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Buy Jan12 TBT Calls ... How can they lose?
WOW! Really?? Nice idea but with tracking errors on the underlying and premium decay on the call is like a double whammy. I'd rather take a mix of TBF, TBT and TLT Puts and be more nimble. It may cost more principle but you still get plenty of leverage. Your idea is pretty ballsy! Good luck.
Everybody knows the dice are loaded.......
I know that it is illegal for the Fed to purchase corporate bonds. But can QE 4.0 purchase CBOs, CLOs, and CDOs?
Imagine the crappiest of all C-rated crap getting packaged post-haste to shove up the Fed balance sheet.
They can and were rumored to have bought corporate bonds in the 2002 meltdown, basically can monetize asphalt if they so desire....
"All this does, is reinforce the Fed's "no way out" situation whereby merely the hint of rising interest rates, especially in the 3-7 year part of the curve. To avoid that, all the Fed can do is to keep buying increasingly short duration assets until it ultimately hit the point of monetizing FRNs. Whether this is ultra- or merely-hyperinflationary is to be determined. Yet the fact that in a few years, rates may become entirely detached from fiscal, and consumer-purchasing forces, is a true testament to the ability of the Federal Reserve rip apart the very forces of supply and demand simply to prevent a few mega corporations from filing for bankruptcy."
This is a particularly astute statement. Essentially the Fed is causing the very problems it will claim force it to do what it ultimately wants to do. Talk about the cart leading the horse. Plausible deniability to the nth degree. Brilliant!
No one should ever call any of these Ponzi masters "stupid" because it's clearly not the case. This is genius, pure and simple. The really skilled player lets the opponent think they're winning, right up to the point where they're crushed.
When the game is rigged how can you lose? These guys have access to a printing press. Imagine what you could do with those type of connections.
The whole concept of TBTF was a spinmeister's dream, and it was spun successfully, using fear and a hepped up sense of urgency and doomsaying. Now we have a Frankenstein's Monster of moral hazard and policy precedent. It's like we're all-in before the flop, holding a three and a ten, because we think the other players can be bluffed to fold.
TBT or any of the 2x or 3x won't work over time as they are reset daily.
the "Smart $" is screwing around with melting ice cubes like blockbuster and MNI
that's the spoils of war for some how surviving the turmoil the last few years....
....kissing the butts of big shop sales coverage to play secured debt with double digit yields with proceeds used to extend maturities
and just remember to sell
Look if TBT 2x doesn't work because of the daily reset problem then why not short both TBT and whatever the 2x long symbol is?
Debt destruction must occur in the US on a grand scale in order for the REAL economy to recover....
Let's make this simple....
1) One has $1000 in CASH....pays no interest
2) One has a $1000 in a bond....pays interest
Which is better ?
2)bond < $1000....and maybe $0....
Companies that sell "home safes" should be booming....
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I am very new to this, so I am sorry if my question seems naive to most.
But can someone explain what is meant under "monetizing FRNs" and how is it connected with cliff maturities?
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