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29 Consecutive Equity Mutual Fund Outflows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Any minute now, any minute, we promise, investors will regain all their confidence in this non-charade of a market which reflects all the fundamental realities of the economy. Just not yet: last week saw the 29th consecutive outflow from domestic mutual fund flows, which incidentally surged to $2.8 billion from the $677 million outflow the week prior. Sarcasm aside, nobody except for CNBC's Fast Money is putting money in the market. Well, so are the Primary Dealers, and to an extend the Hedge Funds. Although now that the letter no longer have access to pervasive insider info courtesy of expert network, it may be up to just the Fed, HFT and the 18 primary dealers to take the Dow to 36,000. After all, there is a wealth effect to be created. Also, ICI reports last week muni funds saw a massive $4.8 billion outflow. Have no fear - this will also be spun as bullish. Incidentally, from its 2010 lows in July, the market has risen to fresh all time highs as investors have pulled just under $60 billion from mutual funds. Once Bernanke is done with his latest mandate which is nothing short of genocide, he is a shoe in to replace David Copperfield at the MGM.

And as a reminder, this is what insiders did last week:

In the first full week of the latest iteration of post-QE2 POMO,
which was supposed to see a dramatic ramp in stocks, the only thing we
have seen is the biggest insider buying to selling imbalance since the
data has been tracked. Overall, selling by S&P500 insiders was
8,279.5x times greater than buying (per Bloomberg).
There were 5 insider
buys for a total of $150,673, and 117 sales for a total of
$1,247,500,249. There is no point to even discuss what this data point
indicates.

 

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Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:22 | 753134 Beanie Baby Bubble
Beanie Baby Bubble's picture

To an extend, I recommend this posting.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:37 | 753173 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

to an even greater extend i recommend this posturing...

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:24 | 753310 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Who cares?!?! Bristol got jobbed!

 

(Who's Bristol? I'm just repeating what the other sheeple are saying....)

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 17:03 | 753427 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Palin McMILF says...
Stop jobbing her daughters bitchez...

Even though Palin is the one who started jobbing her daughters in the first place...

(I'm just repeating what our brilliant political class of leaders are saying...)

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:23 | 753135 Racer
Racer's picture

This is exactly what they want.. no-one in the market apart from HFT hot potatoeing.. it can then go up forever with not a single down day ever again.

Then ZimBen and the Inkjets can say look the market is forward looking so things MUST be superb everywhere!

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 18:50 | 753701 Rainman
Rainman's picture

......yippeee !! Gravity defied !!

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 19:26 | 753752 unununium
unununium's picture

Dumb question: if everyone is out, isn't their wealth unaffected by the market?

 

Must be the other-people's-wealth-effect.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 19:42 | 753784 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Don't be ridiculous. Ever heard of the prisoner's dilemma? When the market gets high enough, one of the big boys will cash out. This event will set off a panic as everyone will rush to the exits, and the truth will be revealed - that there is no real bid underpinning the market. To assume that no one will ever try to take their paper profits is silly.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 23:45 | 754085 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.

Fewer and fewer dollars chasing more and more gain.

HFT big boys milking who is left with two day cycles of -150 then +150, or the longer cycles to bleed out the more savvy.

The average person saw the game a while ago, and those that could or can, are leaving.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:29 | 753153 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Retail out. Insiders out. Institutions out. Nobody left but Ben and the HFT holding the bag. Good thing they are providing the liquidity for everybody to get out. It's gonna be something to see it fall once the robots shut down.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:04 | 753241 Arius
Arius's picture

if thats the case, where are they investing the money?

they are not just holding cash are they?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:06 | 753247 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Bonds. The next asset to get creamed.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:17 | 753287 Arius
Arius's picture

interesting...they all go like sheeps alltogether

feels good to have a front row seat in this theatre

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 18:23 | 753651 rocker
rocker's picture

Just maybe some did this over the past two years. Closed three of five accounts. Two of them being IRA's, paid the taxes and put half the cash in a safe deposit box. Bought, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium with the other half. Put that right next to the cash in the safe box. It is all your legal right to do. Two accounts left, one being cash. And that is what it is, sitting their in cash. NO positions. The IRA has a couple China stocks and GLD, SLV, PTM, JJN, and a large basket of mining stocks. AUY, DNN, SXRZF, EGI, EGO, KBX, MVG, NAK, PALAF, MGAFF, LYSCF, NILSY, NXG, PCX, PZG, TC, TGB, TIE, TTT, URPTF, UURAF, NHYDY and XSRAY.  That's what I did. Enjoy, my heaviest are DNN, TC, LYSCF, NILSY and XSRAY. To be added are DMMIF, CREQF and DROOY. Always keep 50% cash in account to trade. 

China stocks recently added are LLEN, CNAM, CHOP, CHGS CSGH and added today are FUQI, CBAK, SCOK. 

I see this as the only way I can protect myself from "the Bernanke".  Not to many people on Zh will show their hand. I have no problem.  I wish more would do so we could all learn from each other.

P.S. This is how I saved myself from the EWI scumbag Robert Prechter and his bad advice selling fear. Save Yourself !!!

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 19:27 | 753755 unununium
unununium's picture

You want PHYS and PSLV, not GLD and SLV.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 22:01 | 753955 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"You want PHYS and PSLV, not GLD and SLV."

Your keyboard must have cut out on you.  You missed a couple of letters, and then, nothing but static.

Here, let me fix it for you:

You want PHYSICAL . (period)

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 01:04 | 754168 rocker
rocker's picture

Thanks unununium, after checking it out. You are right.  To other response, I have physical, as said, that part is done.

The only new physicals I will add are Rhodium and some other REE's.  You can actually buy some of them. That's why I like NILSY. It's the Rhodium.  

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:30 | 753156 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

 TD,  Anyone see this?   China and Russia quit dollar.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-11/24/content_11599087.htm

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:39 | 753178 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

St. Petersburg, Russia - China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday.

 

Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.

Yeah.....right. The only thing worse than a dangerous animal is one that is seriously hurt and cornered. While the USA may be hurt, it's still very dangerous and China and Russia both know this will be seen as placing the USA in a corner.

Let the fireworks begin. At first it will play out as regional conficts. Can you say Korea? Then it escalates from there.

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:19 | 753248 Arius
Arius's picture

 

it seems to me they talked about it since last year.

also, you have the gulf countries talking about their own currency - thats the real deal because it effects the currency of choice for oil...

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:07 | 753252 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Well I unfortunately have had cnbs on all day (first time in a while) and they said nothing of this so it doest matter. Retail stocks is all that matters. Buy buy buy.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 04:00 | 754299 Go4er
Go4er's picture

This is big news, why wasn't this on the MSM front pages? 

 

sarcasm off...

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:40 | 753183 hambone
hambone's picture

It gets less impactful the more you say it but don't do it (they stated the same last year but did what?).

Jaw"boners" of the world unite.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:54 | 753213 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I actually think this is a attempt of the Russians to try to stabilize their rouble. By trading in dollars they had twice the losses.

Also, most of the export done between Russia and China is done in the border regions and are all resource related (wood from the siberian forests) and oil and gas, also from siberia.

The import from China to Russia is about equal size of the exports but the balance is desturbed by the dollar fluctuations because Russia pays in dollars for the imports and the chinese buy with yuans in the border regions.

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:57 | 753221 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Stable...Ruble....LOL

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:33 | 753164 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Revolution!  Defund the Mutual Fund industry!

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:34 | 753167 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Tyler, you are too much. MGM-Copperfield. lol This is all so surreal. Where am I. What planet am I on.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 00:25 | 754134 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Without a moral compass, who knows?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:38 | 753174 hambone
hambone's picture

It's just the American consumer pulling out a little spending cash for a very merry Christmas. 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:44 | 753175 BORT
BORT's picture

The working rate is now back to the year 2000 rate, at about 125 MM people.(Down from 133 MM)  There are also about 4 MM per year of boomers who reach 62 and probably go on social security each year.  IF they also begin to take 4% per year from their 401K each year to supplement their SS, and have on average $250,000 in their 401K, that would amount to 4MMX$250,000X4%=$40 B per year in additional withdrawals each year.  It all seems to make sense.  If this is true, teh withdrawal of money from the market by individuals is likely to continue.  Less going in to 401K, combined with the beginning of withdrawals.  As confirmation, old age pension income is up $43 Billion this year so far, even with no increase in benefits due to no cola

   Old-age, survivors,
             disability, and health insurance benefits 1,187.3 1,190.7 1,195.9 1,207.9 1,207.9 1,208.6 1,219.5 1,221.5 1,229.3 1,230.5
Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:51 | 753209 hambone
hambone's picture

Bort,

I like you're thinking but guess your "average" account of $250k is a little high - look for the median which is actually around $61k for retirees (folks with very large accounts and lower withdrawals skew the average).

 http://www.401kplanning.org/top-401k-planning-questions-and-answers/what-is-a-401k-plan/what-are-average-retirement-savings-for-different-age-groups/

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:01 | 753230 BORT
BORT's picture

Thanks.  I am trying to figure out how spending is continuing at current rates with no increase in overall employment.  Something has to give, and I am thinking it is savings, and some has to continue to come out of the market.  We used to talk about macro market trends when I was younger, and we all figured this would be a bad secular time when boomers started to live off savings.  This may not be a short term trend.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:09 | 753251 hambone
hambone's picture

I guess the considerations to be taken are the median accounts, some kind of formula for mandatory minimum distributions from age 70, and the impact and utilization of Roth IRA's that do not require distribution.

I think given the large number of folks who opted to take early SS...they are also likely drawing heavily on their 401k's / IRA's.  This combined w/ working folks feeling less able / confident to fund existing retirement accounts.

My guess is this isn't retail investors leaving (per se) but folks accross the spectrum withdrawing to live (in unemployment, in retirement, in distress).

This may well be a seat change.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:11 | 753261 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

They said people arent paying mortgages and buying everything retail.
All is well!

The only reason we had any recovery from the last recession was housing, those jobs around it and the ATM equity loans.

Maybe the fed will issue the American public a credit card. The fed card.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:48 | 753203 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

"blame the Irish."  In the meantime "Dow up 150" and "it's Europe that's collapsing and South Koreans getting killed."  i understand: "how can evil triumph...AGAIN!"--but i have to see (and i really don't like to say this, i really don't) how "truth, justice and the American way" works as an investment strategy. Insofar as the last two years are concerned and "relative to equities"--"not a damn thing" as far as i can tell.  As such I am also long "lying, cheating and stealing--while snakin' the neighbor's wife" right now.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:51 | 753211 mule65
mule65's picture

What's with the DXY/SPY disconnect today?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:14 | 753270 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

You mean the correlated trade usd down spy up?

Don't know claims are better? And the day before thanksgiving is up 75% of the time.

But you're right, dollar above 80 will take air of the market, euro is still tanking. You'd be a damn fool buying long holding over the long holiday. Last year Dubai world went down, who know which eurozone is next.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:56 | 753217 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I just saw on CNBC that there is a new consumer "frugal fatigue" where people are 'tired' of worrying about money and are ready to spend like drunken sailors.

You know...cause.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:02 | 753231 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I think they are right.  I just went out and bought a new pair of slippers for $10.00.  You can put that in the Bank.

I am trying to help the Economy.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:02 | 753236 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That's so eerie...I just bitched out my wife for spending $10 when she didn't 'need to'.

Sure is a small world.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:16 | 753282 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

My wife is a coupon and deal seeker. It's a game to her. Fine with me. We do the same stuff, same trips, etc. Pay less. Pay cash. What a concept.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:34 | 753348 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

....be CAREFUL, you might get the frugal fatigue...it's dangerous.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 22:05 | 753961 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"...be CAREFUL, you might get the frugal fatigue...it's dangerous"

One quick cure is a trip to the filling station!  Main tank at 1/2, aux tank at 1/2 and then...WHAM! - $128.00 worth of diesel will stimulate the frugal response again - no fatigue here!

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:12 | 753262 Arius
Arius's picture

"ready to spend like drunken sailors."

+1 Boo-yaa!  nothing can hold back the american consumer

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:36 | 753354 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I mean ONLY the sailors.  They are the only ones still shagging a weekly paycheck. 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:18 | 753288 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Just like all that mortgage money saved before they kick you to the streets. Buy those uggs and iPads.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 17:30 | 753518 Francis Dollarhyde
Francis Dollarhyde's picture

My wife thinks I'm spending like a drunken sailor.

But I prefer to think of it as transmuting bits of green paper into gold, silver, lead, brass, copper, and steel.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 15:59 | 753224 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I agree with genocide as the huge increase in Food prices will starve many around the World. 

But, I think that the Wall Street Traders are just as happy to have Retail OUT of the Market as it is easier to Control.  It is always the Retail Traders that act on fear.  Not the insiders.  Wall Street was always an inside game.  Now with the HFT the Insider Trading, Analysis expectations, etc.  They have what they want.  An insiders Club.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:05 | 753238 Racer
Racer's picture

They want to kill off the masses because they are consuming too many precious resources like oil.. and food.. and water.

This is the solution to the problems, instead of a world war(and got rid of a lot of people) that got everyone out of the last Great Depression , this Greater Depression is solved by a peaceful insidious War on the Poor

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:19 | 753292 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Yeah but unlike the masses they have no clue to actually use the stuff or produce anything other than numbers, debt and problems.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 01:04 | 754172 Clapham Junction
Clapham Junction's picture

Yo-great name.  He was a phony.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:21 | 753301 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Is that when all the starving poor just sort of sit down and go peacefully into the night?  Better go long on Kalashnikov variants and Lowrey's Seasoning. Long Pork... it's what's for dinner, and the real soylent green is made with fat cat, upper crust denizens.  They're nicely marbled and tender, almost like veal, from a life of polishing chairs with their asses.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:01 | 753225 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Paper liquidation, but changed for what, more paper?  Paper monie ain't real, stock, bond or FIAT currency.  Take control of your monie and wealth with silver.

McGuire Testified to Stop Financial Terrorism;  Help Fight:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ULn9fmatSw&feature=player_embedded

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:04 | 753244 fuu
fuu's picture

Surprised Harry isn't in here telling us how this is good for retail.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:13 | 753267 Arius
Arius's picture

 

its his day off

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:14 | 753275 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

maybe he is helping provide material for the pisani - liesman vaudeville show going on - discussing how strong the economy is and mandy adding that it is a "pretty" market

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:26 | 753320 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

Suggestion: We need a graph to show the inflows in P.M.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 22:08 | 753967 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

Wouldn't it seem to track the delivery from the bullion markets?  Or maybe more accurately it would be the inverse of their holdings?

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:38 | 753361 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

HFT's churn - but they don't hold.  401K investors that are moving/have moved to international funds where possible. 

Who actually holds this stuff, with P/E's of 200, when the market closes?  It's a bit of a mystery. 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:42 | 753368 Blah Blah Blah
Blah Blah Blah's picture

Suggestion:  We need a graph of Mandy.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:46 | 753378 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

Rare earths - Arms ....what does the US export again? Though 'Oil for food' applied to the US is going to be quite funny.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 16:55 | 753407 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

..part of virgil's starve the imf beast  plan # 3 LIQUIDATE 401K.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 17:03 | 753428 silver surfer
silver surfer's picture

The greatest fascist state in history is just paying itself...

I can not help thinking this is in fact USA inc. And the outflow from the stock market is from about 180000 incorporated towns, cities, municipalities etc. taking out some of their investments to pay their debt.

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 17:20 | 753485 pat53
pat53's picture

The market don't need no stinkin' retail investors to go higher. prepare for a melt-up Friday !

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 17:40 | 753529 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture
It’s time to play name that moron!   Who said in March 2009: falling central bank sales "might put a floor of some kind under gold, near $500 or so."                               a. Peter Cohan          b. Dennis Gartman   c. Me                   

 d. Scott Cendrowski

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 18:16 | 753564 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And observe, in the AH, the SPY is now showing you what the low of the day will be in Friday's US market session. 

The SPY downward candles are now two for two...sessions in a row.  Last night, SPY was shorted at $120.13, and lord have mercy...the short covering rally all day today took us to and past that mark.  The previous days losses, again predicted by the heavily manipulated SPY.

And tonight in the AH session, low and behold, downard manipulated candles...meaning Goldman is buying SPY $118.40, sweet discount, and will sell it through Fridays session for automated, sweet, HFT 100% rock solid profits. 

Thank you SEC.  Are we done gathing "comments" from the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street yet regarding trading, flash crash rules that should not be enforced?  Are were there yet?

More FBI agents, please.  Send them over to the SEC offices too, please.

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 18:19 | 753643 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I also liked this piece to an extend. God I love this crew. All those years, all that searching, and finally I have found my tin foil wearing family. I keep looking for lone gunmen and all I find is conspiracies. That's how nucking futs I am.

http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2010/11/bullshit-and-brute-force...

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 20:26 | 753839 greenewave
greenewave's picture

Find out how you can fight back against the Wall Street Crooks that just robbed you and watch the video “BIG WAVE AHEAD” with the people you care about (http://youtu.be/zfRIZYbKUCI).

Anonymous-

Thank you for this inspirational video!! We need more people like you helping to spread the truth!

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 21:54 | 753935 Minion
Minion's picture

These outflows are a contrary indicator. As the wise old saying goes: "the objective of the stock market is to rally when the least amount of traders are on board, and crash when everyone's holding"......

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 16:14 | 755009 erik
erik's picture

Take a look at the data, the largest outflows occurred from July 2008 to March 2009.  Inflows began in April 2009 and ran until July 2009.  The data only begins in Jan 2007.  Since the beginning of the data set, we have seen over $300B in net domestic stock outflows.

The pace of outflows per month is interesting.  From July 2008 to March 2009, it ran at about $16B per month.  Since the Flash Crash, we have seen nearly $14B per month outflows.  Oct/Nov estimates are showing much lower outflow rates, Oct ~$9B and Nov on pace for ~$5-6B.

The stock performance during July 2008 to March 2009 does not compare to the stock performance since May 2010, suggesting that either domestic stock outflows aren't large enough to move markets or that someone else is doing the buying since May 2010.

Jan 2007 to Sept 2007 (the end of the bull market) saw net monthly domestic stock outflows.  That same time period saw huge inflows into foreign stocks.

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 16:29 | 755024 erik
erik's picture

$637B in net inflows to taxable bonds since the data began in Jan 2007

Thu, 11/25/2010 - 22:24 | 755321 Minion
Minion's picture

Yes, very good observation: inflows here mean outflows somewhere else, unless the PRINT BUTTON has been active....... :D

Japan markets don't track the same wave pattern of US markets, and bonds are their own deal, so are commodities. 

Funny how whenever the USD or Euro are going down, the ZH carnage crowd forgets the problems of the other and roots for the destruction of the one on the present decline.

"Euro to Zero" in the spring didn't exactly materialize.......

"Dollar is finished" in the summer fizzled out like a good party.

Now it's the euro again, with events being used to justify the wave pattern in price movements that are easy to pick up on in advance, if you know what to look for.

 

Wed, 11/24/2010 - 22:01 | 753954 pemdas
pemdas's picture

OK, so what's the news with this article?

Lemmings are selling mutual funds to buy the same stocks via ETF's.  Insiders are selling big time because the big O will raise their tax rate January 1.  Both trends locked and loaded through the end of the year.

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