just another round of fiat gone full retard...we have seen this before), the guys holding paper will get out a fuckload faster than you can even open your safe, let alone find someone else to buy your metal.  And this doesn't even account for the possibility that the govvies will come a'knockin' at your safe but it will be a lot harder for them to confiscate this clown's cash.

I accept that it is possible that there is a ton of fraud in Ft Knox and COMEX.  That is the one scenario where futures players could get crushed and holders of physical will not.  However, I also think that if/when that fraud is exposed, the likelyhood of being able to move physical into any kind of cash will be even worse. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:55 | 1173271 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Your brain is full of backwards.

lol, you think they would confiscate gold from individual's safes before taking all the gold held in exchange and ETF warehouses?  What are you smoking?

And when did we see this before where it didn't end in currency destruction?  The 1970's is the only example.  That time was different, because the US was a creditor nation and could jack up the interest rate.  This time is like every time before that in history, where the US OWES shit tons of money.  This will end like all those other times.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:08 | 1173329 Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

Really?  What do you think the increased reporting regulations for transactions with PMs are about?  What about the increased attention alt-currency groups are getting from the gov't?

Don't be a fool.  Your gold is much easier to take then that belonging to the banks (intra or extra-border).

Also, I agree, the fiat will die.  But when that collapse happens, nobody is going to want your gold.  So have fun with that.


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:15 | 1173355 d00daa
d00daa's picture


Because throughout human history, after every failure of fiat, nobody has ever wanted gold.  Ever.

I'm speechless.


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:14 | 1173361 Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

Not at the inflated prices created during the collapse, they don't.  Sheesh.  It's like people actually believe gold is the only thing on the planet that only goes up forever and ever.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:18 | 1173376 d00daa
d00daa's picture

"It's like people actually believe gold is the only thing on the planet that only goes up forever and ever."  -Argonaught


Wow.  Nice strawman and/or horrid use of hyperbole.  Please point out concrete examples of "people" that actually believe that.  Thanks in advance.

When you'd actually like to discuss the real world, let me know.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:17 | 1173602 Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

A tad harsh maybe, but fair and technically sound argument.  I will grant you that. 

As for the "people", I would argue anyone that thinks the answer to the coming collapse is holding physical metals.  They will not be worth more after the collapse...they will be worth less.  As will all assets.  Hard assets (I would consider land in a temparte climate a better one) are important to hold to protect earned wealth, but if you throw everything into metals, you will probably end up poorer than you started (ATTENTION: This is opinion).  

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:36 | 1174278 apartofthings
apartofthings's picture

You're missing the point. In a complete fiat crash, gold will of course lose some nominal value. But you will still be able to trade it for things, the price of which will have gone down. Buying gold as a speculative investment is silly, but using it to protect your purchasing power is not. And plus, after fiat crash, when sound money backed by gold is reintroduced, it will be great to have gold.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:47 | 1174342 Banjo
Banjo's picture

Argonaught: I am a massive fan of gold, silver and property and am fanstastically overweight metals at the moment 40% allocation. My goal is wealth preservation and hopefully some outperformance relative to other investment sectors.

There are periods in time when certain asset classes clearly outperform other sectors. I don't believe holding gold and silver will make me a billionaire by any stretch of the imagination. I do think these metals will at the very least hold relative value.


If the answer to the coming collapse (if it happens at all) is not precious metals what would you suggest?

  • Bonds
  • Cash
  • Stocks (any particular sector)
  • Overseas stocks (which country?)
  • Farm land
  • Potash
  • I like commodities I can't easily and inexpensively store oil, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton wheat as easily as Gold or Silver.
  • I have a store of food.
  • Is it worth getting into debt for any of the above?

I am really interested in what you see as an alternative here is a hypothetical portfolio one million dollars NO DEBT. Still alot of money today!

My allocation is 55% property including fixtures and fittings (basically own your own affordable home debt free and never pay the banks another cent of interest should be everyones goal) 5% cash 40% precious metals currently allocated 32% gold and 68% silver.

I'm interested in peoples alternate investment view to metals given the current climate.

Thank you.


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 19:29 | 1174695 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Poorer how? PM's are a sound alternative to cash or money in a bank. If we're talking about a "collapse"...what is cash, after a collapse? Anything is going to be better than a fiat note, once those become worthless.

For those of us who, in this hypothetical collapse, will own only what we physically possess, anything that is worth something in physical trade to other people is worth having.

I can't think of anyone who will be "richer" post-collapse than they were pre-. Everyone will be "poorer"...the question is, who will lose the least?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 22:05 | 1175075 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

I think before anyone starts to predict the value of PM's after a fiat crash, you have to ponder what a fiat crash means we have lost our medium of is losing its store of value and slowly using its unit of account usage (other countries are now cross trading their currencies sans the USD).  So when it loses it's medium of exchange it creates a problem for commerce and a vacuum of power.  What will fill it?  I doubt physical gold will.  Yes, PM's will go through the roof price wise denominated in USD but international trade and electronic commerce won't be conducted in it unless a new, universally accepted unit of exchange backed by PM's and/or other commodities appears.  There will be a gap in time when commerce is completely disrupted, imports and exports will screech to a halt and during this time gold and silver bullion may play a regional role in trade.  But gasoline, coffee, honey, beans, vitamines, dry milk, flour, rice, seeds...during the turmoil these could all be used in trade.  The NEW currency will have the same affect on US citizens as it did on the Dutch when they went to the Euro...I was told those citizens lost 1/2 their purchasing power during the conversion.  PM's won't become worthless but maybe illiquid for a while until they are deemed to be "money" by a currency replacement.

Sat, 04/16/2011 - 17:28 | 1176515 Banjo
Banjo's picture

hamstercheese: Gold and Silver are never illiquid. If someone is selling oil or coffee and your nation has Gold and in the context of a hypothetical fiat currency collapse. Do you think those sellers will be willing to exchange for gold?

The real problem may be reluctance of gold holders to give up their gold. Which means that gold essentially becomes more valuable. As more volume of a soft commodity would have to be put on the table in order for a gold holder to part with their precious metal.

Current gold production is 2500-2700 tonnes per year. This is equivalent to about 1.3grams per person on the planet. One ounce of gold is 31.1 grams.


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:34 | 1173435 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are talking about house to house searches of people who are almost 100% armed and ornery when it comes to government intrusion.

As opposed to having a couple of officials go down, threaten the security guards, and have their own staff load up the gold for you with the banks, who don't care about the metal, but only paper profit--and they will get plenty of paper compensation.

Sorry kiddo, you don't know what you are talking about.  EVERYONE is going to want my gold.  It's just that few will be able to afford it.

Feel free to leave ZH and whack off to thoughts of "The Road".  That isn't going to happen, nor is Mad Max.  There are too many guns, too many engineers, and too much arable land in this country for people to get aggressive, starve, and decline in a permanent manner.  We will have a few tough years, but not much worse than we have now, as the government collapses.  We will move back to a smaller government and a gold standard.  Then prosperity will return.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:06 | 1173548 Argonaught
Argonaught's picture

We will have a few tough years, but not much worse than we have now, as the government collapses.  We will move back to a smaller government and a gold standard.  Then prosperity will return. Egypt, Greece, Rome, England...ooops.  

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:52 | 1174073 tmosley
tmosley's picture

None of those governments collapsed.  Not in a real way.  When I say collapse, I mean bureaucrats are run out of the capital on a rail.

This happened in pretty much every country that has ever fallen sway to a tyrannical government.  People forget that that is not the natural state of things.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:14 | 1173360 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

+1800 TPTB will rig the game in their favor and their favor is not holding physical PM's. You can put a stop on a futures contract or in fact you can buy paper spot through a FX account and exit your position quickly or put a stop on it - it's the same as holding physical with more liquidity. I think the smart guys are the ones making FRN's from paper trades in the spot market  that will exit and then swoop in and buy physical from all the people that came late to the game. TPTB will always win that is why they are the TPTB.

All you let's get physical folks are betting on a one off - the end of world as we know it. That my friends is a very silly bet.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:27 | 1173408 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The crash of the US Dollar will happen overnight as it does with all currency crashes. Any PM's held in (ETF or Bank) vaults will evoraprate as the thieves will simply leave with it IF they actually held any physical metal. If you don't hold it you don't own it.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:15 | 1173901 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

The end of the world as we know it is in fact happening. Go research how many Chinese are buying gold and silver. Add in the Indians. Video interviews of gold and silver traders from these places are on line. Add in that the Chinese are going to dump their dollars and will pay more and more dollars for PMs as they value their dollars less and less. Between 50 and 100 million Chinese who can buy PMs, are being urged to do so by the Chinese government. Throw in several million Americans. Factor in that world mine production is about 600 million ounces. Factor in that photography still uses 100 million ounces, that jewelry, silverware, superconductors, electronics, biocides, and on and on takes another 500 or so million ounces, and what does that give you? The Chinese have done their math and they are going to do what they feel is in their own best interests, and it MAY bring the dollar down, or it may not. But PMs, especially silver have a long way to run. This is at its heart a geopolitical contest, and you are not factoring that into your analysis

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:16 | 1173904 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Sorry, I meant to reply to bothsidesnow...

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:56 | 1173510 seek
seek's picture

I agree with rig the game in their favor. However, TPTB own the central banks. And the central banks are the largest holders of gold and they are accumulating more right now. That argues in favor of physical.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:36 | 1173674 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

A shopping list is the same as holding groceries which don't need refrigeration.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 19:34 | 1174703 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

TPTB will always win

I think history is full of power changing hands. "End of the world" scenarios are not one-offs; they are just far enough apart in time that people think it'll never happen to them.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:25 | 1173099 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

A market-maker would hedge their exposure.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:15 | 1173032 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

probably the same person.

-betting silver goes down with the end of QE2 and no QE3.

-then betting gold surges after the announcement of QE in mid/late sept.



Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:18 | 1173059 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Betting SLV goes down, not silver.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:17 | 1173040 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

A bet that Fed doesn't drop "extended period" language in next set of minutes.  Dollar down, gold up.  That's the bet.  And implosion in economic growth.  

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:18 | 1173042 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Blythe is currently on the phone trying to remove October from the calendar this year. This years October will be replaced with another December (December II) to aid help retail sales.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:17 | 1173051 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Remove October', too damn funny, but probably true.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:18 | 1173047 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh Im sure the media will ignore this, or call it 'Some maniac' who thinks gold will be at 1,800.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:16 | 1173048 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Too bad he didn't place a big bet on WYNN.

The consumer cannot be stopped.  Gambling fever is bigger than ever, whether it be cards, roulette, or stocks.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:17 | 1173055 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH is that what youre long today 'WYNN' yes I see.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:18 | 1173058 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Look at the volume there, numbnuts.

Why don't you go back to being outsmarted by an inanimate lump of rock?  Oh, nevermind, I see you never stopped.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:22 | 1173072 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

RainbowTrader will never admit equity manipulation, hes paid to pretend its all 'retail buyer mania' or some such nonsense.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:21 | 1173061 d00daa
d00daa's picture

"The market is not pricing in QE3.  The market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US consumer."  -RobotTrader

This is going to be fun.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 20:06 | 1174774 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

Keep reminding me of the funny things robo has said, you are making me laugh!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:39 | 1173172 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:42 | 1173183 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Futures are skying! Sell gold, buy bank stocks!
RobotTrader - Fri, Apr 15, 2011 - 08:38 AM

LOL, I told all the anarchists at ZH last night, warning them of a rotation out of GLD and SLV into XLF......

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:48 | 1173227 countryboy42
countryboy42's picture


I usually look at your posts, laugh, then move on. Today is different. Earlier today you were lamenting about the fact that you live on $10 per day, were unable to get a job at Starbucks, and were going to look for an $8/hour job at a studio (I thought they paid fluffers more, but who knew?). Instead of acting like you make money with stocks you wish you owned, look up "Trade School" in your area. Go get a REAL skill, then mabey you can get out of your broom closet that over looks the freeway.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:31 | 1173419 redpill
redpill's picture

Index it by AGQ and see how much it has gone up.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:20 | 1173056 A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Maybe this is Goldman's hedge against the Silver collapse trade?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:18 | 1173060 gkm
gkm's picture

Heads up that CNBS is going to tell you how to cash in on your silver coins.  Next segment will likely be how to cash in by buying some chinese small cap.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:21 | 1173066 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Was chatting with a Canadian mining finance buddy.  He's now in Switzerland pitching his company(s).   Told me the Swiss fund guys are all very bullish on gold--many thinking $2K this year.  The gnomes gnowes.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:25 | 1173080 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wouldnt surprise me in the least. How many more days can they stabilize the dollar and continue pumping equities and bonds in the face of skying PM's and commodities? 

Just 'everything up?' oh ok.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:33 | 1173145 romanko
romanko's picture

his first name wouldn't be Mark by any chance?

Sat, 04/16/2011 - 01:03 | 1175374 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:24 | 1173081 HedgeFun
HedgeFun's picture

Shhhhh you'll ruin the suprise!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:25 | 1173098 earnulf
earnulf's picture

I think the main reason we are not in a PM bubble is that the MSM is still talking about selling, selling, selling, very little about the value of buying.   People are selling their jewelery, but darn few want to part with coinage (at least not without a 10-15% premium.)

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:28 | 1173107 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The media hates PM's because their vampire bankster overlord fiat pumpers hate PM's.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:56 | 1173336 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Come to Switzerland, we would be happy to give you a 10% premium over the spot price for your precious metal coins.  We will compensate you for them with our increasingly valuable and very transportable 1000 CHF banknotes.  We like to close our deals the old fashioned way- with a handshake, and not a receipt to be passed along to your home government.  However, be warned that we despise thieves and counterfeiters, and if you attempt either, we will happily deprive you of your precious coins before returning you to the far side our peaceful and carefully monitored border. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:28 | 1173105 Quintus
Quintus's picture

We are eager to hear how this particular trade that goes against the MSM's perpetual bias against precious metals is spun

Like this:  " ".

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:27 | 1173110 oddjob
oddjob's picture

No mention of this hedge anywhere,but WTF do they know,they only produce silver.

Primero to acquire 2/3 of Silver Wheaton silver sales

2011-03-21 11:04 PT - News Release


Mr. Joseph Conway reports


Primero Mining Corp. has purchased call options on silver at an average strike price of $39 (U.S.). The options cover two-thirds of the estimated silver sales to Silver Wheaton Corp. over the next six months for a total cost of $2.3-million (U.S.). The call options were purchased to improve the company's leverage to silver and reduce the adverse tax impact of the silver purchase agreement with Silver Wheaton, particularly in the event of a dramatic short-term rise in the silver price.

"We are committed to pursuing a number of different strategies to mitigate the tax imbalances arising from the silver purchase agreement with Silver Wheaton and our overall corporate structure. This first step provides significant protection for the company while at the same time exposing us to incremental profits from a potential rise in silver prices," said Joe Conway, president and chief executive officer. "We believe that within six months we will be able to implement longer-term mitigation strategies that should provide significant increases in cash flow to the company."

The silver purchase agreement provides that after the delivery of 3.5 million ounces of silver each year to Silver Wheaton, Primero and Silver Wheaton will share 50/50 in all silver produced at San Dimas. At present, all silver sold to Silver Wheaton is at approximately $4 per ounce, while the company incurs tax on these sales at market prices. The company currently expects to have delivered 3.5 million ounces by May, 2011. Between that date and Aug. 6, 2011 (the anniversary date of the agreement), Primero expects to sell between 500,000 and 750,000 ounces of silver at spot market prices for its own account, significantly increasing revenues and reducing byproduct cash costs during that period

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:33 | 1173142 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Funny how consumer stocks are in an even bigger bubble than SLV or CEF.

John Hathaway and all the other gold fund managers must stare at these charts in aghast, wondering what they are doing with so many gold stocks that are underperforming.

Foot Locker on a tear, new highs.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:38 | 1173175 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Still boring.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:08 | 1173339 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:27 | 1173403 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

The Chinese government is urging its citizens to buy silver, via ads on television. And they have been doing so for some time. The "problem" arises from two or three numbers, which are these. Let's say just 1/3 of the newly well-off Chinese [about 300 million folks about 1/3 of which equals 100 million folks which seems like a lot, but it is China] want to buy 100 oz of silver. That works out to about 14 years of total world production. I think that means that under just about any scenario this bull has some potential. Pick any reasonable set of numbers to fill in here, and check the production figures yourself. Factor in that the Chinese hate the fact that the worthless USD is the reserve currency. And guess what happens! People who say that silver only costs $7 an ounce to produce and thuis must go down are ignoring the demand side, and geopolitical realities. Face it, the USD really, really, sucks, and right now, for any number of reasons, its swirling around the drain hole.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:38 | 1173176 d00daa
d00daa's picture


Must suck to be you.


"The market is not pricing in QE3.  The market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US consumer."  -RobotTrader

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:38 | 1173177 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Those new sneakers have Silver in them.Takes the stink away.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:41 | 1173188 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Eric King and General Jim are laughing at you.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:46 | 1173209 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

funny how it's man's human nature to scan the globe to find folks who they perceive to be in as dire shape as they find themselves. witness robotard who rather than face the dim reality that he's not ready for prime time as a trader will go to any length to deceive himself that it's time to step away from the trade station and get a day job.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:47 | 1173231 d00daa
d00daa's picture

By the way, XLF is still "sucking wind" you fucking moron.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:39 | 1173447 pauldia
pauldia's picture

5 year chart foot locker vs gold



email this chart printer-friendly format
Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:08 | 1173876 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

That's the exponential parabolic 10% spike over 5 months. 

Foot Locker bubble.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:44 | 1173191 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

And how do we know that same guy is not short 3000 GC Oct futures and simply wanted to put a stop loss in rather than take a bullish directional bet?

People reading anything into these option trades are absolutely clueless and likely have little trading experience, like most journalists.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:47 | 1173219 d00daa
d00daa's picture

"Zero Hedge is a disease."  -FoieGras

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:48 | 1173239 Korrath
Korrath's picture

Lately, whenever Robo posts a new chart I get this violent Pavlovian urge to take out a home equity loan and dump all the fiat into SPXU.

Breath in, breath out...count backwards to 10 slowly.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:59 | 1173303 MapleLeaf
MapleLeaf's picture

I'm a novice here; can someone please briefly interpret the charts TD has put up. 3000 calls for $1800 gold at about $6 a piece? Thats about $18000 risked. Surely I've got something wrong.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:10 | 1173337 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Each contact costs $100. Mutliply by market price.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:18 | 1173368 MapleLeaf
MapleLeaf's picture

Ah, thanks!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:24 | 1173392 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

Each Call involves 100 items (?)

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:15 | 1173352 franzpick
franzpick's picture

From Jesse:  maybe this is new news:

Belarus Central Bank Halts Sales of Gold for Roubles

MINSK, April 15 (Reuters) - Belarus' central bank has stopped selling gold to local retail customers for Belarussian roubles it said on Friday, after demand for precious metals soared due to expectations of a currency devaluation.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:25 | 1173378 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Your better off storing up on water, medicine, food, ammo, weapons, etc. If your trying to make some $$$, well, hell thats fine. If you think everything will go to hell, which it might very well do, PM's will not help your plight. People will NOT trade PM's for dwindling commods that are hard to acquire. If you think they will, well I have beach front property for sale in Arizona...


The PM move is another bubble, as seen in housing and the NAR push (motto - up, up, up...). If for one moment you think you'll get one over on the masters of this game, which 99.999999% of us are not - just players, if that - then you have another thing coming. TPTB like for you to believe you have some "power", "choice", whatever, but in the end you play into their hands. They will have their cake and eat it too, while your left holding your dick out in the wind. Depending where this goes (doesn't look good) you might make some money (re-invest in physical commods), anything else and your fooling yourself.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:08 | 1173560 superman07
superman07's picture


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:07 | 1173561 superman07
superman07's picture

long lead.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:23 | 1173394 redpill
redpill's picture

"We are eager to hear how this particular trade that goes against the MSM's perpetual bias against precious metals is spun (if at all)."

It will be ignored, because it doesn't fit into the "So what stocks are hot" segment that RobotTrader masturbates to.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:30 | 1173412 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

Hey, can anybody please help me understand why silver is going through the roof but silver miner stocks somehow keep plotting losses??? i am serious. even non-bolivian silver miners. i don't get it. any help in this regard would be appreciated. don't worry, i am diversified. (holding silver AND silver miners)  :) 


would love some insight on this.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:52 | 1173494 Double down
Double down's picture

A wild shot in the dark here and this can be totally wrong. 

It is possible the miners cannot find reliable counterparties to unwind their short positions with.  The potential counterparties may not be willing to sell short PMs without a pound of flesh.  Also they may not actually have physical PMs.  

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:01 | 1173527 redpill
redpill's picture

We also still live in a world where paper gold/silver is treated, by many, as being the same as physical.  When that paradigm shifts and there becomes greater distinction between paper and physical, the miners should garner a lot more interest.  Of course, even if what you are mining is valuable, a mining company can be caught up in a lot of short interest that they can't easily unwind due to cash flow, or just be poorly run.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:11 | 1174151 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

it blows my mind that SLW, whose profits are practically pinned to the spot price, isn't following spot price movements much more closely. it just shows me that for some reason, these miners simply don't have a lot of visibility to many investors. When you say short interest, do you mean the miners typically sell short contracts to COMEX and other markets like that? i'm kind of a noob at the silver mining industry.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:56 | 1174387 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

First the miners have sold the future metal they will mine (fixed price). The big cost of mining is energy (Oil). So net profits are going down, and so is the price of their stock.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:33 | 1173428 Arrowflinger
Arrowflinger's picture

You arrogantly assume that we are "all in" gold and silver.

Anybody 100% invested in a sole asset class is a damned fool.

This being said, anyone overwhelmingly invested in the ponzi stock and bond markets in the presence of mark-to-fiction accounting is a worse fool.



Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:32 | 1173432 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

I don't assume we are all in silver and gold. I'm also not 100% invested into silver and miners. But, thanks for the reply. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:44 | 1173465 d00daa
d00daa's picture

He wasn't replying to you.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:55 | 1173515 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

oh wups. my bad. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:29 | 1173652 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Here's the reason miners are cheap, silver is up.  The ETF's have taken all the money that would normally be invested in the miners.  That was their purpose, to divert funds into meaningless paper that would have gone into miners and driven the price up.  The miners will not run until the ETF fiasco blows up (probly when the Comex defaults).  then the ETF holders will get paid off 6 weeks to 2 months later, comletely missing out on the moon shot, as we move into the mania phase with G & S.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:26 | 1174232 honestann
honestann's picture

100% of my assets are gold and silver, if you include the small percentage in gold and silver miners.

And I have no regrets.  I am up about 300% in the past 4 years.  That's supposed to scare me?  I'm supposed to run to fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt paper for security?


I'd say I'm laughing all the way to the bank, but I don't need not stinking banks any more.  Very liberating!  And when the US dollar collapses to zero, you can heat your house with your fiat.  Very efficient.  Good luck.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:40 | 1173458 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

FWIT, China is buying gold to use it as a base for the coming remimbi reserve currency. MAybe a rumor or ?

If this were onlu a little true, say 50% or less, The FED is useless in trying to stop it. I am staying long gold for the time being.


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:55 | 1173504 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Won't happen. If they unpeg their currency and back it with gold - two things happen 1) they artifically have to drive the value down, or else the difference in non backed currency would be so great no one could afford their products (US is major importer) 2) they allow the currency to strengthen and it greatly affects ALL commod price, imports, exports, you name it - which once again means no one is buying their crap.  Lastly, do you really think the US would allow this, especially if they try to use this as the default for oil trade - and don't say that the U.S. has no choice, trust me, they do...


China will, and is, going down the tubes... as is everyone else.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:49 | 1173492 MatrixAnalytix
MatrixAnalytix's picture

Check out the June 145 SPY calls...230K in volume now

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:32 | 1173664 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

So is this really a bet or an appearance to stir bullishness?  Do we know?  Seems like a small price for a lot of advertising among the proper circles.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:38 | 1173687 whereisjohngalt
whereisjohngalt's picture

3,000 1800call options? try 20,000. and the same buyer bot over 10,000 1850calls in oct today.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:35 | 1173988 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Does he have a worm in his brain he's trying to itch? Or does he know something we don't...Or is he signaling something we should also be paying attention to as well?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:15 | 1173893 markbird
markbird's picture

Hmm, I remember the $1m bet being on a drop in SLV  ETF. Not always the same

as  the physical metal. A loss of faith in the paper silver market might drive SLV down,

but silver itself up.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:26 | 1173951 thegameisthegame
thegameisthegame's picture

All of the central bank gold buying scares me.  If we ever do see a major decline (which has happened before), I fear many nations run the risk of being under reserved.  An undereserved nation is highly vulnerable to a loss of faith in its currency, leading to a subsequent economic downturn and potential debt crisis.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:02 | 1174123 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

A nation is better off with less gold than more? WTF?


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 17:01 | 1174118 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

Happy $43 Silver Day, everyone!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 18:05 | 1174432 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

That's a bet on a major Middle East war, pure and simple.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 18:06 | 1174434 malek
malek's picture

Thanks Tyler! This is what I love this site for...


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 18:26 | 1174506 Yield2Greatness
Yield2Greatness's picture

Hardly a bet.  More like taking fruit from a low hanging branch.

Sat, 04/16/2011 - 13:41 | 1176069 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

SHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Please!

I'm busy watching Balloon Boy reruns ..and similar important stuff like that.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!