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2011 Year End Gold At $1,630...Sub $1,000... Or Entering A Diamond Top?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With gold poised to close 2010 a hair's breath away from its all time nominal high price, all those who had been calling for a major correction in the gold metal "just around the corner", have been completely discredited. In fact, what may come as a surprise to many, gold is Reuters' best performing asset class of the year, well above the Nasdaq, and nearly doubling the S&P performance YTD. Yet the fact that gold continues to be a risk hedge as we suggested first about 6 months ago, has not deterred the empty chatterboxes from providing empty predictions: ten days ago we provided Doug Kass' prediction that gold is about to tumble. Granted our read of his "analysis" was one that suggest a jump in the price of gold was imminent. Sure enough, gold since then surged by nearly $50. And with global central banks having to beat their heads over the issue so well encapsulated by John Taylor, namely that global assets barely generate enough cash to service global debt, lat alone retire it, the only long-term outcome will be one of continued fiat devaluation and appreciation in hard currencies such as gold and silver (naturally with bouts of marked volatility, where one will be able to BTFD). So where will gold end 2011? Here are some more respected pundits' views on what may happen to gold in the coming year.

First, we present the YTD performance of various asset classes as compiled by Reuters:

In terms of gold upside, Tom Kendall of Credit Suisse, who has been the most accurate forecaster of gold in 2010, sees gold closing 2011 at $1,630: a return which should leave relative stock performance in the cold:

Gold may climb as high as $1,630 an ounce next year as investors seek protection from financial turmoil in Europe and the U.S. and as Chinese demand rises, according to Tom Kendall, the most accurate forecaster for 2010.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows gold’s 26 percent gain this year and the Dec. 7 record of $1,431.25 an ounce. The metal may climb as much as 18 percent in 2011, said Kendall, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG in London. In this year’s London Bullion Market Association survey, Kendall predicted this year’s high within 0.1 percent. The red line shows the median forecast of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for next year’s average price, currently $1,400.

“We’re still in an era of unusual financial market instability and stress,” said Kendall, who was at Mitsubishi Corp. (U.K.) Plc when he made his gold forecast for the LBMA. “We’re going to stay with very low to negative interest rates in real terms and that’s also very supportive for gold.”

In China “there’s increasing imports of gold and a real boom in retail investment in physical gold there,” Kendall said. “Inflation is definitely playing into the market” in China, he said.

Elsewhere, Laura Gross of the Best Bullion Blog does her own summary of where some of the more prominent names in the gold space see the shiny metal closing next year:

Jim Sinclair also believes that gold will trade close to $1650.  James Turk remains slightly more bullish and predicts gold to move as high as $1800 during the first quarter of 2011.  This is certainly possible if interest rates remain low and if the dollar continues to weaken.  Turk has also noted that the physical market remains extremely tight, so it will be more difficult for short sellers to maintain as much control as they’ve had in the past.  It is important to remember, however, that there are enormous deflationary forces weighing on the economy.  As esteemed bank analyst Chris Whalen has cautioned, the banks have only foreclosed on 25% of their distressed assets.  The mortgage resets that come due over the next two years will continue to put downward pressure on the real estate market and the US economy.

This means a tug of war between deflation and inflation over the next couple of years is possible.  We should also expect the Federal Reserve to respond to any deflation with additional money printing.  While the Fed would like the public to believe its role is to maintain a stable currency, it has demonstrated instead that it will sacrifice the dollar to protect the banks.  Currently, the Fed is flooding the financial system with $75 million a month as part of its quantitative easing program.  The inflation the Fed wants to create is meant to help the banks; the fed does not want deflation because this increases the real value of debts.  This increases the likelihood of defaults, which shifts wealth from the creditors to the debtors.  Since the Fed wants to transfer wealth to the banks, it will continue its inflationary policies that will further weaken the dollar.

While deflationary forces and rising interest rates may hold gold and silver back over the next couple of years, the long-term trend for both metals is bullish, and it is likely that inflation will drive both metals much higher since the Fed has given no indication that it will end its money printing policies.

Yet not all is smooth sailing for the chartists. We present the view of Abigail Doolittle from Peaks Research who notes that gold may be undergoing what she calls "a Diamond Top – if it is, in fact, such a pattern – and it is both relatively uncommon and most often a bearish pattern that signals a reversal to a downtrend."

 

Then again, all technicals and fundamentals go out of the window when one is dealing with a room of 10 people, making all the financial and economic decisions for the entire "free" world. Which is why we tend to not engage in long-term prophecies. As long as the voice of the market is subdued by those who can ravage the purchasing power of the middle class unchecked, and print their way out of any incremental mistake their actions lead them to, the likely outcome will probably be the opposite of what actually transpires. As such, until the USSR moment arrives for our own little Eccles politbureau, gold will do whatever it has to do, as the only alternative to central banker lunacy. See you in one year when gold is much higher once again.

 

 

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Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:25 | 837618 jaap
jaap's picture

Missing Silver in the Reuters table

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:31 | 837631 The Grifter
The Grifter's picture

Media likes to conveniently ignore the best performing asset of 2010.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:38 | 837646 umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

Yet another reason for me to conveniently ignore the media. Viva Zero Hedge!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:06 | 837715 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

I would be surprised if Gold and Silver are even priced in USD's at the end of 2011 and if they are, few would accept them in exchange for physical..   Way too many eggs in the air right now.  TPTB didn't set-up all these fireworks with no intent of lighting them off..

The world is their stage..

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:02 | 837867 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

A worth a thousand words:   

http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=17 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:35 | 837984 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

great page.. thanks

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:35 | 837809 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

You're more likely to find depictions of Muhammad in mainstream media than discussions of silver.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:00 | 838045 akak
akak's picture

"Silver: the other kooks' metal."

 

(That's the lamestream media's take on it, NOT mine!)

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 15:11 | 838193 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Hahaha! Yep

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 16:27 | 838354 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

dude, jesse had a awesome write up yesterday that reminded me of you:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/12/gold-daily-and-silver-w...

happy new year to you and yours.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 18:24 | 838618 akak
akak's picture

Thanks E! 

Yeah, I read that article by Darryl Schoon yesterday, laughing during the whole thing too!

I used to wish that more high-profile commentators and analysts would take that despicable propaganda artist Nadler to task for his many egregious lies and pro-bankster apologies, but I now just see him as little more than a spoiled and tormented child daily throwing a tantrum as his paper Ponzi world is discredited and destroyed bit by bit in front of his eyes.  Reality is the best revenge.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:30 | 838991 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

"Reality is the best revenge."

well, until the suddenly awakened, fiat-starved zombie hoard starts eyeballing you, too.

after going out into the community and talking to people,

i don't think this is going to be pretty in anyway, for anyone, whatsoever. 

but again, 

happy new years to you and yours :-D

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:36 | 837643 breezer1
breezer1's picture

my #1 silver play is SLX on the TSX, worth a look, still cheap.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 15:10 | 838196 flacon
flacon's picture

1.42% dividend is nice. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:04 | 837707 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Along with the soft commodities - Cotton, corn, wheat, etc....

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:29 | 838989 espirit
Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:27 | 837621 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or, gold worth essentially nothing because by 2011 end its been outlawed to trade or possess in Bananamerica?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:52 | 837673 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Huh, funny how there is still a drug trade.  Thought that was illegal, must have just been the movies.

Also in the case of a outlaw, watch the gold flow out of the country.  In 33 a fair amount of gold migrated to Canada.  And for the funny an outlawing of gold would force a tumble in the dollar.  Might as well have Zimbabwe Ben on 60 Minutes saying "I'm trying to cause hyperinflation.  I won't rest till 100 trillion dollars won't by a gram of sugar".  Besides gold ownership in the US is lightly held, they can take most of it via GLD anyway, assuming GLD actually has any.

The conficastion/outlaw card has been played out.  Hurts them a lot worse then just trying to ignore it.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:13 | 837739 duo
duo's picture

A gold outlaw event would be a great trigger for China to announce gold backing for the RMB.  Anyone who shows up at a PRC consulate or embassy can exchange gold for RMB.  NOw that would be fun to see.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:36 | 837795 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

You cannot outlaw, or render worthless by government decree, a commodity valued throughout the world, and traded internationally.

We are entering a stage where the strengthening of our countries historical rivals is a benefit to the true patriots of the united states; i.e. we the people. We the people, who are just trying to survive the collapse of a government that is grasping into the darkness to survive.., and seeking to destroy the residents of the United States.

The emergence of alternative powers and political views to the united states government are becoming the ally of the few americans who are watching closely; standing against a corrupted banker owned conglamorate of self interest and self preservation, without liberty and injustice over all.

Pity.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:53 | 837866 BearOfNH
BearOfNH's picture

I wonder if Ashton Kucher has a stash of physical gold stored in a safe deposit box somewhere in Canada or England.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:14 | 837920 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep theres still a drug trade, govt sees to that with its $500 billion/year Afghani farming operations. But gold and silver is merely shiny and fun to look at....cant mainline it or snort or smoke it.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:15 | 838086 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But gold.......cant mainline it....

Well, not exactly. One of the older treatments for Rheumatoid Arthritis was injections of Gold. I kid you not.

http://www.hopkins-arthritis.org/arthritis-info/rheumatoid-arthritis/rheum_treat.html

Gold is effective in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis when it is given intramuscularly. Intramuscular gold salts were, until the 1990's, the most often used DMARD agents but have been replaced by Methotrexate and other DMARDS as the preferred agents to treat RA. Two injectable compounds are available, (Myochrysine® and Solganal®). Gold compounds are rarely used now due to their numerous side effects and monitoring requirments, their limited efficacy, and very slow onset of action. An oral gold compound (Auranofin®) is also available but its efficacy is even more limited than injectable compounds.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:27 | 838116 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

and of course, they used to give the IM injections in the glutes, leading to one of our pharmacology professors in med school exclaiming, "There's gold in them thar hills!" :-)

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 16:48 | 838420 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

mike burry, that u???

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 18:07 | 838526 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

“older treatments” … ehh

On Saturday, July 07, 1928, a U.S. federal trademark registration was filed for SOLGANAL. This trademark is owned by SCHERING-KAHLBAUM A. G.. The USPTO has given the SOLGANAL trademark serial number of 71269264. The current federal status of this trademark filing is EXPIRED (11/3/1992).

Those pharmaceuticals are not nearly as intriguing as The ORME.

The ORME -- related to Star Fire, and also known as The Philosopher’s Stone, the Elixir of Life, the White Powder of Gold, Ma-na or Manna -- is also an acronym for “Orbitally Rearranged Monoatomic Elements”. The phrase was coined by David Radius Hudson, who has done an enormous amount of research on the subject (of which he has in turn shared with thousands of others). The word ORME -- perhaps coincidentally, or perhaps not -- is the same as the Hebrew word which means: the “Tree of Life”.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 18:11 | 838533 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

arg, web gremlins ...

The ORME!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 19:03 | 838653 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Gold and silver are the antidope.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:51 | 837675 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

The result of a prohibition on trading gold would cause the relative value of Gold to increase like it does with any prohibited substance. For example the War on Drugs has not decreased the use or availability, it has only increased the price of drugs. In addition, the War caused the violent death of tens of thousands on the border, but I guess in a War there is always collateral damage.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:14 | 837744 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Silver will be declared a strategic metal at some point.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:35 | 837807 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

platinum has a far greater chance of being declared a strategic metal. it was in WW II.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:21 | 837941 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"Or, gold worth essentially nothing because by 2011 end its been outlawed to trade or possess in Bananamerica?"

No, actually i'm good to go with it...

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:27 | 837623 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

didn't anyone ask blythe masters her prediction?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:29 | 837626 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh, also this article is another shining example of analysts analyzing a T/A chart, and dont even mention massive manipulation of what theyre looking at. How can you then conclude anything at all?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:59 | 837695 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I'm certainly no chart expert, and would never doubt their TA prowess, but how one concludes a diamond formation from connecting dots like that is totally beyond my comprehension. Really, I mean just pick any dots and connect them, and you can come up with just about any shape or figure you want. By changing just slightly the point of a couple of those lines, I was able to make out the shape of my pet gold fish that passed 43 years ago. Go figure.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:45 | 837837 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

You can also easily see the outline of God's face on the GS chart if you pick the right dots and lines.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:13 | 837911 Eric The Red
Eric The Red's picture

Or maybe baby Jesus in an eggo waffle.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:06 | 838053 akak
akak's picture

I made a grilled cheese sandwich in which an image of the Virgin Mary magically appeared.  It made a perfect complement to the rusty Jesus on the side of my old refrigerator.

My home is now a shrine and place of pilgrimage.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 16:51 | 838434 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

I'm waiting for the broccoli formation before I decide to sell.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:30 | 837633 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

going back to 250 baby, you heard it here first. Well you actually been hearing this from me for years....

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:38 | 837645 Arius
Arius's picture

thats true (unfortunately?)

however, i for one respect a man (1)who stands by his beliefs (any?) or (2) just simply plain incompetence?

if i had to bet not sure which one...nadler comes accross as cocky and incompetent who at some extent believes the mantra...

funny w/ these banks all are finally seeing higher prices next year...until couple of years ago, everyone for years wrongly predicted year after year that gold will come down next year...i guess nadler has plenty of company although he gets paid to throw mud over his name

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:57 | 837688 MichaelNY
MichaelNY's picture

http://silverenthusiast.com/kitcos-nadler-problem/ is an analysis of Kitco's "Nadler problem" and the comments are particularly telling.

 

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:13 | 837913 Arius
Arius's picture

nicely put - thanks for sharing...

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:11 | 837731 tsx500
tsx500's picture

o.j.  was framed

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:18 | 837756 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Which time?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:41 | 837824 velobabe
velobabe's picture

hey, westie. west is the best†

guess what an OJ in golf is?

when you flub a shot, but it still goes towards the hole soooooo

you got away with it.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:31 | 838125 viahj
viahj's picture

going back to 250 baby, you heard it here first. Well you actually been hearing this from me for years....

SDRs maybe...US$?.... never

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:23 | 838986 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

SDRs maybe...US$?.... never

Maybe after a 1000-to-one dollar devaluation?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 19:23 | 838669 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

this is what I predicted in the past?

 


 


In November 2006,

he predicted in 2010 gold would average $800.


 

In October 2008,

he predicted gold would be in the low $500 an ounce range in 2010.


 

 

 

In May 2010 (with gold at $1200), He predicted the 2010 price would end [lower] …gold at the $800 per ounce figure. I am not alone in computing such figures. I still think..between $680 and $880.he predicted “With a view to the three-year average gold price still near $845

  


From 2006 to 2010, Nadler predicted the price of gold would be in the low $500s to the high $800s today, a spread of approximately $400, the mean being approximately $700.

 

 

Aww come now so i made a couple of bad calls that cost the poor idiots that listened to me dearly. But hey am still on Bloomberg  and CNBC and you're not!

 

http://www.drschoon.com/articles/GoldBearsPredictingThePriceOfGold.pdf

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:34 | 838993 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

that's cool.  

you don't need the fame when you have the metal.

Kitco?

Nadler?

Bueler?

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 17:14 | 838481 Client 9
Client 9's picture

Close 2011 <$1000.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:32 | 837634 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Then again, all technicals and fundamentals go out of the window when one is dealing with a room of 10 people, making all the financial and economic decisions for the entire "free" world.

One doesn't really need to go much further than this statement. My head spins everytime I think how often we were told in the 70's and 80's that those Godless Russian and Chinese commie's were doomed to failure because of their "planned" economies. Silly rabbit, everyone knows you can't "plan" human nature.........unless you're the Central PLanning Division of the Federal Reserve. Then it all makes perfect sense.

Quiet! Genius At Work.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:53 | 837681 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I love the idea of 10 people in a room.  A few weekends I was in a room with about 10 people.  It was a little pre-Christmas get together.  There were several adults and then a friend had his 2 kids there.  We asked the kids what they wanted for Christmas.  His 5 year old daughter was too shy to say much of anything.  The 8 year old boy didn't say much either.  His mom did tell everybody in the room that her son was asking for gold for Christmas.

That drew a good chuckle from everyone except from me and another buddy that know my thoughts on the disastrous economic situation. 

It is pretty sad that the 8 year old got it and the 40 year olds didn't.  I can guarantee you that none of the people that laughed own so much as 1/4 of an ounce of gold.  And yet I keep hearing how this is a bubble.  It was in crowds like this in 2006 that I got laughed at for insisting that housing was in a bubble.  At that time people like us were alone on our thoughts on housing.  Today we are still generally alone on our thoughts on metals.  That is my biggest indicator of bubble status.  I don't need Mario BlowJobLips or Jim Cram-it-in-my-rear to tell me which side is up.  Dollars are for today.  Gold and silver are for tomorrow.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:04 | 837706 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The reason the young almost always are the (thought and scientific) pioneers is because they haven't quite fully accepted their social programming and conditioning as to what is "obviously" impossible. Thus those who truly think outside of the box are the people who haven't been shoved into theirs yet.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:57 | 837879 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Or, more accurately in this instance, the children are simply the mouth puppets of the parent(s)'.  Reminds me of my wife talking about viewing the Angel Tree and seeing christmas wants from 1 year olds for ipads, mp3 players, and other eletronic equipment vastly too complicated for a <1 year old to understand (aside from the fact that the 1 year old wouldn't be filling out the card).

So how did the kids hear about gold?  They been reading ZH?  If they are that smart at 5, then you don't need to worry about gold except as a store of something to keep those kids alive no matter what happens...  because those little bastards are going to produce a shit ton of money in the future...  the opportunity will exist for them to break through the glass ceiling, I can assure you.

Yes, it's always funny when the kids say the darndest things because they haven't been taught to hold their tongues yet...  but these kids are just parrots in this case.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:35 | 837978 Arius
Arius's picture

+++ best post ever!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:10 | 837728 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

+100

LOL.., btw...I can only assume that you meant Maria and not Mario ; -)

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:18 | 837752 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I guess it was my subconscious since she is starting to look like a man as she ages. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:08 | 837829 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yeah, I can see the resemblance. :>)

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 22:04 | 838909 rocker
rocker's picture

But his ass is too skinny.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:35 | 838995 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

nah, she's just really sad, despite the botox.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:33 | 837635 mikla
mikla's picture

And with global central banks having to beat their heads over the issue so well encapsulated by John Taylor, namely that global assets barely generate enough cash to service global debt, lat alone retire it, the only long-term outcome will be one of continued fiat devaluation and appreciation in hard currencies such as gold and silver (naturally with bouts of marked volatility, where one will be able to BTFD).

Since we hear what we want to hear, clearly this is the message:

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:49 | 837844 watchingdogma
watchingdogma's picture

I want one of those t-shirts with the bear in the background screaming - can someone work on that?

Now that I'm thinking about it - they would have made great holiday gifts...

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:55 | 837876 mikla
mikla's picture

The acronym has also been used in the online/gaming world for, "Bow the f* down" and "Beat the f* down":

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=BTFD

However, apparently there are a couple purchase options available (I like your idea of a screaming bear background, or other financial background):

http://booasu.com/?page_id=12

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:32 | 837638 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

The commissars are trying to avoid any outliers, as discussion of exactly why silver has been so cheap for so long and is only now breaking out leads one very very far down the rabbit hole . . . .

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:34 | 837640 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

This report is bullshit.

Gold has an average annualized return of about 25% since this bull market began. Absolutely no reason not to expect similar returns in 2011. $1400 + 25% = $1750

Lots of volatility in silver today and tomorrow. Blythe is going to fight tooth and nail to get it back under $30 before the close tomorrow. Think about it...if she's unsuccessful, silver will finish the week, the month and the year over $30.

A very interesting fight to the finish. More here:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:40 | 837652 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


"In Jackson [Wyoming], the market doesn't really go down," said (realtor) Linda Walker. Broker Ryan Olsen agrees. "We are immune to the up and down treads that plague many real estate markets," he says. "Our real estate market is essentially quite 'bullet proof'!"

 

-"Un-Real Estate" by Jake Nichols

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:51 | 837672 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

So everything is a real estate bubble. Even AIG? lulz

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:52 | 837676 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

That bubble has popped (aig) i'm buying low, moron.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:42 | 837826 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sort of like how the real estate and stock bubbles have popped completely, and the lows have definitely come and gone and the economy is looking up?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:53 | 837865 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

AIG up 10% in last few days, 30% over the last month. 

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 15:52 | 838281 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, on no fundamentals.  Can you say bubble?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Gold and silver are buoyed by an array of fundamentals that are so bullish, you couldn't stop its rise with a trillion dollars of POMO!

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:00 | 837696 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

DXY 80!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:41 | 837653 nmewn
Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:06 | 837709 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

The mint produces three kinds of silver eagles: The "proof" coin (most expensive), the "uncirculated" coin, and the production coin, which they are required by law to produce in quantities sufficient to meet public demand.  Don't ask me what the difference between the "uncirculated" and production coin are, I don't know.

As long as they don't suspend the production silver eagles, they're not breaking the law.  The other stuff is optional.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:07 | 837714 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Stale, APMEX is taking Pre-Orders now.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:39 | 837814 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Thanks to you both...seen it on Harvey Organs blog and remembered them suspending a month or so ago.

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:43 | 837657 Arius
Arius's picture

its so much the poor woman can do...after all she is only human and every day is another crisis she has to keep up w/  :-)

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:45 | 837659 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Turd,  you touch on an interesting subject.  The psychology of investing is such that the numbers and dates matter.  Then again, do they?  An Oz is an Oz....Blythe is spinning her wheels.  Me, I love to watch the wheels turn, and I will watch until the wheels fall off!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:08 | 837718 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

This BTFD in silver game is FUN once you learn how to play!  I am just having a wonderful end to the year, thank goodness!

To anyone from Blythe's desk at JPM who might be reading this, I want to shout out to you and say "that's all you got, BITCHEZ?!?!?!   Seriously, is this all you got?!  Are you telling me you can't break $30?  FUCK YOU BIATCHES!  Go back to hell from whence you came!"

oh, and Happy New Year!

 

 

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 19:36 | 838711 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

"""To anyone from Blythe's desk at JPM who might be reading this......"""

 

+infinity

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:11 | 837726 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Gold has an average annualized return of about 25% since this bull market began. Absolutely no reason not to expect similar returns in 2011. 

That's an exceptionally dangerous mentality, Turd.  What was the annualized return of the GSCI for the five years prior to the 08 collapse?

When you hear, there is absolutely no reason not to expect 25% returns.... is when you know the trade will end in tears.

Before you buy gold at $1400, you should find out why oil traded in the stratosphere in 08, despite the fact that we were already 6 months into the worst worldwide economic collapse since the Great Depression. If you can answer this question and still feel good about commodities and speculation, then buy your ticket to expected 25% returns.  

 

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:43 | 837831 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Has Ben Bernanke been hung in the street by a lynch mob?  Must have missed the news.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:10 | 837906 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

@woody woodpecker, aka tmosley

There is only one sure thing:  every market will lure you to sleep with a false sense of security and safety.  Then, when enough people are under the ether, that particular market will move in the path of the most destruction - works every time. The only real money that is ever made is where no one is looking. 

When I hear someone expecting 25% returns, I think about ether.  

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:27 | 838096 akak
akak's picture

I think the problem lies in the fact that all of the above posters are viewing gold through a bullshit, ponzi-tinted lens.  It is my belief that gold (and silver) are NOT in any sort of "bull market", particularly as compared to the highly leveraged, bubble-bath stock and real estate markets in the last 20 years, but that the precious metals are instead undergoing a fundamental revaluation as the whole fraudulent and unsustainable paper financial and monetary system dies an agonizing and drawn-out death.  This is a value revolution, NOT a "bull market"!  (Much as the 16th century saw a similar, but directionally opposite, value revolution in the precious metals due to the vast amounts dumped into the European economy from the looted riches of the New World.)  As such, any comparisons to prior bull markets are meaningless.

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 17:25 | 838503 Client 9
Client 9's picture

Exactly. A paradigm shift. Just like the tech bubble.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 18:20 | 838603 akak
akak's picture

The dynamics of a paradigm shift do not include overleveraged and speculative mania, nor a financial elite in whose self-interest it is to fund and encourage that mania.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 17:53 | 838553 Client 9
Client 9's picture

Exactly. A paradigm shift. Just like the tech bubble.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 15:58 | 838297 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Contrarianism doesn't work when the market is controlled by ten men in a room.  What is so hard to understand about that?  When you know these guys are going to print until they have utterly destroyed confidence in the currency, the path ahead is extremely clear.  He who panics first, panics best, as they say.

But then, I guess it's hard for you to understand anything, what with all the man glue you have in your eyes from constantly fellating any authority figure that steps into the room.  Might I suggest you go long goggles?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 16:56 | 838453 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

"Might I suggest you go long goggles?"

Post of the fucking day.  [clap, clap, clap]

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 22:25 | 838927 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

There you go again...talking about sodomy and homosexuality for no reason whatsoever.  It seems to be a very popular topic for you - one that you use everyday in the most bizarre contexts imaginable. 

Did you not read my post from yesterday about you? The post under the woodpecker one. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:09 | 838975 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

dang, dadt passes and you still have antses in your pantses.  go figure. - Ned

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 01:38 | 839085 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Hey Ned

Nowhere in the story did a little piggy surf the internet.  Go help your brother carry some grains out of the market. 

Wee Wee Wee

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:25 | 837777 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They blew up a lot of ammo for christmas. Doesn't look good for them. They usually use tons more ammo in january trying to hold it for the summer drop but I don't think they are gonna make it.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:39 | 837642 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gold is going to crush the markets next year.  I would not be surprised if the financial system took lumps from MUNIs, Europe, Bac Fraudclosure, JPM Silver Manipulation, etc, etc.  $5K is not out of the question.  Most likely gold doubles, give or take a litttle.  Silver will once again dominate all comers.  Paltinum could out do both, as it is below its nominal high.

These markets are tiny in physical compared to the bond market, the 4X, and equities.  If money flows in, it could be a new monied world overnight.

I called today's consolidation last night.  I expect a huge move up in January.  We will break $1500 in a matter of a few good days.

Same As It Ever Was:

http://lhmarketwatch.blogspot.com/

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:52 | 837679 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

I don't know if it will happen next year, but I fully agree at some point the rush to gold in particular but all hard assets in general, will be shock and awe. As noted here and elsewhere, very few funds hold much gold, very few gringos, Asians more but they aren't exactly wealthy.

Who owns the gold? Central banks. Governments. How odd, for such as useless barbaric. How very odd.

There will conme a point when it will be in their interests to see a major reset upwards, way upwards in gold- easiest way to devalue fiat and poof goes the debts.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:57 | 837690 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Exactly.  There will be a day when, as the demonish Soros said, "Gold is the ultimate bubble."  And to clarify, 'ultimate' meaning 'final'.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:20 | 837762 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

I called today's consolidation last night.

We need to be clear on something, Hendrix: your predictions are probably the worst ever documented on the internet. 

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:36 | 837979 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Damain Marley says, "We are going to make it."  I believe him. 

When you first started posting here I had hope for you, maybe I put too much credience that you would topple the red nicked republicants.  It shouldn't have been a hard target for you.  The conservative base of America is endowed with the correct economic reasoning.  A federal government as large as those entraping the world, do not function cordinatedy, so, they should not collect taxes.  How far to take this is one thing, as maybe it would benefit to have a federal government collect taxes on international imports.

Anyway, other than that resnublicans are no better than libtraders.  Both parties fund war, support horrible doemstic policy such as the GMO food scandel, the war on drugs, the war on terror and they suck bankster toes.  Neither party have a sense of art and treat our schools of education as prison camps.  Many people lack deep thought, and are usualy rude when it comes to discussing all of this, namely politics.  They are the people who make up whatever collective it is of people that totally stink. 

You know what I like about children?  They have open minds.  They are able to look for the answers more easily because they are not blinded by the past.  But experience is what builds towards the future, and we have to try and answer questions.  Nobody has all the answers but together we can try.  And we must try.  We have no other choice.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:54 | 837872 velobabe
velobabe's picture

jimi, what would your take be on gold jewelry. if the jeweler had to pay so much more for his gold and silver supply? it would hurt his business, right? he would have to charge more for the jewelry and that would make it cost prohibitive for customers to afford. i suppose it would be good for the past purchasers.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:08 | 837899 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The cost increase will not affect the net gain as long as there is demand for the product.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:12 | 837914 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

I've wondered about this Soros quote but haven't seen anyone question it.  MSM journos frequently cite Soros's quote as a warning, but he more than likely is using "ultimate" to mean "last/final."

P.S. Long time lurker, first time poster. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:46 | 838013 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Welcome Richard.  I know your cousin, a Mr Head.  He is a funny guy.

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:57 | 837691 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Step 1: Save 10 dollars

Step 2: Spend 2 or 3 of those dollars on gold, silver, platinum and palladium

Step 3:  Pour yourself a nice drink

Step 4:  Go to bed

The alternative is to place a big part of your future in real estate and sweat like hell that housing has really bottomed.  Lay awake at night knowing that you can't move because the house is worth less than you paid. 

It is too bad that 95% of our fellow citizens still choose the second way. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:01 | 837702 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It is too bad the US government owns 95% of their mortgages.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:09 | 837719 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

That means that you and I own 95% of their mortgages.

I think the real estate mess has kept Johnny Lunch Bucket from buying metals due to psychological reasons.  Johnny sees metals the way he saw his house.  He believes that you have to leverage up, go into a huge hole and risk everything.  We know different.  We know that you protect yourself by saving some dollars for today and then spending a portion on metals for tomorrow. 

If gold or silver were to crash tomorrow I would not be out of a place to live.  If I were to lose my job I would not be out of a place to live.  I put excess savings away.  There is no leverage.  There is no solvency risk with the fluctuation of metals.  The leveraged up house buyers can't understand this concept.  That is what is keeping them out.  They have watched too much World Series of Poker and believe they have to go "all in" to be in at all. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:15 | 837922 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Johnny filled his Lunch Bucket with Fast Food.  No nutrition there!  The dollar is the same as the fast food.  Monie has not been stored but destroyed!  Now the wealth creattion flows back toward real minie, gold.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:46 | 839009 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Johnny filled his Lunch Bucket with Fast Food.  No nutrition there!  The dollar is the same as the fast food. 

Yeah, if the fast food had been full of rat poison! Which the dollar truly is now, rat poison.

Get rid of it before you get a toxic dose.

May I suggest silver, female dogs?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:45 | 837836 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Well the problem is what do you do when you run out of "traditional" money. So ya it's going to be a mess and will likely spill all over the copper palladium platinum rare earths and comodities markets.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:12 | 837909 Strider52
Strider52's picture

I've been hanging onto this snicker's bar, the last one from Halloween. I'm going to eat it when gold hits $1440, since this will be a double-up for me. I thought I was going to be eating it sooner than this, I may have to trash this one and buy a new candy bar, but being a gold+silver bug, I have patients.

Chocolate, bitchez!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:47 | 838149 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I love chocolate.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:36 | 837644 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

STFR! Whatever happens, buy the dips in Physical PMs and SELL THE FUCKING REST!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:39 | 837649 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ah, gold.  The juggernaut in 2010.  Look at how the S&P borrowed from gold's success...even though gold is a bet against the S&P in the broadest sense.  Funny how Wall Street perverted gold in this ironic way.

Which brings us to oil.  Today would be a good day for SEC agents to take a break from porn and pay attention to the oil market.  Since banks are now sucking wind again, and leadership stocks continue to look bleak, and no one has any real good ideas [since nothing in the market is real], something tells me that criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers are going to look to oil to save them from today's ACTUAL SELLING [cdad claps for the bears]. 

Yep, all we need today are some doctored up oil inventory numbers, some monkey business in the oil futures and...presto...rally on!  Who cares about what Average Joe has to pay at the pump, right?

Never mind that oil is entirely disconnected from known market forces...thank you B. Bernanke.  Petroshrimp anyone?

Will someone in Congress please just turn a fire hose on Wall Street?  Thank you.

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:46 | 837661 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The financial system relies on gold, now more than ever because of the banks horrible ledgers.  Bank equity relies on precious metal, and so then does the equity market.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:47 | 837665 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I don't understand making price predictions. Since I started measuring everything in ounces, not dollars, I don't care about dollar price either.

Happy new year bitchez.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:12 | 837729 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

And some of the best investments can be measured in mili-liters. 

Single malt, bitchez. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:47 | 837666 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

With regard to the diamond top pattern which may materialize there are two items to note.  One, the pattern is not evident in silver which makes me hesitant to believe gold would correct severely without a commensurate decline in its sister metal.  Two, a diamond top normally implies a downward move to the price level where the upward move began which is probably around the $1,200 to $1,250 level.  Anything is possible and this type of correction would be a buying opportunity all else equal.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:48 | 837667 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Blythe trying real hard this morning, but someone is buying the dips.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:58 | 837692 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I find it interesting that those Zero Hedgers who tell us to just Buy The F**king Dip in the stock market laugh at our stupidity when we Buy The F**king Dip in Precious Metals. The dynamic that supports the stock market also supports the PM market.

That dynamic is of course FRN bubble blowing via Fed pumping.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:23 | 837766 mikla
mikla's picture

Agreed, this is a funny observation.  (Not "haha" funny, but "Does this fish smell funny to you?" funny.)

Most fundamentally, PMs are speculation against present-and-future Fed/Treasury (Treserve) actions.  They are not investments.  They are speculative hedges.  Unfortunately, anything you do in the Stock and Bond market these days similarly is not investment:  All stock/bond transactions today are similarly speculative hedges.

For "investment" to occur, there must be a defined earnings path.  That absolutely does not exist on anything sold in any market today.  Thus, anyone claiming to "invest" these days does not understand, or is lying.

IMHO, the ultimate conclusion will be nobody buying anything.  True capitulation.  It's easy to do if you don't have a job (so no disposable income).

There are some other universal truths that people would be advised to understand:

  • Buying something means "going long" on that something at the current market price.
  • Selling something means "going short" on that something at the current market price.
  • Holding something means "going long" on that something at the current market price.

Yes, you heard that right, if you hold something at $10/unit, that is the exact same thing as buying that something at $10/unit.

Tell that to the 401K kiddos and watch them freak out.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:01 | 837885 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Yes, you heard that right, if you hold something at $10/unit, that is the exact same thing as buying that something at $10/unit.

This is a concept most people find hard to accept. Holding is in effect the same as doing nothing, which is a decision in and of itself. Doing nothing is in effect a positive affirmation of the status quo since if you were terribly unhappy with it, you would sell it. Which means that if you're happy (or at least not unhappy) with something at it's present price, you are in effect buying it at that price because all the potential outcomes of the decision to either buy or hold are exactly the same at that moment. 

In fact, the dynamic of prior investment means many people value something higher if they've held something for a while than if they just purchased it. This emotional attachment would argue for that person being even more committed to the long side than if they had just purchased it.  

<humor alert below>

Prior investment is also the reason we don't drown our children when they hit their terrible teenage years. We feel we have so much invested in them at that point that to do anything other than hold on to them would "waste" the investment of our blood, sweat and (plenty of) tears. :>)

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:26 | 837949 Arius
Arius's picture

thanks for the

<humor alert below> sign - tyler sure knows how to pick them...great post as usual!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 14:34 | 838129 akak
akak's picture

Most fundamentally, PMs are speculation against present-and-future Fed/Treasury (Treserve) actions.  They are not investments.  They are speculative hedges.  Unfortunately, anything you do in the Stock and Bond market these days similarly is not investment:  All stock/bond transactions today are similarly speculative hedges.

Mikla, that is a good point.

It also needs to be pointed out, as I have argued with my mother regarding her "investments" over and over again, that simply sitting in cash is ALSO a speculation ---- a speculation that the US dollar will at least hold the exact same value it does today indefinitely into the future.  That, I feel, is by far the largest (and worst) speculation of all.

You are correct: Merely doing nothing with one's investments, hunkering down like a frightened rabbit, is just as much a speculation as anything else.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 13:24 | 837948 watchingdogma
watchingdogma's picture

That's interesting - I thought the BTFD video was about the metals - metals have waaaaaay outperformed equities - I thought that was the dip to buy...

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:50 | 837669 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

yeah, anyone see the action in silver in the last minute?  10 cent swing.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:51 | 837678 mberry8870
mberry8870's picture

it's $75 billion a month not $75 million.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:30 | 837789 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I was wondering if someone would mention that. They could dig $75 Mil out of the couch in their breakroom.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:55 | 837680 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

When the TV hacks talk about the oil rise to/or near $100/bl; watch the forex market.

USD currency debasement is their goal.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:01 | 837700 Cdad
Cdad's picture

There are few things that infuriate me more than failed politicians and corrupt bankers debasing the currency in an attempt to cover their failures and their special crimes.

It is the clear evidence, and all that any Average Joe needs, to assess that his leaders in these two very special categories of people need to be removed from the system before any real economic recovery can begin.  And I'm not talking about recoveries growing at the top of Banana Republic Trees.

CAPITAL CANNOT FORM IN BANKS AS CORRUPT AS THESE!

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:03 | 837703 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

It is hard for me to believe that $90 oil is not having a bigger impact on this economy.  I remember how much I hated filling the tank in the Jeep Grand Cherokee when gas first rose up over $2 per gallon.  That was an unpleasant time.  Now it's $3 and people still act like we have a healthy economy.  This feels like 2006 and 2007 all over again.  It is the last euphoria before the intervention. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:12 | 837732 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Funnier still is the fact that oil inventories did not draw down radically, as predicted by criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers that have been hosing Average Joe at the pumps for weeks now...and yet oil continues to be priced for stupid...if not priced for dot com.

Of course, it is not funny at all, but rather just a continuation of 30 years of criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers running wild because they know that they can because they are protected by our equally immoral and incompetent political class in DC.

So go ahead and grab a shit sandwich!  But also...close your wallet in every way humanly possible so as to starve these guys out of the system.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 11:55 | 837686 pcoombs
pcoombs's picture

 a small thing....but Diamond patterns...if it is one(and the higher high makes it suspect)....are usually continuation patterns.

 

bowing

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:01 | 837701 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

you are wrong. see my post below

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:00 | 837694 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

The only barometer of market behavior I need is the willingness of central banks worldwide to create credit and money. FED:yes ECB:yes BOJ:yes China:yes. Therefore, gold, silver and all commodities will continue to rise, but especially gold and silver.

Deflation will mean nothing and have zero effect on gold and silver. There is a disconnect- it is the sound of banks and investors losing money on assets in the shadow and the covert attempt to get out first and into metal.

When the defaults start, they will flood the dike, but until then-we get to play cat and mouse games with a propaganda media campaign, the dumping of debt on citizens and their willingness to pay higher tax percentages until default.

The price of gold and silver won't matter, because ultimately, it will be the only true measure of value. You will either have it or not. Like in any runaway inflationary scenario- it will not have a value in currency, because you won't be willing to trade it.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:00 | 837698 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

So if golds future, as this article alludes to, is closely linked to future Fed and QE activity, then consider the following:

You take a trip to the zoo and pass by the monkey cage. You witness the monkeys engaged in a feces and banana fight.

If you returned the following year, would you be surprised to find those same monkeys once again pelting each other with poo?

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:00 | 837699 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Diamond patterns are notoriously BEARISH

"The diamond top occurs mostly at the top of considerable uptrends. It effectively signals impending shortfalls and retracements with relative accuracy and ease."

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/DiamondBear.asp

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:08 | 837717 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Weak hands get flushed, gold is holding the nutz.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:08 | 837713 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

To me it seems like people who spend their time analyzing charts are gibbering morons.  The market is allegedly the sum total of what other people think.  What do you care what other people think?  And noticing patterns in the recent grand sum of what other people recently thought is -- boring as hell. 

That's just a slightly more sophisticated way of being a member of a herd.  Big deal.

Well OK, in some eras of history, when things are smooth and linear, that's probably the best you can do.  But we are not now living through such an era.  We are living through a time of grand paradigm change. 

In times like that, only fundamentals matter, and only the ones that the herd has no comprehension of.

In times like that, the idea that a "diamond top" is meaningful is as silly as using a Magic 8-Ball.

"Reply Hazy, Try Again Later."   

"Paradigm Shift Coming.  Fools and Angels Lose Their Odds."

 

 

 

Oh, and .... Fed Delenda Est.

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 21:03 | 838846 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Well said! Anyone relying on chartology now probably would do as well with an astrologer.

As many have stated here this is a paradigm shift. There is no bubble in PMs. There will be increases in PMs as long as CBs continue to print fiat. When CB printing stops the world will need a standard reference for judging the value of all assets. PMs will be that standard reference.

This is exactly what world bank president Robert Zolick has said on at least two occasions recently...and the mass media mis intpreted his comments both times.

Attempting to read a 'diamond formation' into the price of any commodity or PM now is akin to reading tea leaves or the entrails of goats. Stupid is as stupid does.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:08 | 837722 trav7777
trav7777's picture

this diamond top is the equivalent of a rorschach test.  they just basically draw some lines and call it a pattern...I mean half the candles are outside the fuckin lines

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:12 | 837738 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

That was supposed to be a diamond top?  I saw it as two women humping a basketball.  I guess I better sell all my silver.  Or maybe I should just check to see what the wife is doing. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:15 | 837740 swanpoint
swanpoint's picture

all things on this planet return to earth; gold and silver are earth. all other financial instruments are works of man, like kites. bankers know this; they got shit tons of Au.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 00:15 | 839032 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Is that another way of saying:

Gold is the money of kings,

Silver is the money of gentle(persons),

Barter is the money of peasants,

Debt (FRNs) is the money of slaves.

 

Just sayin...

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:13 | 837742 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Frankly, I hope that Doolittle's Diamond Top (tm) is the accurate prediction.

 

BTBFD*, baby.

 

*Buy the Big Fucking Dip. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:17 | 837749 ranrun
ranrun's picture

Should note Nasdaq and S&P 500 are priced in USDs which isn't nearly as high on the chart.

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:18 | 837754 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Once again, we have geniuses looking at charts based on the assumption that the US Dollar is a constant (when will these morons die off?).

In 2011, I predict that more than half of government spending will come from borrowed money (again at inexplicably low interest rates).  So what you are trying to calculate is not the "price" of gold - it's the collapse of the dollar.

Defending the dollar is not on anyone's agenda, so another 25% rise in gold is a lock, as Turd says. 

Beyond that, I think it all depends on how many people continue to see the emporer's new clothes...

 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:24 | 837771 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

The concept of the dollar devaluing against gold and silver is impossible for most people to understand.  They still see buying gold and silver like buying flour. 

A while ago I tried to do a little demonstration on housing prices in my hometown.  They are down about 40% since the 2005  peak.  Against gold they are down about 75% and even more against silver.  The concept of gold and silver as money just does not register. 

Thu, 12/30/2010 - 12:49 | 837846 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Agreed, but it seems to me the process of whipping money out of thin air is accelerating.  And I'm not about QE (which is only the process of recognizing newly printed money).

If you want to short out a pundits circuits ask, "Can you explain how the US managed to borrow 1.5 Trillion in 2010 at 2% for five years?  Who lends money to an uncreditworthy entity at those ridiculously low rates?"

That is the question no one wants asked.

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