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Fake +290K Payrolls "Added", Real Number Is 36K After Census And Birth-Death, Unemployment Goes Back To 9.9%, Underemployment At 17.1%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

290K of which census was 66k and Birth Death was 188k. Hurray -the economy added a real 36k in jobs in April. Still, we are curious how the Chairman will not be forced to discuss tightening after this B/D adjustment inspired number (188K in April B/D, 81K in March). And in the meantime, headlines will read Unemployment back to 9.9%, and Underemployment back to 17.1%. Record jittery market bounces than calms down again.

Full BLS release:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate  edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Federal government employment also rose, reflecting continued hiring
of temporary workers for Census 2010.

Household Survey Data

In April, the number of unemployed persons was 15.3 million, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent. The rate had been 9.7 percent for the first 3 months of this year. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites (9.0 percent)  edged up in April, while the rates for adult men (10.1 percent), adult women (8.2 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), blacks (16.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.5 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up over the month, reaching 6.7 million. In April, 45.9 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-12.)

Among the unemployed, the number of reentrants to the labor force rose by 195,000 over the month. (See table A-11.)

In April, the civilian labor force participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage point to 65.2 percent, as the size of the labor force rose by 805,000. Since December, the participation rate has increased by 0.6 percentage point. The employment-population ratio rose to 58.8 percent over the month and has increased by 0.6 percentage point since December. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged at 9.2 million in April. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in April, compared with 2.1 million a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in April, up by 457,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

In April, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000. Sizable employment gains occurred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and in leisure and hospitality. Federal government employment increased due to the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010. Since December, nonfarm payroll employment has expanded by 573,000, with 483,000 jobs added in the private sector. The vast majority of job growth occurred during the last 2 months. (See table B-1.)

Manufacturing added 44,000 jobs in April. Since December, factory employment has risen by 101,000. Over the month, gains occurred in several durable goods industries, including fabricated metals (9,000) and machinery (7,000). Employment also
grew in nondurable goods manufacturing (14,000).

Mining added 7,000 jobs in April, with most of the increase in support activities for mining. Since last October, mining has added 39,000 jobs.

In April, construction employment edged up (14,000), following an increase of 26,000 in March. Over the month, nonresidential building and heavy construction added 9,000 jobs each.

Employment in professional and business services rose by 80,000 in April. Temporary help services continued to add jobs (26,000); employment in this industry has increased by 330,000 since September 2009. Employment also rose over the month in services to buildings and dwellings (23,000) and in computer systems design (7,000).

In April, health care employment grew by 20,000, including a gain of 6,000 in hospitals. Over the past year, health care employment has increased by 244,000.

Employment rose by 45,000 in leisure and hospitality over the month. Much of this increase occurred in accommodation and food services, which added 29,000 jobs. Food services employment has risen by 84,000 over the past 4 months, while accommodation has added 18,000 jobs over the past 3 months.

Federal government employment was up in April, reflecting the hiring of 66,000 temporary workers for the decennial census.

Over the month, employment changed little in wholesale trade, retail trade, information, and financial activities.

Employment in transportation and warehousing fell by 20,000 in April, reflecting a large decline in courier and messenger services.

In April, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased y 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees increased by 0.2 hour for the second straight month to 40.1 hours, and factory overtime was up by 0.1 hour over the month. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 33.4 hours in April. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private nonfarm sector increased by 1 cent to $22.47 in April. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.6 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $18.96. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised from -14,000 to +39,000, and the change for March was revised from 162,000 to 230,000.

 

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Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:43 | 336693 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Wow! 188,000 of the 290,000 is Birth/Death Model. Wow!

Too bad those are Phantom jobs and only available to Comic Book characters.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:44 | 336695 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

This sounds pretty racist to me, why subdived the unemployment by race?

 

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for whites (9.0 percent)  edged up in April, while the rates for adult men (10.1 percent), adult women (8.2 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), blacks (16.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.5 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:53 | 336715 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

How is data racist?

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:02 | 336725 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Why show that black people are more unemployed then white?

Why draw the line?

Are in America black people and white people not the same?

 

For me as a European, this is very racist.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:14 | 336744 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

If you think racism includes segregation of unemployed Americans by races, then feel free to remove all the 2010 census workers from the employed.  Hell, remove the census bureau as well.

Here's the form.  The resultant pages are essentially the same.

It's all a bridge to nowhere.

http://adeca.alabama.gov/C10/Census%20and%20Related%20Data/Image%20Library/CensusPage1.jpg

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:52 | 336769 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

They know they are unemployed in unequal numbers, this is not a surprise to them. Do you think they don't want to talk about it?

I think it is racist to ignore facts that one group of people is econonmically disadvantaged. By facing the facts we may change them.

But then I am not an enlightned European.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:08 | 336783 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

come on dude
we Europeans are racist as much as the rest of the world, if not more
The thing is that we just hide it really really well. Ever been to a football match or taken a stroll trough a minority suburb. Ever talked to an Arab in Paris.
Please, America is much things, but racism; we Europeans beat the shit out of America when it comes to that.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 12:53 | 336907 Oso
Oso's picture

how about this: when the EU allows Turkey to join, we can revisit the US BLS segregation of ethnicities issue.  sound good?  great.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 13:33 | 336971 fallingman
fallingman's picture

Correlates to IQ nicely ... 106 for Asians, 103 for whites, 89 for Hispanics, and 85 for blacks.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:44 | 336697 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Participation rate up. You think? We've got shadow inventory of REO properties and shadow unemployment. No mention of B/D numbers yet. And bulltards like Harry Wanger are in hiding. We probably bounce here, but how far? It's a depression and equities have been ignoring that fact for too long.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:45 | 336698 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Wow! 188,000 of the 290,000 is Birth/Death Model. Wow!

Too bad those are Phantom jobs and only available to Comic Book characters.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:02 | 336777 20smoney
20smoney's picture

Sorry for the 101 question, but could someone explain the Birth/Death model?  Thx

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 00:28 | 337687 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

in polite terms, the birth / death model is a statistical device to account for job creation and destruction insensitive to official data gathering techniques. the statisticians use time series and regression factors to postulate that some job creators and destroyers are actively at work.....it stems from the idea that small businesses - especially micro businesses - are the source of the bulk of new jobs. yet because of their sizes, they do not show up in official data sets....hence they need to be modeled into the data.

in less polite terms, in the hands of demagogues, it is a tool of deceit and lies. read john williams' account of how the bush crime syndicate got ibm to inflate quarterly sales to falsify gdp numbers in the early 1990s. now if large companies are subject to lying, it is de rien de tout to deceive regarding a modeled entity.

the birth / death model is a liars' dream. it is theoretically plausible and justifiable but it is oh so maleable to assumptions and modeling specifications which are difficult to uncover or even plausible. thus the ventriloquist can make the dummy say anything it wants....this is why having the non-seasonally adjusted data is so important.

you should also be aware of margin of error but i won't go into that topic here.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:45 | 336699 Tart
Tart's picture

188K jobs added from birth death model

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:48 | 336703 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"290K of which census was 66k and Birth Death was 188k. Hurray -the economy added a real 36k in jobs in April."

This says it all right here. The pumping has reached unsportable levels of frantic activity. Market futures weren't too impressed either.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:05 | 336729 Shocker
Shocker's picture

hahah, I think your right. I mean you can't continuely lie to people everyday and expect them to believe theses numbers. People look around daily, most know things aren't even close to better or getting there. I see around here all the stimulus money is drying up and full state construction jobs coming to a halt.

 

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:08 | 336737 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Where the hell is Biden's 500k per month?

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:21 | 336793 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

forget the 500K, where the hell is Biden.  Never mind.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:51 | 336711 docj
docj's picture

FEB and MAR revised upward, too.  Possibly even believable - I know my company (about 900 people globally, high tech software), which is notoriously conservative with hiring, has re-opened about 15 positions out of the roughly 50 that were advertised in OCT 08 when hiring was frozen (and has been since).

Interestingly, I'm told that the flow-in of resumes hasn't been nearly as strong as HR suspected.  Then again, I live/work in the expensive, politically backassward and recently flooded-out Northeast US so that may be a factor.

Still can't see how any of this is sustainable given that the Fed.gov has pretty much blown it's entire arsenal to get a pretty darn modest uptick in NFP - at least 100K of which (over the last two months) is temporary Senseless work.  But, might as well enjoy watching this dead feline bounce once more, I suppose.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:53 | 336716 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I wasn't sure where to post this question...Just wondering if this 100-ton concrete and steel box doesn't work in the Gulf of Mexico, do you think we could recycle it and use it to cover the US Senate to stop the hundreds of thousands of gallons of shit that are spewing out of that place?

 

ON THE GULF OF MEXICO (AP) - It's never been tried before, but crews hope to lower a 100-ton concrete-and-steel box a mile under the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday to cut off most of the hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil spewing from a blown-out well.

If it works, the system could collect as much as 85 percent of the oil that's been leaking from the ocean floor after the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded April 20, killing 11 workers.

 

N

 

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:56 | 336720 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

It would be a great torture chamber for someone..

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 13:26 | 336961 tpberg7
tpberg7's picture

Excellent idea Miss Ex,

Anything that will stop the shit-spewing bastards in DC!  We will all drown in this conflagration if it is not stopped soon.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 00:31 | 337691 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

i would be happy to use the box to bury alive every single us senator next to the leaking pipeline.....

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:55 | 336718 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 Please , please somebody that can give me a very quick  example of birth/death in the nfp report.What does it mean..I know you guys are very busy but I would appreciate an example.I do not understand it.....

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:02 | 336727 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

The NFP reads payrolls in a sample of businesses and then extrapolates to work out the national total.  The missing piece of info is how many businesses are there, so they make an estimate of the number of new (i.e. birth) an failed (i.e. death) businesses they need to adjust by.  So birth/ death applies to employers, not employees....

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:57 | 336826 joe.schmuck
Fri, 05/07/2010 - 12:58 | 336913 Oso
Oso's picture

Long story short, B/D is what the govt assumes was created in the small-business world. 

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:56 | 336721 Stuart
Stuart's picture

One wonders what happens when the census is complete... or do they stay on govt payrolls forever.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:09 | 336739 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

The government will send them out to do a census on the how many four leaf clovers are growing on America's lawns...  they'll be busy for a long time...

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 08:59 | 336723 Kina
Kina's picture

Everything I say to you is a lie, except for the truth I am telling you now, that I am honest.

Thats the new normal to negotiate. There is so much dishonesty about that something is now just as likley to be a dishonest as honest, and you would be best served to assume dishonest until truth is shown.

 

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:03 | 336730 Postal
Postal's picture

The snow must have melted...

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:05 | 336734 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I don't understand. Goldman Sachs took OTHER PEOPLES MONEY. And ran like a screaming teenage girl in a stupid horror flick. It's not even thier own damn money and they punked out. What good does this payroll bullshit do to bolstering confidence when the only thing setting the level of the market is a bunch of bald assholes who's spincters are constricted like a boa constricter trying to squeeze kill a chunck of highest rockwell hardness tungsten producible.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:10 | 336742 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Maybe a few s&p large contract traders were added?
Did you hear the audio from the pit? unreal.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:18 | 336748 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Is the black box hooked up the HFT algo matrix?

Seems to be.

 

Hasn't the birth/death model consistently added jobs through out this rough patch, then come December the BLS goes and we're adjusting the total -875k or a bizillion just so the don't make a complete and utter ass out of themselves?

 

Where ever the BLS got their black box from ... they should give it back. Just sayin'.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:35 | 336757 ColmF
ColmF's picture

Dear Tyler

Births and Deaths are in there for a reason. When you fail to mention why you take from your argument.

Why not mention the relatively obvious positive bias in the figures from the formulae used for seasonal adjustment by the BLS? The bias that comes from the inability of the formulae used to handle the sharp falls in Payrolls in 2008/2009.

This bias will go to a big extent next month, will return for the June figure, and then disappear.

Kind regards

Colm

 

 

 

 

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:38 | 336761 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

B/D + Census = 85% of the total

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:43 | 336764 jhslaw
jhslaw's picture

No one can know the truth anymore.  It is all propoganda.  I wonder what the spin will be when the "shadow" foreclosure inventory starts to hit this fall.  There are thousands and thousands of seriously delinquent loans being sat on and not referred out for foreclosure right now.  The next wave starts in July and will continue through 2011. 

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:57 | 336774 purple
purple's picture

If you want to get people fired up, start breaking it down by religion. And yeah, there are big differences.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:57 | 336775 purple
purple's picture

If you want to get people fired up, start breaking it down by religion. And yeah, there are big differences.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 09:59 | 336776 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

If I'm not mistaken, President Obama said that many of the people whose livelihoods are impacted by the Gulf oil volcano will have 'new' federal jobs helping clean up the mess. Totally brutal. And...we'll give all of the public school teachers who love THEIR jobs over the next several years 'new' federal positions cleaning up the fruit juice boxes and other shit on the school playground. Hey...we can bring unemployment down to 5% if we are fortunate enough to get a few more big disasters!

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:03 | 336778 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

lose, not love

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:08 | 336782 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

At this rate, in the 2011 B/D revision, the revision will be negative one million plus jobs.

Like the S&P yesterday, some time next year, nearly the entire prior year's rally in employment numbers will disappear near instantly when the BLS publishes the B/D correction.

 

 

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:12 | 336784 docj
docj's picture

Still, we are curious how the Chairman will not be forced to discuss tightening after this B/D adjustment inspired number (188K in April B/D, 81K in March).

I shudder to think what horrific sodomy Benron must be performing on the long-abused USD right now to keep her poor head below 85 on the DXY.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 10:23 | 336796 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Here we go again! Bring your seats and tray tables up! Turn off your cell phones and lap top computers. Don't jump when the masks fall.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 12:36 | 336902 Gimp
Gimp's picture

It's all propaganda news now. There are houses near me that have been empty for almost three years and they do not show-up on any data. the banks are doing their best not to show any deliquent properties, the truth will not be shared with the masses. Liberal thinking for "you can't handle it, let us take care of you idiots".

Gets tiresome but this is the new norm. Achtung Baby! now go and live in your own "Private Idaho".

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 13:07 | 336925 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

This shit is getting out of control - note these two articles:

Why a Rising Unemployment Rate is Good News

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Why-a-Rising-Unemployment-usnews-341062548.html;_ylt=AjZlPP195JPLhzOhXwmJDo.7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1b3J1a3N2BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawN3aHlhcmlzaW5ndW4-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Jobs up 290,000; jobless rate rises to 9.9 pct.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobs-up-290000-jobless-rate-apf-560235210.html;_ylt=At1I.a7AbVAIa3ZpodBAeRG7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1MDhtNGJvBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNwYXlyb2xsc3Jpc2U-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

If I am supposed to believe these articles, it's good to have more unemployment because jobs were created. Even though 805k people decided to start looking for jobs again? How the fuck do you measure that? I thought these people were added to the unemployment number because unemployment insurance was extended again. I don't know but this just doesn't measure up to me.

 

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 13:15 | 336942 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up over the month, reaching 6.7 million. In April, 45.9 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-12.)

Given how businesses incorrectly consider those people damaged goods, wouldn't that be a self-sustaining number?

Short of a legal kibosh on the practice (and any indirect tactics used to do that), that's about what it is - a self-sustaining number.

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 14:33 | 337018 ska11153
ska11153's picture

Does anyone know how they handle all the recent unemployed college graduates? When do they get added to the work force?  And do they end up showing up as unemployed since they are newely entered and won't be receiving unemployment benefits etc?

Fri, 05/07/2010 - 14:36 | 337021 ska11153
ska11153's picture

Does anyone know how/when the recent unemployed college graduates get added to the work force? Further, how are they accounted for since they will not be eligible for unemployment benefits etc?   I know the BLS stats are way way way off, but just curious about this.

 

Thanks

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 00:36 | 337696 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

funny you should ask since this came up during our current events session in history class.....i don't have precise answers but college students entering the labor force are considered unemployed and i believe that they are sampled in. unemployment benefits recipients form only a part of the unemployment number. just understand that the 2 main unemployment numbers are u-3 and u-6 into the first grouping should be college students unless they take part time work making them a u-6 number.

Sat, 05/08/2010 - 03:37 | 337768 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

Posted May 1st - a week before the crash.

 '11,250 / 300 is an area of significant resistance and if this level can’t be breached it should signal the end of the March 2009 bear market rally - the weekly DOW chart shows an expanding wedge indicating a significant move is probable - this remains an overbought bear market rally and the uptrend could falter at any time - the VIX index continues to give bullish warnings which is bearish for equities - long term charts of key equity indexes continue to give bearish warnings and the March 2009 lows will be breached in my opinion - USD Index bullish warnings since 2009 on the weekly and monthly chart have not changed and further USD strength and thus EURO weakness is still expected '

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

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