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256,357 Initial Unemployment Claimants In June, 2,519 Mass Layoff Events

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The BLS has released the most recent mass layoff event and initial jobless claim data. The initial claimant data has dropped by about 34k month over month, and is 70.7% higher on a trailing twelve month basis. Comparable data for the initial jobless claims apps. It would be useful to compare these data vis-a-vis how many people are getting shut out from not only jobless claims but also emergency claims as the recession approaches its two year anniversary and millions have been unemployed for over a year.

 

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Thu, 07/23/2009 - 14:46 | 13080 Joe Sichs Pach
Joe Sichs Pach's picture

Since things are turning around, I'm going to go get me a shiny new job!

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 14:56 | 13087 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Dear T.D,

would you like to show me a link so I can follow up to see how much dollars (in term of buying or selling treasury)coming in and coming out of the us. I really want to see this bogus economy (borrowing and spending) collapse so we can rebuild a productive economy, and people can wake up and how bogus our economy is. thanks

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 14:59 | 13089 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Those that fall off the "long end" of the extended benefits curve just don't get counted.  Well, maybe in U6 if that.

 

They simply fall off on to the compost heap of unemployment...and can't even fertilize green shoots.

 

Pete

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:05 | 13098 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

@Pete said: "Those that fall off the "long end" of the extended benefits curve just don't get
counted."
I think that's right. The MSM article about the new numbers says that the U/E rolls totalled 6.2 Million.
But as a side note, it said that "if" you counted the people whose benefits were exhausted, the number went up to 9.1 Million.
Yikes!

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 19:48 | 13498 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I've said this before - continuing claims is a USELESS number.  Continuing claims only measures people on the states' 26 week unemployment rolls.

Mish had a great post about this a few days ago.

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/500000-will-exhaust-u...

 

U6 is the only useful number to watch from here on out.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 14:59 | 13090 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Only Saddam Hussein would use a term like "bogus." And he wound up in the hole. Talk about bankrupt!

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:01 | 13095 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

On the surface, this shows some signs of a joblessness slow-down. However, historically, the 2nd and 3rd quarters have always shown fewer lay-offs. This seasonal characteristic needs to be taken into context. Come winter, when city and county governments are faced with property tax shortfalls, unemployment is likely to surge again.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:02 | 13097 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I graduated in May 2008 with a finance degree and accepted a job right away. I have friends that graduated with me that held out for jobs offering more money, it's been over a year and they still can't find a job. Now they'll accept ANYTHING but they can't even get a job flipping burgers.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 17:03 | 13305 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

nothing relevant is coming out of your mouth son. you ain't smarter, they ain't dumb either.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 21:45 | 13578 Keyser Soze
Keyser Soze's picture

He's saying the job market got worse and he's lucky to get the job. Nothing to do with smarter or dumb.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 21:53 | 13582 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

thank you....
fin major - keep posting...thanks for the
anecdote..

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:08 | 13102 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Why do we even pay attention to BLS's lies...er..."data" anymore?

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 17:02 | 13304 deadhead
deadhead's picture

with you on this one GG.....one of my fly on the wall fantasies would be to sit in on the final meeting where the numbers are decided on and listen to the conference call with larry summers or rahm the dick on the other end.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 21:50 | 13580 Ich bin ein whatever
Ich bin ein whatever's picture

You mean the Bureau of Lies and Sadistics, Gordon? ;)

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:15 | 13112 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Time to add another zero to those trading accounts. Robots running out of steam, must close at highs of day.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:15 | 13114 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Lopping 20% of the populace from participation in the economy is bullish. Assuming the government abandons them like they should have after 1932.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:16 | 13116 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I thought Baghdad Bob was relocated to the BLS by the previous administartion and the current one thought he was doing such a fine job they gave him extra hours at Commerce doing the same thing.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:22 | 13119 Hondo
Hondo's picture

I agree.  The deeper and longer the contraction the more irrelavant the initial claims number becomes and the more important the unemployment rate and NFP numbers become.  Assuming not everyone is going to lose their job (as there is a minimun employment a company needs to keep the lights on).  If recovery and revenue doesn't come back quick there could certainly be additional layoffs but the key to growth will be putting people back to work.  I wouldn't expect the fewer people that are working to be spending more to make up what the unemployed are not spending.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:26 | 13130 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I expect EUC exhaustion statistics would require collating state labor dept data [problematic to say the least].

Mish had some statistics [and a link to login-protected research with more/higher-quality data] this past weekend -- see http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/500000-will-exhaust-u...

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:33 | 13145 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It's even worse for freelancers like myself (S-corp). I'm out of work, not eligible to collect unemployment, and not counted in any of the UE figures. Freelancers have become a big part of the workforce over the past couple of decades, so there are a lot people slipping through the cracks (Business Week has freelancers at 10% of the workforce).

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:44 | 13163 palper
palper's picture

I just got my walking papers yesterday from the worlds largest media company. Funny how all those corporate emails telling you everything is fine is just cover, sort of like when the head coach gets the dreaded vote of confidence. Time to start my own business.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 17:07 | 13307 deadhead
deadhead's picture

sorry to hear this....as one who has been laid off for 17 months, i know the feeling. 

 

i still remember the same emails and meetings after a layoff... "this should be the last layoff, we don't anticipate any further reductions."  i sometimes do miss the Dilbert world....

 

good luck to you!

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 21:59 | 13591 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i don't have as much tenure as you but you have
provided yet more evidence that america is
culturally deceitful....the orwell-speak in
corporate america is disgusting but is simply a
symptom of cultural mendacity....lies in the bls
numbers, lies in the market manipulation field,
lies in barry soetoro's citizenship....the republic
from head to toe is mired in deceit...

i don't care if a company lays me off but i do care
when i am lied to....and i won't accept excuses
that they were sincerely mistaken....

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 23:56 | 13678 PBS
PBS's picture

I was in agreement until you reached the 'birther' issue; healthy cynicism and skepticism are great, but really?

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 15:48 | 13173 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Who needs jobs when you have robots, SP to 1200!

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 16:21 | 13227 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

David Rosenberg on BNN tomorrow morning at 9:00 a.m.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 16:47 | 13276 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

this is insane.  these guys need to be stopped.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/07/23/treasury-proposes-putting-a-fe...

 

The Treasury Department inserted a potentially explosive provision in legislative language it sent to Capitol Hill on Thursday as it detailed its plan to reshuffle the authority of federal bank regulators.

Because Treasury’s plan would consolidate the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency into a new regulator known as the National Bank Supervisor, Treasury had to come up with another entity to sit on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s five-member board (the head of the OTS and the OCC currently occupy two of the FDIC’s five board seats).

Who did Treasury officials pick for the fifth seat? The Federal Reserve.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 21:12 | 13553 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Never let a good crisis go to waste.  I think people are starting to catch on where that phrase came from, and it wasn't just from Chicago politics.

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 17:15 | 13318 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I spent a couple of hours on hold with the New Mexico Dept of "Workforce Solutions" last week... I've been unemployed for ~14 months, but didn't qualify for benefits because I haven't had any income this year.

(Of course, someone did tell me that the state has run out of money for unemployment compensation.)

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 18:01 | 13385 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

Enjoyed this recent Kunstler quote

"We'll soon find out whether an organism the size of the United States can run an economy based on one family selling the contents of its garage to the family next door."

 

 

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 18:55 | 13462 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Oh the unemployed who now no longer qualify for unemployment benefit or anything else are insignificant... they will die of hunger and disease (with the help of Swine Flu because their immune system is challenged) and then the population will shrink and people will be able to find work again

solve the problem by killing off a lot of the population
QED

Thu, 07/23/2009 - 22:03 | 13594 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

all of these recent monthly statistics are interesting but the real news is the long term horizon.....according to byron king at the daily reckoning:

"Then the Fed made a shocking prediction. It forecasted that the U.S. economy would add NO NET NEW JOBS over the next five years! Whoa!

No net new jobs? That ought to scare you. The Census Bureau predicts that the U.S population will grow over five years. But the numbers of new jobs will remain static. That is, for every job gain there will be a loss."

the united states is now fully europeanized - we will have chronic high unemployment just as health care socialism and cap and trade fascism come to the fore.....it is to keep the little people in their places....

Fri, 07/24/2009 - 09:01 | 13885 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

As long the BLS is posting the same crap over a period of time, you might be able to pull something from it.. we have a month of two before the moving average bottoms on the first hump if you match it to 01-02. Does unemployment follow a double hump pattern on the 6 month moving average? If it does, based on the strength of the first hump, we are in for another round that is going to last a long time.

Fri, 07/24/2009 - 09:10 | 13890 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

My thinking is this is how it looks once the first round of money throwing at the problem wears out....

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