This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
24th Consecutive Outflow From Domestic Stock Mutual Funds Is In The Books
At this point what is there to say that has not been said already 23 times in a row? ICI reports the latest fund flow data: flows into everything are up... except domestic stocks. The only silver lining: the outflow is declining, and we may just see an inflow next week. Although at $81billion in redemptions YTD, even an uptick eventually would be too little to late. The only marginal buyers continue to be the primary dealers (using POMO cash), desperate pension funds (getting led to the slaughter), and algos which churn stocks a few million times per day, end on a loss, but then collect liquidity rebates from the exchanges and are happy. Aside from these three, there is nobody else.
Weekly flows:
Cumulative flows:
»
- 9632 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
What more to say....
How about:
"Fuck it."
i think investors are just saying 'screw it' with the mutual funds
say good-bye to the mutual fund industry
Speaking of Outflow....
Some fixing income guys being show the door at Citadel.
Does POMO only operate on POMO days? If so, then what stops this thing on days - correct that, day, like yesterday from really, really tanking? I sure as hell ain't any of you, so who?
I think a combination of people covering their short positions at the end of the day (who wants to be short over night!) and the market will generally hold to a certain level relative to it's daily pivot levels. For example, yesterday, the ES sold off all the way down to it's S2 level and was heavily defended at that level. If eventually bounced up out of that zone after dipping a bit lower than S2 at the end of the day. The flash crash day was one of those extremely rare blow out days where everything is in chaos. Wouldn't be surprised if we have another one soon... This market is standing on nothing but POMO...
This chart looks to be the inverse of the net short presented in the COT. It wouldn't suprise me if that was the case. Everyone is freaking short, and no, they do hold those positions over night.
Been short since April...
short interest has declined in kind with this chart.
Yep, the squeeze is on via Banana Boys. Took 3/4's off near the lows letting the last 1/3 wonder...
"I sure as hell ain't any of you, so who?"
There is nothing "bullish" about one percent swings in both directions...it's bearish...it has always been thus.
so what specifically are you shorting then?
The dollar.
Declining outflow = tank empty
How soon before the POMO starts "cavitating?"
What do you mean by tank empty? In actuality, it's still close to being filled.
Have you seen the numbers from ICI. http://www.ici.org/research/stats/trends/trends_08_10
However, the outflow trend has been negative for 3 years and will be so until the boomers are done.
Here's what is happening. People are selling stocks, buying mostly bonds, and some etfs. Industry / banks are selling bonds and buying some stocks, add in pomo, and you have stock increases.
And to followup, I have been watching the money market funds continually decrease among retail. This money is going into bonds. This is adding to the mix. Once again, the seller's of bonds are most likely purchasing some stocks.
In general, this is one big game of musical chairs and the Fed is controlling the music.
Average Joe kickin' ass and selling into strength. Sweet!
Average Joe cashing out to support average Jane's lifestyle. Not so sweet!
Cheaper stock for the rest of us! Horray!
Retail will come back when Dow = 25,000 or something like that. And once again, be led to slaughter.
Not everyone can get rich from the stock market.
Cheaper stock for the rest of us!
Hello, anyone home? Stock prices are getting higher what do you mean cheaper?
Imagine where they'd be without these outflows. Can you say Dow 15,000 or more?
Yea, Im confused too. Im still trying to figure out what happened to that pretentious concept known as the Hindenburg Omen.
It was eaten by the POMO.
If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.
without these outflows,
Still around 7,000 or less.
Why? Stocks are a scam to fleece people of their money.
However, now they have become a tool to control them as well.
That's exactly what the banksters were banking on when they started buying, but, alas it didn't happen that way for them did it. Now imagine where we'll all be when they have to unload their spec positions.
Nonsense. F'n BS pitz. Wishful thinking. Average Joe sold to you, and he is spending his money on food and rent.
Bagholder. LOL! And they call you the "smart money." LOLOLOLOL!
He's doing what the funds are doing - buying strength. They are the "smart money"....... and not doing so great this year. ;)
Would POMO exist without those outflows?
Nice pick up in the FT Alphaville on the short interest in the ETF complex...
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/20/376981/those-etf-shorts/
Just imagine what would happen if AAPL and it's iPad wasn't there to help the stock market cope with it's heavy outflows....
Thank you, thank you, you're too kind. I'm here every night this week. Try the linguine.
Bashing HFT's aside, how much do they get per share for providing "liquidity"? (I assume "liquidity provider" is a special case recognized by regulators, i.e. not a product of the free market?)
Assuming it is a fraction of a penny per share, that wouldn't make up for much of a trading loss.
Shit, it must be my ex-wife buying. That bitch will buy anything, on credit.
Remember - HFTs don't frontrun institutional orders:
http://www.tradersmagazine.com/news/high-frequency-trading-front-run-itg...
Average six pack retail traders ran out of both money and patience. They have been robbed and nothing is left to take out of the their accounts.
that's why "if the government goes after the taxpayer it's bullish." there IS something left. consider a "gift" if you like. for what purpoese Wall Street cannot fathom...but they will take it.
Actually, they are going after future, yet to be born, taxpayers. Must be nice to tap into reserves that don't exist yet.
Come on , i am tired of this bullshit, no desperate pension fund is getting led to the slaughter, only idiot bears like me reading this BS every single day eaiting for the markets to crash. The flash crash was a 1 in 25 years event, it s gone, only idiot bears have wet dreams waiting gor another one.
i shud have better listened to doug kass and cramer. Fuck you doomers and stupid bears. fuck you ZH. You BS is up.
Looks like Beaker has some time on his hands while moving his stuff from CNBC to Fox . . .
I actually agree with you on one thing: the markets will not go down as long as the FED exists. So waiting for a stock market crash is indeed stupid. The only meaningful event to come will be the hyperinflation. The FED will never give up until this. I'm tired of waiting too, but nobody can give a precise timeline.
Well, you may be losing money but at least you can console yourself with the knowledge that everything is shitty.
Sir, please step away from your medication.
Alternatively, if you are not currently on medication, please acquire some.
Zexe,
your likely right, the Bernake Crew will make damn sure it doesn't happen again, even if it KILLS us all.
It is, with DEBT.
Pension Funds are desperate because they are so far Underwater, and Underfunded, their shitting bricks.
Plus why do you read it?.Tyler is showing you there is NO Money to speak of going in, and a hell of a lot thats come out.
WHY do you think that is?.The Outflow folks are just sick of dragging money bags around right?.
No, their not stupid, and their not going to get a 40-50% SET back for the 3rd time in 40yrs. When the main shareholders are getting out at a better than 2-1 basis...you should guess they know something J6P doesn't.
Every time these poor folks get nailed for a 20-30% loss, it takes a 100% return, just to get back to even.
yet ZIRP is bankrupting the pension system, too. "Provide confidence by showing it with non-free money and allow for failure." No failure=trader temptation. Add a "huge wad" of "no credibility when it comes to the currency" and as Yoda said "not afraid? You will be.....You will be."
Well flash crashes are not the content of my wet dreams, but god bless.
Outside of convergence trades, last i checked the only investing advice ZH has given was to pull your money out of the equity markets and buy PM's. How one lost money on that trade is beyond me.
Finally, a macro theme of ZH is personal responsibility. It is not ZH's job to manage your money. If you lose money, on your investments, the person you should be saying fuck you to, is staring back at you in the mirror.
not true. been consistently bullish on bonds here as well. thank God they've been right, however...POMO up the arse in that space is CHEATING. Monetizing the debt IS the crime. Period. Spending hasn't stopped, has it? Just the opposite, right? And the spending shows up...where precisely?
i feel your pain
i feel your pain
Zexe must mean "gambler" or "dumbass investor" in Swahili - regardless - don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out of ZH. F__k you bulltard. Don't hate on us because the stock market is a great ponzi scheme.
This is just my opinion, I don't pretend to be able to predict the future, but I think Zexe may be confusing a bear market rally with a secular bull market.
That terminology is so 20th century...
I thought that when my neighbors don't own something (like gold, now like stocks) that means it's time to buy. Right?
And when inflows will occur, I am so all in shorting the Earth.)
Pulled money in 401k out of stock funds put it in money market fund. Missed recent upside move. Wife extremely pissed off. I keep telling her shit about to hit the fan. Not happening. What to do. Looking pretty foolish at this point.
Patience, Grasshopper. That's likely to be a very good sale.
(unless, of course, the MMF turns out to be dog crap. Which it could do. But then it really wouldn't matter, would it ?)
You think you've got it rough...what about the poor bastards who've been short since 666? Maybe time to jettison the happy wife in favor of a gloomier model who understands that doomsday is right around the corner.
You missed it. Not much upside here and not much downside now. Just muddling along. Keep it where it is unless you want to swing trade.
"and not much downside now" <---- since when were you the market maker? There always has been plenty of downside for many years now. The only thing holding up the market is the Fed's incompetence. No government in existence has EVER been able to artificially prop up an economy via deficit spending for very long.
What about deficit spending and mark2myth? Got any data on that?
The FED believes in the "Zimbabwe Omen" which shows the more money you print and dump in to the stock market via banksters, the market will go up measured in worthless fiat FRNs. Measured in real money, gold, the market continues to decline.
I think the FED is encouraged by the success the POMO has had in keeping rates low and pumping up the equity market (dollar be damned). They can't prop up real estate prices, and real estate has become the sand in the Vaseline. Maybe Benron thinks if I can create the "wealth effect" psychology in the few remaining retail investors, they may go spend some of their perceived wealth at the malls this Christmas? Otherwise what's the point of debasing the currency to prop up an illusion of wealth in the stock market? Do they really think that pumping up a few stocks will result in a major rebound in consumer spending, new jobs and home sales? Yeah, he probably does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdED3rVgIu4
Please tell us the next time you go all in, so we can all move out. (Sarc.)
Well, your best bet is something called modern portfolio (look it up in the bookstore) where you diversify into various risk assets (including gold, commodities, foreign fixed income, emerging markets, etc) based on your risk score.
You could also look up FEE ONLY independent (w/t a link to a large fin institution !!!) CFP in your area, but those are pricey.
And no matter what you do - DO NOT RUSH.
dav,
Does she understand why the Market is UP?.
Or is she a typical female, and is just pissed she's not making the upside?.
When the Mkt drops, see how she feels then, or if we go into street riots, and or worse.
The Unin dudes are fixing to get screwed royally, and the Dems hare having a fit trying to figure out how their going to LAME duck a 160 Billion, after Nov 2,to keep them suppported.
I seriously doubt the NEW Congress is going to fund it.
Union boys are much worse than the French, or Greeks..........
If it's any consolation, I did the same thing, and damned happy......because WE are going to have to be damn fast, to keep them from seizing our 401k's, and IRA's, because they are already planning that too.
You want control of YOUR savings, or do you want them to steal that also?.
The way I heard it, is at your death, the balances are hit a flat 40%, that's money you could shove to your kids.
Not counting the taxes they will take also.
Yes, well if you have physical PM instead, the kids can just go dig it up, and the tax collector is non the wiser.
Don't worry I'm about to make you feel less stupid. I liquidated all I had at Dow 12000 2 years ago and stepped out into the market long on only 3 ocassions
1. Buying AMZN at 96
2. Buying BAC summer 09 at 11 before the meltup
3. I bought 1000 shares of REE 2 years ago when it was a penny stock traded on the TSX because I knew rare earths would be a huge industry.
I got in at 1.30 and held this only with conviction since Lehman only to sell back in April finally for 100% gain...meanwhile it has since moved onto the AMEX and is 12.00+ today and has done nothing but go vertical since i sold.
BAC and AMZN were trades only which worked out well. So sleep better pal because I have only gotten raped in my FAZ that I will be holding 1 year as of November. A market timer I am not but whoever said the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent was not kidding. I'm going down with this ship however because I have enough faith in myself.
...a modest proposal...get a mistress and make sure your wife finds out...that should get her out of your hair as far as the market is concerned...if that doesn't work, get a boyfriend anf tell the wife you ar by....
ask her to take a look at www.dailyjobcuts.com
When market turns, put money back into 401K via DOG (invese dow fund).
Here is a typical buy signal: full stochastics at limit, then start to turn up. 5 day moving average starts to level out, price continues up thru 10 day moving average to close above. Open your position if price continues up the next day. Sell when price goes below 10 day moving average, or just use a trailing stop sell order.
And tell wifey you're human and she didn't marry you for money. :)
"put it in money market fund"
That was the error here, I think most of us would have advised you to buy physical gold/silver. Still plenty of upside in both. I'd suggest to your wife that she remember that she still has food on the table, a roof over her head, and a husband that still gives a shit about her in spite of her bullshit attitude.
So sick of women thinking they're hot shit.
We can thank the following for their excellent hard work in yet another POMO ramp today. Please give them a round of applause. This is beginning to look a lot like the end of April...
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
Jefferies & Company, Inc.
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets Corporation
RBS Securities Inc.
UBS Securities LLC.
Looks like TPTB to me.
Interesting. Does anyone know what the ECRI was last week. It used to get reported here every week until it stopped going down. Now I never see it. If anyone cares to post it, that would be great. I wonder if the same will happen to this weekly series?
wow... its hard to find that data...
-7.1%
http://www.businesscycle.com/resources/
-6.9 is the real answer. I guess you didn't get the point I was trying to make.
Remind us again just what the -10 ECRI print was supposed to indicate? It disappeared once the imminent launch of QE2 confirmed that the forecast depression/double-dip/re-recession had in fact occurred.
To your point, how has the Baltic Dry index performed lately?
Remind us again just what the -10 ECRI print was supposed to indicate?
Rhetorical but I'll reply regardless. According to ZH and Rosie, it ment we were heading into another recession. Then it went up and was not mentioned again here or by Rosie since said out come has not occurred.
To your point, how has the Baltic Dry index performed lately?
Well off it's July lows and pretty flat - about where it was last year at this time. Slow, sluggish, benign. No crash there, no super growth either.
How can you head into another recession when we haven't left the first one to begin with?
So because according to you "said out come has not occurred" QE2 is merely a prophylactic printing of several trillion?
Mutual fund outflows are being routed by the Street into managed accounts. They're buying ETFs or fractional shares of real stock (i.e. 1.42 shares of NFLX) via allocation accounts.
Nothing new here.
Maybe yours are. My equity outflows are sitting in my FDIC insured checking account at Waccamaw bank earning 0.75%, which interestingly enough is about 5 times what my money market account is paying.
If you integrate your personal experience and add the casino-style all-in on AAPL and GOOG, what # of people would it take to equal the outflows and what ratio?
The greater fools game now has far less fools
Correct! And this is going to be a great show to watch.
Already, Act I: Investment Bankers Go Cannibal
Next: Act II: Exchanges Point Finger Fest
After: Act II: Obama hoses all of them to gain political traction
Yep...the "Greater Fool" thing is on, and Average Joe gets to watch it unfold. Too much info out there for him to get duped again.
Sweet! Bring it!
This ICI data is clearly wrong and not giving the complete picture, Maria said "inveshters we big buyers today..." so its clear there are inflows and ZH is posting bearish propaganda again....
This move has the same feel of the move from February to May with relentless buying until the 61.8% retracement of the 2007 top to the 2009 bottom was hit. Now we are making the same move from a similar starting point on much lighter volume with price gaps everywhere on the chart. A few months removed everyone is now just as bullish with RSI hitting 70 on major indices. Just as everyone thought early March 2009 was the end of the world now most everyone in October 2010 thinks the crisis never even happened.
I'm confused on your point, Lumbergh. What crisis?
Are you talking about how title has been lost on half the real estate of America [so that JP Morgan's legacy can remian intact]?
Are you talking about some 3 trillion in debt [probably 4 trillion by tomorrow]?
Are you talking about the flash crash...and how Chinese computer geeks can price anything anywhere in a micro second...you know, as long as it is priced to the fourth decimal?
Are you talking about "Systemic Freakin' Banking Fraud Scum" and the "Fed" that wants to bail it out again?
Really, Lumbergh, are you just trying to scare folk with your vague suggestions, rumors and general anti American rhetoric?
I am talking about the TPS reports crisis...what other crisis would concern me...that line of questioning mister just earned you a weekend of work here at Initech.
Damn! And I was going to get drunk this weekend.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
Thomas Jefferson
I know, this is often posted here at ZH, but it constantly speaks the truth.
As evidence, people as a whole are pulling money out of the US stock market, but up it goes. Why, because the people don't control it. Who does, the banks and corporations. What do they want? Your money!
One thing that I am just wonder about these statistics..... Are people leaving Mutual Funds to enter into ETFS as they are basically the same thing except ETFs provide more flexiblity? This may explain some of the outflow, however I do believe people are leaving for other reasons as well.
i was thinking the same thing. when they get laid-off, they take their 401k and convert to an IRA and buy gld and slv and etf's
mutual funds with their buy/sell on market close only are kind of prehistoric
they allowed the conversion into roths without penalty
alot of companies stopped matching 401k contributions
there's alot of reasons to think retail investors don't want to use equity mutual funds anymore
I think it must be obvious to even the most casual observer of "stocks" that the market has no bearing on what is happening on the ground in the U.S. of A. They also remember at least one massive crash happening sometime in the recent past, and another one awhile back before that. Some remember 3 of them. Wall street is a con and is perceived as such in the hazy collective semi-consciousness of those who own 20% of the total wealth of the country, but represent 80% of its population.
So, is there such a thing as a Hindenburg Omen election? Outflows are not going to stop until folks believe somebody is behaving like real grownups and watching the roost.
Again, "you're a fool if you're shorting this" and the numbers bear this out. Short interest amazingly is actually declining. "It's hard to short a government induced vacuum" although I am unclear if this is the government policy. More to the point "we're talkin' a Bernanke equity round up." Again, "I am unclear if this was the government's intent." But reality bears out the fact that "commodities are risky, foreign markets are risky, treasuries are outrageously over priced and cash is basically making a negative return." Default to equities. All equities? Well...I like where you're going with that if that's where you're going there Hot Stuff! Now, while we're on the subject of inflation....how about a little NEW NEW THING phuckers!!!
Commodities are risky to traders, not to investors.
The only marginal buyers continue to be the primary dealers (using POMO cash), desperate pension funds (getting led to the slaughter), and algos which churn stocks a few million times per day, end on a loss, but then collect liquidity rebates from the exchanges and are happy. Aside from these three, there is nobody else.
Please pardon my ignorance, but do the 401k contributions of millions of Americans not make them buyers as well?
No, their purchases are funnelled via their 401Ks to the collectives, aka the primary dealers.
oh by the way with courtesy of GS .. the nice little short on eurchf already blew up (over 1,34) one and 0.5 day after selling it to their customers .... these guys don't want to be hanging around too long anymore waiting for your money ... i mean with trading revenues ehh bonuses going down these days ... GoGoGoGo Gadget
This system isn't broken - this is the system.
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic.
cheap vps
windows vps
cheap hosting
One thing that I am just wonder about these statistics..... Are people leaving Mutual Funds to enter into ETFS as they are basically the same thing except ETFs provide more flexiblity? This may explain some of the outflow, however I do believe people are leaving for other reasons as well.
fossil watches|tiffany jewelry