$24.5 Trillion In US National Debt, $144 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities In... 2015

Tyler Durden's picture

By now everyone has seen and played with the US debt clock via usdebtclock.org whereby anyone who so wishes, can find every little detail about America's current sad fiscal state. The fact that America currently has just under $14 trilllion in national debt should be no surprise to anyone who professes to having an even modest interest in the state of the US economy. Yet a new feature on the "debt clock", namely one which extrapolates future debt at current rates of advancement (instead of one based on the always completely inaccurate CBO estimates), and looks at US debt in the year 2015 will probably make many stop dead in the their tracks. If anyone thought that $14 trillion in 2010 debt is bad, just wait until we hit $24.5 trillion in total US national debt in 2015. And it gets even more surreal: total US Unfunded Liabilities are estimated at $144 trillion, roughly $1.2 million per taxpayer... Was that a pin dropping?

As Zero Hedge has long been predicting, we anticipate roughly $2 trillion in incremental debt per year. Surprisingly we are not far too off from where the "debt clock" sees US leverage in 5 years. At an estimated $24.5 trillion in federal debt, our $2 trillion per year run rate is spot on. Another thing that is spot on: our prediction that the US will need not one but two debt ceiling increases in 2011. And probably 6-8 over the next 5 years.

Some other observations for the US economy in 2015 simply assuming current conditions persist:

  • Federal spending will be $3.3 trillion per year, and with federal revenue of $2.3 trillion (this number will be reduced as it also assumes $731 billion in payroll tax, a number which will likely be indefinitely reduced) the result is a budget deficit of $983.7 billion.
  • Annual Medicare/Medicaid expenses will be just over $1 trillion
  • US population: 326.8 million
  • US workforce 131.3 million (and declining)
  • Officially unemployed: 19.4 million
  • Actual unemployed: 22.3 million
  • State/Federal employees: 17.9 million
  • People on SSN and other retirees: 72.6 million

And the most critical data:

  • Food stamp recipients: 89.7 million
  • Foreclosures: 2 million
  • Social Security Liability: $19 trillion
  • Medicare Liability: $99 trillion
  • Total US Unfunded Liabilities: $144 trillion
  • Gross Debt to GDP: 143%

Should one of the bolded predictions hit, the travails of Greek and Irish bondholders will be nothing compared to what those unlucky enough to be in possession of US debt in 2015 will have to go through.

h/t Justin

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velobabe's picture

why do they call woman's breasts, J U G s?

StychoKiller's picture

I calls 'em Daddy's play-toys!

Strider52's picture

"Using the figures above..." That's pretty funny, considering Tex's avatar is just above that line.

  I'd like to use the figures above Tex's avatar - which, I noticed, got cropped recently - she had a pretty face too.

StychoKiller's picture

Google up "Karina Hart" or "Danni Ashe" -- every bit as sexy as Denise Milani (or whatever), and willing to show ya everything!

Fearless Rick's picture

Hey, I know those knobs! Cynthia Myers, Playboy playmate December 1968. According to some, the greatest centerfold ever. Ms. Myers starred in some Russ Meyer flicks, like "Beyond the Valley of the Dolls" and a few others.

Cursive's picture


Shameful's picture

1.2 million per taxpayer...no problem.  They should be able to make that over their natural lives, just need a 100% tax rate and put in a little OT.

Sudden Debt's picture

I think they'll let you have 0,1% so you'll be able to buy a bowl of rice every 2 days.

SheepDog-One's picture

But...but...economy recovered! Can I get a 'Hooray'?

Amish Hacker's picture

You think 6-8 debt ceiling increases over the next 5 years spell disaster? Wait till you see what happens when congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, who even thinks the debt ceiling increase in Jan is some surefire in-the-bag deal?? I dont.


SD1, That's the first thing you ever said that I thought was whacko.

Me XMan's picture

HAHAHA! Congress will always raise the debt ceiling.

Sudden Debt's picture

you may put always in capital, fat and underline.

SheepDog-One's picture

Congress will 'ALWAYS' raise the debt ceiling by a couple trillion? Thats just ignorant.

Popo's picture

The power of debt markets is so poorly understood...

Dr. No's picture

One thing for sure, the debt ceiling will be used for political leverage.  Both party leaders want the ceiling raised rather than cut spending.  But with the election results, the Repubs have an opportunity to use a debt ceiling increase to their advantage.  There will be bluffs, deals, pandering to get it passed.  Boehner is old school GOP and wants the debt celing increased as much as dems; but he will leverage it for as much as he can.

Shameful's picture

So the ceiling increase will go with more money to the military to kill people around the world.  Smooth.  It's a good idea to piss off as many people as possible before we had a debt implosion, wouldn't want friends in the moments after the collapse.

Amish Hacker's picture

This is the key point. The debt ceiling will be raised (it has to be), but not until the politicos have postured and ranted and waved their arms about. Accusations will be made, blame will be hurled, straw men will be set up and knocked down, and the end result will be another huge waste of time.

Really, none of it would matter, except that time is the most serious shortage we face.

StychoKiller's picture

Darn it!  And I was so looking forward to gridlock Kabuki!

UninterestedObserver's picture

No shit next he'll be saying Congress is going to give themselves pay cuts and reduce their benefits and then cut their expense budgets too.

trav7777's picture

nothing will happen.

Anymore than not having a budget this year or Belgium not even having a government.

As long as the people shrug and take it, nothing matters

johnnymustardseed's picture

The guy who sells the government ink for printing dollars is laughing!

SheepDog-One's picture

Funny part is, they dont even have to buy ink or paper for this daily 'printing' at 0%, they just add some more decimal points on a screen.

The Navigator's picture

Then the answer is to invest in makers of wide, wide computer monitors that will accommodate those long list of 0's - 000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

FreedomGuy's picture

Could we start a pool on when we cross a quadrillion? I think it would have been fun to do back in the early 80's on when we'd cross trillions in debt on an annual basis.

iDealMeat's picture

+1  I bet we'll start seeing calculators with a 000 button on them.

Shameful's picture

Scientific notation FTW!  Will be able to tell all the kids in school off when they ask

"When will I ever need to know scientific notation?"

"When you try to buy a loaf of bread"

Just wait till they have to upgrade systems to use quad floating point instead of double.  After all double will only carry to about 1 * 10^308 :)

WaterWings's picture


Did someone just say .308?

UninterestedObserver's picture

Yeah this article is reminding me that I need more

doomandbloom's picture

isn't creation of money just adding bits on the hard drive at the push of a button?

no more printing..its all electronic...

cant wait to get my hands on the Facebook credits.....my farm will be the best.

jahbless's picture

that got a small lulz from me - thx.  Gallows humour in dispicable times.

traderjoe's picture

And that's why BB can say he's not "printing" money. 

Oh regional Indian's picture

Exactly TJ.

You see, these guys are not evolutionists but creationists.

Now we can all understand better when they say they are doing "God's" work. An angry god's work at that.

Can they create PM's though?

We'll see.




SheepDog-One's picture

Oh yea 1 more thing, the REALLY funny part of the ACTUAL money printing they attempt with $100 billion in these new supercool BennieBux...they cant even get THAT right and screwed up the whole batch! Probably cost us about $120 billion to print that $100 billion which now much be thrown in the incinerator.

sodbuster's picture

>Was that a pin dropping?<

Nope- that was me shitting myself.

Popo's picture

Me too. But I'm so freaked out, I think I shat a pin!

Hephasteus's picture

The FBI is searching through your shit. Something about a Waddle and Reed in a haystack.

Dr. No's picture

I appreciate this enhancement.  Previously, i would have conversations with head-in-the-sand older realatives (close relatives), who are the first out-of-the-pan boomers, about SS/Medicare funding.  Their eyes would glaze over as they couldnt understand the meaning.  After providing a quick "well if the government wouldnt rob the SS fund to pay the general fund..." retort, they would move on to "i cant believe they want to lower taxes..."

I point out that the money is gone - water under the bridge, look forward, not backward.  Second, I tell them with the numbers the way they are, they could cut taxes to zero or increase them to 100% with the same outcome - default. 

With this new debt counter I may be able to get them to look at the numbers themselves in order to adjust to the inevitable.  I do not expect a change in thought however.

A Texan's picture

"Second, I tell them with the numbers the way they are, they could cut taxes to zero or increase them to 100% with the same outcome - default. "


So why pay taxes?  After all, Bennie can just miracle up a few hundred billion anytime he wants, and what's a few hundred more or less in the overall scheme of things.


No, SERIOUSLY, why the fuck should my kids pay taxes for debts they never voted for (or had the chance to), for goods and services that didn't benefit them in any way?  Why should they, or anyone in their generation?  Fuck it, why should I?  After all, I've gotten virtually zero benefit out of it (save student loan guarantees, long since paid back in full, and the DoD, which generally does a good job of keeping those who want to hurt us very far away, and sometimes dead and far away).  Really, what benefit do I get for my taxes?


There's going to be a BIG tax revolt in this country sometime soon, and that is when the entire system will fall apart - all because of the leechfucks and their enablers.

primefool's picture

Correct - agreed. This idea that we are passing along huge debts to the grandchildren is laughable. The grandkids will just refuse to honor you stoopid leetle obligations - there. 

FreedomGuy's picture

Don't count on that. Our kids and grandkids have been government educated in the stoopid leetle ideas of collectivism and government as savior. It could break either way.

Dr. No's picture

Which is why I am for the tax cut.  Might as well gets some purchasing power while the gettin is good.

Dr_Dazed's picture

I pay taxes because I like having a virgin butt.  Stop paying and you get a free taxpayer  sponsored vacation to Club Fed.

sabra1's picture

tonite the americans will fire a missile into south korea, tell them the north did it, and all will be well again!