$24.5 Trillion In US National Debt, $144 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities In... 2015

Tyler Durden's picture

By now everyone has seen and played with the US debt clock via usdebtclock.org whereby anyone who so wishes, can find every little detail about America's current sad fiscal state. The fact that America currently has just under $14 trilllion in national debt should be no surprise to anyone who professes to having an even modest interest in the state of the US economy. Yet a new feature on the "debt clock", namely one which extrapolates future debt at current rates of advancement (instead of one based on the always completely inaccurate CBO estimates), and looks at US debt in the year 2015 will probably make many stop dead in the their tracks. If anyone thought that $14 trillion in 2010 debt is bad, just wait until we hit $24.5 trillion in total US national debt in 2015. And it gets even more surreal: total US Unfunded Liabilities are estimated at $144 trillion, roughly $1.2 million per taxpayer... Was that a pin dropping?

As Zero Hedge has long been predicting, we anticipate roughly $2 trillion in incremental debt per year. Surprisingly we are not far too off from where the "debt clock" sees US leverage in 5 years. At an estimated $24.5 trillion in federal debt, our $2 trillion per year run rate is spot on. Another thing that is spot on: our prediction that the US will need not one but two debt ceiling increases in 2011. And probably 6-8 over the next 5 years.

Some other observations for the US economy in 2015 simply assuming current conditions persist:

  • Federal spending will be $3.3 trillion per year, and with federal revenue of $2.3 trillion (this number will be reduced as it also assumes $731 billion in payroll tax, a number which will likely be indefinitely reduced) the result is a budget deficit of $983.7 billion.
  • Annual Medicare/Medicaid expenses will be just over $1 trillion
  • US population: 326.8 million
  • US workforce 131.3 million (and declining)
  • Officially unemployed: 19.4 million
  • Actual unemployed: 22.3 million
  • State/Federal employees: 17.9 million
  • People on SSN and other retirees: 72.6 million

And the most critical data:

  • Food stamp recipients: 89.7 million
  • Foreclosures: 2 million
  • Social Security Liability: $19 trillion
  • Medicare Liability: $99 trillion
  • Total US Unfunded Liabilities: $144 trillion
  • Gross Debt to GDP: 143%

Should one of the bolded predictions hit, the travails of Greek and Irish bondholders will be nothing compared to what those unlucky enough to be in possession of US debt in 2015 will have to go through.

h/t Justin

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Max Hunter's picture

Tic Toc Bitchez!

66Sexy's picture

If we owe 1.2 million each, and are on the books as taxpayers (have filed returns), then we do not own our homes. We do not own our cars, nor our stocks. Anything that can be taken with the stroke of a lawyers pen or a bought off legislators whim, we do not own. They will take it from us in the event they have to. The only thing you can truly own is what you can hide, and what can be sold as a valuable commodity internationally.

Use your imagination on that one.

primefool's picture

Truth . Strangely - it may turn out that the only thing you ctruly own, is what you can hide , which is indeed your imagination.

edwardscpa's picture

How much is that per taxpayer earning over $100K?  Over $250K?  Because let's face it, folks with income under $100K are going to need to concentrate on feeding themselves in the years to come.

hambone's picture

Let's say 5m households make in excess of $250k annually (only about 2.5% of total households but lets be generous as many more have that income but wiggle out w/ loopholes). 

Without further ado, another ridiculous number for ya:

5 million taxpayers * $4.9 million = $24.5T for a one time payoff of 2015 projected debt.

Probably will look a lot better if we include the $100k "rich" crowd as well:

10 million taxpayers * $2.45 million each (phewww, that looks a whole lot better).

BTW - @ $2.45m, if it were a 30yr fixed debt at 0%, it would only be $6805/mo per every 10 million taxpayers.  Wouldn't do a thing about the unfunded liabilities but whatever.

What's that, say you don't want to pay it off and just finance it - now we're talking!!!  That's $12,500 per taxpayer annually just to pay interest (assuming 100m taxpayers and 5% financing cost...the average for the last 50yrs).

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I would rather have hard assets that throw off cash.  XOM, CVX, etc...

traderjoe's picture

Owning a stock is not a "hard" asset. It's a fraction of ownership of a publicly traded company that is denominated in dollars, typically held in "street name". Your counter-parties are:

1. the company and its management;

2. the brokerage company that holds the shares and SIPC that 'guarantees' the brokerage company;

3. the government and its taxation and regulatory policies; and

4. the government and its estate taxation policies.

That's just the obvious, I'm sure that others can think of other counter-parties. Not that owning stocks is bad, but I personally don't consider them 'hard' assets. 

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

If you own XOM then you own part of their global oil reserves and one of the best managed corporations with a rock solid balance sheet.  Furthermore, as an owner, you are given a decent share in the profits (dividend).  I wouldn't buy at current prices, but it is definitely on my radar. 

Stocks are a great investment with the proper due diligence and at the right price.  Personally, I will buy stocks when the dividend yield on the S&P 500 goes over 5%.  No major bear market has ever ended without it going over 6%.  By that measure, we are far from a bottom.  I am patient.

Hephasteus's picture

The stock market is unsecured credit line to the corporations. They can wipe you to NOTHING without any fear of retribution other than making you not want to be an unsecured creditor in the future. Calling it a hard asset is tragecomedy.

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Not if you do proper due diligence and buy ownership in the right businesses at the right price.

FreedomGuy's picture

I just threw away a USA Today article from the early 2000's when it was only about $400k per person. Our absolute f*^@% idiot legislators have sold us...our lives, our property and indirectly our civil rights/liberties to pass out checks, favors and socialist pablum. The truth is that we will NOT pay that kind of debt and we cannot pay it outside of a rapacious inflation rate. Personally, I have to believe that most like the Fed, the Treasury and others in government know this. There is no personal or political freedom when your tax rate is 100% as it effectively is.

Roger O. Thornhill's picture

What will be really exciting is when interest rates start cranking up on that debt! Those burying us alive are not being properly forthcoming of the disaster that will happen when rates get out of control. Similarly it's the same way MBS's were sold with the conceit that real estate prices never go down. Ah, those "geniuses" with MBA's! They never fail to amaze.

The real question is how far they can play this - I know that they will play games all the way to the end. I would not be surprised in some 11th hour financial power play that lock world currencies together - who can say what they will do. TPTB have shown they have no respect for the rule of law, or the free market. I have been shocked and surprised at what they have done so far. I thought in 2008 that the adults would step up and let this sort itself out, but the adults don't exist anymore. What evil machinations they may think up next may well be surprising - but know that they are fully capable of an array of insane, deceitful maneuvers.

Grimbaldus The Norman's picture

The things you own, end up owning you.

Rainman's picture

...agree, unless you just let it all get repo'd. The economic system now apparently runs on good-til-cancelled.

Oh regional Indian's picture

And thus, in these times, more than most, the practice of detachment...

 

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/the-practice-of-detachment/

 

ORI

 

 

Things that go bump's picture

That has always been the case, you know.  All you have to do to prove that is stop paying your property tax and see what happens.  Nothing has really changed.  You don't really own anything you can't hide and you never did.  What you purchase is the use of a thing.  The State retains ownership of all.  I imagine they think they own your gold too, and will thank you nicely for keeping it safe for them when they want it back.      

Grimbaldus The Norman's picture

I've never, even since I was a wee lad, held onto the ridiculous concept of ownership of property. I don't get attached to 'things'. I've always been borderline chaotic anti-materialism.. I couldn't even tell you why, just seemed the right way to be...

The few things I do have, other than Family, I'm willing to part with without much fanfair.

'Stuff' can become a trap which can be hard to escape from, once well established. I choose not to let it get that bad.

Farcical Aquatic Ceremony's picture

Two people junked these statements? Unreal.

Grimbaldus The Norman's picture

It is what it is. I don't expect anyone to agree with me, just so long as they respect my POV.

minus dog's picture

You already don't own your home - at this point the government can seize it for pretty much any reason.  Your only own your stocks as long as the government decides not to seize them or render them worthless.

They can take your car, too, (and without due process) by claiming that you might have used it for something illegal.  It's up to you to shell out the cash to lawyer up and get it back - if you can, after a year or two of legal wrangling.

On the bright side, at least they have to catch your car before taking it...

bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

You know what would be cool?  If stansburry put a godamn pause button on an HOUR video.  FUCK.

Azannoth's picture

Yes and the vidoe was a bit self serving too I know

Dental Floss Tycoon's picture

If you click the text it will stop.  Click again and it continues.

About half way through I figured out I had been spammed.  Not that he is wrong just trying to make a buck.

Sudden Debt's picture

Good thing is that this national debt clock is made in FLASH

 

99.9% OF THE POPULATION WILL NEVER KNOW WHAT IT SAYS BECAUSE OF THEIR IPADS!!!!

 

 

Millivanilli's picture

Ipads are notebook amputees.  What a fuckin useless idea. Though, I imagine if steve jobs shit, apple devotees would smear it on their ipads as a screen saver.

unununium's picture

On the bright side, it's a better Kindle.

DarkAgeAhead's picture

I hate Kindle.  The name, the thing, and the people that use it.

Did I tell you how much I hate Kindle?

andybev01's picture

'Kindle' sounds too much like kindling, as in book burning.

Janice's picture

I keep waiting for the Kotex marketing executives to come out with the new slogan,

"Kotex, the original ipad."

blindfaith's picture

no 99.9 worn't know because there can't or don't read and don't want to.  Merrily we sail along, Sara or someone else will save us all.

Slavery is knocking on the door, but they think the knock is for you... not them.

Isn't everyone glad about the no tax bill that got passed.  Think of all the worthless dollars we can bury in the backyard to make the roses grow or use for padding for those boxes of goodies you sold on eBay for millions of worthless dollars, no sorry, Paypal points.

midtowng's picture

Speaking of math, look at the liabilities line. Note how Medicare liabilities are FIVE TIMES as large as Social Security liabilities. Yet all we are talking about is Social Security, not Medicare. Why is that?

Common_Cents22's picture

debt isnt debt until they come repo your car and kick you out of your home!  hehe

blindfaith's picture

if the US government cracked down on the Medicare & Medicade Fraud in Florida the number would be 1/3 that.  But what the hell, we don't want to take away anyone rice bowl.

Kurtieboy's picture

Why doesn't the government give $1 million to each citizen right now and cut the bullshit? Economy would definatly improve...lol.

andybev01's picture

...and the next morning you would wake up to $50.00 latte's and $100.00 Happy Meals.

sterling effort's picture

..and the next morning you would wake up to $50.00 latte's and $100.00 Happy Meals.

Thats ok. Ill pay for them with my $30,000 oz gold.


plocequ1's picture

1.2 Million? I dont have the money. Now what? I will pray.

jahbless's picture

try sending them a picture of a spider instead.

blindman's picture

this is a great link and analogous to the

taxpayer's obligation regarding the "national debt". 

it is denominated in funny money or spider money already.

CPL's picture

It's from www.dontevenreply.com

 

The guys blog is an endless stream of insane and funny dialogues.  This is my favorite.

http://www.dontevenreply.com/view.php?post=95

The humane way to trap a cat...with a bear trap.

doggings's picture

ah 27bslash6.com - pure genius

Simon's pie charts, quite possibly the funniest thing on the whole internet.

plocequ1's picture

Gunnery SGT Hartman says i can give my heart to Jesus, But my ass belongs to the corp