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2011 Starts With A Bang: $4.2 Billion In OUTFLOWS From Domestic Equity Funds
Now this is just hilarious. After ICI just revised the last two data points of 2010 which were originally inflows, even if modest, to one outflow and one minimal inflow, more importantly it has disclosed the first flow of funds in 2011. And as we predicted looking at last week's inflows in taxable bond funds, the year starts with an equity outflow, confirming that the retail lemmings are really not as stupid as the Fed and the Primary Dealers believe they are. And what an outflow: at $4.2 billion, this was the largest one week outflow since early October! And yes, bond inflows have resumed as we speculated, even as the scariest indication that things are really not well persists: namely that outflows from that next domino to drop, municipal bond funds, accelerate. And when munis go, it is either a wipe out or QE3. Our money is on the latter. Oh yes, for those who have questions on who may have been buying stocks now that it is confirmed that the inflow was a fluke, please address them to Mr Frost, 9th Floor, Liberty 33, the 10th Circle of Hell (reserved for legendary market manipulators).
Weekly flows:
And what has to be the funniest chart in the world:
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i sold the last stock i had today. i'm out until there's some sort of return to a legitimate market. I got burned in the internet burst, savaged by the bank meltdown....now Bennie is trying to rape me.
Sorry dude. No go. Someone else can have the pleasure of praying for a greater fool to take their AAPL or AMZN stock.
been there, done that. not going back. buying gold. ....and silver.
and taking delivery.....
Perfect! watch it happen again, it's not the same thing again.
Rocking. Check out the gold/dow ratio. Stocks will be a steal someday - not today though. Also, check out an inflation adjusted long term chart of the DOW.
http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dj-infl.htm
Notice that the bear market in stocks is the inverse of bulls in gold and vice versa. Hard asset cycle vs paper cycle. These things are so predictable you could set your watch by them. Understanding these cycles makes investing a breeze.
I took profits last week too. I sold gold miners and energy stocks, not because they looked bad, but because I thought they would get caught up in the downwash I expect soon.
Better early than late, but you probably have a few months - once QE2 ends, the market is going to collapse worse than 2000 or 2008, IMHO.
Look at what happened last spring when QE1 ended - market started cratering almost immediately, rescued only by reinvestment of MBS principal paydowns, and then QE2.
Welcome to the club, unwashedmass.
These negative numbers would be much higher if not for the gummint sponsored investment programs where you take it hard in the ass if you want your own money out.
.....with the housing ATM out of order, I wouldn't doubt that 401k redemptions are going full tilt, tax consequences be damned. Somehow, someway the beleaguered will grab the cash to make the monthly nut and worry about Uncle Sugar's ram job later.
Right on. Even though folks don't need food and fuel, for some reason their spendthrift ways make them keep spending on such nonsense.
I dumped my 401k in November. Took the tax hit and moved on. I'm pretty sure most people changing jobs or out of work are probably opting that route immediately. Others, who are locked in because of their employers are basically screwed.
actually, you can take distributions for a kid's tuition...i am hoping to take a good chunk out sheltered that way over the next four years.
meanwhile what stays in, stays in Sprott's gold & silver funds.
fuck you Ben
College? Why waste time and money?
In the immortal words of Public Enemy, "Don't believe the Hype".
surely that money isn't used only to consume and survive. It's all invested right back into the markets...
Got to pay off those Christmas CC balances. LOL....
At present there is no reason to save in the USeless Empire. Spend it now before it evaporates or the Feral Government steals it.
You can buy PM's and stash them well, to preserve wealth...what's that one part of the three part definition of money...store of value....yeah...
I'm sure that whoever is buying all these stocks will some day find somebody to sell to .... Bueller ? Bueller ??
Musical chairs
The fed and usa treasury will buy the distressed munis from the TBTF who will acquire them for pennies on the $. Another day at the orifice.
Ok now I've caught up, largest weekly outflow since OCT is why we're only up about 15-20pts on the SPUs, I got it :)
That last chart freaks me out. Up is the new down and down is the new up. That does it. I'm drinking today. Wednesday is the new Friday. So let it be written; so let it be done.
How do ETF's factor in here? They are now a trillion dollar level. Are they included or could they be offsetting these outflows some?
http://www.ici.org/research/stats/etf/etfs_11_10
ETF inflows (ex. hybrid and bond ETF's) were $165.093 billion for 1/1/2010 - 11/30/2010. Total inflows were $195.929 billion for the same period.
Cool story about net outflows, Tyler.
The outflows are just an indication of retail investors plugging their very own deficit spending...to, of course, keep the ponzi going, if only for a little while longer.
Just keep in mind, there is no personal printing presses, hence the outflows. With everything being sold at artificial prices and the Banks being the only beneficiaries of $4 trillion in national deficit spending, and with job scarcity with no hope in sign, this year will shape up to be a doozy for outflows.
The crash is coming, then Zimbabwe everything.
Everybody is a millionaire in the utopia of Zimbabwe.
People are hunkering down. Thanks to ZH more and more are seeing the light. I told some owner dude at the liquor store about ZH. Having gone back, he said he could not believe what he was reading. He felt liberated. Welcome brother to the truth.
FYI: the Automaticearth has a great read related today.
i tell everyone i know about ZH. welcome to the truth indeed.
With all those outflows that is one helluva rally. That is truly something to behold.
No doubt, IMO the strongest bull market we'll ever see in our lifetime and the Dow & SnP's will be ATM's EOY2012. I think by then the economy may begin overheating due to all the excess liquidity going into it now. That might be a warning side to start scaling out. JMVHO.
Average Joe kicking ass and selling into strength...still. Outstanding. Keep it up. Defund criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers each and every day.
Selling in the midst of an economic recovery during one of the greatest bull markets of our lifetime? Silly, just silly.
This is bullish indeed. Should be good for another 100 points in the Dow.
laughing, yeah, Bennie Boy will push things up for another couple of hundred point, because? He just can't believe the peasantry sees thru his crap.
funny thing about not eating, being unemployed or having to pay 3.5 for gas.....
makes even the dimmest wonder just where this "recovery" is.....
No such thing as the PPT...nope...no way. The stock market reflects future expected EPS of corporations and is in no way manipulated by the government. Everyone knows the money is simply falling down from heaven.
IMO, the US Markets are and have been the most efficient on the planet. Future EPS based on the pace of the economic recovery will continue to be strong IMO. As for POMO, that's just a little icing on the cake if you're long.
Just goes to show how strong the tape is.
It just keeps rocketing up and the public remains disgusted with stock investing.
However, they are totally enamoured with sports wagering on the NFL, NBA, etc. where the odds are far worse.
Only a matter of time before these guys get sucked back into the NYSE casino.
After all the DOW components are rebranded under the name FED inc.
...yes.... they'll be back with nipples hard at Dow 8k !!
I'm all in at Dow 800.
I getting another HELOC at Dow 8.
I'd say it shows how flimsy the tape is . It continues up with poor participation .
...Castles made of sand....
What i say
Is what i know
And all i can say
Is all i've seen
Nobody knows
As well as me
That safety in numbers
Is just what it seems
It's been a hard, hard day
In my life
It's been a hard, hard day
For me
And when i walk i walk
The walk of a tired man
Talk, i talk about nothing at all
And when i see, i say it's hard to explain
What i mean
And when i walk i walk
The walk of a tired man
Talk, i talk about
Nothing at all
See, i say it's hard to explain
What i mean
To say
All i know
Is all i've seen
And what i say
Is what i mean
How can i explain
What i know
When all i know
Is all i've seen
And when i walk
I walk the walk of a tired man
Talk, i talk about
Nothing at all
Perfect. Thanks for the laugh.
Really? How so? The odds are known and understood.
Very alarming and boring at the same time. The herd just won't spook, they just politely form a line into the nice warm building never once asking "how do they get so many of us in there?".
and it takes only 1 person to notice that those shower heads in that one room aren't showerheads and the steam comming from the vents isn't steam either and you've got yourself a 5 minute animo ball.
By that time you're in the corner in the fetal position, complete with thumb in mouth.
May I use this quote?
Seems to beg the (getting to be) eternal questions...1)who is buying and 2)what are they selling to buy and 3) how much are they borrowing?
We should simply audit the Fed and find out. That'll work.
This story hasn't meant squat so why keep reporting it?
We thought you would like it because it has a chart.
Do you think that the fact that it "hasn't meant squat" might actually BE the story?
You mean how money comes out but it goes up. It is a bit strange isn't it.
It defies the laws of physics
It's got to be some kind of adanced technology indistiquishable from magic. Something like an abacuss fused with a quantum entangling photonic computer chip maded from alien technology.
And all on volume that continually
declines. 70% of what it used to be
despite HFT. So who's left in the casino?
18 primary dealers, 190 hedge funds
and Harry Wanker, the rally monkey.
There is no doubt the masses are all cashing in the last assets they have. Small non-qual MF accounts, hardship IRA distributions, seperated from service 401K's....all getting cashed in. This is desperation and a combination of some folks just had enough. Tyler's right though, the disparity in the out flows & S&P is hilarious. Next time Ben is on 60 Minutes maybe the host can print a copy and ask him about that.
Posted this yesterday but it's worth putting up again .From Jamie Saettele over at DailyFX .
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2011/01/11/011111SpecialReport.html
Thanks for posting it again. This is a great report. I learned something new.
Thanks very much for sharing.
Nice post. Thanks.
No problem . I particularly liked the mention of the chronically low ( and ever declining ) volume since the 2009 low .
Gold. Gold continues to flounder before another leg down. Thinking about a big leg, a leg the size of Italy
The total outflow on the chart is about one percent of the market's value. Among other things the ICI data does not include foreign funds buying US stocks.
That explains the market growth but does not denies the fact that stock market is not a place for peoples money anymore. China:AUBABTU (all your base are belong to us) I fear that every day of postponed economic reforms wil cost US dearly in ternl of how low the living standard will go.
Futures are -4 on the DOW and Unchanged on the SPX.
Anybody care to make a side bet with me that they'll be >+60 and +6 by the time I take a dump in the morning?
No takers? Anyone? Bueller?
+1
I might take issue with your call, Boiler. However, I see that the Roach Motel [SPY] is active...trades executed below the LOD in the after hours, resetting all momentum indicators at bottom for a potential higher open tomorrow.
I sure would like to be in the club that could get my trades in tonight below the LOD. More criminal syndicate Wall Street banker/HFT tricks. It goes on and on. I wonder how anyone really thinks that Average Joe is actually going to buy into this nonsense?
But hey, maybe one of these days, Mary Shapiro of the SEC will wrap up her meetings with L. Blankfein and J. Dimon and such regarding laws she should just forget about because they would upset Wall Street bankers. One of these days, maybe.
It wouldn't be a bad bet. POMO tomorrow and Friday. Many POMO days stocks and Treasuries open weak until after the kids at the NY Fed allow the PD's to steal money...
I'll bet my IYR puts against any tangible item.
Theta is an accelerating bitch, no?
Not only do i not want to bet against you, Because i know i will lose, But it will not happen during your dump. It will happen after my morning Jerkoff ritual.
I'm 'into' full disclosure. So, I take my dump exactly at 09:29:59 am EST...daily. I finish pinching the last loaf off at about 09:31:34 am EST. I like to make sure I can fire up the laptop and be down at least...oh...say...$500 so I do an official and authentic 'spit take' with my coffee.
It starts out with the REITs gapping up like a mother fucker...then falling deeply into negative territory...and then, finally, rallying into the close to make sure I've took it right-square-in-the-asshole.
Enjoy your jerk. At least you get some pleasure out of it.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-need-to-run-as-retail-money-returns-2011-01-12..
No wonder people are confused. Here is Market Watch's take on retail inflow/outflow. Definitely a different take.
They are probably using this data:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1315867220110114
Lipper has an entirely different view from ICI. Tyler never really acknowledges that measuring flows is actually pretty hard. The net net net of all the worldwide flows are very hard to fully capture.
Personally I doubt there is widespread chicanery but then again I only buy stocks where I can measure the return in terms of the dividend yield. I don't mess with the Netflixes or Apples of the market where manipulation would really matter.
Go to the 7:00 minute mark, Bugs gives a good impression of what Berskanky is attemting. Bad news for Ben, Bugs can break the laws of physics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm7apRfBwMc
So Doc.....what'cha printin?
Looks like bears in Asia are getting seriously fisted....
Why is this D-bag allowed to post graphics here?
My god...doesn't this shit ever get old? Who gives a fuck about this random garbage?
I actually like Robo's posts , and I'm a big time bear . Nothing wrong with having a few different perspectives/opinions on here .
Really? You're interested in these two charts....why?
Volume is abysmal ... and when the fed ends POMO. Look out below.
Until then keep running back and forth trading gathering your stash. I just hope you don't get caught on the tracks when this market comes crashing down on us all. Remember it will happen when you least expect.
Its never going to end. NEVER. I have no link, No chart. I just know. I saw it in a dream
What bears? In the market? Bears aren't in the market.
It's ok though. Those HFT computers are big time sluts and can take huge loads all over thier 10g ethernet ports. Filthy whores.
I think what we can extrapolate from this incessant outflow versus market rise are these points; -Volume has decreased with outflow -Low volume used to mean volatility -The HFT trade computers are 60-70% of the volume -Most of that above volume is just liquidity and rebate money. Fake liquidity keeps true price discovery at bay(as in stocks are worth 60% less if on a free market). If outflows are averaging 100 to 1, how is the market moving up except that liquidity bots are spoofing static prices back and forth, back and forth -Anyone(as in retail buyer) who steps into the rushing river of liquidity transactions gets scalped for a modest amount of money with spoof bids to chase -The market is being dominated by a large buyer(s) who have a mild interest in profit but not mandatory. Their main motive is maintaining a facade of a functioning market, and they will take a loss to do that -I have purchased smaller stocks and my transacted(with a limit) has often been the bid/ask price for the entire freaking day. So, who the fuck else is out there? -I have a suspicion that most retail, some banks, funds, hedgies are backing out of the market and the HFT bots are the only trading entities left. -If the above case is true, any money(4.2 billion trades a day on the NYSE average) could move this market. most of the 4.2 bill trades are just static sell and buys and zero profit or modest scalps. -POMO, QE purchases average like 1.5 bill a day, right? So, 1.5 bill could move a market with 70% volume of static, non-profit trading easily. That's a huge buyer-overwhelming for the mickey mouse purchases that go on daily -Trading banks inject a modest flow of trades a day into the bid/ask stream for static trading. Most shares are sequestered in State Street and other holding banks. If the above is true, in that most shares are being divested from normalized for-profit trading, the system can go on indefinitely with POMO injections. And hence, the "wealth effect" or price stabilization(or anti deflation in assets) can be maintained until the following: 1) The retail, for profit player comes back-Most houses are actively trying to convince their customers to load up on the major stocks like Apple(bucket shopping)-and retail players will sell in fear and greed situations 2) The banks are assaulted by the Congress, in which case all banks will start dumping to show the Congress who the Daddy is and also to maintain profits. Flash crash ensues. Not ideal for banks and unlikely. So, my point is: The stock market, from the evidence I have seen, is officially Dead and in a coma with occasional bursts of electricity to keep a pulse going in case anyone wants to come back.
The banks are assaulted by the Congress, in which case all banks will start dumping to show the Congress who the Daddy is and also to maintain profits.
At some point Congress may have to tap its inner Andrew Jackson and not care what the banks do.
Cocoablini pretty much nails it....+100
To determine if there was a bias in this ZH reporting, I took a look at the data from ICI web site.
http://ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_01_12_11
Seems like there is often an inflow into foreign equity funds counter to the outflow trend in domestic equity funds, the latter that Tyler concentrates on. So retail investors have not given up on stocks per se, just American stocks.
All that false accounting allowed by the government may be a key factor. The Fed's POMO money is likely supporting the American stock market. I suspect that the primary dealers who obtain that POMO money first include bankers who prop up each others stocks in an effort to attract (sucker) private money for capital, given many of them are insolvent.
Another factor may be the high unemployment, forcing the retail public to just cash in their stocks to substitute for lost wages. Since that will remain a factor for many years, that is a legitimate worry for long term investors in American stocks.
A key to successful stock picking in this environment is to look at the long term trends affecting your country and gear your investments toward them. With stocks, toward those sectors.
retail investors are idiots. They've been drinking too much of the "doom and gloom koolaid" If they were smart, they would have BUYING all the way up. These morons have lost billions in gains by NOT being fully invested. They're going to feel really stupid when the SPX is sitting at 1400 by year end... LOL
hmmm... or they could have been buying precious metals all the way up for the last decade and made huge gains. They are going to feel pretty stupid when gold is sitting at 2k an oz by year end... LOL
Stocks are an asset class as are cash and bonds, real estate, precious metals and collectibles.
After a bout of hyperinflation, stocks manage to hold more value than either cash or bonds. I'm not saying this as a proponent of rigged markets but stocks can represent ownership of tangible goods; oil, timber, productive assets and distribution networks. A consequence of any significant inflation is that depreciation factors don't allow accumulation of sufficient capital to replace worn out equipment. The market should have collpased months ago but at a certain point going forward the Helio-Ben market might make sense, becasue the $ isn't worth a
warm fart.
Tyler had a post today discussing the POMO schedule. Looks like every trading day but 2 for the next month will have a POMO. Altho the market has rocketed off the August lows, it shows no signs of wanting to go down, at all. Unfortunately, the same can be said for commodity prices. The Fed will pop this asset bubble (or try to) after QE2. Would seem reasonable to stay long until the markets begin anticipating the end of QE. Politics being what they are the Fed seems to be looking to strike a balance between asset inflation (which they deem good) and commodity inflation (which is rapidly becoming bad). The powers that be have got to get the economy moving or people "feeling better" in time for the 2012 elections.
So just follow the Fed money machine for your cues.
How though? Unlike the other bubbles, which can be created or destroyed by adding or withdrawing liquidity, the demand for food can't exactly be suppressed by any amount (or lack of) printing of money.
So unless the Federal Reserve is going to get out there and pay farmers to start producing a lot more, they can't do squat, jack-shit about food prices.
Of course, in the absence of the Federal Reserve paying farmers to produce more, certainly, the market will take care of that problem itself.
You seriously don't think the fed wouldn't dump all 43 million food stamp recipients just to manipulate markets? They may have softened since 1933 but I think they'd do it just based on things like vietnam, iraq, iran, 9-11. They seem pretty fucking mean to me.
Somebody is lying!
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — It was bound to happen. U.S. stocks have finally been feeling a bit of love from retail investors who had shunned them for eight straight months.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-need-to-run-as-retail-money-returns-2011-01-12
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