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20th Consecutive Week Of Outflows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here are the facts: Beginning on May 5, there have been 20 consecutive outflows from domestic mutual equity funds. The average weekly outflow has been ($3.5) billion. Total outflows in this period are $70 billion. Total outflows YTD are $68 billion. The S&P on May 5, the day the series of outflows began, was 116.8. Today it closed at 113.5, a 2.8% decline despite almost $100 billion of runrated outflows. Furthermore, as we previously disclosed, YTD ETF flows through August into pure domestic equity-related strategies have been a negative $16.8 billion. In other words, the stock market is now virtually unchanged in 2010, even as almost $80 billion in equity-capital has been withdrawn.

Here is our question: how is this possible?

Weekly flows into domestic equity mutual funds:

Cumulative equity flows into domestic equity mutual funds:

Source: ICI

 

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Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:22 | 598304 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Farcism; more than a way of life.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:35 | 598359 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

+1000

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:47 | 598409 kengland
kengland's picture

You're right. This data is totally irrelevant at this point for that reason. All it proves is that they have COMPLETE control over events.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:29 | 598776 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

For an ever shortening length of time. How long do you really think they can keep printing out of thin air and pumping fake stocks to 'make things look ok'? For what? Whats their purpose to do it? What is their END GAME do you think? I dont think they keep this crap up longer than mid Oct, its reversal time.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:00 | 598447 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

is the 20th anniversay silver or gold?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:35 | 599142 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

25th = Silver, 50th = Gold!

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:49 | 599620 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

you guyz, are so full of shit.

CD, isn't it your 25th - silver?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:12 | 598962 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

And stranger than fiction.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:22 | 598305 optimator
optimator's picture
It's called a 'Grudge Market'.   You know, when somebody has it in for you.
Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:23 | 598309 VK
VK's picture

Maybe unicornz do shit skittlez!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:25 | 598314 Dr. Copper
Dr. Copper's picture

Because the public is always wrong?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:32 | 598349 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Are you refering to the out of work public, with too much debt and no discretionary income?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:55 | 598817 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

you know i just can't confirm your picture. really, what is the black thing?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:47 | 598922 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Tasty fun?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:36 | 599145 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The hair on the back of her head.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:34 | 598357 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. You can't have a rule without an exception to that rule.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:57 | 598578 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Unless it has a digital display, then it is always wrong when stopped.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 03:14 | 599309 Johnny Moscow
Johnny Moscow's picture

correct me if I'm wrong but I believe that even a digital clock flashes "12:00" constantly so wouldn't that mean that it still is correct 2x daily?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:35 | 598362 tmosley
tmosley's picture

They are wrong only to the extent that they might think they aren't vulnerable to the manipulations of the market makers after they have withdrawn their wad.

The public might tend to be wrong about what to buy and sell, but when they take htier money and go home, there's trouble a'brewin'.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:19 | 598636 rocker
rocker's picture

For myself, I have already closed two of four accounts completely. Stores nicely in a two safe deposit boxes.

Have replace much of the cash with physical Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Gold, and my newest being added to

right now, Rhodium. Check the charts. You can now buy Rhodium bars, not just powder. Looks better every day. 

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:49 | 598925 TheDriver
TheDriver's picture

As did I. Funny thing though, the bank manager didn't make a single attempt to get me to keep the 20+ year-old account open. Just a simple "sign here" and "thank you for coming in today, Mr. Driver."

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:03 | 599029 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Where do you get rhodium bars?  It's looking awfully good about now.  Maybe not as good as silver or even gold, but I don't mind a little diversification so long as I can hold it in my hands.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:26 | 598321 sysin3
sysin3's picture

With the POMOs, it sure seems like the primary dealers are buying all the stuff that the MFs are unloading.

Which would imply that the PDs will be left holding the big smelly bag.  Sweet !

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:36 | 598364 Joeman34
Joeman34's picture

Doubt it...  If the PD's are, in fact, buying what the MFs are selling, I'm sure they'll be allowed to gun the market much higher until such time as the retail investor is sucked back in allowing the PDs to offload their [truly] worthless equities as the market finally crashes.  We've seen this movie before...

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:43 | 598394 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Replace "retail investor" with "out-of-the-know hedge-fund" or even "rip-your-face-off hedge-fund selling to clueless retirement fund manager" and I think you've got a winning formula.

Retail investors are extinct.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:56 | 598436 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

thing is, probably half the retail money has left the market, and isn't coming back. people are paying down their debt, and....excuse me, people aren't quite as stupid as Timmah needs them to be.....a good number have been severely burned by the market twice in the last ten years.....

they know the game is rigged against them....and have left...

the real question is, how much of this cash is flowing into precious metals and being socked into safe deposit boxes......looking at the activity on APMEX.com, i'd say quite a bit....

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:05 | 598462 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Must there ALWAYS be a bigger fool?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:34 | 598782 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Must there ALWAYS be a bigger fool?

 

Until the fool killer gets them.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:27 | 598323 Slicyman
Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:14 | 598622 luster
luster's picture

It appears the WSJ is reporting the MFI technical indicator not the mutual fund equity flow.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:27 | 598325 Howard Bork
Howard Bork's picture

Here is your answer: $80 billion is nothing relative to the total size of the stock market and the data only captures mutual funds.  A better analysis where meaningful conclusions could be drawn would include all equity flows. 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:31 | 598344 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You do know just how much leverage is involved for these marginal transactions, or in this case, redemptions? Maybe a much better analysis would also show that mutual funds net cash positions are at a decade low 3.6%. And here is your comprehensive outflow analysis: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bny-asks-if-retail-investors-are-leaving-us-stocks-mutual-funds-and-etfs-then-who-buying-sto in which BNY ConvergEx came to the same conclusion. (sorry, no bold here).

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:49 | 598413 mule65
mule65's picture

Struggling folks and baby boomers are dumping their high fee extinct 401k mutual funds.  They appear to be buying gold and leveraged ETF's with whatever they have left.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:50 | 598419 Howard Bork
Howard Bork's picture

Thanks, but this is not a comprehensive analysis – it doesn’t include pension funds.  Here is my best guess as to what is going on: most pensions allocate their portfolios in fixed percentages (e.g., 30% equity, 70% fixed income).  Given how well fixed income has done this year, these pensions have been consistently forced to sell their bond positions (likely to retail investors who are selling out of equities) and allocate the money to equities instead (forcing the portfolio make-up to stay put).  Given this, I don’t think it is at all clear what is going on with equity flows.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:01 | 598451 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Pension funds, especially those that are forced to liquidate, like the much discussed TRS and the recently noted ISBI, sell their most liquid holdings first. Equities are at the top of that. The TRS has had to sell $3 billion in assets, the ISBI - $1 bilion. Other pension funds which are not liquidating quite yet, like NY and
Calpers, are allocating capital to long-term investment opportunities,
mostly private equity funds, which promise 10%+ returns. To say that funds that are liquidating to satisfy distribution claims, are buying up equities, is childish at best.

(we will summarize recent NY State Common and Teachers capital allocations in the next few days).

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:30 | 598974 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

What about SWF's? CIC in particular...

SWF's can put pension funds to shame in terms of AUM.

Could be onto something here:

FED buys UST's, makes China happy, China buys stocks makes US happy.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:42 | 599151 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

And now for the good news! ........................... I got nuthin'!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:17 | 598487 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

From what I've seen, most pension funds (at least the big ones) have their portfolio's equity allocations in separately managed accounts (SMA's). They own each individual security/stock in the account. They work with multiple managers that specialize in a certain segment of the equity market, i.e. Large Cap Growth, etc. SMA's do not fall into the mutual funds in and out flows, correct?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:17 | 598480 Djirk
Djirk's picture

Agreed this is a fraction of 1% of the total market cap of equities. I looked at the money flows and it is still not a huge number overall (and mostly looks at ETFs)

No match for the leveraged institutional buyers full of liquidity.

It is a good tell for the state of the consumers, a % their earnings do eventually go into institutional books. And the pension funds are going to face a massive liquidation issue in the next decade.

Musical chairs anyone? What did that BSD say right before a melt down...."we are still dancing"

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 00:00 | 599173 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

must really shit you TD when you get junked on your own blog. These guys that want to live in denial as it makes them feel warm and cozy should be on the CNBC blog not ZH. the 2010 ICI investment company fact book shows LT equity mutual funds cash positions were at 3.6% at the start of 2010, before the redemptions started and was a 15 year low. there is $5T in assets 95% of that in stocks. 3.6% of $5T is $180 bill. $70 bill or over a 3rd of their cash has been redeemed. they would have to be selling to meet these redemptions. Its not up to us to explain why the market should be down it is up to the bulls to explain how the market is flat and not one of them comes up with a reasonable explanation.

$70bill in outflows and a flat market is clearly a massive outlier that defies logic to any rational, independant thinker.

 


Yearly Mutual Fund Flows & what market did that year


Mutual flows / Yearly Flows $B/ Mkt move that year


1996  /


 


216 / 20.30%

1997 /


 


226 / 31%

1998 /


 


156 / 26.70%

1999 /


 


186 / 19.50%

2000 /


 


246 / -10.10%

2001 /


 


32  / -13.04%

2002 /


 


-40 / -23.37%

2003 /


 


152 / 26.38%

2004 /


 


177 / 8.99%

2005 /


 


135 / 3.00%

2006  /


 


?  / 13.62%

2007 /


 


94.5 / 3.53%

2008 / -245  / -38.49%

2009 /


 


5.2 / 23.40%

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:27 | 598326 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

dumb money selling right into the hands of smart money.  When the public realizes this the amrket will shoot to the moon and the smart money will begin to sell off at redic P/E ratios.  Rinse.  Repeat. 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:39 | 598376 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, that's right, believe yourself to be the smart money.

When you look around the table, and can't find the sucker, what does that say about you?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:42 | 598906 GittyUP
GittyUP's picture

I never said me.  But I know one thing about the investing public Joe Schmoe;  They are retarded.   I will not look at some indicator in which they lead the way. 

 

Ant the banks were the smart money in 2008.  they were wrong and still didn't end up on the losing side of the equation.  If thats not smart I dont know what is...

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:16 | 599038 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Making yourself beholden to the government is NOT, I repeat, NOT smart.  All it takes is for one person to get a stick up their ass, and you are through.

And smart or dumb money only applies when you are sitting at the table.  Those people are redeeming their money and keeping cash.  A very few are buying metals.  Hardly "dumb" under most conditions.  "Dumb" is chasing the latest and greatest bubble, which they are definitively NOT doing (save perhaps to some extent hte bubble in the dollar itself, but we'll see about that).

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 23:25 | 599131 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

This isn't like every other time when every other time has only been the last 30 years. The rules have changed and demographics are changing. This is not the U.S. coming out of the 70's with the baby-boomers about to enter their prime spending/investing years. Take this as official notice: the game is over as you've known it. The money pouring out of retail equity vehicles is NOT coming back. You can be bullish and you can think the market is moving higher, but I would advise that you get a more sound investment hypothesis than "investing public Joe Schmoe is retarded".

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:42 | 598389 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Gitty...maybe your right or just maybe jobless people would rather gamble on BUYING FOOD instead of in the "Stunk Market".

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:04 | 598457 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Whatever. I'm sure the "smart money" sold off before the 2008 crash - which is why the TBTF banks needed bailouts and special rules to hide their trash. Such bulltardness.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:19 | 599024 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The markets are not doing that great. They had a little rally now they might have a little selloff.

Nobody knows what is going to happen, really, smart or dumb. Chance and things no one imagining happenning are what moves the market big time.

The probability of really good news at this juncture is  a lot less than the probability of news being bad.

With the way the economy is there is no doubt the shit will hit the fan once again sooner or later, and there is nothing even genius money can do about it.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:27 | 598327 redpill
redpill's picture

Wiley Coyote can run on air indefinitely as long as he doesn't look down.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:54 | 598328 bada boom
bada boom's picture

MSM was hot and heavy this week on the recession being over, dow theory buy signal close at hand, and the s&p is on the verge of technical breakout.  All of this on Monday.

Yesterday, all we heard was the fed was going to do another QE.

Talk about selling it hard to retail.

We shall see next week if the tides have changed, but I doubt it.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:28 | 598329 furieus
furieus's picture

How is it possible?  I'm reminded of a scene from the Matrix, where agent Smith looks out a window onto the city below and gloats to Morpheus: "Have you ever stared at it; Marvel at its beauty, its genius? Billions of people living their lives. Oblivious."

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:30 | 598338 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

I must admit I WAIT for this post every week & each week I am astonished, however, as the insightful Marvin the Martian once said, "Where is the KA-BOOM? The Large Earth-Shattering KA-BOOM?!" Then I remind myself that Uncle Bennie & the Timms have been monetizing the debt & funneling the capital back to Wall Street - Just like President Obama indicated in March 2009 that it was a great time to invest in the Stock Market, Alan Greenspan on 1 August 2010 indicated that the BEST thing the FED can do for the US economy is to maintain the current levels of US Equity indexes (Paraphrase)-However, US Taxpayers funding of the equity market does little to aid the REAL economy - note DOW 10,739 & Unemployment @ 9.6% - Crony Capitalism alive & well on K Street Washington DC -

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:21 | 598866 mikla
mikla's picture

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:42 | 599002 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

That day your lights go out. No internet. Your car doesn't start. Your iPhone is dead.

WTF?

EMP BITCHES!!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 22:21 | 599048 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The military did some testing in regards to that, and found that EMP won't actually disable even the most electronic reliant car.  At most, they will cause them to shut off, but simply turning the key was enough to bring them back on.

The only real problem is anything connected to a very long wire, or something that has very heat sensitive parts (most modern electronics can take multiple hundred degrees of heat--this from someone posting on a computer that went through a house fire, and was sitting next to the monitor that MELTED).  Your computer will probably be dead, as will much of the internet, but your car, and any electronics not hooked to the grid should be fine.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 00:04 | 599182 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

EMP is not a problem but solar flares are a problem. The grid works with + side some 120 to 4000 volts above ground potential. If a solar flare hits there's a basic formula of 40 thousand kilovolts everywhere. Basically jupiter is 40 kvolts above Io's potential sun is 40 kvolts above earth's potential. If a flare hits you get ground going anywhere from 0 to 40 kvolts. if it hits even 2 or 300 thousand volts not kilovolts then that's enough to burn out every transformer on the planet in every AC power grid. Which means even though there's wire theres no juice.

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 14:37 | 600502 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Your computer will probably be dead, as will much of the internet, but your car, and any electronics not hooked to the grid should be fine.

Don't worry folks, the military says your car will still work just fine. You'll want to stay home anyway because the foodstampers will be out in force - getting what's "theirs" once their magic swipey cards don't work anymore. I imagine a lot of police will also opt to stay home and protect their family.

"This is the big one. You won't recognize anything in week. If you're alive."

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:30 | 598340 breezer1
breezer1's picture

they can value this stuff at anything they want when they own it all.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:30 | 598341 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

This is strongly bullish - it means there's more money on the sidelines.

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:35 | 598361 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

You joke, right?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:43 | 598393 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Yeah, I thought that was pretty obvious - my best Marketwatch impression - but I've been junked 4x!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:10 | 598471 The Rock
The Rock's picture

LOL, some people don't get humor if it slapped them in the face!

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:07 | 599433 Ted K
Ted K's picture

I just assumed it was a female anchor from CNBC checking to see if anyone had guessed her bra size correctly yet.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:35 | 598363 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

You joke, right?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:41 | 598383 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I imagine this money isn't on the sidelines.  It's paying the bills.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:46 | 598402 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What dark, hardly accessible, stinky place did you pull that comment from?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:49 | 598410 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I jest, I JEST - woah next time I'll make it more obvious.

But that was my Marketwatch impression.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:02 | 598453 Upswaller
Upswaller's picture

Hey, I thought it was funny!  Did you show a little more cleavage when you said it?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:34 | 598350 B9K9
B9K9's picture

For obvious reasons, the real outflow statistic that underpins our entire precarious situation isn't made public: The conversion of $dollars and Treasuries into gold.

And I'm not talking about penny-ante shit like spot prices - I'm talking about the TBTF players who have been waiting to see if Ben could pull off another bubble. Yeah, the guys who were made whole by converting $trillions of their trash MBS into $USD & Ts.

So now they have a bunch of $USD (aka "excess reserves" LOL) & Ts - problem is, as the deflationary cycle tightens with no respite in sight, everyone is starting to sense a default event appearing on the distant horizon. In no way do they want to be holding $USD & Ts if it becomes widely known that the underlying asset (ie the present value of the US taxpayer) ain't gonna pull it off.

The alternative, of course, is that fed.gov once avain takes over creation of base money and regulates private credit creation. Either scenario is bad, bad, bad for $dollar & T holders. So who's inching towards the door?

Like they say, hyper-inflation happens overnight.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:31 | 598519 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

well said. The real movements for everything are off record now. That's  procedure for both the new democracy and economy.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:34 | 598356 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

BuyEquityNow Bernanke?  Maybe he's been "doing it" for over a year now?  Chump change by Fed standards.  He's a notoriously bad liar, too...but he seems to be improving.  I think Leisman's been coaching his Sith Lords somehow.  Not easy for us academic types ya know.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:35 | 598358 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

How much of these outflows are being consumed to meet the NEEDS of their families?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:25 | 598513 economessed
economessed's picture

Exactly -- and more to the point, how many of these individuals pulling money out are going to Wal Mart on the last day of the month at 11:00 p.m. to buy diapers, formula, and ramen noodles?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:36 | 598365 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Bernanke just said he wasn't monetizing debt, he didn't say jack about equities, did he?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:40 | 598378 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Wouldn't it be fun if Bernacke contracted 'Pinocchio' Syndrome while CNBC's Erin Burnett asks if he is monetizing the US Debt?  - that would be PRICELESS!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:37 | 598367 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

U R gonna need a bigger Market Performance chart in a few months.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:37 | 598368 win
win's picture

How is it possible?

Surely you jest.

It is possible through the majik of 
transparency

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:43 | 598384 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Or...

In the last 32 weeks there was a 2 week window where there was a positive cumulative equity flow into domestic equity mutual funds.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:42 | 598392 Hero Protagonist
Hero Protagonist's picture

How about to pay bills?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:43 | 598396 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Obviously, all of those outflows are going towards purchases of iPhones, iPad, iPods, iMacs. As those sell more and more, the stock price of AAPL continues to rocket higher which in turn keeps the entire market from cratering since its weighting is enormous.

See, pretty simple really.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:48 | 598411 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You with the AAPL crap again?  Give it up.  You were pretty reasonable there for a while but this is getting tiresome.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:54 | 598430 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Sorry, just having fun. It's like the good old days, buy a tech stock and watch it run up daily. Only this one is the 2nd largest company in the US. 

Another 40 points or so and it becomes THE biggest company in the US. That should scare everyone.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:59 | 598445 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Actually, they are spending their money at Bed Bath and Beyond Crapola.  Can somebody explain how that company had a great quarter? 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:24 | 598650 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Trick with coupons. They send them almost daily and people think they're getting a bargain when really they're paying the same as anywhere else after the coupon.

Also, one stop shopping with coupon for Ms. Suburanite can't be beat.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:49 | 598401 Lucky Guesst
Lucky Guesst's picture

shhhhhhhh!

Please shut up before they blow up a nuclear plant or write a bill to put Dude Gaga's ugly face on Mt. Rushmore to draw our attention away from this!

 

* edited to add the word ugly :-)

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:47 | 598408 Jason T
Jason T's picture

AAII had 50% bulls last week.  Well, they need money to help stop foreclosures and or fund their self employment they realize is not working out.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:54 | 598429 tecno242
tecno242's picture

Just a thought;

Retail that's been holding short ETF's for months like SRS.. slowly giving up and being converted into APPL holders..

while at the same time, they are getting distributed to while the market tops here?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:55 | 598432 Dr. Copper
Dr. Copper's picture

ZH has been detailing every reason why the market should go down since 4/09 but at some point you have to take a hint and say gee, the market keeps going up.  ZH trumpeted the Hindenburg Omen and even displayed how much the market had lost since first mentioned on ZH.  How has that worked out?  Sometimes I think ZH is owned by Wall Street to get the public to sell to stronger hands.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:03 | 598456 mule65
mule65's picture

Interesting theory but I think you'll be junked into oblivion LOL.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:59 | 598584 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The 5% drop in the market since the HO was confirmed did in fact occur. If you were expecting the S&P to drop to 0 based on a pattern, well, maybe you should moderate your expectations. You are correct in that we detail how broken the market is, and beginning in July 2009 we have told readers to stay out of stocks (on the other hand you may have missed our February 2009 call to buy Citi at just over a dollar). Sometimes we are very, very amused why readers assume we are bearish on stocks - we merely present reality (and if it is ugly and you don't want to hear the truth, please find a different blog): reality may provide positive or negative stock trades (also, feel free to refer to the daily divergences we have highlighted, which is a far lower risk trade, and which if you had followed the divergence spread collapse suggestions, you would have made an annualized 100%+ return). And, the one thing that gets us every time: this is not a trading blog. There are thousands of other blogs out there that will give you advice on how to lose your money. We would rather you preserve it. That said, we have been very pleasantly non-surprised by gold's performance. Please chart the performance of gold vs the S&P and get back to us.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:39 | 598670 The Rock
The Rock's picture

First off, I want to say that I have learned a lot in reading this blog and I appreciate it.  But I must say that you guys do tend to extrapolate to armageddon a lot... so some people will tend to either get scared and miss out on the bull run (of the past 18 months) or get mad and try to short the market and get burned...

Btw, if I had to pick what would happen in the next few years, I would be leaning toward armageddon.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:42 | 598791 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

"Btw, if I had to pick what would happen in the next few years, I would be leaning toward armageddon."

Me too. As in, armageddon oudathemarkets.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:50 | 599015 The Rock
The Rock's picture

+1

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:44 | 598914 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

"bull run"

Is that what Madoff had?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:11 | 598742 kengland
kengland's picture

"reality may provide positive or negative stock trades"

 

LMAO...Harry W has been beaten to death for saying the same thing for a year now! Where are all the junks Bitchez!

 

Tyler (or whatever your name is)

This makes you human. As one of your readers since 08, I believe you've done a pretty good job by adding Leo, mad hedge fund, Nic, etc. That should provide quite a bit of understanding to most of your readers where your (or the 10 or so folks who use the TD name) stand.

I will say that sometimes that gets lost when you daily point out the same series of negative data (loosely tied together) over and over and over again and the market yawns. The implication is that you are ALWAYS bearish. We are common folks here searching....remind us that you are too from time to time.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:10 | 598814 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

"Harry W has been beaten to death for saying the same thing for a year now!" Harry wasn't junked because he was saying the same thing for a year. He was junked because his logic for his postings was wrong, or came across as a permabull in the early part of the year.

As for TD/ZH being "ALWAYS bearish," current reality shows that the only thing keeping this stock market afloat are a bunch of implicit guarantees that the worlds' respective governments will spend whatever money they can print to prop up all financial markets (regardless of inefficiency).

TD is nice enough to post inefficiencies in the market (e.g. - decouplings aka VERY low risk trades) for ZH readers to profit nicely (assuming they have the means to do so) at no cost.

In all, pretty much all major financial indicators currently point downward. ZH is bearish, but the news is spot on and more accurate of what's really going on.  Unfortunately, I can't say that for any mass media financial site... and anyone with the smallest amount of financial intelligence can't say that, either. If you want happiness in financial news, Yahoo, CNBC, CBS Marketwatch, WSJ, FT., etc. will always welcome your clicks but you can be assured the market will go up not because of anything they put out or report.

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:36 | 598993 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

> "since 08"

LOL

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:22 | 598873 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

***DEFACTO DISCLAIMER***

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:33 | 598665 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

"ZH has been detailing every reason why the market should go down since 4/09..."

Yep. So what? The market has a zillion reasons to go down if it were based on economic data. But as we've seen, it's not. There is minimal correlation between the market and the economy.

So while ZH rightfully gives you reasons why the market should go down, if it were correlated with the economic data, they haven't been wrong. It's not like they're saying, "SPX will go down to 1000 or up to 1500 like 99% of the blogosphere/analyst morons out there.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:09 | 598745 kengland
kengland's picture

Too funny that you should be here under the same thread....clink of the cups to you

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:49 | 598803 samsara
samsara's picture

DrC

'ZH trumpeted the Hindenburg Omen and even displayed how much the market had lost since first mentioned on ZH.  How has that worked out? '

I believe that the Hindenburg Omen says that an effect can trail the observances by 120 days, and that about half occurred within 41 days.

But then, I guess if you knew what the HO meant,  your question of "How has that worked out?"  would have appeared to you as trite as it may be to others.

 

 

 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 03:31 | 599319 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Stay in the market. You'll be alright.

We're crazy doomsdayers. Just ignore us.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 16:56 | 598433 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

US Treasury's Geithner says major US banks now hold very substantial levels of capital against risks on their balance sheets ... US TREASURY SPEAKER

… further losses from toxic assets not a material source of risk
Says:
- there is still tremendous appeal to US in designing form of contingent capital that would make banking system less volatile

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:00 | 598435 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

It is possible..(leverage / low liquidity/ firms going private) but it is rather improbable.

Unless the big brother goes all FUCK YEAH !

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:30 | 598437 bada boom
bada boom's picture

I would like to know who is selling the bonds to where all this money is flowing into. According to ICI, taxable bond funds had an estimated inflow of $7.38 billion for the past week only.  YTD, the inflow into taxable bonds is close to $200 billion.

What happened to this money after it was exchanged with the retail investor?

Are they the ones buying stocks?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:04 | 598460 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Been asking who's buying this crap for a while now.  I understand most funds have been down to 3-4% cash for a while, equity mutual funds have outflows & certain pension funds are selling their securities due to funding issues.   Yet the market levitates...

 

Ever seen an old vacuum tube implode?  It looks fine until the final event.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:09 | 598743 JohnG
JohnG's picture

I'll borrow a phrase that I saw in a comment a few days ago:

"Engines seem to be running at thier best just before they seize."

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:49 | 598797 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

"Engines seem to be running at thier best just before they seize."

True. A car engine is a heat engine. The more heat the more power (as in hot rod). The closer you get to burning up the engine, the more power you get. The trick is to come closer than the other guy without going over. If you win the race and the engine blows one foot past the finish line, you did it perfect.

How this applies to the economy I'm not sure. Maybe if you turned the Three Stooges loose in a racing shop full of nitro fuel they could do as good a job of souping up a car as the administration has of souping up the economy.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:10 | 598465 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I think Pomo Money is to replace the Retail Invester withdraws.  The Fed is using Tax Payer Money to replace Retail Traders.  What a shame we have to pay higher taxes because of the again proping up of Wall Street.

What a shame.  People are withdrawing Money to save their Principal and the Fed is using their Tax Money to keep the Market up.  So, they will have to suffer losses from the Fed putting Money in at the Top.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:11 | 598474 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

How about if someone with access would map the coresponding inflows.

Please account for mattress cash as well.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:12 | 598476 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Tyler why don't you do a chart of the withdraws vs the Pomo's.  Probably even if not weighted to the plus side for the Pomo.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:13 | 598481 Sherman McCoy
Sherman McCoy's picture

Thanks for the post. Not sure how to make money off the info though. I'm long and making money. Do you have some other objective?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:25 | 598514 Something Wicke...
Something Wicked This Way Comes's picture

oh yea dude. i'll bet you are just kicking ass. whatever.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:48 | 598557 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

GFS alert

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:19 | 598498 Bruce
Bruce's picture

Please add Fed weekly POMO data

to your charts  :)

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:23 | 598504 tom
tom's picture

One thing to keep in mind is that flows in/out of mutual funds don't correspond directly to mutual funds' purchases/disposals of equities.

 

I know the Flow of Funds data is sloppy, but here's what it says:

Big net buyers and sellers (amounts are annualized billions, ie multiplied roughly by 4)

                                  1q      2q

Households (directly):   -76    +158

Federal government:     -14     +66

Foreigners (hedgies): +129      +30

Life insurance:            +84      +76

Mutual funds:             +93       -18

ETFs:                         -13       +78

Brokers-dealers:          -65        -7

Private pension funds: -135      -111

(many groups skipped)

 

Total issuance:            -117    +273

(negative issuance = buybacks, drives prices up)

 

I read three things from this:

- The buying during the second quarter was mainly retail investors on their personal accounts.

- There was no visible overall retreat from equities by the segment of retail investors who invest indirectly through funds in the first half of the year. That will likely change in 3q since it's mainly a post-May 6 phenomenon.

- It's the private pension funds that have been consistently dumping stocks all year.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:28 | 598881 tom
tom's picture

A correction: domestic hedge funds are included under "household sector" in Flow of Funds data. So that 2q buying was largely, probably mainly domestic hedge funds.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:22 | 598505 Something Wicke...
Something Wicked This Way Comes's picture

Tyler, I've been scratching my head at this very question. Here are my two suggestions. Any buying is done on margin to cover and insure. The other possibility, TBTF and...

Whether or not the unaudited FED can go long. It's not like anyone gets a look at the books...

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:32 | 598529 thepigman
thepigman's picture

All I know is if
stocks open down
30% tomorrow morning, they're still not
cheap on a GAAP
p/e basis. Eventually, we'll
be like Japan where
if you ask about
stocks, they just
titter in embarassment for you.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:33 | 598531 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Retail take out 100% of their Money.  Pomo gives the Banks 30X the Pomo Money.  So, take out non leveraged money and replace it with 30 to 1 Money.  That would explain it.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:50 | 598561 bb5
bb5's picture

The only tool left for the "gubmint" to use is floating the stock market. They make the people think all is well and hope that they commence the reckless spending of time past. Just days before the crash of 1929----our leaders declared that all was well and stocks were a buy. I really don't think that the vast majority of people have any idea whatsoever of the gravity of our situation. This tactic might backfire in their face as a lot of pissed off people at a town hall meeting told Obama of their anger at the NBER announcement that the recession was over.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:52 | 598565 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

the markets are a joke, controlled by a single program

that is controlled by a central authority

it's mission is to enrich its owners and control the mood of society while raping it

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 17:53 | 598568 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

answer: the mutual fund industry has $19 trillion or so in assets.  $70 billion is a pimple on the elephant's ass to the managers (not to mention some dollars that simply moved to a bond fund in the same family, lessening the fee hit).

the main point is valid, though.  retail is leaving in droves.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:04 | 598596 omi
omi's picture

So that sounds like a start of another leg up then, as the retail investori s always wrong by definition.

Also, can ZH provide a scope of these numbers? What's the total equity market's value, how much institutional investors hold, mutual funds, pension (specific) funds. You gotta put these numbers into some perspective, as they are, they don't really mean much.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:15 | 598628 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

This has been done in the past on several occasions.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:29 | 598627 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/pe/pdfs/q842.pdf?cbdForceDomain=true

http://econ.bus.utk.edu/november%20newsschool.pdf

Study the missing percentages.


What is required is a closed, double-entry bookkeeping clearing institution to keep the payments ‘score’ among the various trading nations plus some mutually agreed upon rules to create and reflux international liquidity while maintaining the purchasing power of the created international currency of the international clearing union.

Do not understate SWF

 The guarantee of only one-way convertibility permits each nation to institute controls and regulations on international capital fund flows if necessary. The primary economic function of these international capital flow controls and regulations is to prevent rapid changes in the bull-bear sentiment from overwhelming the market maker and inducing dramatic changes in international financial market price trends that can have devastating real consequences.


IMCUs are not available to be held by the public.

==================

Call it whatever you want today.

Here is our question: how is this possible?

Keep in mind, a persistent EUR at current levels means about 2% of GDP loss for Germany. And Germany will not take it.


The original Keynes Plan for reforming the international payments system called for the creation of a single Supranational Central Bank. The clearing union institution suggested infra is a more modest proposal than the Keynes Plan, although it operates under the same economic principles laid down by Keynes.

SDR is and never will be abandoned by progressives.

 Hear this, O ye that swallow up the needy, even to make the poor of the land to fail, Saying, When will the new moon be gone, that we may sell corn? and the sabbath, that we may set forth wheat, making the ephah small, and the shekel great, and falsifying the balances by deceit? That we may buy the poor for silver, and the needy for a pair of shoes; yea, and sell the refuse of the wheat? The LORD hath sworn by the excellency of Jacob, Surely I will never forget any of their works. Amos

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:26 | 598654 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

So that's why all the sheeply social justice bitchez at my church don't like "Free Markets"!   Now I understand why they are mad ... because the FED is free to do do as they please in this bs market.  Obaaaaaama will save the sheeply sleeple. 

I always wondered how these FREE MARKETS worked.  Hayek's soul is crying tears right now.   What a fine fat fk'n fascist fiasco we are in. 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 18:43 | 598694 The Rock
The Rock's picture

I'm going to do this Kathy Chamberlin style:

F U C K  T H I S  G O D D A M N  M O T H E R F U C K I N G  M A R K E T !!!

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:07 | 598839 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

your putting words into my mouth or something else, R O C K.

i don't know a damn thing about the m a r k e t .

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:53 | 599018 The Rock
The Rock's picture

LOL, i just meant the way in which you t y p e.

btw, is that you velobabe? 

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 03:31 | 599314 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Of course its her! Who else do you think would have that picture?

In all of my wonderings on this wordrous thing called the intrawebs, the only time I ever saw that particular picture was when Velobabe used it.

Not once at any other time. I read a lot here, but seldom post. That picture is hard to forget. ;-)

Hows it going Velo?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 09:55 | 599638 kathy.chamberli...
kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

good, big bunny ears, cutey†

cbxer55 does cb have anything to do with cheeky bastard?


Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:08 | 598741 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Corporate stock buybacks to raise share prices so that management's options will yield a far greater return....Amazon is a classic....insiders exercise options and are selling stock hand over fist while management uses the shareholders' money for stock buybacks.

 

 

Corporations are sitting on a cash hoard and what better place to use it than to line their own pockets by buying back shares so their options become more valuable.

It would be interesting to see the shrinkage rate in shares outstanding.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 19:42 | 598790 Davilis
Davilis's picture

80 billion seems like such a small amount.  Wasn't it 93 billion that went unaccounted for in all the Treasury hoo-ha with TARP and bailouts?  80 billion is rounding error!  Perhaps the govt. purchase of equities is a non-reportable event protected by the Patriot Act?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:21 | 598869 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Chump Change, Chump!

I appreciate your effort. However, about 2 minutes on the Google search button provides a little perspective. Either that or somebody got it all wrong..... again.

Check it out:

With $9.6 trillion in assets, the U.S. mutual fund industry remained the largest in the world at year-end 2008. Nevertheless, total net assets fell $2.4 trillion from year-end 2007’s level, largely reflecting the sharp drop in equity prices experienced worldwide in 2008.

 

http://www.icifactbook.org/fb_sec2.html

 

Data Show Continued Trend Toward Bond Funds: See Chief Economist’s Attached Note

Washington, DC, August 30, 2010 - The combined assets of the nation’s mutual funds increased by $415.3 billion, or 4.0 percent, to $10.916 trillion in July, according to the Investment Company Institute’s official survey of the mutual fund industry. In the survey, mutual fund companies report actual assets, sales, and redemptions to ICI.

 

 http://www.ici.org/research/stats/trends/trends_07_10

 

 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:40 | 598995 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

 "in July"

That data has a rollover period.

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 20:32 | 598884 FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

Thing is, the $80 billion in equity mutual fund outflow is vanilla and doesn't seem to be levered. That is, it's not $2.4 trillion notional. We get 2% daily ramps on$3 billion in POMO liquidity because, presumably, that $3 billion goes x30 as $90 billion to gun stocks. $80 billion of vanilla outflows causing a 2% equity decline seems about right, no? 

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:20 | 598973 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I wonder how well this tracks with the flow of tax receipts and hardship 401K transactions?

Wed, 09/22/2010 - 21:31 | 598985 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

I got four reasons how this is possible:

1) It's easier to rig the stock market than fix the economy (note the state of the real economy).

2) There is a giant, leveraged game of "chicken" going on behind the scenes with pro money managers (many of whom are required to be primarily long).  If they can't produce returns, they'll be going from flipping stocks to flipping burgers.  The leverage is nuts, but hey, it's not like it's their money.

3) Self-preservation.  There's a whole lot of nit-wits out there that think the Wall Street wealth creation model works (spoiler alert: it doesn't), and there's a whole lot of lobbyist money out there trying to persuade Congress to ditch SS and let Blankfein handled it.  Allowing stocks to crater again would make that a really tough sell.

4) Stocks aren't allowed to go down - IT'S THE LAW!!!  Really, I'm not kidding.  From the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008

(1) to immediately provide authority and facilities that the Secretary of the Treasury can use to restore liquidity and stability to the financial system of the United States; and (2) to ensure that such authority and such facilities are used in a manner that

(A) protects home values, college funds, retirement accounts, and life savings;
http://openjurist.org/title-12/us-code/section-5201/purposes Doncha get it?  It's their job to rig the markets now. What's funny is they are thinking like Jeff Spicolli after wrecking someone else's car:
Relax, all right? My old man is a television repairman, he's got this ultimate set of tools. I can fix it.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083929/quotes What's not funny is how much this little magic show is gonna cost us.
Thu, 09/23/2010 - 02:04 | 599264 Whats that smell
Whats that smell's picture

That is a damn good question. I don't think it is possible. Unless there is other money coming in to balance the outflows. Ben & Tim ?

Thu, 09/23/2010 - 08:23 | 599456 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Short signals detected yesterday have now increased.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

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CL1's picture

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