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Another Hole In The Bond Bubble As 30 Year Gets Reacquainted With Gravity
Following today's ugly 5 Year auction, and hot on the heels of the 180 degree EUR reversal from this morning, coupled with the renewed surge in gold and silver, the entire bond complex is again in free fall (and no, Build America Bonds has not and likely will not be renewed in its current form), lead by the 30 Year. And if this was based on an expectation of real rates rising, as the pundits would claim, which would be an expectation of economic improvement, then gold would not be flirting with its all time highs. Which means that today's market action in every asset class is representing the economy accurately, especially following the 4th consecutive home price drop be Case Shiller... every asset class except for stocks of course. Then again, with volume once again abysmal (MVOLNYE just under 1,400), HFT/Fed levitation programs are the only thing that is trading 100x P/E hot grenades as per always.
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Quick nurse, I need a POMO stat!
$10 billion mg.
in the ass of course.
LOL
Of course. Would they have it any other way?
Now where is that emergency tube of K-Y I keep handy?
Definitely bring our own KY to any function involving the Fed. Lord knows that Benny and Co. will only use their KY if they can throw a handful of sand in it first.
A very large move ( 0.25% in a single session), on the 30 year long bond, that should have created a LOT of financial commentary, speculation as to the 'meaning' or 'portents'....first i saw was HERE
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates...
However, HERE, shows it took ONE MONTH to go from 4.25 => 4.50% why the major discrepancy ?
He's Dead Jim!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJQwHwP0ojI
My Favorite: "It was worse than dead. His brain is gone!"
With Gold and Silver pushing the highs and 30 yr bonds pushing the lows, Bernanke's balls are in a proverbial vise and he'll soon be handed a razor to set him free.
Nice visual.
They'll make a movie of it of course and it'll be set in a cave in Utah.
Not to worry...these are not the droids you are looking for...The Ben Bernank will fix everything.
"All hail Ben"
Have you met his bud Dover?
He will complete the process in the usual manner.
All the reporting all the chatter about this and that truly means nothing, all that matters is the trend. It's all rigged for now to the upside people. You might as well turn off your TV, stop searching for financial news as it's all meaningless.
That's right.. and Uncle Ben made sure of that trend with QEII in Nov.. ohhh wait... nevermind..
just buy the fucking dip
"just buy the fucking dip"
I swear to god I am going to spray paint that on the bernank's tombstone. Mind if I add "bitchez" just to let everyone know where it came from?
The PMs often peak on Tuesday. I ask all those trading metals to read this:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/take-some-profits.html
'Trading' metals? No I dont trade PM's, buying them as at least some measure of safety against this entire disaster around us.
I hear ya, SheepDog. There are some, however, who are making a few fiat by trading options and mining shares. Today or tomorrow would be a good time to lighten a little.
I just bought a 100 ounces of silver today, from APMEX, me thinks Silver and PM's will end the year at higher highs.
i believe your behavior will continue to be replicated and your predictions realized.
Oh ya this reminds me, your blog, why do you write stuff by hand on it? More curious than critical..
Zero, some folks seem to really like it. I've been told it gives the site some "humanity". I don't know about that but I've kept doing it because its easy.
So, do you also take a picture of the chart(s) on a wooden table, digitize them, and fax them to your website? (long-standing joke on http://thedailywtf.com/).
Charlotte Isertbyt is an Jones, so I am putting gold on hold. What a day though eh Turd!! What do you think about my call last night for miners, I am sure you read it before the move ;)
I will read that post later on the Turd's Watchtower Blogosphere Spot.
Turd, are you picking up any buzz from the LME? We live in interesting times....
with all due respect, Turd, i like your blog a lot, but this strategy will work until it doesn't; then, where to get back in?
we are nearing a new year, which brings with it new portfolio allocations from all types of investors. it is difficult for me to believe these portfolio changes will include less precious metals.
in other words, back up and realize that you should only be adding to long positions on technical sell-offs at certain times. the 'fundamentals' are still intact, and the 'technicals' will continue to be used as a means for weak hands to transfer positions to strong hands.
...don't grow a brain, my friend.
and keep up the great work!
Just think what we'll be spending on debt servicing as rates climb for the Treasuries (and of course munis, corporate bonds, etc). And as fatigue climbs the supply increases. A toxic mix. What a cocktail TPTB have concocted.
NO problem at all for bullshit equities, as they correlate to absolutely nothing anymore! Well, enjoy because that wont last much longer.
...especially following the 4th consecutive home price drop be Case Shiller...
And as Reggie Middleton points out, Case-Shill doesn't show the real (more negative) picture, because the model leaves out a ton of inconvenient data.
Did Reggie mention the Richmond Fed number that blew away estimates and is showing some impressive strength in manufacturing?
Did Reggie mention strong retail sales figures reported today?
Did Reggie mention that he's been dead wrong on AAPL as it continues to hit new all time highs?
You sound a little desperate. Rates got you spooked, bullie?
Hey tough guy, leave my nephew alone. He is up 3% YTD in his practice Forex account this year which is about 20% better than my mentally-challenged son.
Hey but Wanger is beating the margin spread on his over priced Chinese junk he sells at those stores.
Oh yeah, Harry is beating his margin all right. No one spends that amount of time informing everyone how stupid they are without a marginal Woodie in hand.
Marginal woodie? Is that SDS? small dick syndrome?
So Harry...
Manufacturers are producing more goods; while inventories build because consumers are slowing their purchases; all the while margins are getting squeezed.
And this is supposed to be good news???
geez, Wanker...get a life
Wanker, don't you really belong on the
Yahoo message boards circa 2000?
He was there along with Douchinger before Douch got pissed off and took his marbles and went home because he was constantly having to argue with other people who had varying opinions.
Harry will only see the truth when "The Bernank" stops the flow of debt based liquidity... and it shouldn't take the new Tea Party Congress long to pull that off.
I wouldn't count on it too much. The Tea Party is a small subset of the Republican Party and the Republican Party isn't much changed since '08 when they bailed out the bankers and handed us the bill.
To: dwdollar
on Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:58
"The Tea Party is a small subset of the Republican Party and the Republican Party isn't much changed since '08 when they bailed out the bankers and handed us the bill."
The Republican campaign platform for 2012 has been delineated and it is, literally, a giant stone statue come to life. A plodding re-reun we’ve all seen many times, every voter knows this Mesozoic melodrama by heart.
In “Tax Cuts R Us” a dinosaur, trickle-down tax policy hooks up with some ruinous pork barrel borrow and spend initiatives and they spend the rest of their lives trying to escape another lethal round of GOP deregulation of the financial markets.
The message of this antediluvian, ‘booty flavored rice ball’ is simple in the extreme: A hideous creature has taken over people's minds and the result is a demented GOP mockumentary called “Tea Party Agitprop: Change You Can Believe In”.
nice commentary
notice how the Rethug Senators vote for the Obama program, which is basically "death to the people"
the Tea smokers were infiltrated by manipulative statists ever before their first big ralleys
voting, Ron Paul and the Tea Scammers will change nothing, except the flavor of hopium/divide and conquer on the Sunday morning shows
Then what?
The damage has been done. Trying to unwind this mountain of debt with max. pain and suffering through taxation and higher rates would even make the tea baggers run for the hills in Alaska where they probably belong.
Good grief.
The fucking problem is entitlement, socialism, unfunded liabilities, fantasy budgets and so on.
Unless the tea bagger's great plan is to destroy all society as we know it, they have no other options but to keep with the program and "pretend and extend".
FYI. Tea baggers are going to put the next fucking war loving, war making President in the White House.
That is the fucking strategy all along. Just follow the money and see who is funding the tea baggers.
Are you really that stupid that you need to get DUPED again?
You certainly seem to have been duped. Are you on the Nobel peace prize awarding committee?
I just saved $200 on car insurance!
or dbl post
Here's a clue for you, free of charge
The same people that made it their concerted effort to put George W. Bush into the WH are now pumping the propaganda of the tea baggers.
Politics are like the market and the parties including the tea baggers are like stocks.
The tea bagger IPO was quite remarkable. The promo efforts were great and well sown.
People are taking the bait just as they took the bait on GWB. The rise of GWB, Karl Rove's ministry of propaganda and the surge of "reborn" Christians and mega churches in the US were not a coincidence. The churches campaigned for GWB and made an effort to rally the American "faith based" community for a stupid and expensive war that served only one purpose.
Sorry kiddo, but that's how the cookie crumbled. I have to admit though, their propaganda was darn well packaged and executed.
Now, having said that. I don't need your lecture on the community organizing duh-dolt President that is probably less American than the teleprompter he needs to spew his propaganda.
It's all the same.
i have to tell you, I support the tea party entirely, but i agree with your analysis to some degree. Yes, there are powerful forces that are seeking to hijack and derail the movement.
the military industrial complex is making a Lenin-esque powerplay to protect themselves.
however, there is a libertarian element to the tea party which is anti-war. further, a great deal of tea party supporters are simply for smaller government (reduced federal powers/laws/intervention) and a return to a society that more closely represents that which is outlined in the U.S. Constitution.
of course, none of this matters as long as we remain enslaved within a debt-based monetary system.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/plot-enslave-you
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/ongoing-chinese-national-debt-regardless-...
Many of your points are indeed true, except one. The real Tea Party was not created by the Republican machine, nor have they been co-opted by Rove and Co. yet. Time will tell if they will be able to win the battle of principles over the politics of DC, but give them a chance!
Have you actually hauled your butt out of your barcalounger and gone out to a local Tea Party meeting to see who these people are? If not, I suggest you do, because other than the childish "tea bagger" epithets, your words could easily have been written by any number of the Tea Party patriots I know, including myself.
Did you know that there are probably 2-3 million so-called Tea-Baggers out there? We are much more than just the rag-tag handful of chump candidates that we just sent to Congress. The core of the Tea Party is made up of like-minded people that have decided to do something about the travesty that has passsed for a Federal Government for too long. Most importantly, we don't care who gets credit for the changes to government as long as they happen. This is why the current Administration, the radical left and the media hate us so much. We are the kryptonite to their radical socialist adgenda, cover-ups and collusion. It is funny too, that there are many Republicans that hate us as well, because to us there is no differencec between a crooked "R" and a crooked "D". We are upsetting the apple cart for all the dirty politicians in DC.
The "opinion" that many Americans, like you, have about us was carefully crafted and served up slanderously, courtesy of the feckless sophists at organizations like; Time, NYT, MSNBC, Jon Stewart Show, etc. It's time to see the propaganda for what it is, and realize who is actually on your side and who is not.
Bullshit. You've been co-opted, and you don't know it. Pathetic.
Are you aware that, earlier this month, Tea Party National President Judson Phillips practically begged Sarah Palin to become the chair of the GOP, replacing Michael Steele? Her "superstar" status was suppose to breathe some life into the GOP. Wait!...I thought the Tea Party was disenchanted with Republicans, too! Let me guess, you didn't know that, right? Even Faux News made sure that fart stayed under the covers - little too much truth for the good American folk who think they're getting their country back.
Here's the actual letter:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/12/heres-an-idea-sarah-...
There is always an endless amount of hypocrisy coming from the Tea Party, but I think this might be my favorite (this month, anyway), as Tea Party leader Phillips begs Palin to help the GOP:
....you are a superstar. You have an unbelievable ability to light up a crowd and to raise money. Both of which the Republican Party needs. Something is really wrong with the GOP when the RNC cannot fund a get out the vote campaign for mid-term elections. The GOP needs a conservative who can raise money and energize the troops. You are the only one out there with these unique talents.
You may have some idealistic vision of why you're standing in line at Sarah Palin's book signing, but don't think for a second that your Tea Party movement isn't carefully managed by the Invisible Hand (Kim Phillips-Fein's words) of right wing billionaires like Lucifer Murdoch and the Koch brothers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/29/opinion/29rich.html
If you're truly independent of the Republicans and Democrats, why does the Tea Party continue to associate with Sarah Palin (paying her $100,000/speech, or begging her to lead the GOP) and Glenn Beck - the biggest disinformation specialist on television?
If you guys ever want to be taken seriously, you need to stop using the most absurd charlatans on television as your mouthpieces. Start talking about real issues, rather than Hitler, Stalin, death panels, eugenics, birth certificates and that American Unions are responsible for QE2.
The Republicans knew that their party was in total disarray after the Bush abomination. Lots of reasonably minded right-wingers (yes, I know - oxymoronic) were wondering around the political landscape without a party to attach themselves to. And viola! The Tea Party becomes real, or so they think. The Tea Party is just a fringe group of wayward sheep that have been corralled by conservative idealism, faux constitutionalism and rhetoric that borders on lunacy. They have been corralled - unwittingly - back into the Republican party, where they supposedly belong. The puppet masters like Murdoch know that the more disenchanted citizens that temporarily ride on the coattails of the Tea Party movement, the more eventually fall off and land on the "right" side of the fence - exactly where they were in 2000, 2004, and most of Bush's last term. The Right stays intact.
I can appreciate your desire to change the status quo in American politics, but the Tea Farty affiliate of Faux News isn't it - and, truthfully, that's all you've got.
?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muHg86Mys7I
"even today, there is little value in ensuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it." - President John F. Kennedy
------
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/personal-word-wikileaks-and-political-pri...
So, what's your "solution?" Vote in more Decepticrats?
Solution? None. Let them eat themselves.
Move to Norway. Live a humble, yet peaceful, life. Make just enough money to pay for the things I need, and spend my weekends jumping off cliffs in a wingsuit:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4U6T_BB1N8
Check out 2:04. Nuckin' Futs!
one of these days you may wish to have children, RNR. then you will want to find more solutions so that you can help ensure that they prosper. In the meantime, have a great time jumping off cliffs, mate!!
the Rethug Party and the Democoms Party will be ushered into the dust bin of history in short order, and they will replaced by "I want to be a slave party" in the Corporate slave matrix
this lipstick on the Rethug pig is pretty funny, as the sheep still want to believe they haven't cashed out their last chips
don't waste your time on this Shakespear for the sheeple, because it is a waste of your time
time to get down to serious business , and prepare
Must have been very challenging for Douchinger not to have the BAN button at his disposal and actually have to defend his arguments.
He used to ban people for Peak Oil arguments in 08, now IEA comes out and says we peaked in 2006 LOL
Shut it ShitBanger. Sell a soap dish or whatever you do.
The Richmond FED number is meaningless as manufacturing is 10% of the economy.
Then there is this: “You are still in a relatively tough slow environment for retailers,” said Michael Dart of Kurt Salmon Associates in an interview. “There’s no real-income growth to support continued growth. Consumers are still somewhat tightening their belt. Retailers are going to battle for market share."
Good luck on your home accessories.
Equities will be pushed as long as QE lasts. It is not the price- it's the value of the dollars it is redeemed in that counts.
Haven't you finished your survey yet?
We need to constantly remind ZH'ers that Harry is here for some sort of survey, which he then writes about on other blogs. So, his presence here mocks ZH'ers and the real economic pain being suffered in the country.
On your comment, I wonder how many consumers buying out there are maxing credit cards in preparation for that final default. Could this xmas be the last 'gasmic pump before the debt hits the fan?
IMHO, the retail numbers reflect buying of sale items where margins are non-existent. If people were buying all out, inventories would not be increasing in every report. Said reports continue to show an increase in input costs and the inability to raise prices- meaning a margin squeeze.
As other commentators here have mentioned, it is this margin squeeze that will create more small business closings and more unemployment- further diminishing the market of buyers for anything retail. Even Walmart is sounding the alarm.
While some people are maxing out credit cards, other studies have shown people to be protecting their credit card and letting the mortgage go. So, I'm not ready to go there yet.
Finally, the numbers indicate high unemployment, but at least 75% remain full employed. These people will still be spending. It will require dire straits before Xmas succumbs to the economy at large. Even when frugal, America goes balls to the wall for Xmas compared to others.
While you are correct regarding america's defense of the x-mas splurge, lots of people are starting to realize that it's not the gifts that make the season. Actually, for last years x-mas one of my aunts gave all of my generation the same gift--1 orange. And my grandmother teared up as we all learned that when she was a kid during the first great depression, the orange was a christmas family tradition because our family was poor and you didn't have easy to come by food, let alone something as tasty as a fresh orange.
That lesson stuck with us and christmas was very much subdued in terms of gifts this year but much heavier on time with each other even though my family enjoys a lifestyle better than most.
I have been giving an orange to my family members for the last 30 years. It was especially appropriate because of the need for vitamin c in winter as well. Glad to hear your traditions are becoming more family friendly. Our Xmas was much more subdued also and yet, very memorable.
Harry,
I'm not even going to list all the reasons why (let me know and I'll bore you with them), but this is a bubble, being blown PURELY by Bernanke's insane scheme of pumping up stocks with QE. When this goes (and it will) the 'crisis' of 2007/2008 is going to seem like chicken feed.
DavidC
Hungry bears like me know its just about mealtime.
As the Dow continues its climb to 13K and beyond. I am waving the white flag. Robo and Harry and Ben are right. The market cannot be allowed to fall. Buy the fucking dips -- assuming they even allow dips in the future.
No doomer austrian economists have been bearish on stocks. Its the currency and bond markets that austrian economists have been ultra bearish about.
Dips hahaha no such thing. Just like there is no such thing as a down stock market. This is a new era of Fed run markets were every day is an up day. Free markets are just to risky.
Stocks could go a looooong way: If the bond market is like an elephant, then the stock market would be like a pimple on that elephants arse.
Everyone knows by know that the bond market is corrupt and riddled with overcomplicated paper that is not even traded in a market to facilitate the scamming. If at some point many people act on that knowledge, there are basically two kinds of investements left that are "uncomplicated"; Stocks and Treasuries (Owning large amounts of physical metal is complicated IMO).
When a large proportion of the elephants mass runs for the zit on the end, that thing will GROW!
buy the fuckin' dip!
I think I'm going to have to call a top here guys.
Not at 1265? Quibbling, I know.
I note only the Dow is really up. They're
havin some troubles with the dogshit
indexes, POMO or not.
Hey Wanger, look at that cliff, my my...........
I own PMs and stocks, the 30yr is of no interest to me other than telling me people are moving out of bonds into PMs and stocks. Both of which are good for me.
Yes, rising rates are good for stocks. That's why the Bernank is using QE2 to drive rates higher. lulz.
Shut your shit hole ShitBanger.
What happened? You took a silver eagle for a bath mat in desperation?
Nah. Someone showed him a pre 1984 penny and told him it was made of copper. Harry thought he'd hit the jackpot and handed over a 36 piece baby blue master bath towel set in exchange for 6 "coppers".
Made out like a bandit in his mind.
It's beyond me why you are getting junked.
The currency is in the crapper.
You know that paper that has a PROMISE on it from someone, somewhere to honor the deed.. LOL
Stocks are sexier than cash. End of story.
A flight into cash is NEVER EVER going to happen again.
time to back up the truck on TLT....."c'mon back" James Cramer
You mean TBT/TMV?
Anybody may try to convince me there's not going to come a QE3 soon to support QE2...
come on!
anybody?
Can't we just start calling it QEN to make life simple? You know, like QE^Nth...
Cooter
OK....well, for one, we are already broke. So we wouldn't dare spend money we can't afford. Right?
Two...the economy is picking up most finely, I hear the TeeVee telling me that all the time. Xmas spending was just wunnerful in The USA.
Buy Bonds. Support the (Wall Street) Troops. In zerO we Trust.
MCP implode, or what?
Has anyone seen my son? I know he has been spouting off about Best Buy and it is getting slammed today. Harry, is he with you?
"Which means that today's market action in every asset class is representing the economy accurately, especially following the 4th consecutive home price drop be Case Shiller..."
all asset categories are being re-priced relative to silver and gold - accept this fact and act accordingly or watch your wealth dwindle away to worthlessness over the next few years
Benron must be actually trying to tank the bond
market, so the PDs can move all the
junk equity they are holding. I don't think
it's gonna work.
Dip buying going wild.
The harder bonds sell off, more money piles into stocks, like Zale's Jewerly, up from $1.50 to $4.00.
Even the bond funds are going to be tempted to buy stocks.
20 years worth of interest gained in one month by dryhumping an overshorted retail stock..
LOL....
Stocks still falling when priced in gold. Another tough year for riverboat gamblers. LOL...
Commodities just won't quit. Another tough year for real people. LOL...
No future in this system. Meltdown in progress. LOL...
Pimco's moves are everywhere and Gross' is taking the lead - again.
Someone yelled "Fire" in the bond theatre..
Read this by Hussman today:
"
So neither side typically taken in the debate over the Fed's Treasury purchases is particularly satisfying. Fortunately for fans of logic, there is a third explanation that is much more plausible, and has the benefit of having data behind it. Despite my extreme criticism of Fed actions in recent years, I would argue that QE2 has in fact been "successful" over the short-term, but not through any monetary mechanism. Rather, QE2 has been successful a) by creating a burst of enthusiasm that released some pent-up demand in the same way that Cash for Clunkers and the new homebuyer tax credit did, and b) by encouraging investors to believe that the Fed has provided a "backstop" for stocks and other risky assets, creating a speculative blowoff in these securities, to the detriment of what investors perceive as "safe" assets, which ironically includes Treasury securities.
In short, the main effect of QE2 has not been monetary but has instead been rhetorical - and that rhetoric may very well be nearly empty."
Good food for thought.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101227.htm
US Census Bureau News Thursday, Dec 23, 2010 - New orders for man. durable goods in November decreased $2.6B or 1.3 percent.....down three of the last four months.....Inventories..up eleven consecutive months, increased $1.9B or 0.6 percent......
Manufactured Smurfs sitting in inventory appreciate in value while waiting to be sold ;-), LCD TV's too, no?
Going down like like a clown,,like a clown!!
Whats going down? I see green.
yeap, the up arrows are being pressed.
Without requiring bloomberg professional account, is there an alternitive symbol than ^TV.N?
What the US Treasuries need is a major DHS Threat Level raising event to get folks scared back into bonds. Look for it at around 3.888 for the 10 year.
Tyler, have you finally seen the light? Have you finally given up your bond bull bias? The bonded complex in f@#$%ed, NOT because of inflation or bullish stock sentiment, but because the USA is SYSTEMICALLY bankrupt. Bonds can and will fall with stocks. The catastrophic meltdown of the dollar and bonds may be only months away. Gold will go to the moon accordingly.
TLT getting slammed, man what a move this has been straight down from 108.
The Fed is buying bonds...not enough perhaps? Or are they trying to get a better deal and chase money out of them?
uh, "buy the dip"?
(Reuters) - Allstate Corp has sued Bank of America Corp and 18 other defendants over alleged losses on more than $700 million of mortgage securities it bought from Countrywide Financial Corp.
Bank of America is lucky laws don't apply to them...
Bill Gross PIMPCO buy munis with his own money! Now that I've been reading ZH, first thought that came to mind is: The Bernank is going to bail out CA,municipalities.
Bill's just advertising for the greater fool to show up and buy his overstock supply of munis.
The only difference between penny stock pump and dump boiler room operations and Bill Gross (and every other money manager who is a "guest" of CNBC, Bloomberg etc) is the scale and the legality. The process is exactly the same.
I was getting around to that as my second thought CD, honest! But it's the thought (I smell a rat) that counts. Hehe.
Tyler, it would only be appropriate to feature the HFTs as the heroes of this week's exchanges which would have been DOOB (Death on Opening Bell) if it wasn't for super computers churning socks in the absence of all living traders.
For crying out loud, the mayor has all but declared a state of emergency and urging people to stay indoors. 5th Ave is a big bowling alley.
So, be nice and paint a pretty picture of "The Day that HFT saved the world (markets)".
the big 30s crash was bonds going down with stocks...I think they led to some degree.
Well, all indicators are pointing to a "correction", right??