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200 DMA Taken Out, As ES Drops Below 1,100
When this happened on the way up, it was being blasted endlessly on CNBC. Now, not so much. Watch out for the ongoing Liberty 33 stick save at the 1,100 level.
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Oh..my..God! I am having a GREAT day!! Hope everyone else is too! LMAO!!!
:)
I wonder why we haven't heard from Harry Wanger?????
Oh yeah - he is on vacation during red market days.
He should be back on the first green day with reports of the great earnings and how he caught the bottom.
That dude is funny.
Harry made a showing last evening and said that he was out of this game and he was gonna ride this thing down, he saw the light..Seriously, you gotta admire a man thats honest, cant say that about many..
On another thread he said he was going short (buying SDS) at 1100 and buying more if it went lower.
Already happened. But can the PPT keep up the props?
S&P pancaked at 1100, possibly another bearish push can break support.
buy on the dips guys, come on!
No volume here on the bottom....slight rally likely coming from resting orders. If we punch to 1095 though stops will get hit and the volume will jump through the roof.
Finally the press is pushing back agains the White House attempts to derail Glass-Steagall or should I say Co-President Rahm's attempts. This is from yesterday White House Press Briefing:
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, 5/17/2010James S. Brady Press Briefing Room
1:55 P.M. EDT
MR. GIBBS: Good afternoon. Chuck, take us away.
Q Okay, thank you --
Q Robert, why is the White House pressuring Democrats to back off from the Cantwell-McCain attempt to bring back Glass-Steagall?
MR. GIBBS: I don't have anything on that.
Q Why is it opposed to Glass-Steagall?
Q Robert --
Q Why is the White House opposed to it?
MR. GIBBS: I'm sorry?
Q Is the White House opposed to reestablishing Glass-Steagall?
MR. GIBBS: I don't have any information on the amendment. I'm happy to look at it.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/press-briefing-press-secretar...
Classic. Thank you, Sir. Too bad too few understand too little of this. Pray it will be enough.
I suspect after the routing of Specter & landslide for future Kentucty Senator Rand Paul the President is coming to the conclusion that if he wants to even sniff the Oval Office in 2012 going to have to dismantle Wall Street.
His plan is to dismantle the middle class before 2012.
Pierre Salinger often walked out of the room when certain things were being discussed so he could "honestly" say to the reporters later that "I don't know". It was his version of the "Sgt Schultz" defense. "
Sgt Schultz....."I see nothing. I wasn't even here. I didn't even get up this morning."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34ag4nkSh7Q
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Salinger
pricks
and check out this late night sleight of hand:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/18/AR201005...
just like DRat predicted. betya Doddley Do Wrong dropped that off on his way to meet his midnight mistress.
Yeah my head almost exploded when I saw that this morning. Let us have a committe and discuss how large the next bubble can be since surely 75% of American on food stamps at that point in time will be excellent for the economy.
Men like Chris Dodd belong in prison.
dodd is the biggest thug out of the whole bunch.a common low life worthless thug...
"Refresh my memory on this Glass Stegall thing.... what is it again?"
Just remember folks - feigning stupidity will not be a tolerable excuse when the walls come crashing down. Obama, his Democrat cronies, and the incumbent Republicans have had their chance to fix this mess.
If they don't radically alter this travesty of a financial "reform" bill in a big hurry, they might as well not even show up for the November elections.
They might want to start with Glass-Stegall, and work their way from there...
Oh, Helen Thomas skewers Robert Gibberish later on about that and the Warz - good stuff!
----
Helen?
Q What’s the difference between your foreign policy and Bush’s foreign policy?
MR. GIBBS: In what respect? In what issue?
Q In terms of the rest of the world -- Afghanistan, Iraq and so forth.
MR. GIBBS: Well, in Afghanistan, we committed three times the number of troops that were there during the Bush administration because we believe that was the central front on the war on terror.
Q Do you still think so?
MR. GIBBS: Absolutely.
Q Eight Americans killed on Saturday and so forth; we keep killing and dying there.
MR. GIBBS: I don't think there’s any doubt that Afghanistan and that region of the world present the most significant danger to our homeland in terms of the possible planning of attacks and the possible providing of a safe haven if the Taliban were to come back in control as they were before 2001 and 9/11 --
Q You’re in their country.
MR. GIBBS: I’m sorry?
Q Who’s the enemy when you invade a country?
MR. GIBBS: Well, again, I think as you saw last week, we are working with the -- in a partnership with the government of Afghanistan to secure an area and ultimately turn it over to them to provide peace and security for their people.
Q And one other question. Why don’t you know your position on Glass-Steagall, in view of the economy?
MR. GIBBS: I don’t have any information on the amendment that might come up.
Q That’s to take care of all the bankers in the Treasury Department.
MR. GIBBS: I’m sorry?
Q I said, why do they have such a dominance of bankers in the Treasury? [LOL]
MR. GIBBS: Well, I think, based on what the Treasury Department is doing on financial reform and the way that banks are fighting us, I’m not sure that the two -- I’m not sure that statement actually lines up with what’s going on in terms of financial reform right now.
---
Here's a YouTube video of it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pDpzZU8Cxc
oof...ouch! sucks to be him.
Jeez Leo, even Harry capitulated for a day. Maybe you should try it for 5 minutes
Someone is drowning in a liquidity tsunami. No chinese solar charts today?
Buy Chinese solars now! Thank me later!
I know its funny and all 'ha ha' but...youre fucking kidding i hope.
You're supposed to invoke BITCHES!!, or bitchez, or something like that for us to take you seriously.
No positions in the group one way or another, but, I gotta say, energy charts generally look like hammered dogshit.
Some of those solar charts are one weak support level away from the abyss. If I felt the need to be long something - and I actually would tend to start leaning long a bit - I'd play somewhere else entirely.
Not like I'm inventing the interpretation; show anyone who knows TA the chart without any symbol and ask what he thinks.
psy op a-hoy
People, please pay attention to what Leo is saying he knows his stuff,
Keep shorting, I'm going to enjoy watching you squeal like a pig!
I love it! In the final analysis, words that will haunt you for the rest of your life, if you are indeed following your own advice, that is...
I truly wish you the best, Leo, and I truly respect you sticking to your guns!
But you are not the contrarian you might think you are....you are the status quo, and your TA will fail you, just like it will fail all the other "I wanna be different, just like everybody else" types.
Good luck!
LEO the 200 DMA slope is what exactly?
Looking at the SPY chart, with no long or short bias, I could see the case for a bounce off the 1090-ish level.
Pretty good support there. If it holds, you would have a positive divergence with flash crash day in both trend indicators and oscillators.
If it doesn't hold, all bets off.
To be honest, I don't mind a contrarian view amongst the decidedly bearish/SHTF/gold-bug comments. And amongst the considerable research you display in your many posts and comments, I have learned a bit in balancing my own decidedly long-term bearish outlook for most of the civilized economies with more prudent assessments of short-term fluctuations amongst the various instruments you've commented on. That said, how my viewpoint effectively interacts with your assessment of shorter-term trading dynamics is not the crux of my comment.
Overlooking your air of condescension and arrogance to non-traders that post here, I haven't fully grasped why you pound the table around isolated bullish strategies. Whether its this interpretation of the 200 DMA or Chinese Solars or gold market nuances, I wonder if you have a x+year perspective that can adequately speak to the pleothera of fundamental shitstorms that are raining down on the globe. I find this odd because your adept analysis of yet another stormcloud, pension liabilities, only adds to the number and magnitude of systemic risks existing at this unique juncture in time.
If your perspective can be boiled down nothing more then "get while the gettings good" in hot sectors or markets, that's understandable. If there is actually an underlying optimism, good for you. I'd like to see it, but I don't. Whether or not your isolated bullish calls are correct or not, how do the collective systemic risks evident in nearly all quadrants of the private and public sector not spawn the blackest of swans. It seems like one standard deviation away from the clusterfuck we are going through means nothing less then disastrous social, political and economic upheaval. In that light, why play with fire with a few pips more?
Disclosure: 100% in bullion (ldo)
Leo, don't pay attention to these imbeciles... Keep up the great work,
From your #1 fan!!!
There may be 64 cases of buy signals (I don't have time to confirm it), however the last time the SPX violated the 200 DMA decisively to the downside was on 11/14/2007. The 200 DMA was still rising and would continue to into January 2008. How did that buy signal work out?
but Leo, is it technically still rising, or is it at a flat top?
I pick the average with a slope that proves my case:)
I agree that the slope of the 200 DMA is important but once it has changed to point lower, it is already below that. Also, I agree that the first test or two of the 200 DMA in an uptrend is a low-risk buy area.
To me, more important than the slope is the relative frequency an index or stock hits the 200. If it hits that level in a normal market correction - fine, especially if it rallies for the next 3 - 6 months. But if it spends a lot of time around it, that is not a good sign. Look at how much time the S&P spent around the 200 in late 2007, ultimately seeming to find resistance there in December.
Many speculators attempt to predict the market direction by using technical analysis - past stock price fluctuations as a guide. Technical analysis is based on the presumption that past share price meanderings, rather than underlying business value, hold the key to future stock prices. In reality, no one knows what the market will do; trying to predict it is a waste of time, and investing based upon that prediction is a speculative undertaking.
- Seth Klarman -
Margin of Safety
Yup, having a good day here too. Good thing im not American otherwise itd be unpatriotic :P
Save was there at 1098 on the ES_F and bouncing now... think theres more to drop today still.
Bounced almost immediately at that support. Interesting to see how she closes today ... near the lows or substantially off the lows.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDLQg8ZKBS8
We're in the pipe, five by five?
dude...we needed that lander.
now all we got is sharp sticks.
To all the imminent QE2.0 right after 3/31/10 predictors -- I'm talking to you ghostface :) -- this is the asset crash that Ben and US Gov needs.
Notice how any posts on Treasury auctions, bid-to-cover, direct vs indirect bidders, etc. get lost in the noise. 10 yr down to 3.3%. Lovely.
QE2.0 gets announced when it is time to save the world again, probably after the mid-term elections. It will be met with applause.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
This is exactly the way I saw things going down in 2010.
Now in defense of Ghostface, you needed something in Europe (or China) to go "tits up" first before the global flight to quality really got off the ground.
Now that we are here, the Treasury really needs to ramp up the new issues at the longer durations in a hurry. This isn't a door-- this is a rapidly closing window. It's no accident that gold is behaving just as well as the USD, or govt bond yields, for that matter.
And QE 2.0 will be met with relief-- not necessarily applause. In fact, the USD will be next in line to be trashed... the Germans (if indeed are pressing for Greek defaults) are accelerating the process.
It was a friendly dig at ghostface. I value his input and this is maybe a difference in journey versus destination.
I agree completely that this is a window not a door, and we should expectUSD/Treasuries to behave similar to gold from here on out -- until they don't. (Please note the change in point of reference!)
I thought about adding relief to applause in my post, LOL.
Honestly, what I am wondering is might we stabilize at a unicredit world, with USD as de facto one world currency. Could we reach an uneasy equilibrium and stay there for a while (i.e. years) before things bust loose again?
CNBS fans, time to break out your DOW 10k hats.
CNBC doesn't mention 1100 on the SPX and people around here don't mention $1200 on gold. Same thing.
LOL. Nice. You'll get flagged as junk for that, watch out.
Time to get out our 1200 gold tinfoil hats? LOL
I just gold bought today, I hope it wasn't too soon. Anyway I'm confident in the long-term trend.
Think of it like life/health insurance. It only pays off if something bad happens. But most of us have insurance.
Yup, got on board the VIXtrain at the open. Bright green lights all the way.
Where's Harry?
He's working on step 2 of the 12 step perma bull recovery program.
LMAO!
Leo's sponsor gave up on him...tough love, sometimes they have to hit rock bottom.
"Came to believe that a power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity."
Called Margin Clerks
I'm here. As I said last night, I would close my long positions if we fell below 1110 on the S&P. I did and started in on a long SDS at 33.15 this morning. I will continue to add to that as we drop further. Next stop is 1050, then 950. No dip buyers now. There's really nothing to save it.
Wow, Harry you covered a lot of the steps since yesterday.
you suck Harry lol, now we know it's time to buy when even Harry is short.....turned on a dime to go higher the second he shorted at 1100........you should have read Leo's piece on the 200 day sma
This won't be a one test bounce... we'll be sniffing around 1100 again within the hour.
not likely if it closes above 1108 its an intraday head and shoulders bottom
Hey- how do you enforce a naked short sale ban of sovereign bonds? You can short, you just can't short more than you own or what you don't own, right?
So, is the broker responsible for you proving ownership? Is it audited? Is there criminal punishment for broker?
Thanks in advance...
Just another buying oppty....if you liked the mkt yesterday, you gotta love it even more today!! ;)
Near perfect channel on the two day 5 min charts on the way down
It's the slope of the moving average that matters. I have seen prices slice through a rising MA and make higher highs.
If Rand Paul runs for president the Federal Reserve will go into panic mode and crash the markets.
Ahh but in an HFT-driven market, it's the perception OF the perception that counts!
So if algos perceive that other algos neglect the 200d MA, the 10% correction AND 1100, they'll do the opposite and SELL!
WOW. Greek 10yr at 8.19% OUCHIE! I would buy some of those if I knew Germany wouldn't stiff me LOL
Lots of bad gold news today, trying to shake everyone out of it so there won't be a run on Comex, strong hands will prevail.
+10
Spot on. The impetus was there for a real run at the Crimex next week. Can't have that!!!
Bullion banks create the illusion of "resistance" at 1250 and then pile on the sell orders into any rally. Scare out the weak longs and there you have it.
Last week: euro 1.26 gold 1240
This week: euro 1.23 gold 1190
Fundamentals in the gold market are non-existent...they don't matter. All that matters is that JPM and GS can still manipulate things to their advantage, whenever they so desire.
"All that matters is that JPM and GS can still manipulate things to their advantage, whenever they so desire."
Say what you will about China, they do some things right.
Treason should be a capital offense (don't know if it is or not, or if it is still an offense), and quite a few of our 'richest persons' should be convicted of treason.
I wonder how it will feel, a decade from now, to live in a country that has been trying to BUILD its middle class.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMyxhI_9dv64&pos=9
Huang, Once China’s Richest Person, Gets 14 Years for BriberyBy Bloomberg News
May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Huang Guangyu, the founder of Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., was sentenced to 14 years in prison for graft, completing the downfall of a school dropout who rose to become China’s richest man.
Huang, 41, was found guilty of bribery and insider trading by the Beijing No. 2 Intermediate People’s Court, Zhao Guohua and Liu Donggen, lawyers for Huang’s co-accused business partner Xu Zhongmin, said in phone interviews today. Huang was also fined 600 million yuan ($88 million), the lawyers said.
The former Gome chairman, who topped the Hurun Report’s China Rich List in 2008 with an estimated net worth of $6.3 billion, stood trial for 12 hours in a one-day hearing last month. According to the Hurun Report, 19 of 1,330 executives on its rich list in the past decade are in jail or awaiting sentencing on bribery charges....
Xu was sentenced to three years in prison and subject to 100 million yuan of fine, the lawyers said...
The CPI, IMO, is a big part of the economy lie, the pretense, that’s been keeping the market up. The point is that the trillion-dollar EU bailout signaled to everybody it was Bernanke’s last card.
From Doug Short, Monthly Inflation Update, Seeking Alpha - May 19, 2010:
The latest annualized rate is 2.24%.
The April 2010 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) is 218.009. The annualized inflation rate computed from this number is 2.24%, which marks the sixth month of mild inflation after a streak of 8 consecutive months of deflation. The annualized inflation rate of the last five months, however, is well below the 4.1% average since the end of World War II…
Alternate Inflation Data
The latest annualized rate is 9.46%.
The chart below includes an alternate look at inflation without the calculation modifications the 1980s and 1990s (Data from shadowstats.com). The Alternate CPI puts the annualized inflation rate at 9.46% for April 2010
http://seekingalpha.com/article/205831-monthly-inflation-update
Going net long for a very short-term bounce.
Making gold cheap at these panic/confusion/volatile times just makes the entrance door wider.
Maybe the should try pushing the price up high, make it expensive.
Burrrrriing... Burrrrriing... Burrrrriing...
Bernake: "Hello?"
Rahm: "You fucked up, bitch!"
Click!
Heh heh.
How nice FXCM trading desk is DOWN, gee like we didn't see that coming.
Gotta love their wording that only some clients, I bet GS and JPM are up and running.
FXCM is currently experiencing a technical issue where some clients are unable to log into their platforms. The issue is also affecting our trading desk so phone trading is temporarily unavailable. We are working to resolve this issue as soon as possible
glad to know it wasn't just mine that stopped working. I was wondering what was going on. While the system has been "down", I noticed through other websites it looks like several currencies jumped up 50-60 pips (EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY) after treading down all day. Nice entry point for the ones that can get in.
Going Long.
Did pretty well shorting for awhile, but went long Black Gold
the other day. Hopefully it wasn't a mistake...
Immelt spamming how "bright" things are going to be over at GE. I better put on my shades...
I'm so tired of the ENDLESS PUMPING!
We're not an economy anymore, we're a LIE factory. It's the only thing we produce well anymore.
LIES LIES LIES!
Sadly, I concur.
+1
The lies, pumping, and destruction will continue until the politicians are properly punished.
And that is up to us, the people. We can't get the bankster filth until they no longer can hide behind politicians, judges, legislators.
Spank the pollies good and hard, wipe them out at election time and in the months leading up to it. Expose and shame them for their records, refuse to listen to their excuses about how hard it is for their incompetence to do their dramn jobs.
The least we can do is keep up a drumbeat of discontent, unrest, and popular education. Each one of us does a little, but we can learn from the Chinese - our numbers is our strength.
Caution on the short side. The Financials are in the Green and its options expiration.
if it doesn't retest at 1098.75 it looks bad for the bearish interest. inverted head-and-shoulders on the /es 1 minute. target 1127.
Bingo ;)
Thats the PIVOT Today
I have believed all along that the real terror will come when even frustrated shorts attempt to start buying dips for quick trades because of their predictability and are burned over and over again. I refuse to buy dips primarily because I have no interest in catching that vacuum like the Flash Crash occurrence. The true drop will likely be far worse. I am also not as savvy a technical trader like many of you.
whait for the close man.
you need a close below 1100
PPT is going to make sure that we don't close below 1100 today, tomorrow or forever! Rock on, Ben!
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of homeowners who missed at least one mortgage payment surged to a record in the first quarter of the year, a sign that the foreclosure crisis is far from over.
More than 10 percent of homeowners had missed at least one mortgage payment in the January-March period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. That number was up from 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 9.1 percent a year earlier."
Man is taking fire, requesting the artillery support.
Green shoot liquidity support, arm, load, fire ! Lt. BB, the casualties are rising, move it.
"I have an idea, sir! Let's take another Census!"
you will probably get a huge rally since everyone is shorting and expecting THE Crash lol
like crashes comes when people expect.
You didn't even get the 10% correction very healthy in a BULL market
And everyone expecting to take the lows. hilarious.
Do people trading like that expect to make money ??
We got our 10% correction this morning. A little bounce here and then the downward move will pick up steam into the late afternoon. The damage is done. Any bounce here is a technical bump. The trend has shifted to a downward slide.
Harry is now all of a sudden saying market is going down? OH MY, it must be time to go long then.
Harry, stop playing with us.
+10........yes they expect to but don't
Nice call on the 1100 stick save! LOL
over all we have a big down day, move to a lower low the next day, end up with a gain by the end of the day, futures open up next day, then sell off. we don't have normal market action because of algo trading. frustrating. so down a down maybe a little today, if that is the case for sure tomm up. it's all about the futures. why do you think wkeep getting these long tails
I think we are definitely getting EUR intervention, whether they want to admit it or not, so I switched my short to long at 123.25 lets see how that plays out, got a stop in at 122.75 just to be safe. Hearing a few people clamor EUR could be pushed back to 1.30
LOL! Is there any doubt that this is the intervention!
Steady stream of bad and worse news out of Europe, rocket ride of 100s of pips in minutes and no selling allowed - if it were anything *but* intervention, would there not be even a scrap of good news, from anywhere on that continent, to justify even a few pips upward.
Who cares what they admit.
hehehe - or, maybe it was just 'ready to bounce'. Yeah, that's it.
The IMF has spoken, approving EUR as at an 'appropriate level'. Which means some little bankster in Switzerland got an attaboy and is going to be a major stallion with his plastic gf tonite.
oddly enough we now have a head and shoulders formed with a target of 1092.
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