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229 Billion Reasons To Squeeze The Market
The bond vigilantes (and PIMCO which just loves the short end) will be happy to see this. And the equity market will need a higher point to drop from as $229 billion in capital is reallocated.
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Come on TD, come drink at the public trough. Ben is buying if Bill Gross or the Chinese opt out. What's 229 billion electrons amongst friends?
yes, all of those doom and gloomers who think it
is possible for a failed treasury auction are
delusional.
Yep. No failed treasury auction ... just complete destruction of the $. Nothing doom and gloom there ...
The Federal Reserve is a super massive blackhole.
Yes, it's really time to start looking at the economy on the ground: demographics, supply chain, income distribution. In a corporatist economy which we now have (have always had?), it makes NO sense to follow the "shenanigans" of government. "Treasuries," "dollar," "deficit"--these terms have no meaning, except as propaganda. You don't ask Keynes what they mean, you ask Goebbels. Zerohedge needs some new metrics, some new measures. Otherwise, you're simply complaining on behalf of one element of the fascist investment class. Is that what you're doing, TD? If not, exactly what are you saying?
You're wandering into a problem, TD. The more smoke the government blows, the foggier YOUR ideas become. Inevitably, then, inquiring minds start to ask: are you a front, too? Does this site emanate from a secret room at the Fed? Which side, exactly, are you on?
You provide us with mediocre comic relief amongst the insanity that persists in the market .. therefore not regarded as junk.
It's a cover up. Eventually everything will collapse. Dinosaurs had it better.
Dinosaurs ran around for 150 million years. How long before we self-destruct?
Exactly. Isn't it obvious by now that government policy is to support homeowners, period. No one else matters. So...how's that going. Forget economy qua economy, dollar qua dollar, moral hazard qua moral hazard. Don't bother with those things, just, how's it going supporting American homeowners? Keep your eye on the ball. American homeowners are the only people who matter. They support the American power structure. Everything is geared toward supporting them them them. Only them. Don't pay attention to anything else. How's it going, supporting American homeowners?
This is correct. It's the only thing that explains why California's Prop 13 continues in existence, or why health care reform won't pass. It's why they prop up the stock market, or all the useless jobs there still are in America. It must be just, "We only care about homeowners--don't talk to us about anything else. We're not listening."
but what about the children??
:-o
I don't care anymore.
Same here - all care I had as to where the markets went has died...
USD/JPY is going to break down. That's all I've heard for two weeks. Seen it lately? Entirely correlated to S&P and all the breakdown talk for that index hasn't happened either.
Say what?!? Correlated by what relation?
Stop looking at it and it will happen.
It's exactly what the power structure wants you to do. It's what kept Thatcher in power so long. People who otherwise would get politically motivated, are so baffled and depressed that they just drop out of the process. Zombie economies beget zombies. You have become one. Have a nice day.
We have to keep spending in order to avoid bankruptcy.
Jee, wish I could do that with my credit cards.
0% transfer fees, no interest nor payments due for a year!
This blog is one huge contrary indicator, The auction will go fine and the market will continue higher while everyone here loses.
Cmon Charlie, just sign up. Stop posting under Anon... =)
amen. fading this stuff is like a gift from god.
By now your name and particulars have been fed into every laptop, desktop, mainframe and supermarket scanner that collectively make up the global information conspiracy, otherwise known as "The Beast."
Spending our way into prosperity, can't wait for the rapant tax hikes for the next 30 years to pay for all this.
Tyler,
it must be pretty frustrating being on the wrong side of the trade for several months now.
Come on, tell us another conspiracy story about HF traders manipulating this market instead of this boring bond stuff...
Interesting, maybe I should post something true about Raiffeisen bank :)
Bill gross cannnot be happy
Yeehaw! I shorted treasuries yesterday! Call me a bond vigilante!
Fed's Fisher against any more Treasury purchases
1:27p: Fed can't be 'handmaiden' to Treasury: Fisher
'handmaiden' ? Is that political talk for 'giver of happy endings'
that's political talk for being a cheapass ho.....
and the fed will continue to be a ho for as long
as its pimps want - which is forever....
Who's giving handjobs to whom? Gotta get my glasses fixed.
Dollar downtrend. Commodities climbing. Inflation igniting!
Let's suppose that a lot of HFT computers are programmed to do Dollar/Euro-S&P500 convergence trading. This means that as the dollar slides, they are buying, buying, buying shares. Two questions: (1)At what point can't they buy anymore? (2)At what point does this manipulation come out into the open? If there is no constraint on how much they can buy (QE money from Fed), then there still must come a point where they own so many shares that it can no longer be concealed.
Two Points:
First, much of that issuance is short term and likely has a large component of maturing bills which will be rolled over. You've got to look and see how many <1 year bills mature on Monday. The issuance may not be too tough to absorb.
Second, lots of CNBC types are visiting today under the banner of anonymity, criticizing TD for the implied short or non-participation they assume he and the rest of ZH readers have (which is incorrect). Of course the joke comes back to them, as few earn enough to accumulate any kind of sizeable portfolio, and without a doubt they will miss the turn. And of the few who have a little lucre, either ill-gotten or by marriage, a rich asshole is still an asshole. Money can't buy a personality. The camera doesn't lie.
Point noted. However CIT's problem is about rolling over debt.
Why can't CIT roll over debt? Should be easy enough.
Or... did you really not state the actual problem?...
From Fisher Statement....
Yet "I am aware some will argue that laying out our arsenal is not
enough; we need to convince markets we have the nerve to deploy it in a
timely fashion" Fisher said. "But I would not doubt our resolve. We
know full well that monetary policy trickles in with a lag and that we
will have to `pull the trigger` of tightening policy well before it is
politically convenient."
In addition while some still call for the Fed to expand its
purchases of U.S. Treasury Securities Fisher voiced his opposition to
this idea saying "/i believe we have come as close as we dare to the
line between acceptable and unacceptable risk in this regard and do not
personally wish for us to expand or extend our purchases of Treasuries
beyond the cumulative $300 billion planned by this fall."
LOL... The Fed wants inflation worse than I want Alba.
But who knows ... maybe they'll tighten a little just to try to make a point ... and that could send the market skyrocketing on expectations, even in the face of wide scale deflation... hmnn... I wonder if they have the "resolve" (cajones) to try it? The market's already completely separated from reality - so I guess why not?
Bernanke and Summers ignore Fisher. He's been marginalized in this debate.
he was a trial balloon....it is nothing more than
yipyap from the peanut gallery.
Naw... everybody wants treasuries! Hold your nose & understand they're the best "safety" out there ... and get 'em now before the next (soon... maybe?) flight to (ahem) "quality".
Inflation indeed ... with all that debt to deflate? I don't think so...
The way I see it, the market is Charlie Brown. And Goldman is Lucy ... and about the pull back the football again. Whoops - gotcha again, Charlie!
Tyler,
>> maybe I should post something true about Raiffeisen bank
yeah, how about posting something true
from what i hear responses to ZH are over in Wien I do that a little too often. wink wink :)
why this talk about Wien ?
you should check that IP again..
a good conspiracy story about HF traders
manipulating the bond and equity markets
by flat lining CIT needs people with
misleading IP adreses of course 8-)
PS: pretty obvious why your captcha is about negative numbers ...
spot on on the captcha. and i will look again, and check it twice 8-)
Why don't you tell us YOUR name smartypants? I'm sure you got nothin to hide.
If everything is normal, why is the Fed Funds rate at zero? This admin. says, "We need to get away from the boom and bust cycles of the past." Bullshit. They are attempting to blow the biggest one yet.
Looking at this aggressive schedule, I cannot help but think that US Govt. has good reason to believe that creditors/holders of capital are about to bail on the United States en masse - which would also explain the "I-pissed-my-pants" look on Benny boy's face the other day at the hearing. I think there is a major blowup headed our way and the US Govt./Fed know it - perhaps they know that the dollar is about to crash in a spectacular fashion OR they could be planning to devalue it themselves (ala FDR). Perhaps interest rates are about to skyrocket? Whatever it is, I think they are trying to sell as many treasuries as soon as possible (i.e. extract as much money as possible from all those stupid enough to buy this toilet-paper) before the blowup happens. PIMCO's recent favorable comments regarding long dated treasuries should be seen as a red herring - an attempt to line up bag-holders for the treasury market and nothing else.
If everyone is going into equities who is left to buy the 'safe' stuff?
Equities are safest thing out there ask GS!! All in for the spectacular recovery!!!
>> If everyone is going into equities who is left to buy the 'safe' stuff?
I'm happily buying the safe stuff now, and will gladly sell it to you in the future, for a price.
I think I see the strings attached to the $500 trillion (er billion.. hard to keep them straight anymore) that noone (at least the FED) knows where it went or what it was for.... When (if) they burn through that propping up the T Bill market, we will be talking about a new round stimulus or other measures. Probably timable...Amount sold - real interest = fake money used (by whom,or is it who)..... And of course the presses are running, at least someone is getting overtime.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2009/0716.html
someone else thinking along the same lines.
by Jim Willie, CB. Editor, Hat Trick Letter ...
"The major question unasked and unanswered is whether the USFed gave foreign central banks the USDollars with which to bid up the USTreasurys at auction. My belief is obviously yes, for three reasons. First, the USFed was struggling at auctions with rising bond yields and bad publicity. Second, the process was applying sufficient pressure to their own stable of primary bond dealers, which was sitting on over $360 billion in gradually lower quality bond inventory, to bring down their own dealer network. Dresdner Kleinwort exited the dealer network, but two Canadian big banks entered (or are entering) the dealer network motivated by grave stupidity. See Toronto Dominion and Royal Bank of Canada. Third, they have the means, they have the ability, they have the sway, they have the bold defiant arrogance. The US banker syndicate can rejigger the Indirect Bidder definition, but that is but a small smokescreen that fades by noontime. Notice how Indirect Bidders (largely foreign central banks) grabbed over half the USTreasury supply with a participation rate of 54% in a recent purchase of $18.878 billion of the $35 billion for sale.
............
So the answer to the riddle appears to be HIDDEN MONETIZATION. If foreign central banks used their own money, a strong USDollar response would surely have come, since the volume of the USTreasury auctions each week is larger than the typical monthly volume a year ago. Would the USFed set up accounts in foreign locations for the purpose of bidding on its own USTBonds secretly? Obviously yes. They already set up vast USDollar Swap Facilities last October in foreign locations. This ugly deception will leak out in time."
(hope I formatted correctly)
70 day CMBs, $30 billion (tomorrow)
13 week Bills, $32 billion (July 27th)
26 week Bills, $31 billion (July 27th)
52 week Bills, $27 billion (July 28th)
2 year Notes, $42 billion (July 28th)
5 year Notes, $39 billion (July 29th)
7 year Notes, $28 billion (July 30th)
19 year, 6 month TIPS (reopened), $6 billion (July 27th)
Sucker bulls...LOL
If the blocks were green, they could be mistaken as green shootz.
Here is a thought, and I hope some of y'all check it out to see what I'm seeing.
I noticed the failed head-n-shoulders in the S&P looked a LOT like the same failed move in the EURUSD a week or two before. So when I looked at a chart of 10yr yields I saw something that looked strikingly familiar from currencyland.
Look at the AUDUSD and the move it made from late Feb to late April. After some staggered moves higher it looked like the appreciation was about to break down around April 18. But it just turned out to be a case of higher lows and the rocketship took off from there.
The amplitude of moves in the 10yr chart are greater, but I see the exact same patterns looking from early April to today. If the equity markets move even a pinch higher from here and it is met with rising yields on the longer maturities I'd be very worried that the 1987 crunch scenario is back on the table.
this 229t usd immolation of the usd and economy is planned, planned, planned - it is not the result of inept economic thinking....although my comment is a bit off topic i will repeat my warnings of a bank holiday later this year....my sources continue to confirm that the massive shipment of usd to foreign embassies for local currency conversion is real and has happened....it anticipates a short bank holiday preceding a much longer one....the short closing is a trial for the real thing....if you are in dollars you are wrong....if your money is in the bank you are wrong....nothing but complete conquest of the usa is the goal of the plutocracy.....save any comments about tin foil - it is a juvenile debating technique.....
the takeover has been planned in conjunction with cia and usa military officers with whom bernie madoff worked.....he is a cia conduit ripping off the wealthy to fund supranational government which is why his trial was behind closed doors....it is my unconfirmed belief that jay rockefeller iv is a key mover and explains the use of kenyan/indonesian citizen barry soetero as a tool for the extreme makeover.....
This will not end well. You do not put that type of number up without a plan OR anticipation of other worldly events about to occur. In other words, watch the Middle East; events are underway there quite under the radar of the zipperheads at Bubblevision.....
Tyler,
A statistical analysis of market movement comparing bond sale days versus non-sale days during the last few months would be interesting. I struggled through Biometry but I'll bet Marla could come up with the appropriate test/regression.
But it's only around $80 billion in new borrowing. Chump change.
Market going to blast off tomorrow. 1060 here we come. The remaining bears are going to capitulate tomorrow. Does anyone think they are going to be holding on to their short positions over the weekend? Goldman Sachs pulled a masterstroke with that H&S pattern. Gotta give it to them. I am out. Back to corporate bonds. They are too good.