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Since things are turning around, I'm going to go get me a shiny new job!
would you like to show me a link so I can follow up to see how much dollars (in term of buying or selling treasury)coming in and coming out of the us. I really want to see this bogus economy (borrowing and spending) collapse so we can rebuild a productive economy, and people can wake up and how bogus our economy is. thanks
Those that fall off the "long end" of the extended benefits curve just don't get counted. Well, maybe in U6 if that.
They simply fall off on to the compost heap of unemployment...and can't even fertilize green shoots.
@Pete said: "Those that fall off the "long end" of the extended benefits curve just don't get
I think that's right. The MSM article about the new numbers says that the U/E rolls totalled 6.2 Million.
But as a side note, it said that "if" you counted the people whose benefits were exhausted, the number went up to 9.1 Million.
I've said this before - continuing claims is a USELESS number. Continuing claims only measures people on the states' 26 week unemployment rolls.
Mish had a great post about this a few days ago.
U6 is the only useful number to watch from here on out.
Only Saddam Hussein would use a term like "bogus." And he wound up in the hole. Talk about bankrupt!
On the surface, this shows some signs of a joblessness slow-down. However, historically, the 2nd and 3rd quarters have always shown fewer lay-offs. This seasonal characteristic needs to be taken into context. Come winter, when city and county governments are faced with property tax shortfalls, unemployment is likely to surge again.
I graduated in May 2008 with a finance degree and accepted a job right away. I have friends that graduated with me that held out for jobs offering more money, it's been over a year and they still can't find a job. Now they'll accept ANYTHING but they can't even get a job flipping burgers.
nothing relevant is coming out of your mouth son. you ain't smarter, they ain't dumb either.
He's saying the job market got worse and he's lucky to get the job. Nothing to do with smarter or dumb.
fin major - keep posting...thanks for the
Why do we even pay attention to BLS's lies...er..."data" anymore?
with you on this one GG.....one of my fly on the wall fantasies would be to sit in on the final meeting where the numbers are decided on and listen to the conference call with larry summers or rahm the dick on the other end.
You mean the Bureau of Lies and Sadistics, Gordon? ;)
Time to add another zero to those trading accounts. Robots running out of steam, must close at highs of day.
Lopping 20% of the populace from participation in the economy is bullish. Assuming the government abandons them like they should have after 1932.
I thought Baghdad Bob was relocated to the BLS by the previous administartion and the current one thought he was doing such a fine job they gave him extra hours at Commerce doing the same thing.
I agree. The deeper and longer the contraction the more irrelavant the initial claims number becomes and the more important the unemployment rate and NFP numbers become. Assuming not everyone is going to lose their job (as there is a minimun employment a company needs to keep the lights on). If recovery and revenue doesn't come back quick there could certainly be additional layoffs but the key to growth will be putting people back to work. I wouldn't expect the fewer people that are working to be spending more to make up what the unemployed are not spending.
I expect EUC exhaustion statistics would require collating state labor dept data [problematic to say the least].
Mish had some statistics [and a link to login-protected research with more/higher-quality data] this past weekend -- see http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/500000-will-exhaust-u...
It's even worse for freelancers like myself (S-corp). I'm out of work, not eligible to collect unemployment, and not counted in any of the UE figures. Freelancers have become a big part of the workforce over the past couple of decades, so there are a lot people slipping through the cracks (Business Week has freelancers at 10% of the workforce).
I just got my walking papers yesterday from the worlds largest media company. Funny how all those corporate emails telling you everything is fine is just cover, sort of like when the head coach gets the dreaded vote of confidence. Time to start my own business.
sorry to hear this....as one who has been laid off for 17 months, i know the feeling.
i still remember the same emails and meetings after a layoff... "this should be the last layoff, we don't anticipate any further reductions." i sometimes do miss the Dilbert world....
good luck to you!
i don't have as much tenure as you but you have
provided yet more evidence that america is
culturally deceitful....the orwell-speak in
corporate america is disgusting but is simply a
symptom of cultural mendacity....lies in the bls
numbers, lies in the market manipulation field,
lies in barry soetoro's citizenship....the republic
from head to toe is mired in deceit...
i don't care if a company lays me off but i do care
when i am lied to....and i won't accept excuses
that they were sincerely mistaken....
I was in agreement until you reached the 'birther' issue; healthy cynicism and skepticism are great, but really?
Who needs jobs when you have robots, SP to 1200!
David Rosenberg on BNN tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m.
this is insane. these guys need to be stopped.
The Treasury Department inserted a potentially explosive provision in legislative language it sent to Capitol Hill on Thursday as it detailed its plan to reshuffle the authority of federal bank regulators.
Because Treasury’s plan would consolidate the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency into a new regulator known as the National Bank Supervisor, Treasury had to come up with another entity to sit on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s five-member board (the head of the OTS and the OCC currently occupy two of the FDIC’s five board seats).
Who did Treasury officials pick for the fifth seat? The Federal Reserve.
Never let a good crisis go to waste. I think people are starting to catch on where that phrase came from, and it wasn't just from Chicago politics.
I spent a couple of hours on hold with the New Mexico Dept of "Workforce Solutions" last week... I've been unemployed for ~14 months, but didn't qualify for benefits because I haven't had any income this year.
(Of course, someone did tell me that the state has run out of money for unemployment compensation.)
Enjoyed this recent Kunstler quote
"We'll soon find out whether an organism the size of the United States can run an economy based on one family selling the contents of its garage to the family next door."
Oh the unemployed who now no longer qualify for unemployment benefit or anything else are insignificant... they will die of hunger and disease (with the help of Swine Flu because their immune system is challenged) and then the population will shrink and people will be able to find work again
solve the problem by killing off a lot of the population
all of these recent monthly statistics are interesting but the real news is the long term horizon.....according to byron king at the daily reckoning:
"Then the Fed made a shocking prediction. It forecasted that the U.S. economy would add NO NET NEW JOBS over the next five years! Whoa!
No net new jobs? That ought to scare you. The Census Bureau predicts that the U.S population will grow over five years. But the numbers of new jobs will remain static. That is, for every job gain there will be a loss."
the united states is now fully europeanized - we will have chronic high unemployment just as health care socialism and cap and trade fascism come to the fore.....it is to keep the little people in their places....
As long the BLS is posting the same crap over a period of time, you might be able to pull something from it.. we have a month of two before the moving average bottoms on the first hump if you match it to 01-02. Does unemployment follow a double hump pattern on the 6 month moving average? If it does, based on the strength of the first hump, we are in for another round that is going to last a long time.
My thinking is this is how it looks once the first round of money throwing at the problem wears out....
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