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30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Stuck At All Time Lows, Does Nothing To Stimulate Housing Demand
For a vivid example of how pointless QE1 was (and QE2 will be), look no further than the 30 Year FRM fixed: the mortgage rate is now at the lowest it has ever been, at 4.57%, for the second week in a row, and housing is unanimously double dipping. The problem is that the Fed has no more incremental mortgages to buy, so QE 2 will likely be all about other assets. Yet with USTs also at or near all time tights, there is little point for the Fed to bid up Treasuries. Which is why QE2 will be all about risky assets: the Fed will find a way to go all out and bid up stocks. Although, as today indicates, and as we first posted earlier, all the idiotic market needs is some totally groundless rumor of a reserve interest cut to go from down 1.5% to up in the span of an hour. All the Fed needs to do is pull a Radioshack, and keep leaking day after day that it will bid up $5 trillion in AAPL stock and watch the Dow hit 36,000 tomorrow as all the HFT go nuts with frontrunning each other, all the while Goldman keeps on betting against all of its major clients (and praying it will be correct this time).
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any reason for the turn around in market?
makes no sense
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Democrats-to-give-jobless-apf-1521010382.h...
Nah - that was baked into the cake weeks ago, when the Maine dimwits signed-on to this latest give-away of someone else's yet-to-be-earned money.
Only a matter of time before either Nelson caved or WV got their Senate seat-warmer sworn-in.
Ah, well. Just the normal 1400 spree, I suppose.
Being self employed, where do I sign up for that "free" money they're voting on?
The Bureau of Making Shit Up sez you don't count.
So, become a W-4 debt-slave like the rest of us and get on board the Soul Train!
If you pay yourself a salary and pay UI on those wages, you can file a claim.
That is their excuse for the day but the real damage being done is by the 99'ers expiring and the 400+ being added for well over a year now. Nothing can stop deflation at this point unless banks give anyone with a heartbeat a loan which they were just taken to task for doing for the past decade..It would be borderline hilarious if it was not so frightening and in our face middle class destruction to keep assets as inflated as possible. They truly have learned nothing and at this point it is so blatant I can only assume they play ignorant and know full well what they are doing and this is widening the gap between the top 2% and the rest of the nation.
Besides it is not like they are without a paycheck and we have no rioting in the streets yet so they will continue upon the path until something shocking occurs. What motiviation do they have to stop? What do they fear? There is no system of checks and balances..just a small group of politcians and elites who want to continue their way of life for as long as the serfs permit them. What concern does Ben Bernanke have about the nations debt? He is an oldman like the majority of our supposed protectors and entrusted defenders of the consitution he will be long moved on in a few decades. It is complete ponzi and a game of "let it be the next generations" problem and those who inherit will want to play the same game.
I think we all here however are betting that the can has reached a brick wall.
It is interesting. Our profligate pols are absolutely screwing the snot out of the young Americans who will be paying for this bullshit via decades of gubmint enslavement.
ARE YOU 24 YEARS OLD? YOU ARE FUKCED, FUKCED, FUKCED. ARE YOU PISSED?
Yet the youngins are not yet up in arms, as the large majority of them were drinking the Progressive KoolAid and swooning to Obama's empty rhetoric, to the point of joyfully voting for the fool.
Allow me to put it in terms you can relate to: When you wake up, you are in for the Mother of All Hangovers, one that will last through your working decades. Obama views you as a worker. In fact, he openly calls you a worker. You work for him. Get to work.
$309 for Jobless benefits ///My God....thats a lot..u guys are lucky ....even if i go there and work i wont get 300 dollars a week.......
Uh, the Fed rumor. Now it's AAPL earnings. There's no volume so go hit the golf ball, hit the strip bar, or do like the brokers:
Mug an elderly old lady.
Looks like they started a few hours ago. This ramp job is incredible! Bad earnings and stocks are bid up like crazy today.
Why doesn't the FED just buy all the homes, stocks, and treausuries available in the United States and Europe?
Ahhhh....they have.
Without a government subsidized down payment (more than the down payment on the median home with an FHA 3.5% loan - did we learn anything?), why would anyone want to buy a home at the moment?
They won't have to work to pay for it, or hell pay for it. Default & get another one
Maybe bargain hunting?
Mind you your thesis must be that homes have near-bottomed.
I was in FL last weekend near Fort Meyers and i have to say... wow @ the real estate there. I cant speak of other states which i read and hear about all the time...but seeing for myself what is mentioned by numerous posters is something else.
I would love to scrape up some extra $ and buy some rental property in the area.
Yes, I've heard that you can buy a <decent> tract house in Fort Meyers for $50-75k. That might be the bottom for that market. Around Seattle, the same house would be $300-500k depending upon location. Not near bottom. Perhaps we'll get to Ft. Meyers prices? I do not think we've have come close to bottom on national prices.
Are homes 1x-2x annual incomes yet? ..then we don't bottom. We need more to strategically default.
Why/how is TOL now $5 a share at most yet?
Because algos are ping-ponging it back and forth. That's why.
And market ramps! :-))
Will refi at 3%.
I have my finger on that trigger also.
I wouldn't buy the over-priced crap around here with a 0% mortgage.
Dunno. If I got 1.5% (more than the discount window rate) I could afford quite the spread [which, tangentially, would shore up those mark-to-fantasy valuations the banks have on the books]. Of course, that would leave out the leech banks from "earning back" from their incredibly bad decisions of the last 10 years.
For QE2, since mortgages are out of the question, will the government go to individuals garage sales and buy their "assets"? Junk is junk right? If that is the case and I can utilize mark-to-unicorn, I will sell them some junk..er.."assets" for $15M.
P.S. Google finance's index charts took a dump right when the pump was getting underway. Does Google know it is BS?
That little thingie you have in turkeys that pops when it's done, well, the one in Homebuilding just popped. Stick a fork in it.
With all this bad news today in conjunction with the past few months, it's no doubt that SRS will be up big today... Finally!
Err... Wait a minute...
I give up.
We live in a world were seemingly almost everything is overvalued including the measuring stick (US dollars). How do we know if the market is overvalued/undervalued fo sure when there are no constants. 5 Trillion in new casino money would make almost everything look cheap again. Maybe this is the real reason for the volitility in all markets.
No place to run. No place to hide.
Umm - as for real estate - how about those property taxes. Its as high as 3% of property value in many parts of the country. So a 300K house , prop taxes of 9K. In a zero interest rate world, the capitalized value of the endless stream of property taxes would be what ? Say at a discount rate of 3%, that 9K/yr is worth about ...hmm 300K !! So the true cost of the house is closer to 600K.
Yeah property taxes are the killer.
makes perfect sense actually ... this is what happens at the end of a pump&dump, everyone looking at eachother asking the same question ... we're in the eye of the storm right now ...
I have a mortgage they can buy.....
07-20 19:21: Afternoon market rebounding on Fed excess reserve cut "chatter" 07-20 19:27: Rumors of Fed rate cut on reserves "almost certainly untrue," CNBC reports Up on bull, but not down reasoning, yet.If you want to stimulate the economy put more money in my pocket. Either give me a raise, improve my benefits, or cut my taxes.
I guess I should get my Phd because I naively belief that housing prices will only grow with incomes and/or expected equity gains from appreciation. Both of which are still going south.
OK the fed slowed up the depreciation of the latter by taking ownership of close to 10% of the total value of the US housing market. Maybe with QE2 they will actually buy houses above market and drive price appreciation. Worked for the equity markets.
Not even a dozen blowjobs from the hot women selling the houses who are moonlighting at high end strip clubs.
Why the fuck is anybody gonna take out a new mortgage when its cheaper to just default on the one they already have?
New home buyers? Right crawlin' outta the woodwork.
Howz abouts them folks gone thru restructuring and remediation. 80% re-default rates. John Q Public pays for their jingle mail, they extend living in the place by 36 months (18 mo. average foreclosure effect).
The private sector is de-leveraging.
And our friends in DC think they're gonna inflate their way outta this shit?
MV=PT and nobody doin' the V thing these days.
Whata great fuckin' country!
We are soooooooooooooooooooooo screwed.
Spent humongliod hours in discourse with strangers over past few days, schedule and activities demanded such. Without bringing up subject of economy, people were openly expressing not just angst, but fear. It is Not Good out there.
Soooooooo screwed.
Ok, so what's the lowest rate you can get on a 30 YR? 4% unless you call your lender and ASK FOR OFF SHEET PRICING? So maybe they're willing to tip a hat at ya for 3.75 or 3.875.....I doubt it, the greedy SOB's and 15 YR??....well it's not even worth breathing for until it goes to 1 or 2%, cause they're still lying to us anyway. Yeah Taxes....what are those???? Yeah Income....Hey I have a 3 yr history of receiving my unemployment now, whoohoooooooo! AND TO ALL YOU BABY BOOMIN CRAZY PENSIONERS WITH YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY AND 800 CREDIT SCORE....DON'T THINK THEY'RE AFTER YOUR MONEY....AFTER YOUR BLOOD, THEY'RE TAKING YOUR LAND, GOOD LUCK WITH GRABBIN ANY NO CASHOUT REFI'S WHEN THE RATES HIT ZERO2ATRILLION....CAUSE YOUR STILL HOLDING THE DEFICIENCY BAG! What A Legacy! How much is estate tax on DEBT?!
EDIT: 599 IS THE NEW 800, sorry!