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$24.5 Trillion In US National Debt, $144 Trillion In Unfunded Liabilities In... 2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now everyone has seen and played with the US debt clock via usdebtclock.org whereby anyone who so wishes, can find every little detail about America's current sad fiscal state. The fact that America currently has just under $14 trilllion in national debt should be no surprise to anyone who professes to having an even modest interest in the state of the US economy. Yet a new feature on the "debt clock", namely one which extrapolates future debt at current rates of advancement (instead of one based on the always completely inaccurate CBO estimates), and looks at US debt in the year 2015 will probably make many stop dead in the their tracks. If anyone thought that $14 trillion in 2010 debt is bad, just wait until we hit $24.5 trillion in total US national debt in 2015. And it gets even more surreal: total US Unfunded Liabilities are estimated at $144 trillion, roughly $1.2 million per taxpayer... Was that a pin dropping?

As Zero Hedge has long been predicting, we anticipate roughly $2 trillion in incremental debt per year. Surprisingly we are not far too off from where the "debt clock" sees US leverage in 5 years. At an estimated $24.5 trillion in federal debt, our $2 trillion per year run rate is spot on. Another thing that is spot on: our prediction that the US will need not one but two debt ceiling increases in 2011. And probably 6-8 over the next 5 years.

Some other observations for the US economy in 2015 simply assuming current conditions persist:

  • Federal spending will be $3.3 trillion per year, and with federal revenue of $2.3 trillion (this number will be reduced as it also assumes $731 billion in payroll tax, a number which will likely be indefinitely reduced) the result is a budget deficit of $983.7 billion.
  • Annual Medicare/Medicaid expenses will be just over $1 trillion
  • US population: 326.8 million
  • US workforce 131.3 million (and declining)
  • Officially unemployed: 19.4 million
  • Actual unemployed: 22.3 million
  • State/Federal employees: 17.9 million
  • People on SSN and other retirees: 72.6 million

And the most critical data:

  • Food stamp recipients: 89.7 million
  • Foreclosures: 2 million
  • Social Security Liability: $19 trillion
  • Medicare Liability: $99 trillion
  • Total US Unfunded Liabilities: $144 trillion
  • Gross Debt to GDP: 143%

Should one of the bolded predictions hit, the travails of Greek and Irish bondholders will be nothing compared to what those unlucky enough to be in possession of US debt in 2015 will have to go through.

h/t Justin

 

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Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:41 | 819021 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

the Fed is trying to monetize the debt in order to dig us out of this hole.  Why would they bother if this is all "exaggeration"?  Look at the pridce of every real asset (save housing) and commodities. up and going higher, and certainly not because they've all been touted on ZH.   mOnetization through dollar destruction is not a response to exaggeration.

Your steak for the barbie this summer is going to cost twice what it cost last summer.  Any one else see the move in Feeder Cattle today?  Is that a new all time high?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:35 | 818997 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

the Prescription Drug liability is right now at 19.5 trillion USD.

in 2015 everyone will be drugged up to their eyeballs,

just to put another cocktail mix of Prozac and Viagra on their credit cards.

most people I know are on prescription Drugs and with everyone on anaesthetics -

no wonder this whole fucking system is falling apart .

25 trillion by 2015 will not cover the cost .

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:40 | 819015 primefool
primefool's picture

The gradkids will have a nice bonfire of all our stoopid leetle obligation - have a party and make comic books about some bearded guy called Ben way back in 2010. And when the chinese grand kids come waving some yellowing piece of paper stating they are owed trillions of Dollars - our grandkids will look up the meaning of "dollars" on Google and have a nivce laugh. They may even - just to be nice - print up some stuff based on historical images of the ancient "Dollar" and give it to the chinese grandkids - ya know to be neighborly and all.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:07 | 819985 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

That is funny except half the world will be glass at that point - do you really think they spent almost 100 million for a seed vault in Greenland because TPTB know there is a good chance the next war, which will probably be caused from what is happening now, will involve quite a bit of radiation along with the deaths of at least half the worlds population?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:42 | 819023 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"Bring us your porketh, your lardeth, your TARPeth, your TALFeth, your QEeth, your POMOeth, your rollie pollies of expenditures and entitlements and stimulus, and we shall approve all in the name of 'green shooteths' and 'recovery'."

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:55 | 819056 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Lady Liberty's crown has been melted down to form debt shackles.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:41 | 819025 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

To quote Cheney: "Fuck the Deficit!"

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:42 | 819028 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I am so weary of hearing these cockholsters...where do we get these morons? Do they have a secret finishing school for pollyanna spin.

I am rearranging my portfolio. Fifty percent PM, I am going to hope that Ron Paul puts the brakes on QE3. If that happens...we are gonna make a shit ton of worthless cash.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:17 | 819130 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

You won't have to rearrange your portfolio, the government is doing it for you - just hold on to ANYTHING paper and your PM stock will be 100% of your portfolio.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:43 | 819031 tim73
tim73's picture

Americanos! Welcome to the....real America! You are going to experience your very first hyperinflation. That is so cute! Cherish that moment!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:50 | 819045 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

Collapse is not guarentted folks!

I hope no one is getting their hopes up.

This can and will go on for at least another Decade... I think much longer.

US debt to GDP is only 90% and its the largest economy on earth. Japan is at 200%.

Don't be sitting on the edge of your seat everyday waiting for the "shoe" to drop. You might just end up looking like the poor lonley Knight in the Grial Room in the 3rd installment in the Indian Jones franchise! 400+ years and still nothing

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DGFuHC75aY

Nothing is coming, folks! lol

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:07 | 819100 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

The trolls finally arrived. 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:29 | 819159 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I'd give it 5 years tops.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:11 | 819672 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

2011 will be pure hell. Hope youre ready gloomboom.

BTW your statement 'US is largest economy on earth' is pure rubbish...may have been true 15 years ago but now we're nothing but a shell...75% Borrow to Consume economic model....youre delusional man we make nothing except for our #1 export-debt, and #2 export-jobs. Largest economy my ass.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:39 | 819741 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Exactly.  If you meaure wealth by what is actually produced, China is already kicking our ass in food, energy, manufacturing and mines.  Once the FIRE economy implodes it will be obvious just how weak we have become.  You only have so much of the farm you can sell off before the creditors take title.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:51 | 819046 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

All the pieces of shit in government and on Wall Street are pushing the 'economic sweet spot' story hard through their media proxies this week - I've never seen the bullshit, diametrically opposite of reality, piled so high and far.

We are witnessing nothing less than a momentous and historic sheeple shearing preparatory operation unfold in real time, here.

The barb wire perimeter is going up, the ATVs are being fueled, border collies are being unleashed and those electric trimmers are being unpacked.

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:10 | 819993 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

You had me until the unleashing the border collies part - fuck get presa canarios if you want dogs that will literally rip someone apart

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:51 | 819047 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

What combination of taxes increases and economic growth is going to pay off the national debt? None. It can't be done. Tipping point passed.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:55 | 819057 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

junked you, read the post above.

Debt will not decrease. It will increase only. (Not a bad thing for the US)

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:10 | 819110 jomama
jomama's picture

i downrated your post because i want you to see my point of view.

and i wonder why i don't have any friends.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:51 | 819049 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Tomorrow morning the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will mark the winter solstice by taking an unprecedented step to expand government's reach into the Internet by attempting to regulate its inner workings. In doing so, the agency will circumvent Congress and disregard a recent court ruling.

On this winter solstice, we will witness jaw-dropping interventionist chutzpah as the FCC bypasses branches of our government in the dogged pursuit of needless and harmful regulation. The darkest day of the year may end up marking the beginning of a long winter's night for Internet freedom.

 

The FCC's Threat to Internet Freedom

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703395204576023452250748540.html

 

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:59 | 819273 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

Isn't the only door being closed here is the big ISP's freedom to slam the door on any competition? The argument that this will stifle new capital, innovation I say is BS. Tell me how ZH exists in a closed Internet. Open to correction.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:53 | 819051 primefool
primefool's picture

Debt obligations across generations or across Oceans - are meaningles. They cannot be enforced. ( Picture a 80 year old grandpa insisting that the kids in the neighborhood fork over all their earnings to him - based on some ancient 2010 documents - can you hear the peals of laughter?).

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:51 | 819246 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

There is a good point to your thought, but it's not grandpa who comes to collect. It's someone who looks more like a combat soldier these days than a friendly Andy Griffith type. He will NOT be laughing nor unprepared for resistance. Having said that, there could be some sort of intergenerational conflict. Actually, there should be, now in terms of legislating.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:58 | 819061 linrom
linrom's picture

LOL!

Those predictions aren't worth a grain of salt!!!  For instance, you are expecting the number of food stamp participants to more than double from 42 million to about 90 million in five years or for participation rate to increase form 14% to about 29% of population. While I am going to refrain from commenting on the likelihood of this ever becoming a reality( I am too kind), this would imply U6 of about 35%. With U6 of 35%, annual Federal receipts of $2.3 trillion would be way too optimistic: it's more than likely that they would collapse( and collapse bond debt like in 1930s), which means that forecasting future debt is an of utter futility since the most likely outcome is debt=0.

Furthermore current QE level of about annual 900 billion almost monetizes the bulk of federal deficits in its current eternity. And when you look at what's happening to total debt, it's probably growing at a rate comparable to that of 1930s-1940s.

Of course raising taxes is not an option? Right! Just a minor point, if extension of Bush era taxes, which comes to only few percentages points to around $450 billion per year, I would hate to think what would happen if we raised taxes on the rich by 10%---wow, we would have a balanced budget, no!

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:07 | 819102 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

the Debt burden is for our grand-children to sort out.

This generation will get to ride the entitlement wave just like the past several before them.

no collapse is coming for at least another decade. Possibly two.

2020 is when we can start discussing National "Debt".

Federal Reserve now holds all the debt, just like Japan. They can and still are getting away with it. So will we.

nothing is coming, got it!?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:14 | 819678 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OH gloomandoom says now is partytime, let the grandkids sort out the depression bankruptcy and debt...typical american piece of shit and we wonder WHY the country is in the shit state it is in??

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:13 | 819995 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Stop feeding the trolls

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 14:59 | 819073 jomama
jomama's picture

that's 2015, we're still in 2010 (well, almost 2011).

americans stopped looking years ahead a generation ago, so reality is being imposed on the current generation.  foresight gets shorter and shorter, just like short term bond yields that everyone with a lick of common sense won't be covered.

true change cannot and will not occur until there is a hard stop.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:08 | 819075 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Hey, listen up--Ray Charles back in town and he got 50 cents more than he can spend!  Man, let the Gooood Tiiiimes Rooolllllllll.    Milestones   Check out "Q's Jook Joint" @ 1991

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:02 | 819078 primefool
primefool's picture

yeah in 2015 or 2020 - the 40 somethings in charge will have to decide how to treat their 70somthing elders in a humane manner - without damaging the economy. Somehow , I think the 40 something guys will have the upper hand  - anyone disagree?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:03 | 819084 TDoS
TDoS's picture

Put your money in tangibles NOW.  Gold, Silver, Land, Guns, Ammo, Food, and proper shoes, boots, tools, coats, quilts, etc.

Got Hens?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:15 | 819683 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I hear that! All these people can talk about how long fantasy can be sustained, but if and when it suddenly ISNT sustained, well those not prepared are fuked. The only people who survived the great depression were those who were prepared and had sense. Not many of em around these days.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:54 | 819775 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Even if nothing dramatic happens think how great it would be to be completely self sufficient regarding food and energy production (at least to a comfortable level). People who are currently wealthy with land and a paid off mortgage, vacation homes, etc. can share in a wonderful experience with their families especially if they have children. At the very least being armed and knowing how to use it safely and effectively is a huge help to your family and your community.

Wed, 12/22/2010 - 11:29 | 823809 TDoS
TDoS's picture

Exactly! Self sufficiency is an investment in yourself, and in your family's future.  If somehow, by some horrendous miracle, the system doesn't implode, what will you have wasted?  

You'll have land, food, water, a home, and other life giving things for essentially ever.

You have to convert paper wealth into tangible wealth at some point anyway.  Why have a bunch of digits on a hard drive somewhere when you could instead have a cabin in the woods, a well, hunting grounds, and fruit trees?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:04 | 819088 primefool
primefool's picture

Also in 2020 and beyond the 40 somethings in charge will have to figure out how to deal with a bunch of annoying Asians who keep insisting that they are owed trillions of somthing called "Dollars". Nuisance value.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:06 | 819096 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

We won't get that far, for these 4 reasons:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Nm0p4vdpDs

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:09 | 819107 macholatte
Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:40 | 819204 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

Christie is a piece of shit! How dare he destroy the economy of New Jersey while his banker buddies pick up the pieces on the loot!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 16:02 | 819233 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I loved the clip where Christie told that whiny teacher to take a walk if she didn't like it.  Christie for prez!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:14 | 819115 M4570D0N
M4570D0N's picture

Not to worry. The WSJ already told us that the yield curve can not possibly be interpreted in any other way than implying sunshine, world peace and lollipops ahead.

Yield Curve Signals Growth Ahead

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870413860457602922335291586...

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:23 | 819147 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

So much money spent and we still don't even have moon bases or space marines, how boring.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:28 | 819162 primefool
primefool's picture

exactly - but not surprising . After all Bennie and his wall street hordes dont know nuttin 'bout no astrophysics, - physics etc - no nuttin like dat. All they know is how to play the bennie shuffle. He puts zeros into a laptop, they punch in appropriate codes and viola - big big bonuses are paid. So they can all continue to live in the same NY city apartments their dads lived in. 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:53 | 819250 Popo
Popo's picture

When you begin to realize that default is part of the plan, it's all much less scary.... Unless of course, you still believe you have a pension of some kind.... In which case, you haven't started to get scared yet.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:25 | 819151 deepsouthdoug
deepsouthdoug's picture

Thank You For Calling First Credit.  My Name Is Peggy.  You Are Inquiring About You Account?  Hold Please!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:27 | 819153 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Inflation or deflation will destroy the debt.  The only thing I am sure of is the government starting a war to justify it.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:56 | 819262 Popo
Popo's picture

No, a war is actually very difficult to mount in an effective manner right now. What we need is an epidemic right about now. 50% of the population dying should do the trick.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:15 | 819997 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

Yeah I hope they haven't figured that one out yet...

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:32 | 820018 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

H1N1 part duex bitchez!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:28 | 819158 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

Opportunity.......manufacture wheel barrows to haul worthless money in to buy loaf of bread...

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:34 | 819179 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Print on baby!

PRINT ON!!!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:35 | 819185 Captain Willard
Captain Willard's picture

total US Unfunded Liabilities are estimated at $144 trillion, roughly $1.2 million per taxpayer... Was that a pin dropping?

Of course, 47% of tax filers PAY NO NET FEDERAL TAXES outside Social Security. So for actual tax payers, the number is more like $2,000,000.

Just sayin'.....

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 16:33 | 819350 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

If the taxes get to onerous then people will either a) leave or b) take their business underground.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:36 | 819194 primefool
primefool's picture

The elites will have "won" so thoroughly and completely that will own and control 100% of everything - umm which will be worth exactly zero.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:45 | 819207 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

You folks gotta be a bit more optimistic, no?

Obama is now acting like a saint. Reaganomics has returned in the form of supply-side tax cuts every man woman and child in this great country we can believe in.

Even former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough is saying he cannot believe how religious Obama is getting!

Who is wrong?

*A Republican Health Bill (Romney 2012, no?) just passed and is now law.

*Supply-side tax cuts, for a decade+ of prosperity.

*Neo-COns pressing for more war with peaceful Russia and their peaceful Ally Iran (show me where they are aggressive?).

*Higher Deficits (they don't matter?)

*Ron "dead-wrong Doomer" Paul (TX-R) is now overseer of the Federal Reserve. Paul the biggest hater of the FED, even refusing to make any purchases using their worthless confetti, is now overseeing their crimes.

*Obama is about to GUT the hell out of Social Security... which has been a Republicans wet-dream for decades.

Again, why the doom? The Republicans just won by the largest majority in history! Obama is just following the 2010 election mandate.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:17 | 819998 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL if you don't like Ron Paul then you have to be the biggest douchebag on the planet next to Timmay and Benny

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:43 | 819216 mberry8870
mberry8870's picture

So?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:50 | 819236 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke's not a central banker or economist.

He's a fucking magician, making purchasing power and risk disappear.

Until he doesn't (especially the latter).

"We'll see," said the Zen Master.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:49 | 819238 What a mess_man
What a mess_man's picture

Debt - blah blah blah. 

Do you guys think Santa will bring me the iPad I asked for?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:50 | 819243 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Just watch the first minute of this speech from a lttle over 2 years ago. That was 3.5 TRILLION ago and that doesn't include an additional 8 TRILLION in backdoor bailouts from the FED, a TRILLION dollar healthcare bill, another 450 billion in UE benefits and other bailouts. 700 BIIIIILON Dollars is a staggering number she claimed? Look no further then this video to realize the trouble we are in. This was only 2 years ago and now 700 billion just sounds like chump change.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMLo7i38D58

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:22 | 819703 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People are in this Svengalli 'all is well' trance, they have Stockholm Syndrome sympathy for their captors, even love for their captors...all highly disturbing.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:38 | 820021 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Honestly Sheep, this is the first time since the crisis started that I'm actually getting nervous.  Too much " all is well" going on right now for me. I keep a good finger on the pulse and it is really starting to thump hard. Not sure what that means yet only that it will not be good for us. Got to give them a little credit for hoodwinking the masses as long as they have. All I can say is prepare yourself for the next chapter, my guess it will start with the words CHINA.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:54 | 819256 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Even that figure is conservative. On Dec. 10th, the U.S. Treasury announced that for this fiscal year, in the first two months, our deficit is 49.65% of spending. We're going into debt $1 for every $1 in revenue. We're spending twice as much as the government receives! And with the new tax deal just passed, we're on target to have a deficit of just under $2 trillion this year! The Social Security tax reduction ($120 billion) and the unemployment extension ($56 billion) will take us to the threshold of $2 for the current fiscal year, and will drive us over the 50% debt-to-spending milestone. Tyler is right on target for this year!

There is simply no way to grow our way out of this. We will have to either default or monetize the debt entirely. Either way, we're going to see economic armageddon. Pick your poison, America!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 15:57 | 819265 sbenard
sbenard's picture

It's wasn't a pin dropping! It was my JAW!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 16:15 | 819301 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I applaud ZH on addressing this issue. This is the issue that matters more than anything else going on today or tomorrow. These unsustainable debt and transfer obligations will cause conflict internally between young and old, citizen and illegals, tax payers and tax recipients (welfare, etc.), even states and Federal government not to mention international tension as we default one way or another. The Soviet Union fell without a shot because it could not sustain itself. No collectivist society can. The Chinese recognize this to a point, too. This is the stuff that creates wars, internal revolutions of various sorts and destroys any hope of prosperity or a reasonably good life.

Milton Friedman in Capitalism and Freedom argued that political freedom without economic freedom is meaningless. Essentially, if you are taxed at 100% (slavery) then your political freedom means little to nothing. When you have a government that will end up spending the entire GDP each year then the true tax rate is 100%, even if it is funded through bond issues. The real tax rate is not what you see on your IRS form. It is what the government spends each year, plus your new debt obligations. That is the real tax rate even if they keep rolling it.

I personally believe that neither the Republicans nor Democrats will fix it, either. Only the libertarian wing of the Rep. party has the right ideas (Ron Paul and allies) and will to reduce government. Most members of both parties do not fundamentally reject the form and obligations of government as it exists today. Boehner wants to return to 2008 spending levels. Great! Didn't we run a deficit that year? Does he want to eliminate one single government agency or obligation? Is a single subsidy group like farmers going to get cut off? Did he mention returning to any Constitutional limits to government? Will he cut Afghanistan or Iraqi military commitments...not to mention a hundred other places around the world? Nope. So, he and the Republicans will fail, too.

I wish every high schooler and budding young socialist idiot in college had to study these numbers, their origin and their implications. Then we would be prepared to at least receive the right answers to the problems. I wouldn't mind every retiree studying them, as well with an explanation that they never paid enough to cover their own checks, healthcare and other goodies. So quit following AARP and voting more free or subsidized shit for yourselves. Good on ZH for raising this and all the issues that feed into it from Fed currency shenanigans to government fiduciary abdication.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 16:23 | 819326 CosmicCharley
CosmicCharley's picture

So shouldn't he work for the SEC then?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 16:48 | 819373 Skeebo
Skeebo's picture

Their projections are bad, very bad.  They are projecting that Income and Payroll revenues  will decrease, but Corporate tax revenues will increase almost 400%?!?  While the GDP is $18 Trillion?

'Course the CBO project is almost as laughable with their projections that Income taxes will be almost $1 trillion higher than they are today.

Wish that site had a little better transparency on how it was generating its figures.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 18:13 | 819422 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Lets just call it a do over. Reset the whole system and reprogram our way of thinking. Just let me keep my Samsung 46" LCD  and Macbook pro. Either that or just let me sit here in my living room and stare at my reruns of The Twilight Zone  while i wait for the flood waters from E deck to come rushing in and drag me away into the depths of Hades.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:13 | 819814 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

Sounds like you and everyone else on here.

I am only 22. I work two jobs and get paid 19k a year. I am proud to be an American!

Freest country on earth. I will fight to make sure you get social security. 99% of my generation won't.

Best not make me an enemy. I am a New Deal Socialist (Kennedy Democrat).

Down with the banks and corporations, up with the middle-class. Fully funded social security starting at age 60 (yes we will need to lower the retirement age to ensure FULL EMPLOYMENT for the younger generation- mine). Medicare for all! No Fascist expensive bankrupt private insurance (They got bailed out :/)

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:20 | 819826 linrom
linrom's picture

Did you consider running for President!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:20 | 820003 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL 22! No wonder that you sound like a know it all douchebag. 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 23:22 | 820083 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Best to ignore these guys.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 00:15 | 820186 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Go to France and Greece and see how that's working out for them. Hell, in France you can retire at 58 and even earlier under some conditions. You've got 90% of Europe to study the results of New Deal Socialism not to mention the parts of it we implemented. What I wish is that folks like you (if you're being serious) all emigrated to Europe or Maoist China and let us here try this freedom thing and see how it works out. I know it's a crazy idea but I have a hunch that with enough freedom you could build the largest wealthiest highest standard of living country in the world. It's just a hunch, though. Who knows? Maybe we could find some examples in history.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 17:35 | 819471 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 18:06 | 819533 ZAlpha
ZAlpha's picture

This is nothing.  Just tax people earning over $1M at 60% for 2 years and this gets cut to nothing.

Problem solved, move along, nothing to see here.  The day of reckoning will be felt disproportionately by the wealthy who will take a little hit but do fine in subsequent years.  It is all fair since they have been benefiting from this debt disproportionately.

The masses will be behind this 100% and if the elite do not like it, they will get voted out.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 18:36 | 819578 hambone
hambone's picture

Tinfoil post of the day -

Why would a system be allowed to be driven to a collapse point?  Not only allowed but accelerated toward it?  Why wouldn't we have an energy plan or investment to replace foreign fossil fuels?  Why wouldn't we have a jobs plan to replace lost manufacturing, lost construction jobs and find full(er) employment?  Why wouldn't we have a plan to resolve unfunded liabilities and our deficits/debt instead of allowing them to reach the vertical on the parabolic curve? 

There is no credible growth path, spending cuts, tax increases, service cuts which will add up to anything other than a depression and every decision we are making makes the resultant depression that much worse.  The other option is high inflation or a hyper inflationary event...and then a depression.  The long discussed and hoped for "muddle through" isn't working out (one look at personal income minus transfer payments confirms this). 

When no conclusion makes sense, then decide which of the "nonsensical" conclusions makes least "nonsense". 

Least weird conclusion?  All of it really does point straight to 2012!  Not saying that's the "end" of life or anything but it certainly looks to have the potential to culminate something and likely initiate something else?  We certainly don't seem to be preparing to cope with our current issues and instead appear to be keeping the present situation together at all costs regardless of future negative ramifications. 

We don't seem to be preparing to have energy for a growing global population (all economic growth curves, esp. China/India premised on cheap energy that almost certainly can't be there), don't seem concerned w/ taking on ever greater debt with no plan to pay back, not concerned w/ Fed exit strategies, not concerned with the future.  How strange.

Other options could be a completely broken / corrupted political cartel which thinks no further than 2yr terms, global takeover (not sure how that one works?), or ???  But seriously, could our politicians really be THAT bad?  Incapable of understanding where this is leading...even as lowly as I think of our politicians, I find it hard to fathom they don't know what they are doing?

What does all this add up to (ok, my first answer is fuck if I know)?  I know the idea is stupid but all signals are pointing to 2012 as such a momentous time.  Like one of those stupid comet or doom movies where the gov knows something but doesn't share w/ public.  As if granting a dying cancer patient every wish cause their time is short?  Sustain the completely unsustainable but why?  Who does it serve in the long run? 

Are we being prepared for a mass die off event (human or natural caused???).  What then???

Somebody please come up with an idea that makes sense and is smarter.  I'll be glad to never post this again.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 18:43 | 819607 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Because this is the necessary conclusion of "using the equation" as Mako puts it.  Eventually, the need for exponential growth hits a brick wall called resources.

What you're seeing now and why this time is so strange is that it's the world's reserve currency going under...  a currency that permeates virtually every market world wide...

But, in the end, it's the same as others insofar as our inability to keep up with the requirement for exponential growth.  This is a phenomenon seen in other forms of life, the only difference being we have more control over our environment and, thus, our transgressions yield greater results.  Just like other forms of life, mother nature eventually tells us no and limits our capacities.  If these means the number of people on the planet...  or the spoils of our ingenuity...  either way, it is a constraint constantly staring us in the face.

In short, your answer is the principal actors benefit from keeping the charade running as long as possible...  from stealing as long as possible...  and their enterprise necessarily involves virtually all stakeholders, ultimately accepting a share of the returns to turn a blind eye and not critically examine the path.  You might consider it one giant externality. 

All of this adds up to the modern equivalent of bullshit going on for millenia...  same shit different day...  this time it just seems much more ominous because the world is so much more interconnected and we have word of our pending doom...  I suppose, to this end, we seek out a certain confirmation bias...  but, that doesn't mean we're wrong.

Hopefully we can keep our world killing technologies in check while the world's economies reset.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 18:58 | 819630 hambone
hambone's picture

Exponential growth - yeah, that's the underlying basis for all this.  Primarily exponential growth of markets (population) to allow forever greater markets rather than fighting for a finite market share.

Maybe this is simply the inflection moment when population growth, debt growth, resource growth (more and cheaper) all collide to destroy a paradigm that was always faulty but couldn't be beaten on the ascent.  Are we at the apogee or more likely we've already begun the descent.  But in a broken world where so few are self sufficient, is simple control over the minions for their daily bread the ultimate goal?  Is there an ultimate goal or simply a system careening out of control?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:18 | 819692 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The latter, but with the misconception of control...  that's the scariest part...  even TBTB are impotent to beat it (no pun intended)...  it's bigger than them...

Of course, once we get weeded back into compliance, then the control can begin anew! 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:20 | 819696 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exponential growth in fantasy is all the USA has now...really look around, hell most people are convinced Bernank is really onto somethin here and it just goes on forever. Most have no clue whats coming soon is the wipeout, plunge, FED scoops up everything and time for world war. WTF people, the FED is not your friend...the elites DONT LIKE YOU! They want you dead...and the minute they see diminishing returns at all from their little game here, they pull the rug out. You dont have years left.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 23:16 | 820070 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

This here is the crux of the matter.  They do not like us anymore than most of us don't like being in the seedy part of town surrounded by homeless people.

Robotics technology precludes the need for slave labour in manufacturing and resource extraction.  The need for laborers (outside of a servant class) is declining rapidly.  I think a mass "extermination" is coming soon.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:12 | 819994 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

normalcy bias - we refuse to see the evidence in front of our faces because it's never happened before......just like the Jews in pre-Nazi Germany - they didn't believe Hitler was 'serious' about dealing with them despite the evidence

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 00:18 | 820189 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

You know, it's interesting but most despots tell you pretty accurately what they are going to do. Then everyone acts surprised when they do it.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 23:16 | 820069 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

'Money Mechanics,' the bible of the Federal Reserve "Bank" and all who practice fractional reserve banking, basically sets forth the notion that the amount and velocity of money must increase, in perpetuity, by design, if the system is to survive.

People, when first exposed to the basic core principle of fractional reserve banking, are always taken aback at the concept that money=debt; this notion is too abstract for them, as they've been conditioned since birth to think of money as a credit, not a debt.

It's only when they understand that in this system, money really is created from nothing, and that each dollar created must from the moment of birth have a debtor responsible for it, that they begin to grasp what they found to be abstract.

The next concept that blows the novice's mind is that each dollar can literally be leveraged exponentially, 9x by the charter banks, and then again and again and again by anything/anyone borrowing those dollars, using whatever it is they purchased as collateral for more leveraged borrowing.

So, an economy having fractional reserve banking practices as its core pillar or foundation is destined to fail from its birth. The only question is and always has been the 'when.'

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 18:42 | 819601 janchup
janchup's picture

Man, the three billion we spend every week in Afghanistan is chicken-feed.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:10 | 819805 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$3 billion a week for Afghanistan opium poppy field guard wars is like 1 POOR Bernanke POMO day.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 18:47 | 819617 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Sounds like to me that instead of moving forward on merely this 'monetarist reality', we realize that that is all it is and do everything in our power to get out of it.  (not by doing what they want and getting rid of american ideals...potential fucktards)

Of course, knowing that around you are a bunch of fucktards perfectly happy pretending to live in Capitalist America, when really it's Monetarist Amerika.   

So we can have the above future, or not.  We can have much more than those 'figures' will provide, and do so without all hundreds of trillions.

How?  It's not a free lunch.

Wake up, smell the coffee, and ditch monetarism.  Cancel the bailouts.  Let the assets crash, whatever.  Just delineate between what's REAL, and what's NOT.

Here's a hint, most of what is embedded in the price of anything, even debt itself, is pure illegitimate bullshit.  Expect it to be gone.  Because only with monetarism is it here.

So cancel it. 

Do that, and those numbers are irrelevant. Because they won't end up being that.

The only reason they get like that, is because the monetarists are out of options, and the only way to make money, is doing THAT (see the list of those liabilities) again.  Their last bit of profit is doing THAT to Amerika.  Are you going to let them?  Probably.  You're one Ron Paul, Barack Obama, Rand Paul, Supply Side bullshit monetarist era away from it.

These debts aren't caused by paying for what they provide. They're caused by BAILOUTS.  By MONETARISM.  By cheap credit and derivartives.  By bogus mortgages being held up.  All of this bogus shit, is THE ONLY REASON.  THE ONLY FUCKING REASON RETARDS. NOT SPENDING on what's needed.  IT"S FOR BULLSHIT WARS. BULLSHIT MISALLOCATION BASED ON SQUID'S NEEDS.  It's pure bullshit.  When we create alot of bullshit, it flows elsewhere.  Guess what the end result is?  Hmm, broken budgets, and the negative synergy that happens in degrading, collapsing societies.

So take them out of the loop.  Build the economy on real things, not fake things..and you won't have so many FAKE STATISTICS.

Only dumbasses toe the company line on this one.  This isn't a case of 'entitlements run amok', no you fucking Sarah Palin, it's because of the BANKSTERS and THEIR BULLSHIT RULES, AND ACTIONS that fucked up the prices of things, which then lead to the imbalances that create a liability side in the hundreds of trillions.  It isn't healthcare, It isn't free cherrios for welfare receipients.  Nope.  It's the FRAUD that is inherent in EVERY MONETARY SYSTEM.  Stolen from you, and put on your dime.  Then they get you idiots to agree that cutting these programs is in your (and not the banksters....rofl) best interest.  Of course it's in the banksters best interest.  Not yours.  But tell that to any person who voted rpepublican making under 1 million a year the last 40 years.

What we need is Full FDR (FDR HATED KEYNES and wasn't one) spirit implementation of Glass-Steagall and I dare anyone to be stupid enough to think those liability figures turn out like that.  If so, The Bernank would have better credibility, as would 1975 Russian production quotas.

Peel back the layers of propoganda, and you'll find out, that still what you spout out, is still the banksters company line.  You just THINK it's patriotic.  It ain't.  There is no MONETARISM inside a true United States of America.  NONE.  The constitution FORBIDS IT. Yeah Rand and Ron Paul, supposed patriots, how do you get around that little foundation crumbler. Austrian Fascist whore.

So we can all claim that Austrian (Hapsburg) policies are the best.  Or we can just realize that some of the idiot Austrian monetarists, were a little less idiotic than Keynes policies in the SENSE that they could see what was wrong, not that Austrian policies were any better.

So instead of using a monetary system directly responsible for doing that to our liabilities, why don't we just ditch the monetary system, pass go, and collect $200.  Nothing is koom-bai-yah, but anything (except cutbacks) other than those liability numbers is a good thing, again except for fascist, monetarist, unneeded cutbacks).

Alot of dumbasses, still have quite a day of reckoning to experience.  Especially ones that think those liabilities are the result of THEM, and that they can avoid it, by cutting THEM.   Ha ha, quit being as stupid as Michelle Bachman and Harry Reid.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:13 | 819674 JabberJaw
JabberJaw's picture

"It's a Ben Bernake Christmas, buy whatever you want because you're never going to have to pay it back, get yourself a Rapture Credit card"

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:51 | 819766 honestann
honestann's picture

The correct solution.

#1:  The federal government of the USSA defaults.

#2:  The federal government of the USSA shuts down.

Problem solved.  Lesson learned == never lend to governments.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:10 | 819800 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But now we have everyone lulled into Hindu cow calmness, they love their captors and are actually cheering for the grand monetizers, certain it now goes on like this forever. Nothing can put a dent in their 'buy the dip' sunshine and lollypops.

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 16:19 | 821903 honestann
honestann's picture

Really?  You think if every city, state, federal government defaults... the fools will continue to lend them money?  I mean, the ones who still have some money.

Who knows, perhaps [self-proclaimed] authority worship really is that enticing to some fools.  If so, that's why we need to shut down governments entirely.  They are sooooo obsolete.  Actually, they were always obsolete.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 19:56 | 819779 Birddog
Birddog's picture

Has anyone heard from David Walker, former US Comptroller lately, or has he made his escape?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:15 | 819815 Rainman
Rainman's picture

...heads the Peterson Foundation last I heard. Keeps repeating...." I told them, I told them .....".

Nice looking bird dog avatar, Birddog. German Shorthair ?? I plan on shagging some birds myself next 7 days in Idaho. Weimerainer likes the field but hates the water. Good dog for pheasant, though.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:13 | 819811 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture


"Unfunded Liabilities..."

This entire concept is nonsense. What is the time frame involved? $1.2 million per taxpayer per year? Decade? Per lifetime? Per n lifetimes?

Did any of you begin your life by saving up the entire sum total of all of your expenses or liabilities BEFORE doing anything?

Did any of you begin your business by saving up the entire sum total of all of your projected expenses for the next 50 years BEFORE you began your business?

No, of course not.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:13 | 819846 hambone
hambone's picture

Did any of you begin your new business with others debts that you were responsible for?  Given $24.5T in debt by 2015, each taxpayer (assuming 100million and 5% interest rate...average for last 50yrs) is responsible for $12,500/annually just to finance the interest on the debt (of course only 50million paid federal taxes this year...so you could double that interest tax to $25000 per actual Federal tax payer).

Oh, and if you don't come up with big tax increases (on top of the above) to fund the unfundeds now coming due, many of your potential customers won't be customers because they won't have the government pass throughs without SS, med/med, etc.

Oh, and btw all that money and debt that was spent to goose GDP for the last 20yrs is gone and done now so be happy w/ a flat GDP.  Enjoy the clean up.

Put another way, if we began funding the 2015 unfunded liabilities (based on a 30yr / 0% int fixed loan) would cost all 100m tax payers $3,278/mo for the next 30yrs (that is the delta with what is promised and what is owed).  Yes, this is pretty much in addition to current taxes.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:40 | 819856 blindman
blindman's picture

which part of "fuck the big banks" do we not understand?

end the fed !!

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 20:59 | 819884 greenewave
greenewave's picture

The United States is a PROPOGANDA MACHINE. Find out how they plan to CENSOR the INTERNET and THREATEN AMERICAN FREEDOM.

Please watch the video “FEAR = CONTROL *Internet Censorship and Global War Looms” at (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLwQstnk6tw).

-Anonymous

Wow, this is truly scary and absolutely real consequence of the financial collapse of 2008. What can we do to stop it??

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:09 | 819903 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

One thing is for sure...  The next 10 years will not be boring.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:19 | 819917 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Budget Crises and CAFR

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaqnOFwwzk0

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:23 | 819925 Birddog
Birddog's picture

Rainman, its a golden retriever loved pheasants hunts...good luck next week bird hunting in Idaho, should be dry or at least frozen

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:29 | 819934 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Got this from a friend of mine. What do you guys make of it?

http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/LPSILC36/PR

 

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 00:32 | 820210 Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

I watched it. What a waste of time. They said they don't have anything to gain by telling us this. PULEESE. Then they won't actually tell us what we should do. You have to order their study. One of them is free, but who cares? Also, they placed great weight on the price of gas and then said that our gas is so much cheaper than Europe because the dollar is the reserve currency while never mentioning that most of the difference is because of the much higher gas taxes in Europe. If they can't even analyze gas prices ...

Tue, 12/21/2010 - 00:56 | 820265 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Yeah, after watching to the sales-pitch end, I agree with you. Puds.

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:42 | 819948 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

We'll have collapsed well before 2015, like 3 or 4 years before......

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:52 | 819965 walküre
walküre's picture

J U B I L E E

is coming

Rejoyce! Rejoyce!

Entitlements and liabilities will be CRUSHED by the reality of empty pockets.

Pensions? LOL. So you worked all your life and paid pennies into a broken system. So what. So you were lied to and you believed eagerly you could work 40 years and live another 35 years off the retirement fund. Well, you're stupid!

Can't wait for this fucking stupid boomer generation to get a reality check.

 

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 21:59 | 819974 Misean
Misean's picture

"Can't wait for this fucking stupid boomer generation to get a reality check."

Why? It's gonna bounce...

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:28 | 820011 walküre
walküre's picture

Bounce?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:00 | 819976 greenewave
greenewave's picture

Don't know 'bout you but I'm tired of getting SCREWED by the BIG RED WHITE and BLUE.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I93dzfs8WIc

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:28 | 820010 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

When do you guys see some other currency(ies) besides the USD becoming the worlds reserve currency(ies)?

Mon, 12/20/2010 - 22:50 | 820034 CEOoftheSOFA
CEOoftheSOFA's picture

The money situation is actually the good news because we can correct the situation.  Between 1920 and 1922, total Federal expenditures were reduced 47% by President Harding.  President Coolidge reduced spending even further.  And we weren't wasting nearly as much then as we are now, so it should be easier to reduce spending now.  The reductions in spending ended the Depression of 1920 and put the "Roaring" in the Roaring '20's. 

The bad news is that we don't have the political will to address the situation, even in a minor way, while being faced with insolvency.

CEO of the Sofa

Writing from The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

 

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season0123's picture

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